Turkey took a leading role in supporting Azerbaijan military efforts in Nagorno-Karabakh – European Commission

Public Radio of Armenia
Oct 21 2021

Turkey took a leading role in supporting Azerbaijan military efforts in Nagorno-Karabakh, providing military assistance, intelligence and weapons, and reportedly support through foreign fighters, the European Commission said in the 2021 Report on Turkey.

As a consequence, the report said, relations with Armenia did not improve.

The Commission also reminds that Canada cancelled export permits for military goods and technology to Turkey following the results of an investigation into allegations that Canadian technology was being used by the Azerbaijani military forces in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

It noted that hate speech and hate crime remain a serious issue for minorities. Acts of vandalism and destruction on minority worship places and cemeteries need to be investigated.

“State subsidies for minority schools had almost come to a halt. Subsidies to the newspapers run by members of the Armenian, Greek, and Jewish communities need to be granted by the Press Advertising Authority (BiK). The court case against public officials involved in the killing of Armenian journalist Hrant Dink in 2007 ended in March 2021 with the acquittal of 37 of the 77 defendants. The files of 12 defendants who fled Turkey were separated because they could not be heard in this trial,” the report said, noting that “full respect for and protection of language, religion, culture, cultural heritage and fundamental rights of minorities in accordance with European standards have yet to be achieved.”

The Commission also stresses that Turkey needs to increase substantially national investment to clean mined areas along the border with Syria, Iraq, Iran, Armenia as well as inside Turkey

Armenian Summit of Minds kicks off in Dilijan

PanArmenian, Armenia
Oct 23 2021

PanARMENIAN.Net – The third edition of the Armenian Summit of Minds kicked off in the town of Dilijan on Saturday, October 23. The event is being held under the auspices of President Armen Sarkissian, with the Monthly Barometer analytical newsletter and the Central Bank of Armenia serving as key partners.

Titled Global Transformations in the New Quantum World, the event commenced with a dialogue between President Sarkissian and former Italian Prime Minister Romano Prodi

This year’s discussions at the Armenian Summit of Minds focus on geopolitical changes in the world, in the South Caucasus region, and artificial intelligence. Among the participants are former Heads of State, heads of reputable international expert-analytical centers, organizations, tech companies, professors of prestigious universities, including Former Argentine President Mauricio Macri, Former Swiss President Micheline Calmy-Rey, President of the Skolkovo Foundation of Russia and the President of the World Chess Federation (FIDE) Arkady Dvorkovich, First Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Committee for CIS Affairs, Eurasian Integration and Relations with Compatriots Konstantin Zatulin, Director of Division on Investment and Enterprise, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) James Zhan, Deputy Director of Yandex Tigran Khudaverdyan, legendary athlete Roger Grace and others.

Foreign Minister receives new UNICEF Representative to Armenia

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 13:21,

YEREVAN, OCTOBER 22, ARMENPRESS. Minister of Foreign Affairs Ararat Mirzoyan received today newly-appointed Representative of UNICEF to Armenia Christine Weigand on the occasion of presenting her credentials, the Armenian foreign ministry said in a statement.

The FM in his remarks appreciated the 27 years of activity of UNICEF in Armenia aimed at protecting the rights of children. He in particularly highlighted implementing different programs and initiatives aimed at improving child healthcare and education.

The meeting sides discussed the UNICEF’s 2021-2025 program document for Armenia.

They also discussed the humanitarian consequences of the 2020 war launched by Azerbaijan with Turkey’s support against Artsakh. Minister Mirzoyan emphasized the necessity of UNICEF’s more active engagement to ensuring the security, education and other rights of the children affected by the conflict.

 

Editing and Translating by Aneta Harutyunyan

BBC Music Magazine explores enduring influence of Komitas

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 16:22,

YEREVAN, OCTOBER 22, ARMENPRESS. BBC Music Magazine has published an article by Michael Church about Komitas.

The author explores the enduring influence of Komitas, the composer and pioneering folk-collector whose career met a brutal end.

The author says that all Armenian musicians perform Komitas’s folk-song arrangements or make their own arrangements of the songs he collected. “When Armenians around the world gather on 24 April, Armenian Genocide Memorial Day, to commemorate the 1.5 million of their countrymen slaughtered by Turks in 1915, it’s Komitas’s songs they sing. In a memorable YouTube clip from last autumn’s Armenian-Azeri war, an Armenian cellist plays a haunting Komitas melody in a ruined Armenian church. For Armenians, music is memory, and in times of trouble Komitas speaks for the nation”, Michael Church says.

Michael Church says the output of Komitas “was very modest – 80 choral works and songs, arrangements of the Armenian Mass, a few dances for piano – yet he is universally regarded by Armenians as the founding father of their classical tradition”.  “As the flamboyant Khachaturian put it, with uncharacteristic humility: ‘Komitas’s music is of such stylistic purity, its language so sublime, that it is impossible to pass it by, impossible not to feel its closeness or refuse its influence”.

“During his brief period of celebrity in Berlin and Paris – before the Genocide swallowed him up – one of his most fervent admirers was Debussy, who declared after a Komitas concert that on the basis of one single song he deserved to be recognized as a great composer. And it’s significant that eminent pianists reverentially perform Komitas’s little piano suit”, the author notes.

PM Pashinyan, Ambassador of France discuss bilateral agenda

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 19:00,

YEREVAN, OCTOBER 22, ARMENPRESS. Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan received Ambassador of France to Armenia Anne Louyot.

As ARMENPRESS was informed from the Office of the Prime Minister, Nikol Pashinyan welcomed the Ambassador and congratulated her on the appointment. “Much can be said about the privileged relations established between our countries, all with positive accentuation. When I think about the relations between France and Armenia and try to answer the question, what can we do in the context of those relations, I get an unequivocal answer that we must be able to strengthen our cooperation in the economic sphere, because in other spheres we have done everything or are on the way of doing everything.

And I think this is very important in terms of strengthening our political relations and making them more effective. I am glad to note that the President of the French Republic, my friend Emmanuel Macron, seems to also have the same idea,” Nikol Pashinyan said.

The Prime Minister stressed the role of France in terms of the OSCE Minsk Group Co-chairmanship, the effectiveness of the Nagorno-Karabakh peace talks, and the settlement of the conflict. “Welcoming you once again, I hope that in the context of these issues, renewed intensity will be manifested as a result of your appointment; the rich agenda we had in the past will also be marked with new achievements,” the Prime Minister said.

Ambassador Anne Louyot thanked the PM for the warm reception and said, “Armenia is not just a regular country for the French Ambassador. It is a very serious responsibility for me to be the Ambassador of France to Armenia, taking into account the long-term nature and intensity of our relations, as well as, Mr. Prime Minister, your personal relationship with the President of our country”, Anne Louyot said, conveying to the PM the warm greetings of Emmanuel Macron.

The Ambassador assured that during her activity she will do everything to give new impetus to the political and economic relations of our countries. Anne Louyot added that in coolaboration with the Government of the Republic of Armenia it is planned to develop a “road map” of joint actions and programs in the near future.

The Prime Minister emphasized that the Armenian Government is interested in the involvment of French companies particularly in various infrastructural programs. The interlocutors discussed issues related to Armenia-EU relations, including the implementation of the 2.6 billion euro program package for Armenia, cooperation within the framework of the Eastern Partnership program, and the continuous advancement of democratic reforms in our country.

The sides also exchanged views on the intensification of the negotiation process on the Nagorno Karabakh conflict, the importance of the forthcoming visit of the OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs to the region, and the processes taking place in the South Caucasus.

Asbarez: The Armenian Saga Continues in Brazil

The Vardan Travel tour group at the Dourian Armenian school

BY CATHERINE YESAYAN

The idea of traveling to Brazil came to me during my trip to Armenia, where I learned that Vardan Travel was taking a group to Brazil. After several years of visiting different countries and writing about their respective Armenian communities, it was time for me to explore Brazil.

I signed up for the excursion during my visit to Armenia, then returned home to the United States. A month later, I headed to Brazil to join the group in São Paulo, the country’s most populous city.

Before I continue to tell you about the Armenians of Brazil, I will provide a brief history of the country.

Brazil is the “longest” and fifth largest country in the world. The land now known as Brazil was inhabited by several tribal groups before the arrival of a Portuguese explorer named Pedro Alvares who, in 1500, claimed the area for the Portuguese Empire.

Brazil remained a colony of Portugal until 1815, at which time the colony was elevated to the rank of kingdom under a constitutional monarchy. Brazil’s current constitution was framed in 1988, and it is now defined as a Democratic Federal Republic.

The Armenian community of Brazil, after Argentina, is the second largest in Latin America. It is estimated that there are between 50 to 70,000 Armenians living in Brazil. They have maintained a strong presence in the city of São Paulo, as is evidenced by the two churches—a Catholic and an Apostolic one, a few Armenian community centers, and a radio station. There is also a metro station named “Armenia.”

Members of the Brazilian Armenian community have been involved in the country’s political realm, and there are even a few well-known artists and actors who represent Armenia’s ethnic contribution to Brazil’s cultural landscape.

The three most recognizable Armenians from Brazil include: actress Aracy Balabanian, actor Stepan Nercessian, and University of São Paulo President Vahan Agopyan.                

One of the earliest Armenian immigrants to Brazil was Rizkallah Jorge Tahan (1868 to 1949) who arrived to Brazil in 1895. He was fleeing the massacres of Armenians in the Ottoman Empire. Back home, Rizkallah had learned the trade of copper smelting, a skill which he brought to this new country.

The story goes that Rizkallah made a fortune through melting copper. His success lies in the fact that he discovered a market niche that was untapped in Brazil. He would melt copper and manufacture items.

Riskallah’s business evolved into manufacturing of bathroom items, such as siphons, pipes, valves for water tanks, etc. Three years after his arrival, at the age of 20, Rizkallah opened “Casa da Boia,” a hardware store in downtown São Paulo, for building materials. The building still exists and is considered a historical landmark. In 2018, the store celebrated its 120th anniversary. The Casa da Boia is still a family business—now run by Mário Rizkallah, his grandson. 

Rizkallah later became an accomplished builder. He made his mark by erecting at least six architecturally significant buildings in the center of São Paulo. Riskallah supported the Armenian community in many ways, such as providing aid for new immigrants.

When I research about potential Armenian communities to visit, I try to find members of that locality to meet and learn about the challenges, opportunities, history, and culture unique to that area. Prior to landing in Brazil, I connected with Sarkis Karamekian on Facebook, and he arranged for someone to pick me up from the airport.  

I arrived in São Paulo, at five in the morning. After being picked up by the ride Sarkis had arranged, I was at the hotel around 6:30 a.m., where I had asked for an early check-in. I had enough time to have breakfast and sleep to regain my energy. Having started my trip a day before at 10:30 a.m. (L.A. time), I was quite exhausted. I had first flown from LAX to Miami, and later taken a red eye from Miami to São Paulo. Altogether, I had been on the road for 16 hours with no chance to sleep.

Casa De Boia — the hardware store built by Rizkallah Jorge Tahan in 1989

Later in the afternoon, Sarkis met me at the hotel where we had the opportunity to sit down and chat. Sarkis was born in São Paulo to Armenian parents. His father was an immigrant from Syria, but his mother was born in Brazil. Since he was a young boy, he had patriotic sentiments toward Armenia.

 “At the age of 20, I wanted to fight for Armenia in the first war of Armenia and Artsakh,” said Sarkis. Today, he is actively involved in several Armenian causes. In 2006, he started an Armenian radio station. He has also created a foundation to support Syrian Armenian children who have recently arrived in São Paulo — about 300 kids. His heart is so close to the issues that affect the Armenian community both in the Middle East and in South America. To list all his good deeds, I would need to write a separate column exclusively about his work.

Our group of 80 people from Yerevan arrived at the hotel around 7 p.m., with two buses—a double decker and a regular one. The following day was a Sunday. Our itinerary started with a visit to Paulista Avenue, which is the financial and cultural heart of São Paulo. The headquarters of several financial and cultural institutions are located on this fabled street. Paulista Avenue is also known to be the first paved street in São Paulo, having been paved in 1909. 

On Sundays, Paulista Avenue is closed to traffic and people can walk its 1.5-mile length. There are towering buildings displaying stunning and unique architecturally designed buildings on both sides of the street. It was a true pleasure to have the opportunity to walk that street.

Later, we visited two more sites, and then the tour continued to the Armenian Apostolic Church of St. George in São Paulo. The church was built by Rizkallah in 1948. It was one of the most ornate Armenian churches I’ve visited in the Diaspora.

The spacious interior of the church was decorated with exquisite wall paintings and stained-glass windows. The Diocese welcomed us with a special liturgy, followed by a dinner. We visited the Armenian Genocide memorial, which was right across from the church. 

Adjacent to the church was the Armenian National Dourian school, which was founded 94 years ago. Today the school has 120 students from kindergarten to 12th grade. We visited some of the classrooms, which were truly impressive.

After our visit to the church, we boarded our buses and went to the Armenian Club to have dinner. The Armenian Club is equipped with tennis courts and a swimming pool and accommodates other sports, as well. The club has about 200 members.

The following day – on Monday morning – we boarded our buses to depart for the spectacular Rio De Janeiro. Perhaps the most breathtaking city in the whole world, where urban planning blends with the splendid views of the hills emerging from the ocean and the beaches. 

In Rio De Janeiro there were no Armenian traces to follow. However, we experienced the many attractions and sightseeing options available there. The tour had also organized a few excursions to areas outside of the city, such as a coffee plantation, swimming with fish and a trip to the historic city of Petropolis. 

I must add that our stay at the Sheraton Hotel of Rio De Janeiro was a true delight. It happened that our hotel was the only hotel in Rio that is right next to the beach. It was very convenient. We took the elevators down and the beach and the swimming pools were right there. In all other hotels of Rio, you must cross a street to get to the beach.

This was indeed a wonderful trip.

Asbarez: Senate Committee Calls for Continued U.S. Aid for Artsakh De-Mining

Senate urged to earmark $2 million for Artsakh de-mining

Proposed FY 2022 Foreign Aid Bill Would Continue to Block Arms Sales to Erdogan’s Bodyguards Following 2017 Attack on Washington DC Protesters

WASHINGTON—The Senate Appropriations Committee called for ongoing U.S. aid for Artsakh de-mining and expressed concern about unrest in the Caucasus, in its version the Fiscal Year 2022 foreign aid bill presented Monday, reported the Armenian National Committee of America.

“The Committee recommends up to $2,000,000 for humanitarian de-mining and UXO clearance activities in areas affected by the 2020 fighting in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, subject to prior consultation with the Committees on Appropriations,” stated the report accompanying the Senate FY2022 foreign aid measure.  It went on to note that “the Committee remains concerned with the protracted conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and requests the Secretary of State to consult with the Committees on Appropriations prior to obligating assistance made available under title IV of the act for Armenia and Azerbaijan.”

“We are deeply troubled that to date USAID has provided only $2.5 million in new aid to meet the needs of the 100,000 Armenians displaced from their indigenous Artsakh homeland by an Azerbaijani army which has received over $120 million in U.S. military assistance,” said ANCA Executive Director Aram Hamparian. “Armenian American will continues to work with Appropriations Committee members to expand life-saving U.S. assistance to Artsakh while demanding the enforcement of Section 907 restrictions to end U.S. support for Azerbaijani aggression.”

Pro-Armenia and Artsakh advocates can urge their U.S. Senators and Representative to zero out military aid to Azerbaijan by visiting 

The Senate’s proposed FY2022 foreign aid measure, for the fifth consecutive year, blocked any U.S. arms to President Erdogan’s elite bodyguard unit, which, under Erdogan’s orders, brutally beat peaceful U.S. protesters in Washington, DC on 2017.  Senators also called on the “Government of Turkey to immediately release the remaining locally employed U.S. Embassy employee, and to dismiss the false charges against him and two other locally employed staff whose cases are on appeal.”  The Committee went on express its concern about “widespread arbitrary detention and abuse of the judicial process in Turkey, as well as reports of torture and other mistreatment of detainees.”

The U.S. House version of the FY2022 foreign aid bill, adopted on July 28th, calls for not less than $50 million in U.S. assistance to Armenia, “for economic development, private sector productivity, energy independence, democracy and the rule of law, and other purposes.”  It urges not less than $2 million for de-mining activities in Artsakh.  The recommendation for U.S. assistance to Armenia is over twice that requested by President Biden in his FY2022 proposed budget, which remains silent on U.S. assistance to Artsakh.  It also includes an ANCA-backed amendment, led by Congressional Armenian Caucus Co-Chair Frank Pallone (D-NJ), which restricts U.S. foreign military financing and training assistance to Azerbaijan.

The ANCA shared its FY2022 Armenia and Artsakh assistance priorities with Senate and House Appropriations Committees earlier this year.

Azerbaijan’s Aliyev is a Strategic Liability, Not an Asset

The National Interest
Oct 22 2021

Aliyev may be a dictator, but Western denial of Azerbaijan’s new reality and neglect of his increasing belligerence promise a far bloodier future for justice and democracy in the region than he does.

by Michael Rubin

lham Aliyev, President of Azerbaijan for nearly eighteen years, sits atop a mirage. Azerbaijan’s capital Baku exudes wealth. Luxury boutiques like Bulgari, Christian Dior, Gucci, and Trussardi line Neftchiler Avenue across Primorsky Park from the Bay of Baku. Luxury hotels like the Four Seasons, Marriott Absheron, and the Hilton Baku overlook the cornice. Car dealerships showcase the latest Rolls Royces, Lamborghinis, and Ferraris. Azerbaijan is hardly the only country to sport such an ostentatious display—Persian Gulf emirates do as well—but the wealth extremes among Azeri citizens are greater, as anyone who has bypassed the official tours to see the mudbrick houses and shantytowns outside the capital can attest. While those associated with the Aliyev family and his inner circle might afford Baku’s luxury goods, most city residents, including the educated and professional class, barely scrape by. Travel an hour or two outside the capital, and the situation is even worse.  

Azerbaijan is among the world’s most corrupt countries; Transparency International ranks Azerbaijan with Russia, Mali, and Malawi. In contrast, neighboring Armenia sits alongside Greece and Slovakia in the rankings, while Georgia scores even better. The recent Pandora Papers exposé showed that family members of senior Azeri officials had bought or sold tens of millions of dollars of luxury real estate.

Politically, Azerbaijan remains an authoritarian dictatorship. Freedom House assesses that Azeris living under Aliyev’s dictatorship enjoy less freedom than Palestinians struggling under Hamas rule in the Gaza Strip and Houthi repression in Yemen; Azeris enjoy fewer civil liberties than the Chinese under President Xi Jinping’s repressive rule.

Why the West Ignores Azerbaijan’s Reality

Western states have ignored Aliyev’s corruption and repression for a variety of reasons:  

The United Kingdom shields Azerbaijan at international forums because of British Petroleum’s interest in the country’s energy market. While China’s trade with Azerbaijan has historically been only a fraction of Great Britain’s, Beijing’s ambitions in Azerbaijan are quickly growing, which ironically makes China and the United Kingdom allies in the United Nations Security Council offering blind support to Azerbaijan, when the United Nations considers issues involving the South Caucasus.

Israel, meanwhile, has long-standing ties with Azerbaijan that are rooted in the arms-for-energy trade. During last year’s Nagorno-Karabakh war, Azerbaijan used Israeli drones against both civilian and military targets to turn the tide of the war after ethnic Armenian forces in Nagorno-Karabakh rebuffed the initial Azerbaijani invasion.  

Traditionally, both Israel and the United States also value Azerbaijan for its strategic location and willingness to allow espionage, if not full-fledged operations, against the Islamic Republic of Iran. While the mostly Shi’ite Azerbaijan once sought to distinguish itself from theocratic Iran to its south, in recent years, Aliyev has played the issue both ways: coasting on Azerbaijan’s past reputation while increasing his ties with Iran (and Russia), recent disputes with Tehran notwithstanding.

Azerbaijan’s reputation for religious tolerance and secularism also attracts many Western supporters. Certainly, Azerbaijan deserves praise in this regard, though the myth does not live up to reality. While Azerbaijan has generally protected its Jewish community, Aliyev’s government has long targeted Azerbaijan’s Christians, in some cases by erasing centuries-old cultural property like the graveyard in Julfa that Azerbaijani troops systematically destroyed. More recently, Aliyev’s cooperation with and tolerance for Syrian jihadi mercenaries, whom he used in his fight against Nagorno-Karabakh’s Armenians, raise questions about his outlook. In many ways, Aliyev appears to be taking a page from Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s playbook: Distract the West with paeans to the secular past while quietly co-opting, if not promoting, religious extremists to act as policy proxies. When countries have embraced such tactics, the result has been blowback that harmed the standing of religious minorities. Azerbaijan’s subordination of its foreign policy to Erdoğan’s—even allowing Turkish diplomats veto power over Azerbaijani engagements—should raise questions about Baku’s tolerance and the ability of Israel and the United States to leverage Azerbaijani territory for other strategic pursuits in the near future.

Beyond the strategic reasons for ignoring Azerbaijan’s reality, there is also the reality of caviar diplomacy and golden parachutes. Azerbaijan pays well. The regime spends lavishly on gifts, luxury hotel suites, and dinners and provides access to those who parrot official positions and, more importantly, refuse to research or consider counterarguments. Some Israeli officials openly talk about how they hope to enter the Azerbaijani business scene after retirement. Former American officials might be more discreet in what they say, but their actions do not substantively differ.  

Aliyev’s orientation should raise questions for any honest analyst, but, what really makes Azerbaijan a strategic liability, is Aliyev’s increasing unwillingness to live within Azerbaijan’s borders. This problem goes beyond disputes with Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh, the contested territory recognized by most countries as Azerbaijani territory, and extends to Aliyev’s territorial claims over Armenia proper, which the Azerbaijani dictator has increasingly voiced over the past decade.

For example, on November 20, 2012, Aliyev said, “Armenia as a country is of no value. It is actually a colony, an outpost run from abroad, a territory artificially created on ancient Azerbaijani lands.” The following year, Aliyev gave a speech in which he promised not only to retake Nagorno-Karabakh but also all of Armenia. “Azerbaijanis will live on their historical lands in the future. Our historical lands are Irevan [Yerevan] and Zangezur regions,” he said. He returned to this theme on January 22, 2014, during a visit to Ganja, Azerbaijan’s second-largest city, when he described Armenia as “historical Azerbaijani lands” that his countrymen will eventually regain. While Minsk Group diplomats pushed a land-for-peace and security deal, Aliyev promised Azeris that an Armenian withdrawal from Nagorno-Karabakh and the adjacent districts would only be the first phase of a final solution.   

At Nowruz celebrations the following year, Aliyev tripled down on the theme. “The Armenian-Azerbaijani Nagorno-Karabakh conflict must be settled only within the framework of Azerbaijan’s internationally recognized territorial integrity,” he said, then added, “after that, we will return to our ancient lands—to Yerevan, Geicha, and Zangezur.”

While successive secretaries of state took Aliyev at his word when he promised to settle his disputes with Armenia diplomatically, Aliyev did not try to deceive his home audience. Speaking in the central Azerbaijani district of Terter in December 2016, he explained, “Today, we are not claiming any in the modern Republic of Armenia. We do not intend to reclaim Yerevan, Meghri, Goris through military force but I’m sure that time will come, and we, Azerbaijanis, will return to all our historic lands,” He then promised, “The main factor [for success] is strength. This is true. We live in the real world. So we have to become even stronger, to create a more powerful army.”

In recent years, especially as his economy has stagnated or declined against the backdrop of falling oil prices, Aliyev has increasingly turned toward revanchist claims to distract the public from his own mismanagement. During a speech to his New Azerbaijan Party, for example, Aliyev claimed that Yerevan, the territories of Lake Sevan, and the province of Syunik, also known as Zangezur, are historical Azerbaijani lands and that their return was a “strategic and political goal.” During a Baku military parade after the Azeri victory in the most recent Nagorno-Karabakh war, Aliyev called Yerevan, the capital of Armenia, as well as Armenia’s Syunik and Sevan regions “historical lands” of Azerbaijan. Such rhetoric dashes hopes for peace. Just last month, Aliyev threw cold water on Armenia’s request for talks about the status of Nagorno-Karabakh, warning Armenians that they should refrain from raising the subject since Azerbaijan has more historical grounds for claiming parts of Armenia like Zangezur and Lake Geicha.

It is one thing for Azerbaijan not to have diplomatic relations with Armenia—that can be rectified—but it is quite another to reject Armenia’s right to exist.

A Perfect Storm

Family fiefdoms seldom succeed in countries without formal, institutionalized monarchies. Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak fell when he tried to promote his son to power. Likewise, Muammar Gaddafi fell as he tried to have his son Saif succeed him. Hafez al-Assad’s son Bashar did come into power, but Syria ultimately paid a far higher price as it descended into civil war.

For dictators, the problem with multi-decade rule is that political scapegoats are in short supply. For example, Erdoğan cannot blame his predecessors for the corruption and economic mismanagement that drained Turkey’s foreign reserves and crashed its currency. For all of Azerbaijan’s hydrocarbon wealth, the per capita income of Azerbaijanis is actually less than that of Georgians and Armenians, the latter of whom subsist under a Turkish-Azerbaijani economic blockade. While the citizens of Gulf emirates arguably accept a contract in which they sacrifice freedoms for wealth, the comparison between the Gulf states and Azerbaijan falters because ordinary Azeris receive little in exchange for political pliancy.

Azerbaijan now faces a perfect storm. As Aliyev seeks to promote his wife and son to succeed him, ordinary Azerbaijanis grow increasingly frustrated with their plight. They also see the cost of Aliyev’s Nagorno-Karabakh victory: infringement on Azerbaijani sovereignty by Russian and Turkish troops. Aliyev sponsors trips for foreign officials and some Azeris to recaptured areas of Nagorno-Karabakh, but few Azeris who originate from the territory are prepared to return permanently, given the region’s lack of jobs and their new roots in and around Baku. In effect, Aliyev wants to spend billions of dollars on infrastructure and Potemkin ghost towns that few Azeris want to reside in permanently during a shaky time for  Azerbaijan’s economy, the rise in oil prices notwithstanding.

In this situation, Aliyev’s only recourse will be like that of Iraqi president Saddam Hussein’s in 1990—to distract and play the nationalist card. Aliyev may believe Armenia is weak, but no invasion of Armenia proper will be limited to the two states. Any attack on Armenia proper will draw Turkey, Russia, and perhaps even Iran into the fight, creating an immediate crisis for the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Even if aggression brings no outside intervention, an Azerbaijani conquest of Armenian territory will not solve but rather delay the solving of Azerbaijan’s internal problems, weaken its economy, and set the cycle on repeat.   

On the other hand, if Azerbaijani pressure forces Armenia to sacrifice some sovereignty for security and enter a broader security alliance with Russia, the United States and NATO would soon face ramifications elsewhere. Russia would use Armenia as an example to push other former Soviet states—not only in the Caucasus and Central Asia but also in the Baltics—into a new Russia-dominated union.

Aliyev may be a dictator, but Western denial of Azerbaijan’s new reality and neglect of his increasing belligerence promise a far bloodier future for justice and democracy in the region than he does. At issue is not simply some theoretical dispute between two small states but the West’s strategic position against retrograde forces like Russia, Iran, and jihadism that want to reimagine the post-World War II liberal order.

Michael Rubin is a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.

Armenian authorities dissatisfied with Ombudsman’s activity, official says

PanArmenian, Armenia
Oct 22 2021

PanARMENIAN.Net – Authorities in Armenia are dissatisfied with the activity of Human Rights Defender Arman Tatoyan, Security Council Secretary Armen Grigoryan said Thursday, October 21, according to Rusarminfo.

Grigoryan weighed in on the Ombudsman’s political position, maintaining that Tatoyan “distorts the reality” and “behaves like an oppositionist”.

“He has several months left before he can engage in more obvious political activity. His term expires, and I am sure that the ruling [Civil Contract] party will propose a new candidate for the post of Ombudsman of the country,” Grigoryan added.

Tatoyan on Thursday published evidence of the Azerbaijani military’s reinforcement on Armenia’s territory, following a statement from the Defense Ministry denying Tatoyan’s earlier claims. The Ombudsman said authorities have embarked on a campaign to discredit his activity, and that the Secretary of the National Security Council has now joined it.

Azerbaijan conceals actual number of captured Armenians and places of their detention, FM says

Panorama, Armenia
Oct 22 2021

Armenian FM Ararat Mirzoyan stated on Friday that the immediate repatriation of Armenian prisoners of war and captured civilians held in Azerbaijan remains a priority. In the words of Mirzoyan, Azerbaijan continues violating the provisions of the Geneva Conventions and the trilateral statement from November 9, 2020, creating artificial barriers for returning the captives. As the press department at the foreign ministry reported, Mirzoyan’s remarks came at a meeting on Friday with Gilles Carbonnier, the Vice President of the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC). 

Mirzoyan attached importance to the ICRC mission in Artsakh as the only international organisation at present operating in the region and providing assistance to the population suffered as a result of the Azerbaijani aggression. According to the minister, despite proofs presented by the Armenian side, Azerbaijan still conceals the actual number of captured Armenians and places of their detention which is an indication of cases of forced disappearances. 

During the meeting, the ICRC delegation expressed readiness to continue their support to the RA authorities in overcoming the post-war humanitarian issues.