Author: Emil Lazarian

                                        Monday, 
Armenia Posts Double-Digit Growth
Armenia -- Workers at a newly opened textile factory in Yerevan, Novemer 1, 2019.
Armenia’s economy grew by 12.6 percent last year on the back of soaring trade 
with and cash flows from Russia, according government data released on Monday.
The Armenian government’s Statistical Committee registered the sharpest gains in 
trade and other services that generated more than half of the country’ GDP worth 
almost 8.5 trillion drams ($21 billion). The services sector excluding trade 
alone expanded by over 28 percent, according to it.
By comparison, Armenian industrial output grew by about 8 percent while 
agricultural production was flat in 2022.
Armenia was initially expected to be hit hard by the barrage of sanctions 
imposed by the United States, the European Union and other Western powers on 
Russia, the South Caucasus nation’s leading trading partner, following the 
Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Russian-Armenian trade fell in March but recovered strongly in the following 
months as the Russian economy proved more resilient than expected. It almost 
doubled to $4.4 billion in January-November 2022, accounting for more than 
one-third of Armenia’s overall foreign trade.
Armenian exports to Russia nearly tripled to just over $2 billion in the 
eleven-month period. They most probably included goods manufactured in third 
countries and re-exported from Armenia to Russia as a consequence of the Western 
sanctions.
According to the Armenian Central Bank, individual remittances from Russia to 
Armenia quadrupled to almost $3.2 billion in January-November 2022. Much of that 
money is thought to have been deposited in local banks by tens of thousands of 
Russians who relocated to the South Caucasus country after the outbreak of the 
war in Ukraine.
Visiting Yerevan in October, Russian Minister of Economic Development Maxim 
Reshetnikov described Armenia as “one of the beneficiaries of the resetting of 
Russia’s economy and flows of goods and services” resulting from the sanctions. 
His then Armenian counterpart, Tigran Khachatrian, acknowledged Russian money’s 
“significant positive impact on our current economic activity.”
Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian and his Russian counterpart Mikhail Mishustin 
praised the surge in bilateral trade when they met in Kazakhstan early this 
month. Mishustin suggested that Armenia can take even greater advantage of an 
exodus of Western companies from Russia.
EU Starts New Monitoring Mission To Armenia-Azerbaijan Border
        • Nane Sahakian
Belgium - European Union flags flutter outside the EU Commission headquarters in 
Brussels, September 28, 2022.
The European Union announced on Monday the launch of a new and more long-term 
monitoring mission to Armenia’s volatile border with Azerbaijan which is 
strongly opposed by Russia.
It said that the 100 or so monitors sent by various EU member states will strive 
to “contribute to stability in the border areas of Armenia, build confidence and 
human security in conflict affected areas, and ensure an environment conducive 
to the normalization efforts between Armenia and Azerbaijan.”
“The total -- exclusively civilian -- staff of the EUMA [EU Mission in Armenia] 
will be approximately 100, including around 50 unarmed observers,” the EU added 
in a statement.
It did not specify whether the other members of the two-year mission will carry 
weapons. Recent news reports said that the EU monitors will include officers of 
the German police and the French gendarmerie.
The EU already deployed 40 civilian monitors to Armenian border areas in late 
October on a two-month mission agreed during an Armenian-Azerbaijani summit in 
in Prague. The agreement followed the September border clashes between Armenian 
and Azerbaijani forces which left more than 300 soldiers dead.
Armenia - EU monitors visit Gegharkunik region, October 18, 2022.
The Armenian government asked for another monitoring mission in late December, 
saying that it would lower the risk of fresh armed incidents on the 
Armenian-Azerbaijani border. The EU formally granted the request on January 23, 
drawing criticism from Russia as well as Azerbaijan.
The Russian Foreign Ministry claimed that EU monitors “can only bring 
geopolitical confrontation to the region” and accused the EU of seeking to “push 
back Russia's mediation efforts at any cost.”
Earlier in January, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov rebuked Armenia for 
refusing a similar mission offered by the Collective Security Treaty 
Organization (CSTO) during a November summit in Yerevan.
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian declined the offer on the grounds that 
other members of the Russian-led military alliance refused to condemn 
Azerbaijan’s offensive military operations along the border.
Pashinian gave another reason for the rebuff on February 8. He claimed that 
unlike the EU, the CSTO does not recognize Armenia’s current borders.
Armen Baghdasarian, an Armenian political commentator, said Yerevan should take 
the Russian criticism very seriously.
Armenian - Russian border guards stationed in Syunik province are inspected by 
Russian Ambassador Sergei Kopyrkin, May 24, 2022.
“Russia will want to show that the EU mission is not effective and that security 
mechanisms proposed by the EU don’t work,” he told RFE/RL’s Armenian Service. 
“The shortest way of showing that is [to provoke] new clashes on the 
Armenian-Azerbaijani border which the EU observers cannot influence in any way.”
Baghdasarian suggested at the same time that the EU monitors could prevent 
another large-scale Azerbaijani attack on Armenia in the coming months. But he 
was skeptical about their longer-term impact, arguing that the EU has not given 
Yerevan any security guarantees.
Pashinian indicated on February 8 that the European observers will also be 
monitoring Russian troops stationed in his country. He said Azerbaijan has told 
Western powers that its “aggressive actions” are a response to increased Russian 
military presence there.
“Our Western partners started rebuking us that ‘you are planning aggressive 
actions because there is a buildup of Russian and Armenian troops planning to 
attack Azerbaijan and the poor Azerbaijanis have to seize [Armenian] border 
heights to counter that threat.’ We said, ‘OK, come and monitor on the ground 
and see if that is true,’” Pashinian added in remarks denounced by his domestic 
political opponents.
Karabakh Leader Rejects Aliyev’s Condition For Talks
        • Ruzanna Stepanian
        • Karlen Aslanian
Nagorno-Karabakh - Ruben Vardanyan, the Karabakh premier, addresses a rally in 
Stepanakert, December 25, 2022.
Nagorno-Karabakh’s leadership has rejected Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev’s 
condition for direct negotiations between Baku and the authorities in 
Stepanakert.
Speaking during the Munich Security Conference at the weekend, Aliyev said he 
will agree to such talks only if Ruben Vardanyan, the Karabakh premier, resigns 
and leaves “our territory.” Vardanyan is a “criminal oligarch” who was 
“smuggled” to Karabakh from Russia, he told a panel discussion with the prime 
ministers of Armenia and Georgia.
Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian did not react to Aliyev’s condition during the 
discussion.
A spokeswoman for Arayik Harutiunian, the Karabakh president, said Vardanyan’s 
current role is “Artsakh’s internal affair” and “can in no way be a topic of 
discussion for the government of Azerbaijan.”
Lusine Avanesian told the Artsakhpress news agency that Aliyev himself is 
suspected “for good reason” of corruption and war crimes. Avanesian said his 
comments about Vardanyan are an attempt to legitimize Azerbaijan’s blockade of 
the sole road connecting Karabakh to Armenia.
Vardanyan, 54, is a prominent Armenian billionaire who made his fortune in 
Russia in the 1990s and 2000s. He was appointed as Karabakh’s state minister in 
November two months after renouncing his Russian citizenship.
Baku condemned Vardanyan’s appointment, with Aliyev claiming that the former 
investment banker was sent to Karabakh by Russia. Russian Foreign Minister 
Sergei Lavrov insisted in December that Moscow “has nothing to do” with 
Vardanyan.
In recent weeks, there have been signs of a rift between Harutiunian and 
Vardanyan related to the blockade. A Karabakh opposition activist, Tigran 
Petrosian, claimed on Monday that Harutiunian has decided to sack Vardanyan. 
Neither leader commented on the claim.
Aliyev and Pashinian attended the panel discussion in Munich right after their 
trilateral meeting with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken. The Azerbaijani 
leader said they agreed that Baku will continue to negotiate with Yerevan on a 
bilateral peace treaty while starting “contacts with Karabakh’s Armenian 
population.”
“Also, it has been agreed with our international partners that there will be 
negotiations on the rights and security of Karabakh’s Armenian minority,” said 
Aliyev. He did not elaborate.
Yerevan has repeatedly called for an “international mechanism” for such 
negotiations. Baku has opposed that until now.
Reposted on ANN/Armenian News with permission from RFE/RL
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