Author: Emil Lazarian

YEREVAN. – Hraparak daily of Armenia writes: Nikol Pashinyan is insuring his power ahead of possible political developments or heated fall.

Yesterday, the government decided that as of September 1, pensions [in Armenia] will increase by 2-3 thousand drams. Of course, against the backdrop of enormous inflation, this small increase in pensions cannot have any significance in people’s lives. Especially against the backdrop of their [i.e., the government members] million-[dram] salaries, this is a mockery of the public at the least, but it’s enough for PR.

There are also reports that Pashinyan is preparing changes in the government, too. He awaits that the street will become active again and when it presents a slight threat to the authorities, he will contain public dissatisfaction with the resignation of some ministers, members of the government; the steps of forming a so called national accord or compromise government.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) of Armenia has responded to the note of the Russian embassy in the prescribed manner. Vahan Hunanyan, the MFA spokesperson, told Armenian News-NEWS.am about this—but did not disclose the content of this note.

“The content of the note is part of the internal diplomatic record; therefore, we do not consider its publicizing correct,” said Hunanyan.

On August 17, the Russian embassy in Armenia sent a note to the Armenian MFA due to the false anti-Russian accusations circulating against Russia in the Armenian local information domain.

In the statement of the embassy, it was noted that they are upset by the cynical speculations circulating in the local information domain, and which contain disrespectful and false accusations of the Russian organizations’ complicity in the tragic explosion that occurred in the Surmalu shopping market in Yerevan on August 14.

By Aram Achemyan

To mitigate the consequences of the 2020 economic crisis and solve political problems, the Armenian government increased the public debt, which reached $9.97 billion.

In 2021 alone, it increased by $1.3 billion or 16%, while GDP increased by only 5.7%.

The current government increased the public debt by $3.1 billion or 45.2%. In January-July of this year alone, it increased by $748.36 million or 8.1%.

Within 7 months, the internal debt increased by 219.4 billion drams or 18.4%, while the external debt decreased by 336.7 million dollars or 5.4%. It is important to emphasize that servicing domestic debt is more expensive for the state than external debt.

External debt decreased, while internal debt increased, as a result of which its structure changed. In particular, in July 2022, 58.6% of Armenia’s public debt was external debt, and 41.4% was internal debt.

In December 2021, 66.9% was external debt and 33.1% was internal debt.

Ceteris paribus, an increase in domestic debt has a negative impact on the amount of investment in the country. The amounts provided for servicing the public debt will increase in the coming years, which requires a revision of the financial-credit and fiscal policies.

Today it became known that the next meeting between the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan, Nikol Pashinyan and Ilham Aliyev will be held on August 31 in Brussels. A trilateral meeting was reported, no separate meeting between Pashinyan and Aliyev has been announced yet.

Azerbaijan increases the level of aggression

According to Azeri expert Taron Hovhannisyan, many problems were accumulated in the run-up to the meeting, including the aggressive behavior in Artsakh in early August.

Aliyev officially declares that the residents of Akhavno, Susa and Berdzor must and must leave their homes. This is, in fact, a forced deportation and contradicts Azerbaijan’s false thesis that Armenians can supposedly live peacefully under Azerbaijani leadership. The authorities in Baku are forcing Armenians to leave their homes.

“I am convinced that the meeting will not take place in a constructive way because Baku is not in the mood for it, otherwise it would not pursue an aggressive policy. Azerbaijan’s actions are becoming more and more aggressive against both the people of Artsakh and Armenia. Therefore, there is no chance for positive developments following the results of the meeting,” the political analyst told NEWS.am.

In parallel, there are other issues such as unblocking communications, delimitation and demarcation, and humanitarian issues.

One day before the meeting between Aliyev and Pashinyan in Brussels, the members of the commission for the Armenian-Azerbaijani border demarcation and security will have their second meeting in Moscow on August 30. The first such meeting was held on May 24 on the interstate border between Armenia and Azerbaijan at the Yeraskha section.

Baku fails to honor its commitments

According to Hovhannisyan, Azerbaijan has no desire to unblock communications. They are conditioned not by economic but political factors. Baku has shaped it into the idea of the so-called Zangezur corridor via Armenia.

Azerbaijan sees this not as an event aimed at creating a constructive atmosphere. The fact that there will be no such approach on the part of Azerbaijan is evidenced by Baku’s position on the issue of fulfilling its obligations on the return of Armenian prisoners of war and civilian hostages, which (position) boils down to the initiation of false criminal cases. Azerbaijan refuses to fulfill its obligations to return all detainees.

This is the kind of step that could help build confidence, if there were such a desire, but Azerbaijan does not have it.

“I think the meeting will be reduced to an exchange of views,” the expert believes.

Restrained competition between Russia and the West

The meetings are not initiated by Azerbaijan or Armenia. The mediator in this case is Brussels, but, as the political scientist noted, no one restricts the organization of meetings with the same intensity in Moscow.

“It is unrealistic to think that Brussels has leverage and can limit the organization of the meeting at the initiative of the Russian side.

The EU is undoubtedly an important player, but everybody is aware of Russia’s military presence in the region, including in Karabakh, understands that the trilateral formats after November 9, 2020 were initiated with the mediation of Moscow.      

I do not think that the EU can even partially push Moscow out of the current processes, because only Russia has a real presence on the ground. Another thing is that there is competition between the West and Russia. Each side is trying to show that it is the most active mediator and is trying to resolve problems. This competition is also between the co-chairs of the OSCE MG (Russia on the one hand and the US and France on the other hand).

But all this doesn’t mean that any of the sides leaves the process”, Hovhannisyan said.

Aram Danielyan