Author: Emil Lazarian

YEREVAN, Armenia — Armenia's prime minister on Tuesday accused a Moscow-dominated security alliance of leaving his country in the cold in the face of a threat of renewed hostilities with neighboring Azerbaijan.

Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has been repeatedly critical of what he described as the failure of the Collective Security Treaty Organization, or CSTO, to protect member Armenia amid a standoff with Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh.

Russia, which has sought to preserve strong ties with its ally Armenia while also maintaining friendly relations with energy-rich Azerbaijan, has engaged in a delicate diplomatic balancing act, avoiding any forceful action. The Kremlin's clout in the region has become more limited as Russia has focused its resources on the war in Ukraine.

Pashinyan said at a news conference that it wasn't Armenia that is pulling out of the CSTO, but, on the contrary, "the CSTO is pulling out of Armenia, whether it wishes so or not."

"We are concerned about that," Pashinyan said.

He emphasized that "the threat of escalation along Armenia's border and in Nagorno-Karabakh is very high now," noting "increasingly aggressive rhetoric from Azerbaijan."

Tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan soared in December when Azerbaijani protesters claiming to be environmental activists blocked the so-called Lachin corridor, the main road between Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh, leaving its 120,000 residents short of food and other basic supplies. Last month, the United Nations' highest court ordered Azerbaijan to allow the resumption of free movement along the road, but the situation has remained tense.

Nagorno-Karabakh lies within Azerbaijan but has been under the control of ethnic Armenian forces backed by Armenia since a separatist war there ended in 1994. In 2020, Azerbaijani troops routed Armenian forces in six weeks of fighting that ended with a Russia-brokered peace deal allowing Azerbaijan to take a significant part of Nagorno-Karabakh and reclaim nearby areas which had been in Armenian hands for nearly two decades.

During the latest standoff, Pashinyan and other Armenian officials strongly criticized Russia and the Moscow-dominated CSTO for the failure to ensure a free transit via the Lachin corridor.

Reflecting its irritation with Moscow, Armenia has canceled a planned military exercise by CSTO members set for this year and refrained from naming its representative to the bloc's leadership.

Pashinyan said that he raised Armenian concerns about the situation during a call on Monday with Russian President Vladimir Putin and mentioned a recent protest staged by Nagorno-Karabakh residents in front of Russian peacekeepers' headquarters.

Amid the tensions between Moscow and Yerevan, Armenian authorities denied entry to Margarita Simonyan, the head of Russian state-funded RT television, media manager Aram Gabrelyanov and Russian lower house member Konstantin Zatulin, who have been critical of Pashinyan's leadership. Asked about the move, Pashinyan said they have shown disrespect to Armenia, which is entitled to use the tools it sees fit to "prevent actions against its interests."

The Armenian leader noted "objective problems" in relations with the Kremlin, but said that he doesn't think that they have grown into a crisis.

In another sign of his irritation with Moscow, Pashinyan said that Armenia would welcome other countries, such as the United States and Germany, to help broker peace talks with Azerbaijan.

He also noted that "the existing security architecture didn't work," adding that Yerevan was taking efforts to "establish military-technical cooperation with many other countries."

https://www.stripes.com/theaters/europe/2023-03-14/armenian-prime-minister-moscow-security-pact-9491510.html

Azerbaijan is using the language of threats in the negotiation process on a peace treaty with Armenia, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said at a press conference on Tuesday.

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“Azerbaijan uses the language of threats in the negotiation process. This was the case before the war. We see that Azerbaijan is laying “mines” in the text of the peace treaty in order to continue its aggressive policy towards Armenia after its signing,” Pashinyan said.

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He added that Baku insists on signing its version of the peace treaty, “threatening with a large-scale offensive.”
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“We are ready to make decisions leading to long-term peace and stability,” the prime minister said.

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Answering a question about the country’s readiness for a new escalation, Pashinyan noted that it depends on many factors, and all these factors cannot be taken into account based on an unstable situation.

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“We will do everything to prevent escalation, and in the event of a possible attack, we will do everything to protect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the motherland,” Pashinyan said.

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He added that peace cannot be forced, “peace should be a common achievement for the region.”

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Yerevan and Baku last year, with the mediation of Russia, the United States and the European Union, began discussing a future peace treaty. Both states periodically exchange proposals on the text of a peace treaty.

Armenia is continuing to move away from the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). 

For some time Yerevan has been questioning the efficacy of being part of a military bloc that's unwilling to help it in its conflict with Azerbaijan. 

In January, it refused to host a CSTO exercise and on March 10 it renounced its right to take part in the bloc's leadership rotation. 

So far the Armenian authorities are coy about speculation that the move could signal a full withdrawal from the bloc and/or a pursuit of military cooperation with the West. 

On March 10 the Armenian Foreign Ministry officially confirmed reports that Armenia had rejected its quota for CSTO deputy secretary general, which had previously been reported by the ruling elite-linked Baghramyan26 Telegram channel.

Formed in 2002, the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) brings together Armenia, Kazakhstan, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and of course Russia. 

Armenia's relations with the organization deteriorated particularly after the CSTO refused to intervene or even criticize Azerbaijani troops' incursion into Armenian territory in September 2022.

Later, in November, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan refused to sign a declaration on the results of a CSTO summit in Yerevan, as well as a document on joint measures to provide assistance to Armenia, motivating his decision by the fact that the allies did not give a "clear political assessment" of Azerbaijan's September offensive. 

Then in January, Armenia refused to host a CSTO military exercise on its territory. Part of the reasoning for this move was that Armenia's hostile neighbors, Azerbaijan and Turkey, could consider the drill provocative, which could in turn threaten Armenia's security, Pashinyan said at the time.

Asked then whether Armenia was considering leaving the CSTO, he responded: "Can we say that Armenia will leave the CSTO? Maybe the CSTO will leave Armenia? Does this whole situation suggest that the CSTO intends to leave Armenia?"

That same question was posed to the secretary of the Security Council, Armen Grigoryan, in an interview by Radio Liberty's Armenian Service, Azatutyun, on March 10. 

His answer, too, was evasive while hinting at Yerevan's exasperation with the alliance.

"The CSTO does not recognize the internationally recognized border of Armenia. It is trying to use the arguments of Baku and convince us that there is no border there. But there is a border there," he said, adding at the same time that Armenia renouncing its spot in the bloc's leadership rotation contains no "political message."

The CSTO's Kazakh secretary general, Imangali Tasmagambetov, has three deputies. They are currently representatives of Russia, Kazakhstan and Tajikistan. In accordance with the principle of rotation laid down in the regulations of the organization, every three years new figures are appointed to these positions.

The Armenian opposition — which broadly speaking favors closer ties with Russia and its related institutions — has called this latest move a "reckless" step and part of a dangerous pattern.

"This process began in 2018, when, after Nikol Pashinyan's political team came to power, criminal charges were filed against the then Secretary General of the CSTO Yuri Khachaturov [appointed to this post under the quota of Armenia]. Already in 2023, Armenia refused to allow CSTO exercises on its territory, a number of statements were made critical of the CSTO," Tigran Abrahamyan, an opposition MP and member of the Armenian delegation to the CSTO parliamentary assembly, recalled in an interview with Eurasianet.

"We clearly see a change in the political attitude of the Armenian leadership towards the CSTO and clear signs of lowering the bar for relations with this organization," Abrahamyan added, though he refrained from predicting that the Pashinyan government would withdraw altogether. 

The director of the Regional Center for Democracy and Security in Yerevan, political analyst Tigran Grigoryan, sees the same trajectory.

"The Armenian authorities wish to demonstrate that Armenia's participation in this organization is only formal without any active participation in its activities. This is done in order to enlist the support of Western countries," Grigoryan said.

It was in the context of CSTO inaction that the European Union on February 20 launched a civilian mission (EUMA) in Armenia, which is an expanded version of a previous short-term mission in October-December that followed the Azerbaijani incursion. 

"The fact that this mission was deployed in Armenia is a consequence of the inaction of Russia and the CSTO in relation to Armenia's requests to intervene during the aggression of Azerbaijan in September last year," Grigoryan said.

Sergey Skakov, a Caucasus expert at the Russian Council on International Affairs, told Eurasianet that the move "complicates the general background of Armenia's relations with Russia" and that "Armenia is making things worse for itself."

He predicted, however, that Moscow will react with "restraint" and not move to sanction Armenia.

Tigran Grigoryan, meanwhile, believes that as it moves away from the CSTO, Yerevan is looking to develop military cooperation with non-bloc members, including Western countries.

"When the issue of military-technical cooperation with Armenia arises, several high-ranking officials of Western countries point to Armenia's membership in the CSTO as an obstacle. This is a problem for the transfer of technology to Armenia or technological cooperation with it. The Armenian authorities, by reducing the level of participation in the CSTO, are trying to prepare the ground for such cooperation," he said.

The European Union encourages the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan to use the historic opportunity to solve the conflict between them for good, and to return to the substantial dialogue, Commissioner for Neighbourhood and Enlargement, Oliver Várhelyi, said on behalf of EU High Representative Josep Borrell at the European Parliament Plenary on 15 March.

He recalled an incident on 6 May along the Karabakh line of contact that resulted in at least five deaths. 

“The circumstances surrounding this deadly incident need to be fully investigated. All parties should show restraint in order to prevent any actions, which could further undermine regional stability and threaten the peace process,” said Várhelyi.

He noted that the deployment of the EU Mission to Armenia (EUMA) was an important step towards enhancing stability and strengthening the EU’s role in the region, adding that “the ongoing restrictions to freedom of movement and to the supply of vital goods are causing serious distress for the local population”. 

At the same time, the EU is ready to continue supporting Azerbaijan, both by facilitating the peace process and by continuing to provide humanitarian and demining assistance, Várhelyi told the European Parliament. 

Regarding the human rights and rule of law situation in Azerbaijan, Várhelyi said that it remains a matter of concern. He welcomed on the EU’s behalf Azerbaijan’s signature of the European Convention on Human Rights protocol banning the death penalty in all circumstances and added that the EU is closely following the implementation of the media law, the adoption of the new law on political parties and individual cases of human rights defenders. 

Concerning EU-Armenia economic and trade relations, Várhelyi said that the EU-Armenia but also Armenia-Russia trade flows have increased several fold since the EU imposed additional sanctions on Russia. “While we welcome our more intensive exchanges with Armenia, due to its geographic location, it is also one of the partner countries we intend to cooperate more closely with the aim to prevent the circumvention of sanctions,” the Commissioner said.

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Armenia and Russia have completely stopped using dollars and euros in mutual settlekents, Vagan Kerobyan, Armenia's Minister of Economy said in an interview with the Vedomosti newspaper.

According to him, Armenia's exports to Russia quadrupled in 2022 from $850 million to $2.5 billion. Such an increased largely occurred as many Western companies decided to leave the Russian market. Armenian suppliers thus had an opportunity to expand their businesses in Russia. The trade turnover between the two countries doubled to $5.3 billion.

The choice of currency for trading under the current conditions is a big problem, Kerobyan said. The Russian currency is too volatile against the dollar and the euro, which hinders the conclusion of long-term contracts, he noted. In addition, the supplies of the Armenian currency, the dram, does not make it possible to ensure the existing flow of goods.

At the same time, Armenian companies, banks and agencies risk falling under secondary sanctions. However, the financial system and customs are doing their best to avoid this, the minister said. Russia is Armenia's most important economic partner. The republic is a member of the EAEU (Eurasian Economic Union), and it will be difficult for Armenia not to have mutual trade with Russia. 

“Global development is impossible against the backdrop of isolation of some political blocs from others. We would like to become a bridge between different fragments of the world economy. We communicate a lot with both Russian and European and American colleagues, explaining our position to them,” Kerobyan added.

https://english.pravda.ru/news/world/156072-armenia_russia/