Are US-Brokered Armenia-Azerbaijan Peace Talks Dead on Arrival?

The American Enterprise Institute
May 1 2023

By Michael Rubin

AEIdeas

May 01, 2023

The 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War upended the decades-long Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process. The hot take at the time was that Russia and Turkey were the victors. Both the United States and France, co-chairs with Russia in the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) Minsk Group, were caught off guard. Russian President Vladimir Putin, however, had initiated the ceasefire and crafted it to insert 2,000 Russian peacekeepers in Nagorno-Karabakh. Turkey also inserted troops as monitors in Azerbaijan.

Russian peacekeepers have shown themselves to be impotent as Azerbaijan flagrantly violates the ceasefire. While there are many parallel diplomatic processes—Russia’s, the OSCE’s, and the United States’—regional diplomats say that increasingly only Washington’s matters. Perhaps diplomacy is back.

How the White House and State Department craft diplomacy, however, is important. While the Biden administration seeks to promote a wide-ranging peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan, by conflating three different conflicts into one, they may condemn themselves to failure.

There are actually three different conflicts: Turkey-Armenia, Armenia-Azerbaijan, and Azerbaijan-Artsakh (the self-declared ethnic Armenian republic in Nagorno-Karabakh).

Turkey has blockaded Armenia since its re-independence in 1991, based not on any land dispute but rather on Turkey’s ethnic hatred toward Armenia. Ending this blockade should be an American interest, as it forces Armenia to use Iran as its economic outlook. Just last week, Turkey closed its airspace to Armenian passenger flights. The Turkey-Armenia diplomatic process should also address ending Turkey’s denial of the Armenian genocide. After all, if Germany’s official policy were to deny the Holocaust, no one in Washington would consider it an indispensable ally.

Armenia’s dispute with Azerbaijan should also be easily resolved. The two countries might appoint a third party—perhaps from a neutral Scandinavian country—to demarcate their borders. If Baku is sincere, it would drop its reference to fraudulent or extremist maps that show Armenia does not exist. Armenia, after all, could point to many maps from the pre-Soviet period that show a greater Armenia and no Azerbaijan. The 1975 Soviet General Staff map of the South Caucasus appears the most accurate map and can be the basis for peace. Azerbaijan, too, would have to end its blockade.

The Azerbaijan-Artsakh dispute will be the most difficult to resolve. Throughout the dispute, Armenia refrained from recognizing Artsakh’s independence so as not to undermine diplomacy. For Azerbaijan to negotiate with Armenia directly belies Azerbaijan’s insistence Armenia should have no role. Precedent is also against Armenia negotiating the fate of Artsakh. After all, Serbia and the United States did not insist Albania negotiate on behalf of Kosovo against the backdrop of that country’s fight for freedom against Serbia.

While Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev says the Nagorno-Karabakh is Azerbaijan’s based on Joseph Stalin’s gerrymandering, the region’s Armenian population has reason to be worried based on Azerbaijan’s war crimes, bulldozing of cultural heritage and, most recently, efforts to starve the Armenian population. Residents are right to be concerned that if they visit Armenia, Aliyev simply would not allow them back, a slow motion ethnic cleansing. Residents are also concerned that Aliyev’s serial violation of the 2020 ceasefire and the failure of Washington to hold him to account will only encourage future violations.

President Joe Biden’s team deserves credit for turning its attention to a long-neglected region, but not all diplomacy is the same. How Biden’s team frames the issue matters. It will be far easier to achieve lasting peace if the White House recognizes that what they assume to be one conflict is actually three. Two of these conflicts will be easy to resolve if leaders have good faith. If Turkey and Azerbaijan show they do not, then diplomacy is premature absent a push through sanctions and other coercive measures to make both Ankara and Baku offers they cannot refuse.

Moscow’s playbook in Karabakh

 eureporter 
May 7 2023
KARABAKH

Situated at the crossroads between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Russian Federation, the Caucasus region is heavily influenced by these two regional superpowers – writes James Wilson.

The US Secretary of State Antony Blinken hosted talks between the Armenian and Azerbaijani Foreign Ministers last week, intending to broker a lasting peace treaty between these two clashing countries. Many attempts to put the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict to rest have been made over the years, but this is the first time that US officials have taken an active part in the negotiations. It should come as no surprise that Blinken's decision to take a much more active part in the talks comes as a result of the increasing influence of other regional powers on the parties involved. This foreign influence also happens to have a distinct anti-Azerbaijani bias, as both Moscow and Tehran hold much against Baku. 

A focal point in the dispute between Azerbaijan and Armenia is the Armenian-populated separatist exclave in the UN recognised territory of Azerbaijan, in the region of Karabakh. Since the 2020 war fought by Azerbaijan against Armenia over the Karabakh enclave, Russian peacekeepers have been deployed to the area to keep the peace and ensure the passage of goods from Armenia to the Karabakh Armenians and vice versa. But, the Russian forces on the ground soon found themselves pursuing different objectives than the ones stated in their official deployment.

Considering Russia’s previous, and still ongoing, conflicts regarding puppet territories in many different parts of the former Soviet Union, such as Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Donbass, Moscow is continuing according to the same playbook. Karabakh provides a fitting target for such an operation. Moscow already has a significant military presence in the region, under the guise of peacekeeping (and military bases in close proximity), and the population is vastly different from that of land owners.

According to The Wall Street Journal, «Putin is using the Armenians of Karabakh as pawns. Like the South Ossetians and Abkhazians in Georgia or the Russian communities in Ukraine, Karabakh offers him a pseudo-humanitarian justification for Russian imperialism». The separatist region in Karabakh, the so-called «Republic of Artsakh», is a mineral-rich region, which isn’t recognised by any political entity in the UN, including Armenia. However, it is a member of a group of unrecognised states that calls itself the «Community for Democracy and Rights of Nations» – an organisation whose only other members are puppet states created by Russia: South Ossetia, Abkhazia and Transnistria.

Unsurprisingly, all these territories recognise each other and have a joint vested interest in being inducted into the Eurasian Union through their close ties to Russia. It is safe to assume that “Artsakh” will be no different, and will seek to ingratiate itself with Russia, the country which currently has the only deployed military force in the territories of this Armenian-populated enclave.

Armenia itself is a close ally of both Russia and Iran, despite the large diaspora living in Western countries, especially in the US and in France. A recent report by The Guardian shows that Iranian drones of many types made their way into Russia using boats and Iranian state-owned airlines. An article by EU Reporter corroborates this, adding that Armenia plays an integral part in these deliveries, allowing Iranian cargo planes to land in its airports before proceeding to deliver weapons to the Russian forces in Ukraine. According to the Berlin-based «German Centre for the South Caucasus» Armenia is used by Russia as a proxy for imports to and exports from Russia. 

At the same time Armenia tries to present itself as the «bastion of democracy in the Caucasus», calling through its English-language outlets to the West and international organisations to take practical steps to help them to fight against dictatorial Azerbaijan.  

But Armenia still remains a «textbook case of Eastern type autocracy, thinly covered with a veneer of modern values and civilisation», as the Romanian Newsweek edition puts it, bringing numerous proofs of alarming examples of oppression and tyranny.    

So while Yerevan tries to chum up to the West, yet its actions show where Yerevan’s allegiance truly lies. Whether current negotiations with Azerbaijan lead to any results, one should remain doubtful about their serious implementation because of the precedent Armenia has set for itself – siding with Russia and Iran on many issues. 

Here is one more recent example. Iranian officials have, more than once, declared how important their relations with Armenia are, claiming its territorial integrity and security are as crucial to Iran as Iran’s own. In late April flyers and leaflets appeared on residential and administrative buildings in Yerevan, including its central Republic Square, with a very clear message – images depicting the burning of Ukrainian, Israeli and Azerbaijani flags and the message in Armenian and Persian language “we have a common enemy”.

On 23rd April, during a torchlight procession in Yerevan marking the 108th anniversary of the Armenian genocide, an Azerbaijani flag was burned alongside the Turkish flag. A few days prior, on 14th April, Aram Nikolyan, an employee of the public TV of Armenia, snatched the Azerbaijani flag at the opening ceremony of the European Weightlifting Championship in Yerevan and burned it. Such evidence of the attitude in Armenia towards Azerbaijan and how the government doesn’t lift a finger to curb these open hostilities, raises doubts about the sincerity of negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Whilst I was writing this article, I have come to learn that the Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan plans to visit Moscow next week. Apparently he needs to report something to the Kremlin…  

Travel: Armenia, a timeless land of great beauty

Kuwait – May 6 2023
TRAVEL

By Nourah Khan
Exclusive to The Times Kuwait


Armenia is one of the most beautiful countries in the Caucasus, characterized by its charming natural landscapes, distinctive tourist sites, and a history that spans eons. The moment you step into the country, you are engulfed by the friendliness of locals, which adds to the beauty of a trip to this enchanting country.

Armenia is not a very large country, and within a week you could be able to traverse the major tourist attractions in this place. The most appropriate time to visit Armenia and enjoy its beautiful atmosphere and moderate temperatures are from April to June.

Whatever type of tourism you prefer, you will find what you need in Armenia. So if you are looking for a new destination for family tourism, or you want to spend your honeymoon in a magical place to create unforgettable memories, or perhaps you prefer nature hikes, exotic sports, heritage tourism, or just partying and other fun activities, you can do all of this and more in one country, Armenia.

In Armenia you can find different natural landscapes and a country that is steeped in culture and heritage with a history that extends back more than 3,500 years. Many cultural and historical monuments dot the country, and befittingly enough the country is often referred to as an ‘Open Museum’.

But this does not mean that travelers who are seeking relaxation and enjoying nature will not find any such venues in the country; quite the opposite. Armenia is a country with outstanding natural beauty, which gives visitors all the ingredients for relaxation and unwinding.

As for prices, it is one of the countries that will not cost you much to travel and stay. The cost of living as a tourist is reasonable and appropriate, and of course cheaper than most places in Europe. So I think it is suitable for people who are on a limited budget.

A visit to any city or town in Armenia makes you feel quite comfortable, because you will notice that a large number of Armenians were born in Gulf countries and know a lot about our cultures, customs and character. On knowing that I am from Kuwait, I was warmly welcomed into homes of total strangers and plied with food and drink. And, speaking about food, Armenian food is quite similar to what we have here in Kuwait and the Gulf.

The most important thing I particularly noticed about Armenia is the high level of security that prevails across the country. I used to go out for walks alone in the streets at night without encountering any untoward incident.

Some of the amazing places I visited in Armenia include:
Yerevan, the capital of Armenia, is a city of contradictions where modern lifestyle trappings compete for space with the old. While few traces of the city’s storied ancient history are visible today, much of the extant architecture is dominated by stolid Soviet-era buildings interspersed by numerous beautiful gardens, parks and other greenery. The city was once called the Pink City based on the color of the stones that were used in building architectural artifacts and houses.

Another place to visit is the town of Dilijan, which teems with health resorts, and is also one of the places with an amazing natural beauty. Every corner and space appears embellished with green trees, colorful gardens and fountains. Located on the banks of the Aghstev River, Dilijan lies to the northeast of the capital Yerevan and enjoys a mild climate throughout the year.

The town’s many health resorts and natural beauty, as well as entertainment places with exciting activities, attract a lot of tourists year round. And, while in Dilijan do not miss visiting the town’s other major attractions, including the Old Town, Dilijan Museum, the famous healing mineral water fountains and the World War II Memorial.

And, no matter what, do not miss tasting Armenian cuisine, as it is considered the source kitchen for much of today’s Middle-Eastern cuisines, with their slant towards poultry, meat and fish. Famous local dishes vary in taste between European and Eastern preferences, and there are also dishes that appeal to our Gulf tastes and flavors, especially ones such as the Armenian grilled fish.

Among the other beautiful cities that must be on your tourist schedule is the city of Jermuk. The city of Jermuk in Armenia is one of the most famous places for medical tourism, as it is characterized by its mineral waters and mild climate throughout the year. The city contains more than 40 thermal springs that people go to for treatment for various diseases and you also get to see the second largest waterfall in Armenia, with the Jermuk Waterfall cascading down from a height of over 70 meters.

Another interesting place that should be visited in Armenia is Lake Sevan, also known as the ‘Jewel of the Caucasus’. It is one of the highest freshwater lakes in the world, located at an altitude of 1,900 meters above sea level. As a result of its height, the weather in Lake Sevan is moderate to cold even in the summer days, which makes it an important attraction for tourists, especially tourists coming from hot countries such as the Arab Gulf states. You can also enjoy camping or doing some water sports when you visit Lake Sevan in the summer, at very reasonable prices.

There is something else you should not miss when visiting Armenia, Mount Ararat mentioned in the Bible and associated with Noah’s Ark. Although it is located on Turkish soil, Mount Ararat is one of the most majestic mountains in the world, which can be seen from the Armenian lands. Although it lies outside the borders of modern Armenia, the mountain is a national symbol of Armenia and has been considered a sacred place by Armenians for ages.

In Armenia, you will not have any difficulty in interacting with others, because English is the most common language after the Russian language, especially in the capital, Yerevan. But moving to the countryside, Russian is the most popular foreign language, and rarely you can come across Armenians who speak French, especially in shops, restaurants and hotels.

For my transportation throughout Armenia, I relied on a tour company and a tour guide. Modes of transportation in Armenia are of high quality, given the number of tourists who come to the country most of the year, with domestic transportation divided between the metro, buses, mini-buses and taxis.

I also recommend that you travel with a knowledgeable tour guide so that they can explain the stories, histories and traditions behind statues, buildings, and other attractions in the country.

I believe that the opening of direct flights between the two countries could be mutually beneficial. More visitors from Kuwait could travel easily to Armenia, and more Armenian fresh products could arrive in this country, not to mention the significant Armenian community in Kuwait who would also benefit from such direct flights.

Noura Khana travel influencer and content creator, is a Kuwaiti national, holds a degree in law from Kuwait University and has worked as a journalist prior to taking up a position in the government. In 2018 she started blogging on travel and visited more than 57 countries since. She has more than 54k followers on her blog post @nourajtraveller is well appreciated for content and travel information. Noura writes exclusively for The Times Kuwait on her travel visits.

https://timeskuwait.com/news/armenia-a-timeless-land-of-great-beauty/ 

Artsakh Armenians continue protest on Stepanakert-Shushi road

NEWS.am
Armenia – May 6 2023

A group of Artsakh (Nagorno-Karabakh) Armenians continue their protest on the Stepanakert-Shushi roadway, the Artsakh Public TV reports.

The young activists of the "NO to the ethnic cleansing in Artsakh" movement started an indefinite protest on May 2, setting up tents on the road.

They demand the removal of the Azerbaijani checkpoint from the Lachin Corridor, the only road in and out of Artsakh.

A public discussion was also held at the protest site. The activists stress that they are not going to end the protest until their demands are met.

Turkish Press: Azerbaijanis’ affection for ‘Chief’ Erdogan, preparations for May 14 elections

Turkey – May 2 2023
Azerbaijanis' affection for 'Chief' Erdogan, preparations for May 14 elections
Ersin Çelik

I was on my way to the Azerbaijani capital Baku on the night President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan was taken ill on live television. I arrived towards the morning, and my host Zafer, who came to greet me, directly asked after salutations: “How is the chief?”

Azerbaijanis refer to their state leader Ilham Aliyev in English as “president.” When I visited Azerbaijan seven months following the liberation of Karabakh from invasion, I heard the Azerbaijanis I met refer to Erdoğan as, “our president.” In fact, I mentioned it in this column too. However, I heard the term “chief” used for the first time. I asked Zafer why they call Erdoğan chief. He responded, “Our [love for him is so great that our] heart is not big enough for him. He is at the highest level.”

The people of Azerbaijan truly do have an inexplicable love for the people of Türkiye, and Erdoğan. It is enough to tell anyone, “I am from Türkiye.” They immediately embrace you with their love and sincerity.

We set off towards Karabakh as the sun was rising. Zafer said, “We watched the news all night. We are curious about our chief’s condition.” Indeed, whomever we spoke to all day, the agenda was Erdoğan’s health condition.”

Surely Erdoğan’s contributions towards reclaiming Karabakh are effective in this love. However, there is a great prior “yearning” as well. As known, the two sister countries’ ties weakened for many reasons after Baku was liberated from invasion in 1918 by the Caucasus Islamic Army, led by Nuri Pasha.

The reason ties that became weaker over the years are now stronger than steel and turned into great love and affection is known by all: The Karabakh victory in 2020 against Armenia.

Regardless of whom you speak to in Azerbaijan, you will certainly hear them say: “If it wasn’t for Türkiye if Erdoğan had not made efforts, we could not have taken Karabakh.”

The people of Azerbaijan still remember Nuri Pasha, and the Türkiye that refrained from sending the helicopters requested for civilians’ evacuation in 1992 while Armenians were conducting massacres. They analyze really well the Türkiye that was dealing with its own problem in those years in comparison to the powerful Türkiye that ensured Karabakh’s conquest.

Hence, they are stronger Erdoğan supporters than the electorates in Türkiye. Therefore, the public polls conducted in Azerbaijan present 92 percent support for Erdoğan.

There are 400 kilometers between Baku and Shusha, the last remaining Azerbaijan territory in the Karabakh region. However, travel, for now, is via this exhausting and long route. Meanwhile, the construction of new roads and new cities are underway. Armenia turned the city center and villages of culture and civilization capital Shusha, which it invaded for 28 years, almost into a ghost town. They massacred history. They destroyed the mosques, homes, water fountains, and mansions. They even removed the stones and took them. Directly across Karabakh, there is the city of Khankendi, situated within Armenian borders. It is quite visible. In fact, even the sounds are audible. Khankendi is part of the Karabakh territory that was reclaimed 28 years later. In other words, it is still under Armenian occupation, and “for now” under the watch of Russian Peacekeeping Forces.

Azerbaijan wants the incomplete operation to be concluded through war or without war, and for Khankendi to be returned to Azerbaijan. Some of the officials with whom we met are pointing to 2025 and beyond. However, Armenia has plans as well, which are spread throughout the Azerbaijan side in the form of hearsay.

Such that Armenians associate Karabakh’s defeat to Türkiye and the Bayraktar drones. They are not hiding this, and they feel shamed as a nation. In other words, they have dreams of re-occupying Karabakh. But for them to overcome this hysterical state, Türkiye’s attitude must change. The expectation from Türkiye is a country that does not protect Azerbaijan, two countries that do not run to each other for help whenever they are in trouble, and a Turkish president whom the Azerbaijani president refers to as “big brother,” but rather a Republic of Türkiye that is closer to Armenia than normal. For this to happen, the ruling power in Türkiye must change. This is how Türkiye’s May 14 elections are viewed by the Armenian side. This is not an interpretation, but a matter discussed in both Baku and Shusha. These hearsay are really based on open sources. The analysis in March by Euronews – notorious for its anti-government publications in Türkiye – with the title, “Türkiye’de olası iktidar değişikliği Ermenistan ile ilişkileri nasıl etkiler?” (How will a likely government change in Türkiye affect relations with Armenia?), is only one of the signs.

Occupation-term Karabakh President Arayik Harutyunyan stated in recent months, “All documents identifying Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan are unacceptable for us.” Harutyunyan’s denial of the defeat is the reason underlying the close combat between the two countries’ troops on the border. Nowadays, the same Harutyunyan’s comments centered around Türkiye’s May 14 elections are being discussed. There is no doubt that the biggest dream is the ruling government in Türkiye will change, and Karabakh will be “returned” to Armenia without war in the post-Erdoğan period. The Armenian front has managed to put this hearsay in circulation. But is it successful? In other words, does it scare and unsettle the Azerbaijani public? We returned to Baku with Ali Muradoğlu and his wife, who reclaimed their destroyed home in Aghdam 28 years later. I opened the subject as we were chatting, and they made me regret ever asking them. They were so overflowed with emotion that they shared the agony of those 28 years and the gratitude of being back on their land with striking comparisons.

They said they made vows for the night of May 14, much like the retaking of Karabakh. Muradoğlu’s wife, who is the Shusha delegate said, “We are the ones who will be celebrating on the night Erdoğan wins. Everybody will see.” I asked, “What if he loses?” She said, “Brother, you must be out of your mind.”

Let’s wait and see on the evening of May 14, whether Azerbaijanis will rejoice, or the Armenian invaders will celebrate? Both countries are waiting.

https://www.yenisafak.com/en/columns/ersin-celik/azerbaijanis-affection-for-chief-erdogan-preparations-for-may-14-elections-3663929



Armenian, Azerbaijani FMs to hold meeting in Russia

 MEHR News Agency
Iran – May 2 2023


TEHRAN, May 02 (MNA) – Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan is going to hold another meeting with his Azerbaijani counterpart Jeyhun Bayramov in Moscow, Armenian politician Arman Yeghoyan says.

The chairman of the Armenian parliamentary committee on European integration and a member of the ruling Civil Contract party made the remarks in a news briefing on Tuesday.

"A preliminary agreement has been reached to hold a meeting [between the Armenian and Azerbaijani foreign ministers] in Moscow," TASS quoted him as saying.

The top diplomats of Armenia and Azerbaijan have been holding talks, with the mediation of US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, in Washington since May 1. The deputy speaker of Armenia’s parliament and special representative for normalization with Turkey, Ruben Rubinyan, is also attending the meetings.

Tensions have risen as Azerbaijan set up a new checkpoint on the road to Karabakh in the Lachin Corridor, a move that Armenia called a gross violation of a 2020 ceasefire. 

MP/PR





Russia Says ‘No Alternative’ To Its Karabakh Mediation After US Initiative

BARRON'S
May 2 2023


  • FROM AFP NEWS

May 2, 2023



Russia on Tuesday responded to US-hosted peace talks between Armenia and Azerbaijan this week saying there was "no alternative" to a deal that Moscow signed with the two warring countries in 2020.

"For the moment, there is no other legal basis that would help a resolution. There is no alternative to these trilateral documents," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters.

Initiatives to lower tensions in the region "are possible above all on the basis of the trilateral documents signed with Russia," he said.

The United States this week is hosting negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan, seeking to quell recent tension over the disputed enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh.

The two sides have gone to war twice, in 1990 and 2020, leaving tens of thousands dead and clashes regularly erupt over the territory, an Armenian-majority region inside Azerbaijan.

Tensions have spiked again in recent days after Azerbaijan announced it had set up a checkpoint on the Lachin corridor, the only land link between Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh, sparking an angry response from Yerevan.

Armenia views the move as a violation of the cease-fire negotiated between the two sides.

Moscow brokered a ceasefire between Yerevan and Baku after the latest bout of fighting in 2020 and posted peacekeepers along the Lachin corridor.

With Russia bogged down in Ukraine and unwilling to strain ties with Azerbaijan's key ally Turkey, the United States and European Union have sought to steer a thaw in ties.

bur/giv

https://www.barrons.com/news/russia-says-no-alternative-to-its-karabakh-mediation-after-us-initiative-1f092777







Azerbaijan Losing Patience with Armenia’s Pashinyan

May 2 2023

The installation of a border crossing point on the Lachin Corridor should not have come as a surprise. Azerbaijan has been strikingly patient for nearly three years waiting for Armenia to sign a post-war peace treaty.

The Lachin road has been de facto sealed from military traffic since environmental protestors established a camp there in December 2022. The protestors continued to allow Russia’s so-called ‘peacekeeping force’ and the IRC (International Red Cross) to travel through the Lachin.

Meanwhile, Armenia has refused to implement articles 3 and 9 of the November 2020 ceasefire agreement.

Article 3 specifies ‘The peacekeeping contingent of the Russian Federation is being deployed in parallel with the withdrawal of the Armenian armed forces.’ Nevertheless, Yerevan still has a large 10,000 contingent (for only 25,000 Karabakh Armenians) of Armenian security forces masquerading as Karabakh ‘self-defence’ forces. In the last three years, Armenia has rotated and re-supplied Armenian and Karabakh forces through the Lachin Corridor with the assistance of Russia’s so-called ‘peacekeeping forces’ using trucks officially transporting humanitarian assistance.

The Russian independent newspaper Novaya Gazeta reported that trucks transporting humanitarian assistance were allowed to travel through the Lachin Corridor after paying ‘several thousand dollars’ in bribes to Russians. Armenian security forces are reportedly travelling in these humanitarian trucks camouflaged as civilians and construction workers. Russia used the same maskirovka when using humanitarian trucks to supply its proxy forces in the so-called ‘Donetsk Peoples Republic’ (DNR) and ‘Luhansk People’s Republics’ (LNR).

In July 2022, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan agreed to withdraw ‘all remaining military units’ from Karabakh by September of that year, itself a recognition that Armenian security forces continued to be illegally based in Karabakh. Unfortunately, Pashinyan has the ‘ability to contradict himself sometimes even in the same sentence’ and he has not fulfilled his promise to withdraw Armenian forces from Karabakh.

Worse still, Armenia has transported into and planted thousands of mines in the Karabakh region that were manufactured in 2021; that is, after the ceasefire agreement was signed. Armenia does not deny the mines were manufactured in 2021 but claims the mines were taken from its own territory.

Article 9 ‘guarantees the safety of transport links between the western regions of the Republic of Azerbaijan and the Nakhichevan Autonomous Republic in order to organize the unimpeded movement of citizens, vehicles and goods in both directions.’ Armenia has refused to call this a corridor (despite using this term for Lachin) and has not implemented article 9 allowing unimpeded traffic along the Zangezur Corridor between Azerbaijan and Nakichevan. Armenia’s borders are controlled by Russia’s FSB (Federal Security Service) and Pashinyan may be reluctant to allow them to control the Zangezur Corridor.

Pashinyan has dragged out the peace talks with contradictory signals and messages. At times Pashinyan has leaned towards an EU-brokered agreement and at other times he has sided with Russia’s proposal to take the ‘Karabakh question’ off the table until an unspecified future date. Azerbaijan does not support an indefinite postponement of the ‘Karabakh question.’

The Kremlin seeks to postpone an agreement on Karabakh which would mean that Russia’s so-called ‘peacekeepers’ would remain indefinitely in place. In the last three decades the Kremlin has never sought to resolve frozen conflicts in Moldova’s Transdniestria, Georgia’s South Ossetia and Abkhazia and Azerbaijan’s Karabakh. The Kremlin has always viewed its so-called ‘peacekeepers’ as military bases projecting Russian influence into its self-declared exclusive sphere of influence in Eurasia.

Pashinyan has only himself to blame for wasting three years and not signing a peace treaty. He came to power in the 2018 velvet revolution as the first leader to be born in Armenia. His main rivals from the ‘Karabakh clan’, Robert Kocharyan and Serzh Sargsyan, were discredited by decades of authoritarianism, rigged elections, oligarchs, and corruption.

But instead of adopting a dovish stance towards Azerbaijan, Pashinyan adopted nationalist rhetoric and called ‘Artsakh’ (Karabakh) an Armenian land, claimed Karabakh should be part of Armenia, and rejected earlier peace proposals. Ironically, although Pashinyan had come to power in a democratic revolution and was not a member of the ‘Karabakh clan’, Pashinyan’s hyper nationalist discourse led to the Second Karabakh War in September 2020 and military defeat.

Since the war, Pashinyan has not reigned in his foreign and defence ministries who continue to espouse irredentism towards Azerbaijan. Armenia’s siloviki refuse to acknowledge their defeat in the 2020 war, claim the ceasefire treaty was imposed upon them, do not accept the conflict is resolved and the only question left remaining is minority rights for Armenians in Karabakh, refuse to accept Azerbaijani sovereignty over Karabakh and continue to promote the concept of ‘self-determination’ for Karabakh.

In international law the concept of ‘self-determination applies to states, not territories within states. Four UN resolutions in April (822), July (853), October (874), and November (884) 1993 supported Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity to include Karabakh.  Armenia’s leaders point to Crimea, illegally annexed by Russia in 2014, as the precedent for ‘self-determination’ they wish to use for Karabakh.

Time is running out for Pashinyan.

In November 2025, Azerbaijan is unlikely to renew the five-year mandate for Russian so-called ‘peacekeepers’ as they have not implemented the ceasefire agreement and have directly or indirectly assisted Armenia in maintaining an illegal military presence in Karabakh.  Armenia’s reliance on Russian military support is a strategic miscalculation as the war in Ukraine has shown to what degree Russia is a declining power with a Potemkin military.

Pashinyan therefore has just over two years to negotiate a peace treaty with Azerbaijan. If he does not, he will only have himself to blame when Azerbaijan again, as with the new border post it installed this month on the Lachin road, asserts its sovereignty over Armenian-controlled Karabakh.

 

The views expressed in this article belong to the authors alone and do not necessarily reflect those of Geopoliticalmonitor.com.


Deposits growth exceed increase in crediting – cenbank governor

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 16:35, 2 May 2023

YEREVAN, MAY 2, ARMENPRESS. Loans increased 16% and deposits grew “with progressive pace” in 2022, Central Bank Governor Martin Galstyan said at a press conference.

“During the year a growth of activeness was recorded in the crediting market, loans grew around 16%, which is comparable with the pace of the average growth of pre-COVID 19 years. At the same time, in conditions of high economic growth the deposits grew progressively against loans. Meaning, due to the entry of non-resident entities into the Armenian financial market, we have a situation when the growth of deposits has exceeded the growth of loans,” Galstyan said.

The growth in crediting was seen in all directions.

The profitability of the banking system “significantly improved” in 2022, Galstyan added.

He also said that deflation of goods is observed as a result of prices of food products falling globally. This could lead to the inflation in Armenia becoming lower than the projected 4%.

Armenian lawmakers meet with President of Cyprus

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 17:19, 2 May 2023

YEREVAN, MAY 2, ARMENPRESS. An Armenian parliamentary delegation has met with the President of Cyprus Nikos Christodoulides during a visit to Cyprus.

“The President highly praised the brotherly relations between Armenia and Cyprus,” MP Hayk Konjoryan, the parliament majority leader and Chair of the Armenia-Cyprus Inter-parliamentary cooperation commission said in a statement.

“We mutually underscored the high level of inter-parliamentary cooperation and discussed new prospects of deepening the cooperation. We raised the issue of Azerbaijan’s illegal installation of a checkpoint on Lachin Corridor. We discussed the ongoing peace process taking place with Azerbaijan, the existing challenges and ways for resolving them,” Konjoryan said.