Author: Emil Lazarian

Stele was an integral part of the CP members’ power. But lying also has a limit.

The other day, Economy Minister Gevorg Papoyan was talking about last year’s salary increases, making discoveries, publishing figures unknown to official statistics, saying that we see how the average salary in Armenia is constantly increasing.

“For the first time, in December, we had an average salary of 400,000 drams, taxes included, of course.

I look at all this not with the pre-election and electoral logic, but as the economic development of our country,” the Minister of Economy insisted.

Let’s leave aside how well this statement of Gevorg Papoyan fits into the pre-election or election logic, let’s look at the figure he gave about the average salary.

But before that, let’s note that a few days ago, the Minister of Labor and Social Affairs made such a statement.

“2025 in December, the average salary in Armenia was 401 thousand drams.

Moreover, in November of the same year, that indicator was 327 thousand drams,” Arsen Torosyan advertised their recorded salary increases during the meeting with the CP faction, probably excited by their own salary gains.

Gevorg Papoyan and Arsen Torosyan are the ministers of this government who are directly related to salaries and hardly knew what the average salary in Armenia was in December. They probably knew, but they lied or gave false numbers, exaggerating the salary indicators.

The data published by the official statistics show that the average salary in Armenia in December last year was 400 thousand drams, moreover, it was not more than that.

According to official data, the average salary was much lower in December. It amounted to 376.7 thousand drams, 23.3 thousand drams less than 400 thousand.

But as we can see, this did not prevent Gevorg Papoyan, who holds the position of Minister of Economy, and Arsen Torosyan, who holds the position of Minister of Social Affairs, to talk about the average salary of 400 thousand or more than 400 thousand. Moreover, to try to create the impression that salaries are growing at a high rate.

Arsen Torosyan says that in November the average salary was 327 thousand drams, in December it became 401 thousand drams.

If Arsen Torosyan and the other officials had given them, let’s say, 17-18 million bonuses in December instead of 7-8 million, the difference would definitely be bigger. But the ministers who received millions of bonuses naturally avoid talking about it. Isn’t it clear that they won’t say that they were given millions in bonuses, that’s why average salary indicators jumped in December? But with that, they did not reach 400 thousand, as they try to present.

The average salary, after the widespread payment of bonuses in December, was much lower than intentionally, perhaps also unknowingly, these people declare. And what we see already in January of this year reveals the secret of salary growth.

In January of this year, compared to the previous month, the average salary in Armenia decreased significantly. If in December last year it was 376.7 thousand drams, in January of this year it was 293.3 thousand drams.

It decreased at once by 83.4 thousand drams or by more than 22 percent.

When we subtract the unseen high bonuses and bonuses distributed to government officials at the end of the year, we see what remains below the average salary. It is still not the real salary, it is the nominal salary, that is, before taxation.

If taxes are deducted, the real average salary is much lower. In January of this year, it was only 217 thousand drams.

This is despite the fact that the average salary in some sectors reaches 900 thousand, sometimes up to 1 million drams, which means that the salaries of hundreds of thousands of citizens in many other sectors are even much lower than the average. There are many people who receive the minimum wage, sometimes even lower.

Last year, the average salary in Armenia increased by 15.9 thousand drams. The growth is not high, only 5.5 percent, but it was also due to higher than average increases in several areas. Let’s say that the average salary in the mining industry increased by 53.5 thousand drams last year, almost 3.4 times more than the average salary.

The average salary increase in the financial system exceeded 50.6 thousand. The rate of growth is almost 3.2 times more than the average salary.

Instead, wages in many sectors of the economy have been much more modestly increased, and sometimes even decreased. And this means that there are no tangible changes in the lives of the citizens included in these groups from the high economic growth that they try to present as a world-viewing event or a world-level achievement. Not counting the fact that they are affected by inflation, increases in taxes and fees for individuals.

Imagine, in January of this year, compared to the same month last year, the average salary in Armenia increased by only 5.4 percent. At the same time, food inflation was 5.9 percent, 0.5 percentage points higher than average wage growth. It is obvious that only due to inflation, there has been a decline in the purchasing power of the society and deepening of poverty.

HAKOB KOCHARYAN

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The neighboring Islamic Republic of Iran has been at war with the United States and Israel for about 17 days, since the start of an undeclared war by the latter.

While the US leadership continues to make contradictory statements, stating that they are winning, then denying that statement, then emphasizing that they have destroyed the Iranian air force and leadership, the Russian side records that the plan to conquer Iran in one day has failed. Today, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov announced that the consequences of the conflict over Iran have gone beyond the regional borders of the Middle East and have reached global dimensions.

“Those who, parallel to these events, deal with the response to aggression, who carry out terrorism against energy infrastructures, oil tankers, commit terrorist acts, of course, they probably want to draw attention to themselves. But the consequences are much wider. And they are no longer regional at all, they have a global scale,” Lavrov noted.

“As for the prospects of this conflict, it is difficult to say. Recently, US President Trump said that Iran is, I quote, “totally crushed”.

And on the same day, the representative of the Israel Defense Forces announced: “We still have a thousand targets ahead of us, and we will work towards those targets at least until Pesach,” that is, at least three more weeks. Therefore, it is difficult to predict what consequences this crisis may have, how it may end, if they do not immediately stop, come to their senses and start working out agreements that will not fail this time,” Lavrov said. According to him, “guarantees are needed” for that.

“I perfectly understand that Iran needs such guarantees,” the Russian Foreign Minister added.

According to him, the plan to conquer Iran in one day has failed.

“If they expected that in one day, in a few hours, they would achieve the task of completely subjugating this state to them, then, probably, they now understand how much they were wrong, how misguided they were,” Lavrov said.

Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi also stated that the USA and Israel have already learned a good lesson by attacking Iran.

“I assume that by now they have already learned a good lesson, they have understood what kind of nation they are dealing with, a nation that will not allow itself to hesitate in terms of defense and is ready to continue the war as long as it is necessary and where it is necessary,” said Araghchi, whose words were quoted by the Iranian Foreign Ministry.

According to him, Tehran intends to continue military operations “until US President Donald Trump admits his mistake” in the military operation against the Islamic Republic.

“Our powerful armed forces will continue to fight until the US president realizes that the illegal war he has imposed on both the Americans and the Iranians is wrong and must never be repeated.” The victims should receive compensation,” Araghchi wrote on social networks. At the same time, he announced Iran’s “willingness to discuss any proposal that will lead to a just end to the war.”

168.amin a conversation with Russian analyst Vladimir Yevseyev said that the US-Israeli attack on Iran is a classic example of how great powers miscalculate the adversary’s military-political resistance and the regional environment.

According to him, in the first phase of the attack, they acted in the scenario of applying quick pressure and achieving a quick result. at the initial stage of the attack, the US and Israel were guided by the calculation that quick and intense military strikes would force Iran to retreat quickly, because they assumed that Iran’s military infrastructure could be hit quickly, Iran would not want a large-scale escalation, and regional actors would not intervene.

However, under the leadership of Vladimir Yevseyev, the problem began at the stage when Iran turned the war into a full-scale escalation and a full-scale war, responding to the US-Iranian military operation with the psychology of a full-scale war.

He also believes that the miscalculation also referred to the underestimation of Iran’s resistance network, Iran’s strategy is not based only on the army, but also on regional partners.

“In Washington, perhaps, it was assumed that it was possible to increase military pressure as much as necessary, while maintaining control over it. However, in reality, in such conflicts, the opponent often responds not at the same level, but with disproportionate steps, which violates the initial calculations.

Another miscalculation is misjudging the regional environment, the Middle East is a complex region that has changed a lot in recent years as well. In this environment, it is difficult even for the great powers. Therefore, because of all this, the attempt to get a quick strategic result turned into a long and more complicated conflict. This will be extended, I think, until Iran receives certain guarantees,” Vladimir Yevseyev said.

In his assessment, a prolonged military confrontation is not in the interests of any side, but it is definitely not in the interest of the United States, which will find it difficult to fight a long war in a war that is very expensive due to the distance.

“I think, however, this war will not have direct consequences for the South Caucasus if the regional countries continue their current positions, although I think Iran would like to get more support from all partner countries and is conducting even more active diplomacy at this stage. Henceforth, the expanding influence of the US in the South Caucasus will be an even bigger problem for Iran, negotiating with which the US hit Iran twice,” said Vladimir Yevseyev.

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168TVof “Trigger” the guest of the program Russian political scientist, doctor of historical sciences, Russian Academy of Sciences Ye. Alexander Krylov is a senior researcher at the Caucasus Department of the Primakov Institute of World Economy and International Relations.:

During the program, we discuss a number of current topics, for example, the projects of analysis of Armenian-Turkish history textbooks implemented with the support of Western foundations and the possible impact of such initiatives on the historical policy and educational system of Armenia, research on the formation of public opinion on the issue of the opening of the Armenian-Turkish border and the regulation of relations, the role of international grant programs and their impact on the country’s political discourse.

The campaigns against the Metsamor nuclear power plant and the issue of Armenia’s energy security, as well as the competition between Russia and the USA for the construction of a new nuclear power plant and the technological risks of the proposed projects, were considered separately.

Sociological surveys on trust in key institutions, regional transport and energy projects, security issues in Syunik, the South Azerbaijan factor and possible geopolitical competition around Iran in the South Caucasus are also at the center of the discussion.

Hayk Derzyan

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Ignoring the warning of the Ministry of Finance, the government, as always, guided by political expediency, decided to increase pensions.

The increase of pensions, no matter how much it is necessary, is not provided with financial means, because from the beginning the government did not allocate money for it in the state budget. They raised it on assumptions. One thing that has worried the Ministry of Finance in terms of what these expenses will be paid for. Especially since we are talking about quite serious money.

According to the government’s calculations, almost 79 billion drams are needed to increase pensions and benefits. After approving the budget, that amount was not included in the expenses. In accordance with the projected incomes of the budget, they set the expenses, which, however, do not include the 79 billion drams needed for raising pensions.

Based on that, the Ministry of Finance has warned that in this way they are creating risks for the budgets of this and future years.

“Taking into account the political and social resonance of the presented proposal, nevertheless, from the point of view of fiscal stability, we consider it necessary to note that in this case it refers to 2026. and about the significant increase in current expenses for the following years, which will lead to significant inertial increases in the social expenses of the base budget in the following years and will significantly limit the opportunities of the RA government to spend in other directions.

If we add to the latter the existing fiscal restrictions, as well as significant fiscal pressures on current expenses arising from the universal health insurance system and additional spending needs generated in many other directions in 2026. and for the following years, we consider the presented proposal to be quite risky,” the Ministry of Finance had warned about the government’s initiative to increase pensions, but the government ignored that warning.

Meanwhile, the risks related to fiscal stability mean that the budget may face problems in servicing these expenses, because the financial sources that will be used to pay for the increase in pensions are not known. Especially, the hasty introduction of health insurance increased the burden on the budget. Budgetary funds intended for that purpose may run out in the middle of the year, as was usually the case with state orders, and additional funds may be needed. It is not known where the money will be taken from.

It was not enough, without financial security, they decided to increase pensions and add a completely new burden to the budget. The risk of losing power forced them to take that step, and now, in hindsight, they have started looking for funds to pay the pensions.

They say that we have additional expectations of tax revenues. The question arises, if there were such expectations, why were they not included in the state budget approved just a few months ago?

There are 2 options: those expectations are false and unfounded, or they were deliberately hidden at the time.

The most likely thing is that there were no such expectations, they could not have arisen in such a short time. Just before the elections, they decided to create false grounds for raising pensions.

What will they do if those expectations do not come true tomorrow? At the moment, there is no reason to claim that the budget revenues will be more than planned and that they will cover the costs of raising pensions.

The other question is what will happen if these revenues are not received, should we say that the increase of pensions should be done retrospectively?

Naturally, until the elections do something, they will cut money here and there to cover the costs of raising pensions. After the elections, the risks that the budget may face with servicing the entire financial burden are quite real. And at that time, both the payment of pensions and the fulfillment of other budget expenses will become problematic.

It is an adventure to put the budget in front of such danger for political purposes. But it is not for today’s rulers of Armenia.

Without grounds and justifications, they claim that 40 billion of the 79 billion necessary for increasing pensions will be filled at the expense of additional taxes from the budget. Where did they get that the tax revenues of the approved budget will exceed by 40 billion? Nikol Pashinyan is so entangled in his lies that he makes blatantly false statements at the government meeting. He says that last year we collected 30 billion drams more tax revenue than planned, and none of the members of the government dares to correct his “innocent” mistake. According to last year’s approved budget, they planned to collect 2 trillion 720 billion drams, they collected 2 trillion 725 billion in taxes. They didn’t make a single 30 billion overdraft. Where did he get that the tax revenues of the budget exceeded by 30 billion last year?

With such false justifications, they cherish the hope that this year they will collect at least 40 billion drams more in taxes than planned and with that amount they will cover half of the costs of increasing pensions. The first 2 months of the tax year are already in the past and the taxes collected in those months do not give such grounds at all. What’s more, in the near future, both economic and budgetary problems may worsen due to regional instability and the expected activation of internal political processes in Armenia.

They intend to take the other half of the money needed for increasing pensions from the reserve fund. They forgot what the reserve fund is for.

The reserve fund is for stabilizing the country’s economic and financial situation in case of force majeure. And what are the current rulers of Armenia doing? They are trying to solve their political and reproduction problems with the reserve fund money, ignoring possible future dangers.

HAKOB KOCHARYAN

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