Author: Ekmekjian Janet

YEREVAN TO ADOPT NEW ANTI-TRAFFICKING PLAN
By Karine Kalantarian

Radio Liberty, Czech Rep.
Sept 5 2007

The Armenian authorities have stepped up the prosecution of individuals
involved in human trafficking and will soon adopt a new three-year plan
of actions against the illegal practice, officials said on Wednesday.

A similar program was already launched in 2004 and supposedly completed
at the end of last year.

The Armenian government began tackling the problem under pressure
from the United States which has repeatedly described Armenia has a
major source of illegal transport of women for sexual exploitation
abroad. But despite its efforts, Armenia remains on a special "watch
list" of nations which the U.S. State Department says are not doing
enough to combat trafficking.

Speaking at a seminar in Yerevan, senior Armenian officials insisted
that the government has already made progress in reducing the scale
of the practice. Deputy Foreign Minister Armen Bayburtian said it
is currently discussing and will approve the new anti-trafficking
program later this month.

According to Deputy Prosecutor-General Mnatsakan Sargsian, the number
of trafficking-related criminal cases more than doubled to 32 between
2004 and 2006. He said law-enforcement bodies opened 20 such cases
in the first half of this year.

Sargsian did not specify the number of individuals imprisoned or
fined for such crimes.

In an annual global report on human trafficking released last year,
the State Department said that the Armenian authorities "failed to
impose significant penalties for convicted traffickers" and that
only a handful of them ended up in jail. Report also pointed to an
independent journalistic investigation that implicated a member of
a special anti-trafficking unit at the Prosecutor-General’s Office
in extorting bribes from Armenian pimps and prostitutes operating in
the United Arab Emirates.

The Prosecutor-General’s Office said earlier in 2006 that it has
investigated the allegations and found them baseless.

Dzyunik Aghajanian, another senior Foreign Ministry official
attending the seminar, said Washington exaggerates the seriousness
of the problem in Armenia for political reasons. "We really have
[trafficking-related] problems in terms of public awareness and in
relation to the law-enforcement and judicial systems," she said. "But
they are not so serious as to justify our classification [by the
State Department.] Very often such classifications have a certain
political subtext."

Bayburtian, for his part, claimed that the U.S. and other Western
donors are not always helping Armenia to fight against local
prostitution rings. "We see numerous duplications and other forced
actions that do not take into sufficient consideration the country’s
priorities. This somewhat hinders the effectiveness of our efforts both
at the local and international levels," he said without elaborating.

PM SERGE SARGSYAN RECEIVED THE DELEGATION OF FRENCH SOCIALISTS

armradio.am
06.09.2007 14:27

RA Prime Minister Serge Sargsyan today received the First Secretary
of the French Socialist Party Francois Hollande and the delegation
headed by him.

Welcoming the visit of the French Socialist Party delegation to our
country, Prime Minister Serge Sargsyan noted that it will further
the reinforcement of the Armenian-French relations and development
of cooperation.

During the meeting the parties appreciated the active development
of bilateral relations over the recent years, which is proved by the
conduct of numerous arrangements within the framework of the Year of
Armenia in France and the Year of France in Armenia, the reciprocal
visits of the Presidents of the two countries, etc.

At the guest’s request, PM Serge Sargsyan presented the current
political and economic situation in Armenia, the perspectives of
development, the relations with neighbors, Armenia’s stance on
the solution of existing problems, as well as the opportunities for
reinforcement of Armenian-French relations in the economic, political,
educational, cultural and a number of other fields. Speaking about
regional problems, the Prime Minister dwelt on the settlement of
the Karabakh conflict, presenting Armenia’s approaches. Mr. Sargsyan
expressed hope that the conflict will be resolved though negotiations
with the mediation of the OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs, stressing that
there can be no military solution to the issue.

During the meeting Mr. Hollande turned to the issue of recognition
of the Armenian Genocide, noting that the bill adopted by the French
Parliament was the initiative of the Socialist Party. According to
him, currently the Party is working out a new draft law on criminal
punishment for the denial of the Armenian Genocide.

At the end of the meeting the Prime Minister wished success to the
Socialist Party of France, expressing hope that this respective
political organization will continue to endorse the reinforcement of
relations between the two countries.

NEXT KARABAKH FORUM TO BE HELD IN BAKU ON 25 SEPTEMBER
Trend corr. S.Ilhamgizi

Trend News Agency, Azerbaijan
Sept 4 2007

The Union for Democracy will hold the next Karabakh Forum in Baku on
25 September, the Union reported.

The Union has held three Krabakh Forums. A package of proposals
concerning the settlement of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict on
Nagorno-Karabakh has been developed and submitted to the Presidential
Administration.

A new method on settling the conflict will be developed during the
next forum.

The conflict between the two countries of the South Caucasus began in
1988 due to territorial claims by Armenia against Azerbaijan. Armenia
has occupied 20% of Azerbaijan including the Nagorno-Karabakh region
and its seven surrounding districts. Since 1992, these territories
have been under the occupation of the Armenian Forces. In 1994,
Azerbaijan and Armenia signed a ceasefire agreement at which time
active hostilities ended. The co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group (
Russia, France and USA) are currently holding peaceful negotiations.

WILL FUEL OIL ISSUE ACTIVISTS BE PROSECUTED?

Lragir
Sept 4 2007
Armenia

On September 4 Hrant Bagratyan and Shavarsh Kocharyan had an
interesting debate at the Hayeli club. In evaluating the country’s
economy they had a retrospective look at the period when Hrant
Bagratyan was government, and Shavarsh Kocharyan was radical
opposition. And it started when Hrant Bagratyan said with regard to
the low rate and wrong track for development that one of the reasons
was that the government attended to other problems, criticizing the
former leadership, bringing up the case of fuel oil.

Hrant Bagratyan said the case of fuel oil turned to have been put
up, they could not prove, but they did not apologize to the former
leadership either. Although, Bagratyan said when the office of
prosecutor found out that the case of fuel oil was put up, one of the
activists of the case Arshak Sadoyan apologized, and Bagratyan could
offer it in written form. Generally, the ex-prime minister of Armenia
thinks everyone who has initiated this case should be responsible.

Shavarsh Kocharyan said usually the thief is punished and not the
person who reveals the theft. Hrant Bagratyan retorted that Shavarsh
Kocharyan is playing a political game, and he is not a thief. "It’s
your indices, it was under your government when they brought up the
question of reserves in the years of energy crisis which would be
enough to supply electricity. Where did it all disappear?" Shavarsh
Kocharyan asked.

Hrant Bagratyan explained what happened regarding energy generation
in those years. "In 1992-1993 5-6 billion kWh energy was generated.

6.5 billion was generated since 1996. I was prime minister from 1995
for two years, there was 24 hour power supply after that. What is the
problem? The problem is that not only the electricity balance should
be viewed. The energy balance should also be viewed," Hrant Bagratyan
says. He adds that electricity, central heating, diesel fuel and the
number of heated apartments should be taken into consideration. Hrant
Bagratyan also said the question of fuel oil should be dismissed
because in the years of energy crisis electricity was generated on
gas. Hrant Bagratyan repeated that all the people who brought up the
case of fuel oil should be responsible.

Turkey and Armenia: What Jews should do

LENNY BEN-DAVID , THE JERUSALEM POST
Sep. 4, 2007

As one of the first authors and editors of Myths and Facts, a Record
of the Arab-Israeli Conflict I know what it means to instinctively
jump to defend Israel’s reputation. In the face of barrages of canards
and accusations, we countered that Israel did not expel millions of
Palestinians, did not commit wanton massacres, and did not use an
omnipotent Washington lobby to subvert American interests in the
Middle East.

I was one of the founders of HonestReporting.com, where we encouraged
tens of thousands of activists to leap to Israel’s defense when
publications and networks failed to label terrorists correctly, blamed
Israel unfairly or distorted Israel’s defensive campaign to stop
suicide bombing attacks.

Israel’s defenders intuitively denounced and challenged the
Ahmadinejads and David Irvings of the world, who denied the fact of a
genocidal campaign against the Jews that we call the Holocaust. We
recognize that these anti-Semitic deniers seek to delegitimize the
Jewish state of Israel and lay the groundwork for another attempt to
wipe out the Jewish people.

All nations have sacred memories and traditions surrounding their
creation and their sacrifices. These are national legends that take on
mythic proportions about the nations’ founding fathers and the
circumstances of the nations’ formation. Sometimes, and often after
difficult introspection, citizens recognize that their histories and
heroes are not all black-and-white, and that a true national narrative
involves a rich palette of greys as well. But that realization
requires a national maturation, one that also demands the cognitive
involvement of all parties to the narrative.

SUCH AN introspection took place among Americans in their historical
narrative some 35 years ago. The publication of Dee Brown’s Bury My
Heart at Wounded Knee in 1970 upset a nation used to Hollywood’s
version of valiant and white Indian-fighters taming the Wild West. The
slaughter of Native Americans – "Indians" – and the military campaigns
against the Navajos, Apaches, Sioux and Cheyenne tribes between 1860
and 1880 were eventually woven into the American historical tapestry.
Finally in 2004 the National Museum of the American Indian opened on
the National Mall of Washington D.C.

A similar museum to the African-American experience is still missing
on the Mall. While the American public obviously knew of the history
of slavery in the United States and Abraham Lincoln "setting slaves
free," it probably wasn’t until the release of Alex Haley’s Roots and
its romanticized television version in the 1970s that many Americans
came to grips with the nation’s racist, supremacist past.

Indeed, American historians still debate the nature of the
relationship between the iconic Founding Father Thomas Jefferson and
his quadroon slave and purported mistress, Sally Hemings. It is
difficult for some Jefferson idolaters to fathom such a pairing. Two
hundred years after Jefferson and Hemings spent time together,
Hemings’s descendants underwent DNA testing to determine whether
Jefferson sired Hemings’s children.

National legends and myths are not easily shaken.

IN ISRAEL, some of our national beliefs were stirred by the so-called
new historians, who challenged many of our basic historical
narratives. Perhaps the Israeli public is mature enough to examine the
country’s origin, but the rejection of the new historians’
broad-stroke claims also reflects the failure of our Palestinian
interlocutors to accept the notion that our intertwined histories are
not black-and-white. Most Palestinians see no grey.

"There comes a stage in any revolutionary process when the movement
relaxes its hold on the official narrative," historian Benny Morris
told The Washington Post earlier this year. "The difference is that
when that moment came in Israel, our long struggle with the Arabs
remained an existential threat, as it still does today."

For the Palestinians, their nakba is their Truth; their "right of
return" is their messianic vision; and their concept of any Jewish
history in the land is that it is a total fabrication. To confront
such absolutist, irredentist claims, Israel’s defenders cannot afford
to equivocate.

AS AN adviser for five years to the Turkish embassy in Washington,
until earlier this summer, I understood why the Turkish government and
people jump to deny claims that their ancestors committed a "genocide"
against Armenians some 90 years ago.

It occurred during a maelstrom of battles and massacres. It was
allegedly carried out by founding fathers who were bringing their
country into an enlightened 20th century. And it was waged against an
enemy guilty of the still unspoken crime of massacring hundreds of
thousands of Muslims and thousands of Jews.

Armenians and Turks see no shades of grey, and for now, at least,
demands are made only of Turkey to change its monochromatic narrative.

Israel’s government and Jews in the United States must be careful when
treading through the minefield of Armenian claims against Turkey.
Jewish leaders in Armenia reported that they have heard local claims
that Jews organized the 1915 massacres of Armenians
().

There are accounts of Armenian massacres, between 1914 and 1920, of
2.5 million of Armenia’s Muslim population
().

Recently, Mountain Jews in Azerbaijan requested assistance in building
a monument to 3,000 Azeri Jews killed by Armenians in 1918 in a pogrom
about which little is known
( hives/000730.html).

AND WITHIN our own lifetime – just some 15 years ago – Armenian troops
massacred hundreds of Azeri Muslims. This from Newsweek, March 16,
1992:

"Azerbaijan was a charnel house again last week: a place of mourning
refugees and dozens of mangled corpses dragged to a makeshift morgue
behind the mosque. They were ordinary Azerbaijani men, women and
children of Khojaly, a small village in war-torn Nagorno-Karabakh
overrun by Armenian forces on Feb. 25-26. Many were killed at close
range while trying to flee; some had their faces mutilated, others
were scalped."

Both Turks and Armenians have their grisly tales of persecution and
their vehement denials of genocidal designs. It is the task of the
Jewish community to express sympathy for all the victims and outrage
at all the perpetrators on both sides of the conflict. The US Congress
and the Jewish community should encourage historians on both sides to
objectively examine what took place.

Nations mature when they can look at themselves in the mirror and see
the grey, the wrinkles and the blemishes.

The writer served as Deputy Chief of Mission in Israel’s Embassy in Washington.

Source: 527835&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull

The Star-Ledger (Newark, New Jersey)
August 31, 2007 Friday
FINAL EDITION

What’ll it be, Mac?
Gregory Derelian brings experience to bartender role

PETER FILICHIA, STAR-LEDGER STAFF

NEW JERSEY STAGE The Time of Your Life Where: Shakespeare Theatre of
New Jersey, F.M. Kirby Shakespeare Theatre, Drew University, 36
Madison Ave, Madison When: Previews begin Tuesday, opens Sept. 8-30.
Tuesdays at 7:30 p.m., Wednesdays-Fridays at 8 p.m., Saturdays at 2
and 8 p.m., and Sundays at 2 and 7 p.m.

How much: $28-$52. Call (973) 408-5600 or visit

New Yorker Gregory Derelian, 35, is in his ninth season with the
Shakespeare Festival of New Jersey. While he’s most often been in
productions of the Bard – Petruchio in "The Taming of the Shrew,"
Mark Antony in "Julius Caesar," Macduff in "Macbeth," Cassio in
"Othello" and Caliban in "The Tempest" – he now finds himself in a
far more modern play: William Saroyan’s 1940 Pulitzer Prize-winning
classic, "The Time of Your Life."

Starting Tuesday in Madison, he’ll portray the owner and namesake of
Nick’s Pacific Street Saloon. We caught up with him not while he was
hanging over a bar, but over a table, on a lunch break.

Q. Is Nick happy with what he’s doing?

A. I think so. He’s got himself a place where no one’s competing with
anyone else, and everyone believes in "Live and let live." He likes
that he can provide a haven where people can just come in and be
themselves. It’s a kind of public service. That it’s not so demanding
a job and that he’s used to it appeals to him, too.

Q. How did you discover the Shakespeare Theatre?

A. I actually went to Drew, right on the campus where this theater
is. One night I came over to see "Twelfth Night" with Paul Mullins –
who’s directing "The Time of Your Life" – as Feste. To this day, it’s
still the best production of the play I’ve ever seen, and Paul
remains the best Feste.

Q. So did you say to yourself, "Someday I plan to be on that stage"?

A. Well, I’d hoped to. I was a double major, taking English as well
as theater.

Q. But the English was just something to fall back on?

A. Supposedly. I don’t know if you can fall back on English.

Q. Did you ever use it in any way – teach, write?

A. No, after I graduated in 1995, I moved to New York to look for
acting work. I applied for a job as a short-order cook because that’s
something I can do.

Q. Did you get the job?

A. Actually, while I was being interviewed by the manager, the owner
came in and – right in front of me – fired the bartender. He turned
to me and said, "Can you bartend?" I said, "No." When he said, "Can
you learn?" I said "Yes."

Q. Wait a minute – you’re playing a role you’ve in essence played in
real life? Was that a defining factor in making made Paul Mullins
pick you?

A. I can’t imagine that it wasn’t. I’m able to add things, like the
way a bartender looks over some-one who comes through the door. The
interesting thing about that bar in Brooklyn is that it was much like
Nick’s – the people who came in stayed all night, got drunk, and told
me their life stories – only to come in the next night and do it all
over again, forgetting they’d said anything to me in the first place.

Q. You’re still there?

A. No, now I’m at a place on Hudson Street where I deal with young
urban professionals. That’s much more fun, though I’m starting to
feel that they’re very much younger than I am. The good thing is I
only do it one night a week, because I don’t need to do it as much.
I’ve been on Broad-way ("Metamorphoses") and off-Broadway, too ("The
Hairy Ape"), so in a way, it’s a fun night that gets me out of the
house.

Q. Isn’t "Derelian" a name of Armenian descent?

A. It is.

Q. Given that this play is by a writer of Armenian descent, did you
have an affinity with William Saroyan while growing up?

A. No, there wasn’t much of an Armenian sensibility in my house-hold,
maybe because only my fa-ther’s of Armenian descent, or maybe because
it’s been a long time since my grandfather came over from Armenia and
changed his name to Davis so he’d seem more American. Only after he
was well-established here did he take back his original name.

Q. What happens after this play closes?

A> I’m cast in "Antony and Cleo-patra" in New York, which was great
until the actress who was to play Cleopatra (Christine Baranski)
dropped out. Now I’m not sure they’ll even do the show. You know the
actor’s life.

Q. What other roles would you love to play?

A. Chris Keller in "All My Sons." I played him in high school in
Santa Cruz, but I’d like another shot. Though "Coriolanus" isn’t a
great play, it’s a great role, so I’d like it, even though it might
not be as much fun for the audience as it would be for me. I’ll try
any-thing from "An Enemy of the People" to Hamlet.

Q. Anything that’ll get you away from bartending?

A. That, too.

Peter Filichia may be reached at [email protected] or (973)
392-5995.

THE COOPERATION PROGRAM WITH THE NATIONAL ASSEMBLY DISCUSSED

National Assembly of RA
Aug 31 2007
Armenia

On August 29 the President of the National Assembly of the
Republic of Armenia Mr. Tigran Torosyan received Mr. Rudolf Perina,
U.S. Charge d’affaires a.i. in Armenia. The discussion of the program
of cooperation with the National Assembly, due to the presented
proposals beforehand, developed by the USA Embassy, and according to
the arrangement was the pivot of the meeting.

Mr. Perina noted that the National Assembly is one of the important
parts of democracy in Armenia and the USA Embassy wishes to be useful
as far as it is possible in the deepening of democracy activities.

Touching upon the proposed program, Mr. Tigran Torosyan, the President
of the National Assembly thanked for the immediate response and the
concrete proposals and has presented his considerations. In particular,
in the aspect of the educational visits of the Staff of the National
Assembly Mr. Tigran Torosyan, the President of the National Assembly,
highlighted the long-term business trips of the small groups of
people in comparison with the short-term business trips of the big
groups of employees, which will enable the deep and comprehensive
examination of the activity of the parliaments of other countries,
which will be purposeful and useful. The President of the National
Assembly emphasized the importance of creation of the opportunities
for education for the employees of the staff of the National Assembly
at universities of the USA.

The expansion of the opportunities of the library of the National
Assembly was also highlighted, in particular a program was proposed
to realize translation in the Armenian language and the edition of
some books, aiming to update the library of the National Assembly
by the foreign magazines and periodicals. Mr. Torosyan also touched
upon the necessity of the laws to be translated, and setting them
on the official site of the National Assembly and the necessity
of the qualified translation of the bills, expert conclusions and
other official documents, having emphasized the importance of the
assistance of the USA Embassy. The problem of preparation of the
expert conclusions of the draft laws of the laws has been especially
highlighted.

Mr. Torosyan has noted, that there are two ways for the solution of
that problem: business trip for 1-2 years to increasethe professional
qualification of the employees of the corresponding management or
the establishment of a center, where the best specialists of various
spheres will be includedon contractual base and on more attractive
conditions (there is a similar experience in the parliaments of other
countries, in particular in Poland). Mr. Torosyan has assessed the
role of the cooperation for the improvement of the works of the
National Assembly, noting that everything should be done for the
National Assembly to really become one of the influential centers
of democracy and political idea, as one of the important problems
ofArmenia is the realization of multi-party system and the deepening
of the knowledge of the political and party figures.

Mr. Rudolf Perina, U.S. Charge d’affaires a.i. in Armenia expressed
gratitude to the President of the National Assembly for the interesting
and efficient proposals,which should be additionally investigated
for their realization and specification of financial opportunities
according to requirements of the legislation of the USA. An arrangement
for one more meeting was achieved for the final specification of the
program of cooperation.

Highlighting the upcoming presidential elections through the
international standards, during the meeting, there was also a touch
upon the improvement works of the Electoral Code. Mr. Tigran Torosyan,
the President of the National Assembly noted that the conclusions of
the OSCE ODIHR and the CE Venice Commission have been already received
and studied, which will be debated at mid September.

ACCORDING TO RA NATIONAL ASSEMBLY, PACE RAPPORTEUR EDWARD O’HARA’S TRIP TO REGION FAILS BECAUSE OF AZERBAIJAN

Noyan Tapan
Aug 31, 2007

YEREVAN, AUGUST 31, NOYAN TAPAN. In connection with failure of the
PACE rapporteur Edward O’Hara’s visit to the region with the aim of
studying the state of cultural legacy of the South Caucasus, the PR
Department of the RA National Assembly on August 31 issued a statement
which refutes false explanations spread by the Azerbaijani mass media
and presents the truth.

According to the statement, it was the Armenian delegation in PACE
that came up with the initiative – in connection with destruction
of khachkars in Nakhijevan. Later the PACE commission accepted the
proposal of the Azerbaijani side to organize that regional visit.

It is noted that Edward O’Hara’s trip to the region with the aim of
studying the problem of preservation of cultural legacy was envisaged
years ago but it was delayed for various reasons. The trip, which
was to start on August 29 – from Azerbaijan, was being prepared
for two months: the trip program was developed, while Armenia and
Nagorno Karabakh expressed their assistance for implementation of the
rapporteur’s visit. Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia sent in advance
the lists of those monuments which must be examined in the three
South Caucasian countries, the NKR and the Nakhijevan Autonomous
Republic. The rapporteurs have already decided which monuments on
the list they would study.

"According to a preliminary agreement, the programs of the visit to
Armenia and Nagorno Karabakh were to be sent in the second half of
August 28.

However, the commission secretary’s letter saying that the visit was
cancelled was received prior to that. The reason was the following:
on August 28 the head of the Azerbaijani delegation in PACE issued a
statement, according to which the PACE rapporteur must visit Nagorno
Karabakh via Azerbaijan, whereas prior to that all details had been
clarified through the NKR representative to Armenia, and the RA
National Assembly was to provide transport and other assistance for
traveling to Nagorno Karabakh. By putting forward requirements to the
rapporteur at the last moment, Azerbaijan in fact failed that trip,
and all aires and graces that it was a next in turn postponement –
which is stated in the Azerbaijani press – do not correspond to
reality," the statement reads.

The Secretary General of PACE Mateo Sorinas sent a letter, in which he
informed the RA National Assembly speaker Tigran Torosian that Edward
O’Hara’s visit was cancelled. It was noted in the letter that one of
the causes of the visit’s failure was the problem of entry into Nagorno
Karabakh, that is, what was announced by Azerbaijan on August 28.

According to the statement, "it is obvious that Azerbaijanis are
preventing the rapporteur’s trip to the region in every possible way
because it would be revealed during that trip that many Armenian
monuments have been and are being destroyed in Nakhijevan and
Azerbaijan and that the Azerbaijani statements and leaflets about
destruction of "Azerbaijani" monuments are just aspersion."

The RA National Assembly have expressed a willingness to assist with
the trip at any time.

IRD ARMENIA AND U.S. DEPARTMENT OF STATE COMPLETE SCHOOL RENOVATION PROJECTS

Lragir, Armenia
Aug 30 2007

On August 30, IRD Armenia held a ceremony marking the opening of
a renovated cafeteria and kitchen at Yerevan Special School #16
for vision impaired children, the press service of the U.S. Embassy
reported. The funding of 10,000 USD for the renovation was provided by
the U.S. Department of State and the project was administered by IRD
Armenia. Co-funding to the project was provided by LDS Charities in
the amount of 4,400 USD. Ambassador Rudolf Perina, Charge d’Affaires
a.i. of the U.S. Embassy to Armenia, the directors of LDS charities,
representatives of the Ministry of Labor and Social Issues,
international NGOs, and local authorities participated in the ceremony.

IRD is a charitable, non-profit, non-governmental organization that
implements projects in Asia, Latin America, the Balkans, Eastern
Europe, and the Middle East. IRD’s mission is to reduce the suffering
and improve the livelihood of the world’s most vulnerable groups
through relief and development projects. IRD started its operations
in Armenia in 2001. Currently, IRD is implementing the Essential
Medical Commodities Distribution project, which assists vulnerable
populations through medical and social institutions, as well as NGOs.

For several years IRD has cooperated with the Special Boarding School
#16 in the Salt Mines district of Yerevan by providing them with
hygienic and school kits, food items and clothing. Recently, the U.S.

Department of State provided funding so IRD could renovate the premises
of the school to improve the students’ quality of life.

THREE POLES TO BE FORMED INSIDE THE OPPOSITION
Kima Yeghyazaryan

Hayots Ashkharh Daily, Armenia
Aug 28 2007

Interview with politician Gerasim Barseghyan

"Mr. Barseghyan, the Armenian pan-National Movement currently appears
to be the most active party on the political arena, as it never
misses the occasion to announce that it is going to participate in
the presidential elections with a candidate of its own. Do you think
the representatives of the former Government will manage to return to
politics and extract an agreement from Levon Ter-Petrosyan in terms
of proposing his candidacy?"

"If you remember, there were such manifestations before the previous
Presidential elections as well, and society seemed to be waiting day
by day for L. Ter-Petrosyan to make a statement on his returning to
politics. Of course, such conversations were unfounded at the beginning
of 2003, since, by his political posture, the first President made
a more passive response to them. His return was much less probable
then. And the things developed just that way, i.e. he didn’t make a
decision to return.

Currently, such conversations do really have some grounds, becasue we
see that the first President of the Republic has recently been having
quite active communications. In the meantime, such communications take
place not only with his co-thinkers but also with the acting diplomatic
circles (mainly American). But to say that this is a relevant reason
and hence consider the rumors about his return substantiated, will
not be quite proper.

I believe L. Ter-Petrosyan will do a real calculation of the main
risks existing currently. There is a kind of a re-calculation problem
here. He has to find out whether the rumors about public support
correspond to reality, as presented to him by the activists belonging
to and supporting the views of the Armenian pan-National Movement.

I think that by comparing his potentials after the regional visits
he will make a political decision. Frankly speaking, I consider the
probability of his return in the status of a Presidential candidate
very little (in this case, he has a 20 per cent probability).

Of course, considering the peculiarities of these particular
Presidential elections, it is not ruled out that the factions
supporting L.T. P. will, nonetheless, manage to talk him into returning
to politics.

After all, there is the following argument as well. They may tell him
that this is his last chance, and if he doesn’t return to politics,
he will not only give up his political career ultimately, but also
put them – the people who have remained faithful to his principles
for around 10 years on end – at stake.

I think this is a more relevant argument. That is, they may say that
they haven’t ‘advertised’ any activists during the past years and
pinned their hopes in Mr. Ter-Petrosyan only. And they may argue that
by refusing to advance his candidacy now, L.T. P. is actually making
them become faced with a serious situation. This is an argument.

But I think L. Ter-Petrosyan realizes very well that he has very little
chances. Although he stands out from the other, future pro-Opposition
candidates in the positive light, it is not enough for him to stand
in real competition with the main pro-Government candidate."

"Anyway, what kind of shifts and unifications will be possible inside
the pro-Opposition camp, should Mr. Ter-Petrosyan make up his mind
to advance his candidacy?"

"It is clear that Mr, Ter-Petrosyan will not manage to consolidate the
whole pro-Opposition camps and act as a united candidate. As to the
fact that he will be the pivotal or the main candidate representing the
Opposition, there is a greater likelihood in this respect. Because,
I repeat, he differs from the others in the positive light in terms
of his political experience, his real supporters’ activeness and
his means.

However, it should not be ruled out that the team is in control of
certain material and financial resources. And those resources are
currently decisive in the political process.

I think the pro-Opposition camp will consist of three poles. I repeat,
Mr. Ter-Petrosyan will occupy a pivotal position, and the factions,
which are some way or another dissatisfied with the current policy,
will unite around him. And the political factions guided by the
‘at-least-something’ option, will also unite around him.

The second pole is most probably represented by Vazgen Manoukyan.

No matter how much some people are trying to classify him as the
second activist following Mr. Ter-Petrosyan and saying that he will
join the latter under certain circumstances, I don’t think anything
of the kind will happen. Let’s not forget about the events that took
place in 1996, a date that had a crucial role in V. Manoukyan’s career.

And the third pole will most probably be represented by Arthur
Baghdasaryan. I think that a certain number of factions will
unite around A. Baghdasaryan. Simultaneously, there will be some
self-promoting candidates, so to say, and they will join the campaign
by acting as ‘lonely wolves’ (Aram Karapetyan, Tigran Karapetyan
and others).

I think more than 10 candidates (including the ARFD candidate) will be
nominated. And if their number exceeds 10, there will, in my opinion,
be a 50 – 50 likelihood for the pro-Government candidate to be elected
in a single stage.