Author: Eduard Nalbandian

While many in Armenia seek to overcome the shock from the violent demise of the self-proclaimed Artsakh (Nagorno-Karabakh) Republic and support around 101,000 forced displaced persons who entered Armenia in the past ten days, experts and politicians are taking steps to assess the geopolitical implications of the recent events for the South Caucasus. Some anticipate a significant weakening of Russia’s position in the region. The absence of Armenians in Artsakh may result in the withdrawal of Russian peacekeepers from the area, if not now, then at least after November 2025. Meanwhile, the destruction of the republic triggered additional anti-Russian sentiments in Armenia, leading civil society representatives to publicly demand the withdrawal of Armenia from the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), pushing out the Russian military base and border troops from Armenia. According to this logic, the destruction of Artsakh may also facilitate the signature of a peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan, which will pave the way for normalization of Armenia-Turkey relations. Normalizing relations with Azerbaijan and Turkey will make it easier for Armenia to start moving away from Russia, as Yerevan will not fear additional Turkish and Azerbaijani attacks.

However, as some begin to imagine a peaceful South Caucasus free of the Russian presence as a result of the destruction of Artsakh, many argue that the tragic end of the 35-year struggle by Armenians to live in their homeland without intimidation and fear will only bring more conflicts and suffering to the region. Many Armenians in Armenia and abroad are fed up with the second humiliation in three years, and they will do everything to stop the continuing demise of Armenia and reverse course. Azerbaijan and Turkey will not be satisfied by the destruction of Artsakh and will put all their efforts into gaining additional concessions from Armenia. The list of Azerbaijani demands is vast – enclaves, routes to connect Azerbaijan with Nakhichevan and Turkey via Armenia, and others. According to this scenario, the next primary target of Azerbaijan will be Armenia, and Baku will consider new incursions into Armenia similar to what happened in September 2022, or even to a greater extent, to force Armenia to accept its demands. 

September 2020 in Syunik, the road between Kapan and Kajaran (Photo: Dr. Benyamin Poghosyan)

Assessing when and how Azerbaijan will launch its next attack against Armenia is challenging. However, if and when Azerbaijan decides to attack Armenia, it will have profound implications for regional geopolitics. Azerbaijan will attack either the Syunik or Vayots Dzor regions, threatening to reach Nakhichevan and effectively splitting Armenia in two. In this case, only Russia and Iran will have a real possibility to take any actions on the ground. Neither the U.S. nor European countries have any troops deployed in Armenia, and they have zero political desire, will or logistical capacities to send troops to Armenia to fight against Azerbaijan. The EU has a civilian mission deployed in Armenia. However, in the event of a launch of large-scale hostilities, the observers cannot do anything and would be evacuated to Yerevan or perhaps out of Armenia. The EU and the U.S. may use extensive diplomacy, including phone calls, statements and threats of sanctions. However, the recent behavior of Azerbaijan proves that more is needed to have a tangible impact on Baku’s decision-making process. 

Russian troops are in Armenia, and some are deployed in the country’s southern region. Will Russia intervene militarily to protect Armenia, which, despite a growing bilateral relations crisis, is still a de jure ally of Russia? It is challenging to provide a definite answer, but given the ongoing war in Ukraine and Azerbaijan and Turkey’s importance for Russia, Moscow probably would like to mediate diplomatically, seeking to organize another summit of leaders in Russia to send a message to everyone once again that Russia still calls the shots in the Caucasus. Russia would like to use the situation to finalize its vision of restoring communications in the region, convincing Armenia to accept the control of Russian border troops over the transportation routes passing from Azerbaijan to Nakhichevan via Armenia, as was envisaged by the November 10, 2020 statement.

In case of an Azerbaijani attack, Iran may intervene militarily, seeking to prevent the creation of the “NATO – Turan” corridor, the term Iranians use to refer to the so-called “Zangezur corridor.” Iran has the necessary military capabilities to do that. However, direct military intervention may create the danger of a military clash with Turkey, which signed a strategic alliance agreement with Azerbaijan in June 2021. It is also unlikely that Iran will launch military actions in the South Caucasus without Russia’s consent, and Russia has no interest in seeing an Iranian military presence in the South Caucasus. Iran’s most likely response would be supplying weapons to Armenia and possibly signing an Iran-Armenia agreement of defense cooperation.

Thus, the most probable outcome of a new Azerbaijani incursion against Armenia will not be more anti-Russian sentiments in Armenia, the start of the actual process of leaving CSTO, the removal of the Russian military base and border troops from Armenia and the increase of Western influence in the region. On the contrary, it will result in more Russian and, potentially, Iranian influence over Armenia and reduced Western presence.

I always thought about Barbie as a controversial symbol of unrealistic body standards for women. Yet the recent surge of Barbie’s popularity following the movie release has opened my eyes to the ways Barbie can inspire. I’ve been reflecting on her diverse range of careers. Barbie’s talents extend to singing, dancing, acting, playing musical instruments, excelling in professional sports and even thriving in the STEM field. She’s navigated low-paying jobs to ascend to self-sufficiency, all while battling crime and fires as a public servant, parachuting from planes as a paratrooper and successfully venturing into entrepreneurship. Impressively, she reportedly held an executive position a full nine years before any woman became a CEO of a Fortune 500 company.

Beyond the glitz and smiles lies a more complex narrative. Barbie may also grapple with the challenges of making ends meet, adapting to a new culture and language as an immigrant, confronting mental health issues, persevering through physical obstacles and caring for her parents and extended family. Does this sound familiar? Armenian women have a history of shattering barriers and persist in achieving the extraordinary every day. They’ve excelled in the arts, business, medicine, science, engineering, politics, public service, transportation, education and sports. Many of their stories remain untold, but their presence is undeniable.

Let’s face it – Barbie could be Armenian. 

She embodies resilience, ambition and intelligence. With her guiding mantra, “You can be anything,” she stands tall as a role model for young girls. The glass ceilings that persist in the United States can be shattered by the young Armenian girls of today, who will become the trailblazing women of tomorrow. 

Join me in a forward-looking conversation as we envision a dialogue with Barbi Marsoobian, the first Armenian American woman to participate in the 2040 all-female spacewalk on Mars.

Barbie magazine, 1986

Me: Greetings and Parev Astronaut Barbi. My feet haven’t touched the ground since I learned we would be speaking. I can only imagine the exhilaration you felt when your entire body lifted off the Earth. It is 2040, and you have reached the summit for many young space enthusiasts, as well as an older generation like me who watched the first moon landing in black & white TV in 1969.  

When I was growing up, girls played with baby dolls and were encouraged to be nurses or teachers. While these are honorable professions, many of us yearned for broader paths. Over the years, we championed the pursuit of diverse careers for both our sons and daughters, instilling the belief that the sky was the limit. Not everyone took this as literally as you did! How would you describe the worldview that shaped your upbringing?

Barbi: I came into this world in 2000 as the 21st century dawned. During that time, the percentage of girls in STEM fields was relatively modest. In 2008, when I was eight years old, I experienced a defining moment – the 25th anniversary of the first American woman’s voyage into space. We watched a video about it at school. The sheer coolness of that event struck me profoundly, and at that precise instant, I resolved to become a space explorer. The astronaut’s name, Sally Ride, was even cool to me. Little did I know then that I would actually “ride” on Sally Ride’s coattails, as the saying goes.  

I wish I could claim that I played with the original, vintage Astronaut Barbie doll. Interestingly, the 1965 “Miss Astronaut” Barbie doll was issued four years before the first man on the moon and 18 years before the first American woman in space.

Me: What does being the first Armenian American in space mean to you?

Barbi: Strangely enough, it didn’t cross my mind until someone pointed it out. Despite being aware of the underrepresentation of Armenians and women in space, I never saw myself as a trailblazer in that sense. I’ll admit, I often struggled with not feeling “Armenian enough.” I’m half Armenian, a dropout from Armenian school, and I wasn’t immersed in the language. My paternal grandparents frequently recounted stories of the 1915 Armenian Genocide, but that seemed like a distant past to me. I lacked a connection until around 2023, during grad school, when I witnessed the generational trauma resurface as my grandparents observed the tragic recurrence of genocide affecting Armenians in Artsakh. The weight of this historical burden haunted me for years.

Much like how I saw myself in Sally Ride, I gradually began viewing myself as a trailblazer embodying all my identities, a role model for those who could relate to me. Recent decades have powerfully demonstrated that representation holds immense significance, extending beyond race and gender to encompass multifaceted identities – and indeed, Armenian identity matters.

Me: What guidance would you offer to the young Armenian girls and boys listening to this conversation?

Barbi: Visualize yourself as an onion, its layers gradually peeled away, or as a rose unveiling its depths. Envision the outermost layers, holding your different identities. Now, peel them back, layer by layer. If you have Armenian heritage, let that identity find a place among those layers. Even if it constitutes a small fraction, recognize its significance in preserving our heritage. If, like me, you need to peel back multiple layers to uncover your Armenian identity, that’s perfectly fine, as long as you eventually embrace it. For those who find their Armenian identity closer to the surface or just beneath it, extend patience to those who are still unraveling their layers. They haven’t yet forged that personal connection. Embrace them, demonstrate your pride and become role models for them.

Me: If you made a wish upon a star, what would it be?

Barbi: My heartfelt wish is for humanity to heed the pressing threat of global warming and acknowledge the fragility of our precious planet. But for the context of this conversation, and to keep it less complex, I’d wish for Mattel to recognize my identity and create a new doll named “Barbi – Armenian Astronaut,” with the headline, “Armenian Woman – First Human to Set Foot on Mars.”