Armenia is navigating one of its most consequential geopolitical transitions since independence in 1991, as it seeks to recalibrate security ties away from Moscow while courting Western support, says a report published by the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute.
Armenia is navigating one of its most consequential geopolitical transitions since independence in 1991, as it seeks to recalibrate security ties away from Moscow while courting Western support, as outlined in the paper by independent researcher Ebru Akgün. The report warns that the country is now at the centre of a “corridor war” between the US, Russia, and Iran, as new transport and energy initiatives highlight Yerevan’s strategic vulnerability.
The US-backed Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP) corridor is intended to link Azerbaijan with its Nakhchivan exclave through Armenian territory in Syunik province. Under Armenian sovereign and customs control, the project is intended to provide both economic incentives and an implicit security guarantee.
“By promoting this ‘Crossroads of Peace’ vision, the United States is attempting to create a vested economic interest in Armenia’s territorial integrity,” the report by the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute states.
However, the corridor also exposes Armenia to geopolitical friction. “the TRIPP corridor brings its own set of risks. While it offers an economic lifeline and a potential implicit security shield, it places Armenia at the heart of a “corridor war” between the West, Russia, and Iran,” the report says.
Tehran has expressed deep concern over increased Western influence in Syunik, viewing it as a “red line,” while Moscow considers corridors not overseen by its security services as a violation of the 2020 ceasefire.
“The TRIPP corridor is as much a security challenge as it is an opportunity, requiring Armenia to balance American ambitions against the immediate geographical realities of its neighbours,” the report notes.
Armenia has simultaneously begun modernising its military with contracts for French GM200 radars, Mistral anti-air missiles, Indian Akash-1S systems, and Pinaka rockets, moving away from a decades-long dependence on Russian hardware. Yet the report cautions that “buying Western” does not automatically translate into security. Existing Soviet-era command-and-control networks remain vulnerable to electronic surveillance and jamming, leaving Armenia exposed until full technical independence can be achieved.
Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has championed a “dual-track” approach, combining continued hosting of Russian forces with Western civilian instruments such as the European Union Monitoring Mission in Armenia (EUMA), which has been extended until 2028. The government argues the mix provides “visibility-based deterrence” but acknowledges that civilian missions cannot substitute for hard military guarantees.
The stakes are heightened ahead of Armenia’s June 7 parliamentary elections. The report warns that public support hinges on whether projects like TRIPP and arms modernisation translate into tangible security and economic benefits. “Armenia’s ability to sustain its independence will depend on whether its Western partners are willing to provide actionable security pathways that go beyond binoculars and political statements,” the report concludes.
With Moscow retaining control over much of Armenia’s gas infrastructure and Iran wary of northern transit routes, the country faces a narrow path: maintain sovereignty through Western engagement while avoiding provocation of its powerful neighbours.
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RFE/RL – Iran War Hampering Work On ‘Trump Route,’ Says Pashinian
- Shoghik Galstian
The continuing war between the United States and Israel and Iran will likely delay the planned opening of a U.S.-administered transit corridor for Azerbaijan through Armenia, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian said on Thursday.
“It is obvious that the TRIPP (Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity) is not a priority for the US administration today, at least, because we see what is happening and what they are busy with,” he told reporters. “Unfortunately, there is a high probability that it will affect [relevant] processes in terms of timelines because the [U.S.] government is focused on that issue.”
The TRIPP is due to connect Azerbaijan to its Nakhichevan exclave through Armenia’s strategic Syunik region bordering Iran. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan released the first major details of the TRIPP after meeting in Washington on January 13.
A joint U.S.-Armenian “implementation framework” confirmed that a special company controlled by the U.S. government will build a railway, a road, energy supply lines and other infrastructure along Armenia’s border with Iran and manage them for at least 49 years. Pashinian and Mirzoyan said late last year that work on that infrastructure will start this summer.
In the months leading up to the ongoing war, Iranian officials, notably a top aide to the late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, spoke out against the transit arrangement. They feared that it could undermine Armenian control of the border and lead to U.S. security presence there. Yerevan sought to allay their concerns. Some observers believe that Tehran will now be even more opposed to the TRIPP even if the war is stopped in the coming days or weeks.
Iran is a major trading partner of Armenia and one of the landlocked country’s two conduits to the outside world. Although the Armenian-Iranian border has remained largely open since the start of the U.S.-Israeli air strikes on the Islamic Republic on February 28, the conflict has reportedly led to a serious fall in cargo traffic between the two states.
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Armenia invites CIS IPA to join international observation of upcoming election
The CIS Interparliamentary Assembly has been invited by Armenian authorities to observe, alongside other international observers, the upcoming June 7 parliamentary elections, the CIS IPA Secretariat said in a press release.
The Secretariat said that the invitation was conveyed in a letter from Armenian Speaker of Parliament Alen Simonyan addressed to Valentina Matviyenko, Chair of the Board of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) IPA and Chair of the Federation Council of the Federal Assembly of Russia.
Simonyan invited the delegation of the CIS Interparliamentary Assembly to participate in the international observation of Armenia’s upcoming parliamentary elections.
“The authorities of the Republic of Armenia are committed to conducting the elections in accordance with democratic norms and standards, in the spirit of freedom, fairness, and transparency,” the letter specifically states, according to the Secretariat.
Published by Armenpress, original at
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Turkish press: Turkish Airlines launches Yerevan flights amid Armenia-Turkey t
Turkish Airlines launched direct flights between İstanbul and Yerevan on Wednesday, marking a new step in the slow rapprochement between Armenia and Turkey, which have never established formal diplomatic relations.
The move comes as Yerevan and Ankara pursue a cautious normalization after decades of hostility rooted in the World War I-era mass killings of Armenians in the Ottoman Empire and Ankara’s support for Azerbaijan in its long-running conflict with Armenia.
“Flights on the route Istanbul-Yerevan-Istanbul will be operated daily,” the Armenia International Airports company said after the inaugural flight of the Turkish flag carrier landed at Yerevan international airport.
The frequency of flights will gradually increase in the coming months, the statement added.
Armenia and Turkey have no diplomatic ties, and their land border has remained closed since 1993.
In 2021 the two countries appointed special envoys to explore a path toward reconciliation.
Direct commercial flights between the two countries resumed in 2022 after a two-year suspension.
Since then, Ankara and Yerevan have taken several limited steps aimed at improving ties.
They agreed to allow direct air cargo trade and to open the land border to third-country nationals, though the frontier has yet to reopen in effect.
In another modest confidence-building move, the two governments announced in December simplified visa procedures for holders of diplomatic, special and service passports.
© Agence France-Presse
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Azerbaijani Fitness Trainer Detained in Moscow On Armenia’s Request: A Tense International Incident
Imagine this: You're at the airport, bags packed, passport in hand, ready to board a flight back home. But instead of a boarding pass, you're handed a notice of detention. This nightmarish scenario became a stark reality for Kamil Zeynalli, a prominent Azerbaijani fitness trainer, at Moscow's Domodedovo airport. The incident, stemming from an international warrant issued by Armenia, has thrust Zeynalli into an unexpected spotlight, weaving a complex narrative of geopolitical tensions, personal liberty, and the unforeseen risks faced by individuals caught in the crossfire of international disputes.
As Zeynalli prepared to return to Baku, his journey took an abrupt and bewildering detour. Moscow police, acting on an international request from Armenia, detained him. Through a video shared on his Instagram account, Zeynalli detailed the surreal experience, revealing to his followers that he was now on an internationally wanted list. This news was not only a shock to Zeynalli but also to his vast following, igniting a flurry of concern and speculation across social media platforms.
Zeynalli's situation quickly evolved into a legal imbroglio. The Azerbaijani embassy in Russia has been closely monitoring the situation, highlighting the complex interplay of international law and diplomatic relations. The possibility of extradition to Armenia, as mentioned by the police, adds a layer of severity to Zeynalli's predicament. The intricacies of extradition processes, especially within the context of the historically tense relationship between Armenia and Azerbaijan, underscore the precarious position individuals like Zeynalli can find themselves in, through no fault of their own.
The detention of Kamil Zeynalli has transcended personal misfortune, becoming a symbol of larger geopolitical tensions. His case has garnered international attention, raising pertinent questions about the safety and freedom of individuals navigating the invisible lines drawn by international politics. The response from Zeynalli's online community, a blend of support and outrage, mirrors the broader concerns surrounding the incident. As the situation unfolds, it serves as a stark reminder of the unpredictable impact of international disputes on ordinary lives.
In an era where global mobility is often taken for granted, incidents like these starkly remind us of the fragile nature of this freedom. Zeynalli's ordeal at Domodedovo airport is more than an isolated incident; it's a narrative that challenges us to reflect on the complexities of international law, the power of state actions, and the human stories caught in between. As the world watches and waits for the resolution of Zeynalli's case, one thing is clear: the lines between personal liberty and international politics are as blurred as ever.
https://bnnbreaking.com/international-affairs/azerbaijani-fitness-trainer-detained-in-moscow-on-armenias-request-a-tense-international-incident
World Bank presents economic indicators for Armenia in December 2023
19:47,
YEREVAN, FEBRUARY 19, ARMENPRESS. The World Bank has presented the economic indicators for Armenia in December of last year. The report issued by the World Bank reads as follows:
"Growth in economic activity moderated to 9.5 percent (yoy, in real terms) in December 2023, from 11.2 percent (yoy) in November 2023. In December, growth in industrial output eased to 20 percent (yoy), from 23.8 percent (yoy) in November, primarily owing to a slowdown in growth in manufacturing as well as electricity and energy production.
However, manufacturing still grew by 28 percent, mostly due to a 9.4-fold increase (yoy) in gold and jewelry production, which continued to soar, supported by investments in this sector and diversification in import markets for raw materials.
Construction growth remained stable at 11.5 percent (yoy) in December. Trade continued to grow at a fast pace, at 36 percent (yoy) in December, higher than 32 percent (yoy) in November. Services growth (excluding trade) increased to 3.4 percent (yoy) from 2.4 percent (yoy) the previous month. In 2023, economic activity grew by 9.4 percent (yoy), surpassing expectations.
On the demand side, private consumption was fueled by a 12 percent increase in real average wages, improvements in employment, and cash transfers provided by the Government to displaced population in the last quarter of the year. Net money transfers (both commercial and noncommercial) dropped by 47.2 percent (yoy) in December but were 4 times higher than the previous month. Money transfer inflows contracted 19.4 percent (yoy), driven by a 30 percent drop in inflows from Russia.
On the other hand, outflows increased by 9.6 percent (yoy), with Monaco, Russia, the UAE, and the USA as the main destinations. Prices registered 0.9 percent deflation in January 2024 (yoy) driven by 5.8 percent (yoy) deflation in food prices. The Central Bank of Armenia (CBA) continued easing the monetary stance by reducing the policy rate by 50 basis points (to 8.75 percent) in its January 30th Board session. Export growth remained exceptionally high owing to high exports of gold and jewelry. Exports of goods grew 137 percent (yoy) in December 2023. This was driven by an 11-fold increase in exports of precious and semi-precious stones, whose share of total exports rose from 17 percent in December 2022 to 73.2 percent in December 2023.
Exports of footwear, textiles, leather, and fur surged by 183 percent, 86 percent, and 74 percent, respectively. The United Arab Emirates is now the leading export destination, with a 15-fold rise in December exports (yoy). Imports increased by 34 percent, mainly driven by precious and semi-precious stones. Cumulatively in 2023, exports and imports grew 55 percent and 40 percent, respectively. The exchange rate against the USD has been relatively stable since the beginning of 2024 while remaining about 2 percent weaker in yoy terms in early February. International reserves stood at USD 3.6 billion at end-January 2024, similar to the end-2023 level.
A budget deficit of AMD 126 billion was recorded in December 2023, accounting for two thirds of the total 2023 deficit of AMD 189 billion. Tax revenues rose by 25.2 percent (yoy) in December driven by increases across the board. Profit and other taxes grew by 57 percent and 2.6-fold (yoy), respectively, driven by robust economic activity. Official transfers surged by 254 percent (yoy), compensating for the previous months' underperformance in relation to project-linked grants. Expenditures expanded by 29 percent, driven by increases in capital expenditures (76 percent, yoy) primarily due to growth in spending on defense.
The 16 percent growth in current expenditures (yoy) was led by a 35 percent increase in social allowances to address the needs of displaced persons. In 2023, the budget registered a cumulative deficit of 2 percent of GDP, which is expected to rise after including the portion of Nagorno-Karabakh1 financial liabilities settled by the government. The deficit was overfinanced by domestic sources, with AMD 223 billion net amortization in external financing. The financial system remained sound in December, with a slight deviation in profitability indicators.
Loans and deposits grew by 1.9 and 1 percent (mom), respectively, both mostly driven by growth in dramdenominated funds. The capital adequacy ratio fell marginally to 19.9 percent in December from 20.1 percent in November, while the ratio of non-performing loans to total loans improved to 2.4 percent in December from 2.8 percent in the previous month. Return on assets, an indicator of the banking system’s profitability, declined to 2.7 percent from 3.3 percent the previous month."
Armenia’s new housing program for forcibly displaced persons of NK to include mandatory citizenship requirement
10:40,
YEREVAN, FEBRUARY 19, ARMENPRESS. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has repeated that his government wouldn’t want to see the forcibly displaced persons of Nagorno-Karabakh leave Armenia in case they don’t have a desire or opportunity to return to their homes.
Pashinyan has also unveiled a new housing program for the forcibly displaced persons.
More than 100,000 forcibly displaced persons of Nagorno-Karabakh found shelter in Armenia after the September 2023 Azeri attack.
Pashinyan was asked on the matter during his meeting with the Armenian community in Germany where he was on a visit for the Munich Security Conference.
He was asked on the government’s plans regarding the refugees, and whether the forcibly displaced persons would return to Nagorno-Karabakh or stay in Armenia.
“Our vision is as follows: if they don’t have a realistic opportunity to return to Nagorno-Karabakh, it is our policy to do everything for them to stay in Armenia. Our Western, foreign partners strongly encourage the fact that the government of Armenia was able to take in over one hundred thousand people within a week, and take them in without refugee camps. Secondly, we can say that most of the children now go to school. As of December 31, 2023, 10,000 forcibly displaced persons of Nagorno-Karabakh had already found employment in Armenia. This is good, but this isn’t all, because this is perhaps thirty percent of the total number of employable people [displaced from NK]. All pensioners receive their pensions, and we are planning to launch a housing program soon, and we’ve made two important conclusions during its debates: first, this project must be accessible also for the citizens of Armenia, second, our brothers and sisters who were forcibly displaced from Nagorno-Karabakh, who would want to use this program, would have to obtain citizenship of Armenia [as a mandatory requirement of the program],” Pashinyan said.
Armenia becomes first country in the region to join ENPE as observer
17:32,
YEREVAN, FEBRUARY 13, ARMENPRESS. The Prosecutor-General’s Office of the Republic of Armenia has been included in the European Network of Prosecutors for the Environment (ENPE) as an observer.
Armenia is now the only country in the region to have an observer status in ENPE.
ENPE seeks to: • support the operative work of environmental prosecutors; • promote the exchange of information and experience of the enforcement and prosecution of environmental crime between members; • foster knowledge of environmental law among prosecutors and promote the development of environmental criminal law as an integral part of criminal law enforcement generally; • share experience of investigations, prosecutions and sanctions in the field of environmental criminal law; • contribute to better understanding, implementation and enforcement of environmental criminal law; • encourage and support co-operation between Members and facilitate capacity building in relation to the prevention and prosecution of environmental crime; • facilitate collection of data about environmental crime across Europe and enforcement action taken in relation to environmental crime; • identify and develop good, and whenever possible, best practice, for successful prosecutions and produce guidance, tools, common standards and approaches to the prosecution of environmental offences; • share training programmes in relation to environmental criminal law.
The network has over 60 members and observers (UK, France, Ireland, Sweden, the Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Denmark, Austria, Switzerland and others).
Colonel Artur Yeroyan appointed Deputy Chief of General Staff
10:40,
YEREVAN, FEBRUARY 14, ARMENPRESS. President Vahagn Khachaturyan has appointed Colonel Artur Yeroyan as Deputy Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Armenia.
Yeroyan was previously the Head of the Vazgen Sargsyan Military University.
The appointment was signed at the advice of Prime Minister Pashinyan.
Central Bank of Armenia: exchange rates and prices of precious metals – 12-02-24
17:19,
YEREVAN, 12 FEBUARY, ARMENPRESS. The Central Bank of Armenia informs “Armenpress” that today, 12 February, USD exchange rate down by 0.02 drams to 404.53 drams. EUR exchange rate up by 0.50 drams to 435.96 drams. Russian Ruble exchange rate down by 0.01 drams to 4.44 drams. GBP exchange rate up by 0.71 drams to 510.60 drams.
The Central Bank has set the following prices for precious metals.
Gold price down by 68.28 drams to 26317.52 drams. Silver price up by 3.95 drams to 294.65 drams.