Author: Chmshkian Vicken

ARMENIAN APRICOT SEASON NOT GOLDEN: YIELD DWINDLES, PRICES SOAR

Fresh Plaza, Netherlands
asp?id=3510
June 26 2007

The village of Jrashen in the Ararat province is surrounded by
fruit-bearing orchards, predominantly apricot. Usually, agricultural
work is in full swing here at this time of the year, but this June it
is tranquil. "There was a year when we started gathering apricots on
June 15, but this year we’ve nothing to gather at all. This apricot
is a matter of luck and also depends on the whims of weather," says
35-year-old local resident Janibek Nikoghosyan. "Many of the villagers
know they will have to live by borrowing until they see what happens
next year."

Half of the 500 households in Jrashen are engaged in apricot growing.

The rest cultivate grapes and grain crops. Nikoghosyan says he gets
about 15 tons a hectare if the year is good. Last year which was not
favorable he received a ton of apricot from a hectare, while this
year one can hardly get a dozen apricots from a tree.

His fellow villager, 51-year-old Margarit Harutyunyan brags that
Jrashen and neighboring Kaghtrashen are known to yield the tastiest
apricots in the whole province due to their sandy soil. "But this
year’s heavy rains prevented proper pollination. Every year we have
some trouble. I won’t pick even a kilogram of apricot from my huge
orchard," she says.

According to the data of the Ministry of Agriculture, every year the
country’s agriculture incurs a loss worth some 10-13 billion drams
(about $29-37 million) because of natural calamities. The spring
floods this year have already inflicted a loss of 420 million drams
($1.2 million). Rural economy specialists say 2-3 times less fruit
is expected this year.

"The apricot yield this year will make about 15,000 tons, compared
to 50,000 tons received last year. Apricot orchards in Armenia
cover an area of 9,000 hectares, of which 7,500 have fruit-bearing
trees, and 1,500 hectares are areas with newly planted orchards,"
Garnik Petrosyan, Head of the Department of Plant-Growing and Plant
Protection of the Ministry of Agriculture, says.

Nevertheless, farmers in the Ararat valley have no particular hopes
for apricot this year. Those who do have apricot will sell at a high
price. Everyone in Jrashen usually looks with envy at 77-year-old
Garnik Abrahamyan’s three-hectare apricot orchard. The old man says
last year he received 30 tons of apricot from his plot, this year he
will hardly get half that amount. Still it is more than most here.

"Re-sellers have already queued for apricot, especially those who
export the produce. I said I would not sell at a price lower than
500 drams per kilo. Now is the year of ‘hunger’ for apricot, and we
should make the best use of it."

Janibek explains that the heights on which orchards are planted make
the difference. Garnik’s orchards are situated lower. Apricot-trees
blossomed earlier and had time for pollination before heavy rains
started.

"The trees in my orchard blossomed a week later, and this is the
result. I understood that a smart person in this village should have
his orchards in several place," he says. Meanwhile, Margarit says
that the best apricot sort exporters are after is shalakh (a larger,
more favored variety).

"Trucks have already arrived to ‘reserve’ their right to buy it out.

Of course, the rarely-ripening apricot is already on sale and at a
rather high price. But I am so tired from these weather surprises
that I’ve made up my mind to sell my orchard, especially that I am
offered $25,000 for it," she says.

According to economist Tatul Manaseryan, the law of supply and demand
should be at work here. "But wild laws work in our country and prices
are simply dictated, which can’t be an example of classical economy,"
he says. Of course, the shortage of product will result in the growth
of the price, but not such a drastic one. According to him, the prices
for other fruits will be artificially raised on the market.

Vahagn Simonyan, 28, from the village of Lusagyugh in the Armavir
province, has a one-hectare watermelon garden. He says that watermelons
will fill the shortage of apricot. "And we, too, should use the moment
and sell at a higher-than-usual price," he says.

According to the Ministry of Agriculture, 8-9,000 tons of apricots
are exported annually, and some 5,000 tons are purchased by processing
companies. Petrosyan says that this year these figures will, of course,
go down, however there will be no astronomical prices.

"When apricot is ripe, the village cannot wait. Even from gusty winds
ripe apricot can fall, so whether they want it or not, they have to
take the fruit quickly to the market." Apricot sold for between 2,500
drams (about $7) and 5,000 drams (about $14) per kilo in Yerevan
in early June. Meanwhile, during the same period last year could be
bought for as little as 1,000 drams (about $2).

Margarit Harutyunyan says that last year the wholesale price for
apricot exporters was 300 drams (or about 90 cents) per kilogram. The
first yield was sold to local traders for a much higher price –
800-1,000 drams (approx. $2.5-3.0). And the retail market price for
apricot at the best time of the season was 250-300 drams (about 90
cents) or 400-500 drams ($1-1.5) the highest. Housewives in Armenia
must forget about apricot jams, stewed or dried fruits.

"We will hardly be able to afford to buy it twice for out kids
to get the taste of it, let alone paying such a high price for
apricot and then get it canned," says 42-year-old mother-of-three
Susanna Hambartsumyan. But grower Garnik, who has four children and
14 grandchildren, says he won’t sell his apricots — no matter what
the price is — until his kids have had their full share.

"The first yield will be until July 10. They will come and get as much
as they need. A person shouldn’t ‘eat’ his work alone. I give everyone
his share," he says proudly. And generally, according to Petrosyan,
the market will not feel the shortage of fruits. A big harvest of
peach, plum, pear, apple, nuts and grapes is expected.

"SAINT ARMENIA" EXHIBITION TO BE PRESENTED IN ARMENIA’S HISTORY MUSEUM

ARMENPRESS
Jun 27 2007

YEREVAN, JUNE 27, ARMENPRESS: "Saint Armenia" exhibition held in
Louver within the framework of Year of Armenia in France will be
presented in Armenia’s History Museum in August-October.

Armenian deputy minister of culture Gagik Gyurjian told Armenpress
that 212 samples have already been brought to Armenia (including
31 cross-stones).

The exhibition will be re-created just like it was in Louver,
the relevant agreement has been signed with the administration of
the museum.

The exhibition presented samples from St. Etchmiadzin Treasury,
ancient manuscripts from Matenadaran, exclusive samples from the
Armenia’s history museum.

After the exhibition in the Armenia’s history museums the samples
will be returned to their places.

NATIONAL ASSEMBLY APPROVES RA GOVERNMENT’S PROGRAM

Noyan Tapan
Jun 26 2007

YEREVAN, JUNE 26, NOYAN TAPAN. The RA National Assembly approved
the government’s program with 94 votes in favor, 7 opposed and 9
abstained on June 26. As RA Prime Minister Serge Sargsian said,
the program is intended for five years, and, certainly, has a legal
ground and was compiled in consideration of the accumulated potential
of the previous years.

Members of the Zharangutiun (Heritage) party voted against the program
and members of Orinats Yerkir (Country of Law) abstained. They had
declared their position before voting. Besides, independent MP Viktor
Dallakian was also abstained.

NA SPEAKER RECEIVED THE AMBASSADOR OF GERMANY

ArmRadio.am
22.06.2007 14:50

June 22 Speaker of RA National Assembly Tigran Torosyan received the
Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the Federal Republic
of Germany to Armenia, Mrs. Haike Renate Peitsch, who is completing
her diplomatic mission in our country.

Noting that during her tenure in office the Ambassador has
greatly contributed to the deepening if relations between the two
countries, the Speaker attached importance to the further deepening
of interparliamentary relations and wished success to the Ambassador
in her future activity.

Issues related to the development of a political and multiparty system
in Armenia were discussed. Noting that steps will be taken in this
direction in the coming years, Tigran Torosyan attached importance
to the use of Germany’s rich experience. Mr. Torosyan also stressed
the importance of establishing cooperation with German political
structures.

OFFICE OF RA PROSECUTOR GENERAL RECEIVES ELECTRONIC VERSION OF CONCLUSION OF FOREIGN EXPERTS’ EXAMINATION OF LEVON GULIAN’S BODY

Noyan Tapan
Jun 22 2007

YEREVAN, JUNE 22, NOYAN TAPAN. Late on June 21 the Office of the RA
Prosecutor General received an electronic version of the conclusion of
foreign experts’ examination of the body of Levon Gulian who died under
unrevealed circumstances in the building of the Criminal Investigation
Department of the RA Police. NT correspondent was informed about it
from the Office of the RA Prosecutor General.

The Office of the RA Prosecutor General told the experts that according
to Armeian law, the conclusion may be used as evidence only in case
of availability of the original with their signatures. It is expected
that the foreign experts will also send the original of the document
by post.

Eurasianet.org
US CONCERNED BY ARMENIA’S ENERGY TIES WITH IRAN
Emil Danielyan 6/21/07

The United States has expressed concern about Armenia’s deepening economic
relations with neighboring Iran, with a senior American diplomat warning
that they might run counter to international sanctions imposed on Tehran
over its controversial nuclear program.
In an equally significant development, the US charge d’affaires in Yerevan,
Anthony Godfrey, also indicated that Washington is ready, in principle, to
help the South Caucasus nation build a new nuclear power plant. "We are very
concerned about the increasing relations with Iran," Godfrey told a news
conference on June 15, commenting on multimillion-dollar energy projects
planned or already implemented by the two countries.
"We are working with the rest of the international community to push Iran to
comply with its international obligations [on nuclear non-proliferation],"
he said. "And two new [United Nations] Security Council resolutions deal
directly with investments in Iran, financial dealing with Iran. We have
expressed our concerns to the government of Armenia on all levels."
Armenia has until now maintained strong political and economic ties with
Iran, while being a leading per-capita recipient of US government
assistance. The Islamic Republic has served as one of Armenia’s few conduits
to the outside world ever since the economic blockades imposed on the small
landlocked country in the early 1990s by its more hostile neighbors,
Azerbaijan and Turkey. Armenian leaders hope that joint projects with Tehran
will also reduce Armenia’s strong dependence on Russia for energy resources.
Godfrey was apparently the first senior US official to publicly and
explicitly voice alarm over Armenian-Iranian cooperation. His remarks
contrasted with what the former US ambassador in Yerevan, John Evans, said
on the matter in February 2006. Washington, Evans said at a news conference,
is "very sympathetic to Armenia’s efforts to diversify sources of energy,"
not least because they have not yet breached long-standing US sanctions
against Iran.
"Up to now, so far as we can tell, the American legislation has not been
triggered by anything that Armenia has done," he said at the time.
The Armenian-Iranian relationship, largely covering the energy sector, has
since gained new momentum. The presidents of the two countries inaugurated
last March the first Armenian section of a pipeline that will pump Iranian
natural gas to Armenia. Armenian President Robert Kocharian hailed that as a
"historic event," while his Iranian counterpart Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said the
pipeline will "further reinforce friendship and ties between our peoples."
Work on the pipeline’s second, much longer section is due to be complete by
the end of next year. Armenia will then be able to import up to 2.3 billion
cubic meters of Iranian gas a year, or nearly twice the current level of its
gas deliveries from Russia. It is expected that the bulk of the imported
Iranian gas will be converted into electricity that will in turn be exported
to Iran.
To that end, the Armenian and Iranian governments agreed last year to build
a third high-voltage transmission line connecting the power grids of their
countries. Construction of a major hydro-electric plant on the Arax River,
which marks the Armenian-Iranian border, is also planned.
In addition, Armenian, Iranian and Russian officials are scheduled to meet
later this year to discuss an ambitious proposal to build an oil refinery in
Armenia that would process Iranian crude. An oil subsidiary of Russia’s
Gazprom energy conglomerate has shown interest in financing most of the
project, which has an estimated cost of more than $1 billion.
In Godfrey’s words, the US government is worried about these developments.
"We do appreciate the transparent way in which the government of Armenia
conducts its energy relations with Iran, and we appreciate the
straightforward way that they tell us where they are going with their
relations," he said.
But the diplomat went on to urge the Kocharian administration to be a "more
active partner" in US-led international efforts to prevent Iran from
developing nuclear weapons. The Armenian government has avoided any
criticism of Tehran’s nuclear program, contenting itself with general calls
for a peaceful resolution of the dispute.
Speaking to journalists on June 19, Armenian Foreign Minister Vartan
Oskanian refrained from directly responding to the US concerns. He said only
that they will not damage US-Armenian relations. For his part, Deputy
Parliamentary Speaker Vahan Hovannisian, whose Armenian Revolutionary
Federation party is a junior partner in the governing coalition, argued that
Armenia is right to forge closer links with Iran. The country "doesn’t have
much of a choice," given the continuing Azerbaijani and Turkish blockades,
he said.
Washington seems to have somewhat widened Armenia’s energy security options
by publicly indicating its readiness to help the country replace its aging
Metsamor nuclear power station with a new nuclear facility. [For background
see the Eurasia Insight archive]. As Godfrey said, "We are working with the
Armenian Ministry of Energy to develop a feasibility study as to just what
would be the best replacement for this capacity."
US diplomats, however, say that support for the project would not be
conditional on Armenia putting the brakes on its energy cooperation with
Iran. "Our position on Armenia’s need to replace Metsamor with a new power
plant is independent of our concerns over Armenia’s cooperation with Iran,"
one State Department official told EurasiaNet.
The Metsamor plant, which generates about 40 percent of Armenia’s
electricity, was built in the late 1970s and was shut down following a
catastrophic 1988 earthquake. It was reactivated in 1995 to end a severe
energy crisis caused by the war with Azerbaijan over the disputed territory
of Nagorno-Karabakh. The United States and the European Union strongly
opposed the decision, saying that Metsamor’s Soviet-designed reactor is
inherently unsafe. They both have spent tens of millions of dollars on
upgrading the plant’s safety systems, while pressing successive governments
in Yerevan to close the facility as soon as possible.
The Kocharian government announced last year that Metsamor will be
decommissioned by 2016. It also embarked on a search for potential foreign
investors interested in providing an estimated $1 billion need for the
construction of a new nuclear plant. The Russian government and energy
companies promptly expressed their readiness to help to put the project into
practice. The issue was high on the agenda of a late April visit to Yerevan
by Sergei Kiriyenko, head of Russia’s Federal Agency on Atomic Energy.
Kocharian reaffirmed his government’s far-reaching intentions as he chaired
an annual meeting of his Council on Atomic Energy Security on May 30. The
project to build a new plant is "justified both in terms of energy security
and economically," he said.

LEADER OF WORLD’S YEZIDS ASKS U.S. PRESIDENT TO ENSURE SECURITY OF YEZIDS IN NORTH IRAQ

Noyan Tapan
Jun 19 2007

YEREVAN, JUNE 19, NOYAN TAPAN. The chairman of the National Union of
the World’s Yezids, Aziz Tamoyan, sent a letter to US President Bush
with the request to ensure security of Yezids living in the north of
Iraq. During the June 19 press conference he said that with the aim
of suppressing the "national liberation movement" of the Kurds, the
Turkish army has entered the northern part of Iraq where 1.2 million
Yezids live. According to Aziz Tamoyan, these Yezids are persecuted
by local Muslims.

"Our cradle is the north of Iraq where Yezids have lived for over five
thousand years," A. Tamoyan said. However, in his words, conditions
for Yezids has significantly worsened there in the past two months:
two months ago Muslims shot 24 people during thew course of one day
only because they were Yezids. This terrorism with respect to Yezids
is continuing.

The letter to President Bush, in particular, reads: "Iraq may be
partitioned, with Sunni, Shiah, and Kurdish states being created." In
the opinion of A. Tamoyan, the state of Yezdistan should be created
along with these three states. "We request that this territory
be considered an administrative part of the US. We want the US as
superpower to solve our problems. Today the fate of the Yezid people
depends on the US only because its troops are already in Iraq,"
A. Tamoyan stated, adding that US troops must prevent Turks from
harming the Yezids who live in North Iraq.

CHANGES WILL HELP HOLD IMPROVED ELECTION
Norair Hovsepian

Azat Artsakh Daily, Republic of Nagorno Karabakh [NKR]
15-06-2007

The preparations for the presidential election end in about a week,
and the election campaign starts. This is neither the first nor the
second election.

Our citizens are gradually acknowledging this process, its importance
and finally their role. At the same time, the skills of people who
prepare and hold the elections are rising, the technical matters are
improving. It allows stating that in about a month we will witness a
better-organized election and a society with adequate consciousness
of its civil duties.

Anyway, the results will be seen only after the election. As to the
preparations, we talked to the chair of the NKR Central Electoral
Commission Sergey Nasibian. According to him, the peculiarity of this
election is the amendments to the NKR Electoral Code almost on the
eve of the election. Mr. Nasibian said it was immense work but it
was done successfully. Sergey Nasibian pointed to the replacement
of district commissions by divisional commissions, transfer of the
responsibility for the voters’ registers from the local governments to
the police and a few other novelties which Sergey Nasibian says will
help increase flexibility and effectiveness of preparations. According
to the chair of the CEC, 276 polling stations were set up in NKR and
one in the permanent representation of NKR to Armenia.

Sergey Nasibian said perhaps one more polling station will be set up
for the penitentiaries and another in the region of Shahumian. The
CEC also makes efforts for raising awareness of the amendments among
the voters. The NKR Electoral Code was published in 750 copies,
which will be distributed to all the government agencies and local
governments. The Electoral Code is also available on the site of the
CEC. The accreditation of observers and media is underway. So far
mainly local observers have been registered, but the experience of
the past years shows that accreditation takes place mostly within
the few days preceding the voting. Sergey Nasibian said the number
of foreign advisers grows from election to election, which is positive.

Currently the Electoral Code is being translated into Russian and
English and will finish until July 5. We also asked the opinion of
the chair of the CEC on the pre-election behavior of political forces
and experts. The campaign starts June 20. Does everyone honor the
schedule? And finally is there a distinct line between electioneering
and non-electioneering? "It may be the shortcoming of the Electoral
Code that this line is not distinct.

If campaign is meetings with voters, it contradicts to another
law. The law on parties holds the parties can present their opinions,
approaches at any time. So, the parties which expressed their stance
on the common candidate in fact used their constitutional right. By
the way, the Electoral Code enables them to. This is not campaign
because the process stopped in that stage. It is beyond doubt,
however, that distinction between electioneering and party activities
is necessary. The Republic of Armenia also faced this problem. This
gap in the Electoral Code may be filled later. It refers to both
political parties and individuals. Of course, it is necessary to
work and create election headquarters, recruitment of observers and
proxies in preparing for the campaign. But it does not mean using
preparations for electioneering," Mr. Nasibian said. He added that
similar efforts were noticed but were prevented, and the relevant
agencies were instructed to watch and prevent electioneering until
the official date it starts. Sergey Nasibian believes it also needs a
legislative remedy. Meanwhile, elements of campaign are often observed
in the media. However, an analysis and comment are flexible notions,
as well as the campaign or anti-campaign in them, which does not
enable to give a distinct evaluation.

AARON ADIBEKYAN EXPOSES BAKO’S CORRUPTION

Lragir.am
18-06-2007 15:27:40

Aaron Adibekyan, the embodiment of independent sociology, visited
Karabakh at the invitation of the youth wing of the Union of
Azatamartiks and conducted a poll to find out the popular rating of
the five candidates running in the presidential election of July
19. Aaron Adibekyan did not charge a fee for the poll, they only
covered travel expenses and other technical expenses. According to
Adibekyan, he did not get an order from any of the candidates. In
other words, free sociology is not only in the trap like cheese but
also at the Sociometer. Aaron Adibekyan presented the results of
his move made out of good faith to help promote the democracy of the
Karabakh presidential election to the Armenian reporters on June 18
at the Friday Club. His study showed that the likely candidate is
the so-called "single candidate" Bako Sahakyan. "Bako Sahakyan is
likely to win, Masis Mayilyan can compete with him, the others are
given low ratings," Aaron Adibekyan says, presenting the results of
the poll among 1000 respondents. By the way, 300 hundred declined to
answer the questions.

Adibekyan thinks they will not vote.

Masis Mayilyan’s average popular rating is about 6 percent, Bako
Sahakyan’s is four times higher. Instead fewer people are against
that Mayilyan become president. More people, about 1.5 percent,
do not want Sahakyan become president. He says the deputy foreign
minister Mayilyan has a high popular rating in Stepanakert, about 10
percent. Meanwhile, in the regions people do not know him. However,
this is only the beginning, and the candidates still have to meet
with people and fight for 55 percent of votes which do not belong to
anyone yet. In other words, according to Adibekyan, everything depends
on how aware of the wishes and expectations of voters the candidates
are. Besides, mainly well-off and educated people support Mayilyan
because Mayilyan is ahead of Sahakyan by intelligence. However, social
and economic problems are important to people, the pollster says.

According to him, the respondents appreciate kindness, care,
willingness to think about people, education, literacy, intelligence,
experience and skills as a leader. According to Adibekyan, Mayilyan
is ahead of Sahakyan on two parameters, literacy and education. He
is behind on all the other parameters.

"In terms of education he is ahead of Bako because he studied at the
diplomatic academy of Vienna. It is a great factor, if he makes use
of it.

But among whom? Among educated, intelligent voters, whose ratio is
small, you see. This is the problem," Adibekyan says. According to
him, common farmers do not want a "glamorous" candidate but want a
"daddy". Adibekyan says in fact Karabakh is going to choose between
"glamour" and "daddy". Bako Sahakyan will be the daddy, who has such
an image among people because he has provided money and other aid to
many people. In answer to the question of Lragir.am if the people of
Karabakh think Bako Sahakyan helped people from his pocket, Adibekyan
says he does not know, he only supposes that he helped people when
he occupied different posts. In this case we asked what makes him
think so. "People who answered that he helps people. I do not know
why he helps. He may make a phone call to the judge, the prosecutor,
he used to work in the sphere of home affairs. He helped people,"
Adibekyan says. In fact, Adibekyan exposes cases of corruption when
the head of the National Security Service of Karabakh calls the judge,
the prosecutor and solves certain problems.

"Everything is possible because there is a problem of justice," Aaron
Adibekyan says. He actually considers his survey unnecessary because
in a country where problems of justice are solved through phone calls
among high-ranking officials, no doubt the same phone calls will be
used in the presidential election to provide justice.

Azeri opposition leader says Iran should be prevented from making nuke

Yeni Azarbaycan, Baku
14 Jun 07 p 6

The leader of Azerbaijan’s major opposition party Musavat has said that
Iran should be prevented from building a nuclear bomb, as this
country’s acquiring a nuke is contrary to Azerbaijan’s state interests.
"As the Musavat Party, our position is that Iran’s acquiring a nuclear
weapon is fundamentally contradictory to the state interests of
Azerbaijan. In my opinion, this may lead to such grave consequences as
a restriction of the Azerbaijani state’a sovereignty," Isa Qambar said
in an interview with Yeni Azarbaycan, a mouthpiece of the ruling New
Azerbaijan Party. Qambar believes that that a confrontation between
Iran and the West is inevitable given Tehran’s reluctance to give up
its nuclear enrichment programme. However, the Musavat leader says that
the standoff between Tehran and the West should be resolved by
diplomatic means, as the lives of millions of ethnic Azerbaijanis in
Iran would be under threat in case of military action. He suggested
that Azerbaijan should pursue its own interests if the tension
escalates. The following is the text of an interview with Musavat
leader Isa Qambar in Yeni Azarbaycan newspaper headlined "We have not
burnt our bridges with the NAP" and subheaded "Isa Qambar: Opposition
parties should not be engaged in assessing each other". Subheadings
have been inserted editorially;

Opposition unity

Although there was a sort of activity in the opposition in the run-up
to the [2008 presidential] election, the failure of the discussions
created some stagnation. Since not all members of the opposition camp
unanimously support the proposals concerning consolidation, the format
of a new union failed before coming into life. This is what we started
out conversation with the leader of the Musavat party, Isa Qambar, with.

[Yeni Azarbaycan] Isa bay [form of address], discussions about the
integration of the opposition, which were once on the agenda, have now
been in the second place. What is the reason for the interruption of
this process?

[Qambar] Integration and disintegration are an eternal process in both
nature and society. That is why there is no need for taking too much
interest in this process, being alarmed when integration is under way
and worrying when disintegration takes place.

[Yeni Azarbaycan] Did integration or cooperation fail because of
strategic differences of views?

[Qambar] It is naive to wish that a great number of opposition parties
operating in Azerbaijan could come together. This is because it is
impossible for about 80 political organizations to move or think in the
same way. This has never happened in any part of the world, never
happens or will never happen.

[Yeni Azarbaycan] Does it mean that it is illogical for the opposition
elite to consider integration or strategic cooperation to be the only
way out?

[Qambar] There are three reasons for such considerations. Firstly,
society itself likes simplicity and prefers two parties contesting
elections to make a choice between them. This is why I think that the
messages from society are sincere. Secondly, it is a heavy burden in
countries like Azerbaijan to be in the opposition. The part of the
opposition that feels this responsibility calls other like-minded
forces for unity from time to time. This is a normal and natural
approach. However, the ruling spin doctors know that the unity of the
opposition is difficult, if not impossible. Therefore, they keep such
subjects on the agenda at times, trying to manage the public opinion.

"Burnt out bridges"

[Yeni Azarbaycan] But the opposition has showed unity for common goals
sometimes. Will we see a similar alliance this time or have the bridges
been completely burnt out?

[Qambar] The Musavat Party has not burnt its bridges with any of the
sides. These bridges have not been burnt even with the ruling New
Azerbaijan Party [NAP]. The burnt bridges are not the result of our
activities.

[Yeni Azarbaycan] There have recently been some positive changes in the
attitude of the opposition towards the authorities. In other words, the
once radical and hostile attitudes have now become more civilized. How
can you explain it?

[Qambar] I do not know on which basis you are saying that the
opposition has changed. There is a liberal approach to the notion
"radical" in Azerbaijan. The radical opposition represents the forces
which take arms to fight against the government and use clandestine
methods of struggle for some reason. There is no such opposition in
Azerbaijan. We have democratic forces. They are in favour of the
replacement of the government in a peaceful way through elections and
wage their struggle in accordance with law and the constitution. I do
not agree with the views that the opposition is radical. The Musavat
Party has always acted within the framework of the law and the
constitution throughout 14 years in opposition. Our means of struggle
have not changed even now.

[Yeni Azarbaycan] May the reason for failing to achieve any success
during the 14 years be the fact that you have not changed? Because any
change also means development.

[Qambar] I can not say that nothing has changed. Some changes are
always made in accordance with the order of the time.

Next presidential election

[Yeni Azarbaycan] Has your party started preparing for the presidential
election due in 2008?

[Qambar] As a force which views elections as the only way of changing
government, the Musavat Party has started preparations since the
previous election. In this sense you can assume that we have braced
ourselves for the 2008 elections since the end of 2005 [last
parliamentary election].

[Yeni Azarbaycan] Has the party decided on its nominee for the
presidential election?

[Qambar] The decision about it can be made either at the Majlis [the
party assembly] or at a party congress. There has not been an official
decision so far. But I do not see a different approach.

[Yeni Azarbaycan] Let us be specific. Will you again be the party’s
nominee?

[Qambar] It depends on my decision as well. But the party will have the
last say.

[Yeni Azarbaycan] Can we learn your decision?

[Qambar] There is a long time left to the election. I have not taken my
final decision yet.

[Yeni Azarbaycan] Are you holding any negotiations with other
opposition parties to enlist support for your candidacy?

[Qambar] There are no negotiations in this regard. I do not think that
it is useful to turn the idea of unity of the opposition into a target.
The Musavat Party has told the public about what it wants and proceeds
with its way. We will think about cooperation with any force that has
close ways with us.

[Yeni Azarbaycan] We did not ask this question by accident. Some
political forces are issuing different statements. For example, the
Azadliq [Freedom] bloc, in which you were once an ally, has said that
the bloc is the only opposition.

[Qambar] I would like to wish them success. It is not the parties, but
the public that defines if any of the forces is the actual or only
opposition. The opposition parties should not be engaged in assessing
one another. Every party should act in accordance with its manifesto
and values. It is the people who will decide.

[Yeni Azarbaycan] [MP] Panah Huseyn, who is considered to be a spin
doctor of the opposition, has said that it is appropriate for the
opposition to contest the forthcoming presidential election from one
headquarters. Do you think that this proposal is realistic?

[Qambar] If there is a second round of the election, the defeated
members of the democratic forces should support the one who continues
to run. It is clear.

Nagornyy Karabakh

[Yeni Azarbaycan] How do you evaluate the negotiations for the
settlement of the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict and the situation on the
ground?

[Qambar] I must say with regret that a solution to the Nagornyy
Karabakh problem does not seem likely today. It is beyond any doubt
that Azerbaijan will never give up its fair position and none of the
Azerbaijani politicians will agree to Nagornyy Karabakh’s secession
from our country. Under these circumstances the settlement of the
problem depends on Armenia’s refraining from the policy of occupation
and agreeing to at least a stage-by-stage solution to the conflict or
on the international community’s recognizing the aggressor and taking a
principled position. A solution to this problem is possible only under
these conditions. From this viewpoint positive changes towards the
settlement of the conflict are not expected at the current stage.

[Yeni Azarbaycan] Can the statements made by the Russian co-chairman of
the OSCE Minsk Group [set up to resolve the Nagornyy Karabakh
conflict], Yuriy Merzlyakov, and his colleague from the USA, Matthew
Bryza, in Yerevan be viewed as a logical sequel to the proposal on
joint use of the Qabala radar station?

[Qambar] No, because the Russian president’s proposal concerning the
Qabala radar station mainly has a nature of making effects. The
likelihood of its coming true is equal to zero. As for the statements
made by the co-chairmen, the OSCE mediators have been making numerous
contradictory statements of late. From this viewpoint it is difficult
to seriously analyse the statements. For example, these people say one
thing in Baku, but another in Yerevan. This is why I am not in favour
of seriously analysing their statements. The OSCE Minsk Group is doing
an imitation since it knows that no progress is expected in the
resolution of the problem.

[Yeni Azarbaycan] The co-chairmen told a news conference in Baku that
they were not magicians. They even drew parallels between the Karabakh
conflict and the Gibraltar issue, which has been outstanding for 300
years. Has a solution to the Karabakh conflict really become a game for
both the West and Russia?

[Qambar] The global confrontation between the West and Russia drew to a
close with the end of the cold war. But the regional struggle has not
ended yet. Unfortunately, the Nagornyy Karabakh issue is only one of
the elements in this context. A solution to the problem will only
depend on how the struggle between Russia and the West will end at a
time when the conflict has been elevated to the international level. If
any of the sides ensures its supremacy in the region, Azerbaijan will
have to take into consideration the views of the dominant side besides
materializing its own rights and interests. Russia and the West need to
reach global understanding on the region so that the Karabakh conflict
could be viewed not as a battleground, but as a solvable problem. But
this cannot be seen at the moment.

[Yeni Azarbaycan] Many media outlets, as well as representatives of
foreign embassies and international organizations have said that
[Azerbaijani] President Ilham Aliyev will hold discussions on the
Nagornyy Karabakh conflict with the leaders of the country’s
opposition. Will you take part in these discussions?

[Qambar] I have not received either an official or an unofficial
invitation. The format of the discussions is important. For example, it
is one thing if this meeting is going to be like a forum in which one
of the government officials will be making a speech about the Karabakh
issue and we will be listening. It is another thing if open discussions
to the media or closed-door discussions are held. In any case, the
Karabakh issue is such a point that we are always ready to exchange
views with the authorities on it.

Iran’s nuclear programme

[Yeni Azarbaycan] How would you assess the standoff between the USA and
Iran? Are the military hostilities expected soon?

[Qambar] As can be seen, Iran does not want to give up plans to achieve
a nuclear weapon, while the West does not wish to be reconciled to
this. From this viewpoint a confrontation or a conflict seems to be
inevitable. For the time being the developments are unfolding with
tension.

[Yeni Azarbaycan] What do you think Azerbaijan’s position should be
regarding this issue?

[Qambar] As the Musavat Party our position is that Iran’s acquiring a
nuclear weapon is fundamentally contradictory to the state interests of
Azerbaijan. In my opinion this may lead to such grave consequences as
the limitation of Azerbaijan’s state sovereignty. That is why our main
interest is to make sure that Iran does not have weapons of mass
destruction. Our second interest is that the standoff is resolved in a
diplomatic manner because the fates of tens of thousands of ethnic
Azerbaijanis in the south [northwestern Iran] are at stake. However,
there are some realities in addition to our interests. These realities
show that the conflict between the West and Iran will be aggravated. If
this is the case, Azerbaijan must take a position on the basis of its
own interests.

[Yeni Azarbaycan] Roughly against Iran… [ellipses as published]

[Qambar] Not against Iran, but against Iran’s nuclear weapon.