Author: Chatinian Lara

LA TURQUIE ET L’ARMENIE NORMALISENT A PETITS PAS

Le Figaro
8 Septembre 2008
France

DIPLOMATIE Apres la visite, samedi, a Erevan, du president Abdullah
Gul, les ministres des Affaires etrangères turc et armenien se
rencontreront fin septembre a New York, a l’occasion de l’Assemblee
generale des Nations unies.

par Marchand, Laure

SANS SURPRISE, la logique sportive a ete respectee samedi soir dans
le stade d’Erevan. La Turquie s’est imposee 2-0 face a l’Armenie au
cours d’un match de qualification pour la Coupe du monde de football
2010. Mais l’enjeu se trouvait dans les gradins : Serge Sarkissian
et Abdullah Gul, les presidents armenien et turc, ont assiste côte a
côte a la rencontre sportive. Derrière une vitre blindee, revelatrice
de l’ampleur des differends separant les deux capitales. Le refus
turc de reconnaître le genocide armenien, commis par les Ottomans au
cours de la Première Guerre mondiale, et l’occupation par l’Armenie de
l’enclave du Haut-Karabakh en Azerbaïdjan, un pays turcophone, sont
les principaux obstacles qui bloquent l’etablissement de relations
diplomatiques entre Ankara et Erevan.

Malgre ces ecueils, les deux voisins ont saisi l’opportunite du tirage
au sort du Mondial pour donner le coup d’envoi a un rapprochement :
il s’agissait de la première visite d’un president turc en Armenie.

" Nous avons la volonte politique de resoudre les desaccords afin
de ne pas les laisser aux generations futures ", a declare Serge
Sarkissian. Dans l’avion qui le ramenait a Ankara, Abdullah Gul
s’est felicite de cette prise de contacts dont il a espere qu’" elle
permettra de produire des resultats concrets ". Signe de la volonte
de consolider ce rechauffement diplomatique, le president Sarkissian a
ete invite en Turquie pour le match retour. Il a egalement ete decide
que des discussions regulières auraient lieu entre les ministres
des Affaires etrangères. Ils se rencontreront dès la fin du mois a
New York.

Peur de l’effet domino Mais le lancement du dialogue turco-armenien
s’est effectue dans une atmosphère pesante. " Justice pour le genocide
armenien ! ", " 1915, plus jamais ca ! " : sur le trajet emprunte
par la delegation turque de l’aeroport au palais presidentiel,
des manifestants brandissaient sur des pancartes les blessures
historiques, toujours a vif. Et au stade, les spectateurs ont hue
l’hymne national turc. Sur la colline voisine, derrière les gradins,
le monument effile du memorial du genocide se detachait dans la nuit. "
À l’ecole, les enfants turcs n’apprennent pas ce qui s’est passe en
1915 ", explique une jeune Armenienne.

Une petite centaine de supporteurs turcs seulement avait fait le
deplacement. Assis, dans une rangee vide, Ufuk Uras etait l’unique
depute turc present. " La Turquie est multiculturelle. Des Armeniens
y vivent, explique cet ami de Hrant Dink, le journaliste d’origine
armenienne assassine a Istanbul l’an dernier. Avoir des relations
pacifiques avec l’Armenie est primordial. " La reouverture de la
frontière commune, fermee par Ankara en 1993, n’est cependant pas
a l’ordre du jour. " Il faut un geste, meme petit, d’Erevan dans
le conflit du Haut-Karabakh, selon un conseiller diplomatique de
M. Gul. La normalisation est liee a des avancees simultanees dans
tous les dossiers. " Le deblocage des relations turco-armeniennes
pourrait finalement etre precipite par le conflit en Ossetie.

La Turquie s’inquiète des risques d’un effet domino de la crise
georgienne dans la region. Abdullah Gul a donc presente a Serge
Sarkissian le projet turc d’une " plate-forme pour la cooperation et
la stabilite dans le Caucase ", qui reunirait la Turquie, la Russie,
la Georgie, l’Azerbaïdjan et l’Armenie. Pour devenir un acteur de
premier plan dans cette region, Ankara sera oblige de se reconcilier
avec Erevan.

–Boundary_(ID_pgj7IuHJIHcbj2gm/HJYkw)–

LIFE IMPRISONED AZERBAIJANI OFFICER REMOVED TO PRISON

TREND Information
Sept 8 2008
Azerbaijan

Azerbaijan, Baku, 8 September/ Trend News corr. K.Zarbaliyeva /
According to the judgment of Budapest City Court, the officer of the
Armed Forces of Azerbaijan, who was sentenced to life imprisonment,
was removed from insulator to prison, a source at Azerbaijan’s Embassy
in Hungary told TrendNews on 8 September.

The senior lieutenant of the Azerbaijani army Ramil Safarov was
accused of murdering Armenian officer in February 2004 and sentenced
to life imprisonment by the Budapest Court. The Appeal court upheld
the sentence.

It was reported that Safarov was removed to prison which is located
in 500m distance from the insulator in Budapest.

The representatives of the Embassy met with Safarov in the prison.

As Safarov did not obey to the controllers of the insulator, he was
sentenced to 8 month conditional prison according to the judgment
of Budapest Court on 17 November 2006. The Appeal Court upheld this
judgment as well.

Azerbaijani officer’s extradition to Azerbaijan will be discussed
during Azerbaijan Justice Minister’s visit to Hungary. The Justice
Ministry of Azerbaijan appealed to the Justice Ministry of Hungary
for Safarov’s extradition.

Today’s Zaman, Turkey
Sept 8 2008

If only Hrant were here, too

Hrant Dink would be very happy about the whole thing. If he was still
alive, he would hug me with a big smile in the middle of the square. I
can hear his deep voice: "Yavuz, we managed, didn’t we? Look at these
people talking to each other, beginning to make peace with history. We
defeated the borders of hate."

How one wishes, at such a moment, in Yerevan, to joke and laugh with
him. Without the slightest doubt, in the sweltering, dry heat of
Yerevan, the "football encounters" between Turks and Armenians were
significant. The temporary lifting of visa restrictions also meant a
psychological release for two peoples, facing each other on the
street, being friendly. On that end, "the match" was a great
success. Native Armenians demonstrated peacefully and returned to
their homes after the defeat singing. Turks and Kurds defied the
border and traveled long hours to Yerevan via Georgia. Families from
Turkey’s Armenian minority went by airplane (mostly supporting the
Armenian team) and even people from the diaspora in the US were
visible, all to celebrate the occasion.

After the match, at around midnight, I was greeted by seven or eight
Armenians, all speaking perfect, Ä°stanbul Turkish. They flew in
from New York City, they say. One of them notes, "You notice we are
all men." "So?" I ask. "Because we came via Ä°stanbul and left
our wives there — for shopping." I ask about their background. Two of
them were from Moda, one of Ä°stanbul’s more posh
districts. Three are from Kayseri, another is from the Kumkapı
neighborhood in Ä°stanbul and the last one was from Bitlis. What
did they think about the new dialogue? "It is a new dawn," one said.

Standing not far from me, my colleague Cengiz Ã?andar is in an
excited conversation with some fans. When I come closer I realize they
are Kurds from the Turkish province of Ardahan. He tells us that they
had to travel 12 hours to get to the match. "Look," he says, pointing
to himself and his friends, "We Kurds came all the way to support our
[Turkish] team, and those nationalists [referring to right-wing Turks]
who grunt about this or that at home didn’t dare show up here!" As we
listen in amazement, he goes on: "Let them open this border. Enough! I
tell you, if they don’t, we will have to go and join the PKK
[Kurdistan Workers’ Party] in the mountains or emigrate to
Ä°stanbul and take your work!" He is referring, naturally, to
the unemployment and poverty in the eastern provinces of Turkey.

Another colleague tells about his conversation with a member of the
Armenian nationalist Dashnaksutiun party. At the beginning of the
match, the Dashnaks opened a huge banner, with "recognition,
reparation, restitution" written on it. When they chatted after the
match, my colleague asked him whether it was necessary to bring
history to the stadium. "If we Dashnaks do not do it," he responded,
"We would have to shut down the party." They laughed together and
agreed that dialogue will resolve many issues and help everyone to
talk — even about history. Around noon, at a distance, you are
greeted by what a colleague of mine calls "the great natural monument
in Armenia" — Mount Ararat. Inside Turkey’s borders with its sister,
Little Ararat, it overwhelms you, symbolizing the long-held historical
sentiments of the Armenians about the territory and their very
existence, filled with tragedy.

After a brief journey, I come much closer to the giant. On a visit to
a historic monastery, it rises before you, separating and uniting the
common history of two Anatolian peoples. Below the small hill where
the monastery is located, extends the plain, with the river Arax in
the middle, you can see Armenian peasants and even Turks beyond it,
working in the fields.

Under normal circumstances, it would take you only half an hour to
pass a border and enter Turkey on that plain. The closed border
mystifies both countries before each other. It adds to the myths,
mostly in a bad sense.

Just above the "sunken" stadium, in the heart of Yerevan, lies the
"Monument of the Armenian Genocide," facing Ararat. It is a serene
site, with heart-wrenching music and quiet visitors. I go there, as I
always do, to pay my respects to those who perished due to inhuman
folly and sheer madness during late Ottoman rule. Once upon a time,
our ancestors were the citizens of the same land, though many of them
had their share of tragedy, when visiting the "Genocide Museum," it is
clear who paid the highest price. As Hrant Dink used to tell me,
"Understanding, only understanding, will help us overcome denial."

Toward evening, we notice how little we talk of football. For us, in
our group of colleagues, it is part of daily life, with jokes, stories
and teasing. It does not come as a surprise when we tell each other
how overwhelmed one can be to pass the border and plunge into history
and memory, to listen to the problems of today waiting to be solved.

In the evening, tired, we go to one of my favorite spots in Yerevan,
Artush Babayan’s restaurant, The Real Armenian Kitchen. His origins
from "Smyrna" (Ä°zmir) help him speak some rough Anatolian
Turkish when he enthusiastically welcomes us. As he serves one
delicious meal after another, we raise our glass of apricot vodka in
memory of Hrant, many of us in tears. One of our colleagues reminds us
at the table, "After all, it is his memory that brought us here."
Soccer has been a pretext. But we know how happy we all would have
been to watch this match together with Hrant.

08 September 2008, Monday
YAVUZ BAYDAR TODAY’S ZAMAN

AsiaNews.it, Italy
Sept 5 2008

Football diplomacy between Ankara and Yerevan

by Mavi Zambak

Turkish President Gül accepts invitation to attend a football
match between Armenia and Turkey. For the past 15 years the two
countries had no diplomatic relations and their borders were
sealed. Political and oil interests explain the president’s yes.

Ankara (AsiaNews) ` After three days of silence Turkish President
Abdullah Gül accepted an invitation by his Armenian counterpart
President Serzh Sargsyan to attend tomorrow’s qualifying match between
Armenia and Turkey in the Armenian capital of Yerevan for the 2010
FIFA World Cup in South Africa. Such an extraordinary event is
important not so much for the outcome of the football (soccer) match
but as the first step in a process that could solve the many complex
disputes between the two countries.

For the past 15 years Turkey and Armenia have had no formal diplomatic
relations. Over the same period of time their shared border has been
sealed, this despite the fact that Turkey one of the first countries
to recognise the independence of the former Soviet Republic in 1991.

Relations, never strong at the best of times, broke down definitely
when Armenia occupied 20 per cent of Azerbaijan’s territory, when it
invaded Nagorno Karabakh. They became toxic when the Armenians began
insisting that Turkey recognise the slaughter of 1.5 million Armenians
between 1915 and 1916 in the twilight years of the Ottoman Empire.

What is certain, according to Ã-mer Engin Lütem, director of
the Ankara-based Institute for Armenian Research, is that the Turks
realise now that opening to Armenia does not mean owning up to the
genocide charge. The Turkish press has encouraged this rapprochement
on political and economic grounds. Many people also want to see a
commission of inquiry into issues like `Diaspora’ Armenians.

In 2005 Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip ErdoÄ?an had already
suggested the creation of a joint Armenian-Turkish commission of
historians, but former Armenian President Robert Kocharyan proposed
instead an `intergovernmental commission’ to re-establish diplomatic
relations and discuss the international recognition of the genocide
with eventual compensation.

Since then everything has been at a standstill, wall against wall,
with Turkey still denying the charges of `genocide’ and dismissing the
whole issue as an invention to weaken the Turkish nation.

The good will of the Armenian host has to be admired. In arguing for
the Gül invitation he said: `During the Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict, Turkey closed its border with Armenia as an expression of
ethnic solidarity with Turkic Azerbaijan. The regrettable result is
that for almost 15 years, the geopolitically vital border between
Armenia and Turkey has become a barrier to diplomatic and economic
cooperation. It is closed not only to Armenians and Turks who might
want to visit their neighboring countries, but to trade, transport and
energy flows from East to West.’

`There may be possible political obstacles on both sides along the
way. However, we must have the courage and the foresight to act
now. Armenia and Turkey need not and should not be permanent rivals. A
more prosperous, mutually beneficial future for Armenia and Turkey,
and the opening up of a historic East-West corridor for Europe, the
Caspian region and the rest of the world, are goals that we can and
must achieve.’

In Turkey the opposition reacted negatively to Gül’s decision
to go to Yerevan, viewing it as giving in to Armenia. The Republican
People’s Party (CHP) and the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) even
called the trip an insult to the honour of the Turkish nation and an
`historic error’. In light of the close ties between Armenia to
Russia, the decision for them bodes ill for Turkey’s historic ties to
Georgia and especially Azerbaijan, a nation closer to Turkey in terms
of history, ethnicity and language, because of the.

In Europe the response has instead been positive. EU enlargement
commissioner Olli Rehn called the trip an `important first step’ and
said he hoped it would `soon [be] followed by others that lead to a
full normalisation of relations between these two countries.’

>From his See in Istanbul Armenian Patriarch Mesrob II expressed
through his secretary hope that the football match might be an
opportunity for these two nations to renew friendship and brotherhood.

Turkish Prime Minister ErdoÄ?an is backing the `sport meeting’
between the two presidents, hoping it might be the first step in
realising his much vaunted proposal for a `Caucasus Stability and
Cooperation Platform’ which initially should include Turkey, Russia,
Azerbaijan, Georgia and Armenia, followed later by other neighbouring
countries. This platform has a `geographic basis’ whose goal is `peace
and security in the region’ as well as `economic cooperation and
energy security.’

It is clear that behind the idea of acting as a mediator for peace and
stability, there is Ankara’s desire to meet the country’s continuous
and pressing need for energy supplies. For this reason in particular,
it is trying to strengthen ties with Georgia and Azerbaijan without
antagonising Russia since 60 per cent of its methane requirements come
from the Russian giant who this year will become Turkey’s main trading
partner, replacing Germany. And lest we forget Russia maintains strong
ties to Armenia.

In the meantime, 12,000 tickets have been reportedly sold already,
2,700 to Turkish spectators, who had the US$ 50 entry visa fee waived.

Photo: the match between the two Under 19 national teams.

; art=13141&size=A

SERZH SARGSYAN: "OUR TOP GOAL IS TO PERSUADE AZERBAIJAN THAT RECOGNITION OF THE RIGHT OF "NAGORNO KARABAKH" FOR SELF-DETERMINATION IS INEVITABLE"

Today.Az
s/politics/47387.html
Sept 4 2008
Azerbaijan

Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan explained the country’s position
on the recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

"Today it is often asked why Armenia does not recognize the
independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. The answer is clear-by
the same reason for which it did not recognize independence of Kosovo.

In conditions of the unsettled Nagorno Karabakh conflict, Armenia can
not recognize any other formation of the king, unless it recognizes
the "Nagorno Karabakh Republic", said Dargsyan at a meeting with
Armenian ambassadors to foreign countries and country’s permanent
representatives in international organizations.

The head of state voiced confidence that the use of the right
for self-determination by way of separation takes time, in the
result of which all the concerned sides should accept the idea
of self-determination, like it occurred during the USSR or
Czechoslovakia’s collapse.

"This is the subject of our talks with Azerbaijan on Nagorno
Karabakh. Our top goal is to persuade Azerbaijani side peacefully
and through negotiations that recognition of the right of "Nagorno
Karabakh" for self-determination is inevitable", said the Armenian
President.

Sargsyan says that he expects the active involvement of the entire
diplomatic corps of Armenia in the Karabakh issue. At the same time, he
noted that "Azerbaijani officials and diplomats voice their approaches
on the Karabakh problem in all possible instances and when possible".

Sargsyan considers that Armenian diplomats should present the legal
demand of Karabakh people to inform about the imposed war for existence
on the due level and show that the actions, initiated against Nagorno
Karabakh were the attempts of ethnic cleansing, which failed only to
the will and brevity of the Armenian people.

GEORGIA MADE A MISTAKE, U.S. CONFESSES

PanARMENIAN.Net
04.09.2008 16:58 GMT+04:00

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ The Georgian government "made a mistake" by attacking
Tskhinvali in early August, said Daniel Fried, Assistant Secretary of
State for European and Eurasian Affairs, The Washington Times reports.

"The Georgian case is basically, ‘Look, our people were attacked,
our villages were being shelled, we’d been subjected to months of
provocations from the Russians,’ and that’s basically true. But that
doesn’t mean that their decision was a wise one," he said.

He confirmed that the Bush administration has ordered a review of
U.S. defense cooperation programs with Russia but is not about to
draw up "mindless lists" of penalties that could alienate the Russian
people while leaving Moscow’s troops in Georgia.

After Russia sent troops into Georgia last month, Secretary of State
Condoleezza Rice asked her advisers to "think this through in a serious
way," Mr. Fried recalled. "Don’t draw up mindless lists. Think where
we need to be at the end of this administration and the beginning of
the next administration," he said Miss Rice told her staff.

MEETING BETWEEN NKR PRESIDENT AND RA DEFENCE MINISTER TAKES PLACE IN STEPANAKERT

Noyan Tapan

Se p 3, 2008

STEPANAKERT, SEPTEMBER 3, NOYAN TAPAN. On September 2, NKR President
Bako Sahakian met with RA Defence Minister Seyran Ohanian, who had
arrived in Stepanakert to take part in the festive events dedicated
to the 17th anniversary of proclamation of the Republic of Nagorno
Karabakh. As Noyan Tapan was informed by the General Information
Department of NKR President’s Administration, a number of issues
regarding army building and bilateral relations were discussed at the
meeting, in which NKR Defence Minister Movses Hakobian also took part.

GOOD RELATIONS OF A NUMBER OF BANKS WITH SOME INSURANCE COMPANIES INFRINGE ON THE FREEDOM OF CHOICE OF THEIR CLIENTS

arminfo
2008-09-03 21:28:00

ArmInfo. The good relations of a number of banks with some insurance
companies infringe on the freedom of choice of their clients, the
chairman of the State Committee on Protection of Economic Competition
Ashot Shahnazaryan said today.

The Committee has started administrative proceedings on the basis
of a written application of the chairman of the Central Bank of
Armenia Artur Javadyan, who says that when granting mortgage or car
loans some banks advise their clients to apply to specific partner
insurance companies.

The Committee says that the clients of ACBA-Credit Agricole Bank,
Areximbank, Byblos Bank and Armbusinessbank are served exclusively
by INGO Armenia insurance company, the clients of Cascade Bank,
Ardshininvestbank and Artsakhbank – by RASKO, Prometey Bank – by Nairi
Insurance. In some cases the banks are direct or indirect founders of
their partner insurance companies. Particularly, Armeconombank holds
20% stake in Sil Insurance, Cascade Capital Holding (Cascade Bank)
– 65% stake in Cascade Insurance with 96% of its clients insuring
their property in that company.

The Committee has ruled that the actions of the above-mentioned nine
banks infringe on fair competition and has warned them. The Committee
has instructed the CB to take measures to ensure equal conditions
for all financial market participants and to inform clients that they
are free to choose whatever insurance company they like.

ARMENTEL SEES FIBRE-OPTIC COVERAGE THROUGHOUT ARMENIA WITHIN 3-5 YEARS
by Michael Lacquiere

World Market Research Centre
Global Insight
September 2, 2008

Armenian fixed-line and mobile operator Armentel has indicated that
it plans to switch to fibre-optic communication throughout the
country within three to five years, reports ARKA, citing company
general director Neycho Velichkov. As such, the current 960-kilometre
fibre-optic network is likely to be doubled next year. The network
currently includes a 91-kilometre stretch in the capital, Yerevan,
as well as 40 kilometres in Giumry and Vanadzor. No financial details
of the expansion plans have been disclosed.

Significance:The move is aimed at expanding the current range
of value-added services across the entire population. These
services currently include multimedia offerings and video
communications. Fibre-based services also offer faster data and
internet transfer speeds than copper-based DSL services. In 2006,
Armentel’s investments in both the fixed and mobile sectors totalled
$60US million, a figure set to rise to $74US million in 2008.

Rezonansi, Tbilisi, Georgia
Aug 29 2008

Russian military bases in Java, Gudauta and Ochamchire.

Moscow has already unofficially confirmed that Russian military bases
will be stationed in ‘independent’ Abkhazia and South Ossetia

by Lili Khmaladze

A Russian military-diplomatic source told Interfax [news agency] that
Russia is likely to station military bases in Ochamchire, Gudauta
[Abkhazia] and Java [South Ossetia], the places where the military
bases were stationed during the Soviet period. According to the same
source, it is possible that paratroopers, aviation and air defence
systems will be stationed in Gudauta, ships of the Black Sea fleet in
the port of Ochamchire and a mountain rifle brigade in Java.

It is geopolitically important to Russia to station military bases in
Georgia. It will dock its ships in Abkhazia and will be in a better
position to put pressure on Tbilisi from Tskhinvali. Furthermore, it
cannot be ruled out that military settlements will be established in
the vicinity of the bases, which is likely to be especially painful
for Abkhazia.

Are these plans devised by Moscow feasible and what are the possible
consequences? Irakli Sesiashvili, expert in military issues, talked
about it in conversation with Rezonansi.

Russian bases: negative repercussions

Irakli Sesiashvili: "Russia is already seizing the territories where
it will station its military bases. It will try its best to have the
first military checkpoint [to confront] NATO placed far from the North
Caucasus. Russia is doing all of this because it has no intention of
ceding Abkhazia and South Ossetia to Georgia, it makes every effort to
resist this.

"From political viewpoint, we should not expect it to relinquish these
regions. Currently, the final stage is under way when it is making its
intentions official.

"There is another negative aspect to the stationing of the military
bases. When there were military bases in this region during the Soviet
period, there were so-called ‘military towns’ on their territories
where officers’ families lived. When the new bases are set up,
contractor soldiers will serve there and their wives and children are
likely to move there as well.

"The Russian colonization has never brought about anything positive
for anyone. Soon, there will be no local population left in these
regions. They will be completely russianized. The gene pool, culture
and language of these nations will be seriously harmed. The time will
come when the Abkhaz and Ossetians will rebel against russianization
(the latter are less likely to do so).

"As for Russia’s interests in this region, it does not care about
either [South] Ossetia or Abkhazia. Russia has its own plan. [Abkhaz
separatist leader Sergey] Bagapsh and [South Ossetian separatist
leader Eduard] Kokoyty effectively mean nothing to it. Russia is
employing a systemic approach towards these regions and is trying to
use them according to its needs. It definitely needs the Black
Sea. After leaving Ukraine’s area of water, it does not have a place
to dock its military ships and Abkhazia is a suitable region [to this
end].

"As for Tskhinvali [South Ossetia], Tbilisi is close to it and it is a
good means of putting pressure [on Georgia]. Tskhinvali is in effect
the second frontline.

"These bases are likely to be staffed with Russia’s elite armed units
since it is possible that they will be used for engaging in combat
operations here. Furthermore, we are talking about Russia’s open
border with NATO. I cannot rule out that strategic missiles will be
stationed at these military bases.

"As regards Russia’s real reason for stationing military bases on
Abkhaz territory, this territory is of geostrategic importance to
it. Especially given its direct contact with NATO’s border. This is
why arming these regions and creating maximum security zones there
represent a priority to Russia. Abkhazia and South Ossetia will be
large ‘nests’ with weapons where 80 per cent of the population will be
in military service."

A risky step

Giorgi Tavdgiridze, expert in military issues, gave a different
assessment to the opening of the Russian military bases. He said that
this is a political argument in response to NATO’s attack. He rules
out the extermination of the local population’s gene pool on the
territory of Abkhazia and South Ossetia and believes that the presence
of the Russian bases on these territories will cause poverty and
intensify looting.

[Khmaladze] How would you assess Russia’s plans on stationing military
bases in the separatist regions?

[Tavdgiridze] Russia is trying to "boost" economic development in
these regions with this step. These bases will have no military value
whatsoever because they are stationed quite far from each
other. Should they restore the railway in Abkhazia, this region might
acquire military value but the Georgian side will eventually get hold
of a military base in Java.

One thing is clear: we have lost the war and have to prepare for a
future war. All steps that Russia has taken so far indicate that it
has blocked all routes of peace talks to our country. It is not
interested in diplomatic relations with Georgia and wants not only to
incorporate Abkhazia and South Ossetia de facto but to swallow them
completely. The construction of the military bases is one of the steps
taken to this end. I have to note, however, that this is quite a risky
step on Russia’s part as this effectively means leaving hostages on
these territories. Nevertheless, at the same time, it is a step
forward on the military front for Russia.

It is unfortunate that any kind of diplomatic negotiations with Russia
are pointless and the restoration of the territorial integrity will be
protracted for as long as Russia maintains military bases on Abkhaz
and South Ossetian territories.

We effectively have to start everything from scratch. We have to
observe Russia’s and Abkhazia’s reaction. To tell you the truth, I
have not noticed the Caucasian pride in Ossetians. The Abkhaz,
however, are the ethnic group which has proved several times with its
actions that it wants to be independent and sides with Russia because
it helps it in achieving this goal. Abkhazia will now be an
independent nation where four Russian bases will be stationed. I have
to remind you that, in reality, a military base still remains on the
territory of Gudauta. It would be interesting to see if freedom-loving
Abkhaz will tolerate the Russian boot.

[Khmaladze] What will change for the local population once the bases
are stationed?

[Tavdgiridze] One cannot surprise Tskhinvali with a crime
situation. In effect, this entity has failed to become established,
they did not have an internal structure. The South Ossetian leadership
was engaged in criminal score-settling. Thus, the situation here will
remain unchanged with its poverty and lack of education.

As for Abkhazia, it has to be said that even dreams about business and
development of tourism are now over. Impoverished looters whom we have
seen on Georgian territory before will settle there.

US, German military bases are commercially profitable. They facilitate
the development of infrastructure. Their high salaries are spent in
nearby areas. The impoverished Russian officers cannot trigger
economic development. Several dozens of people could find employment.

We have to strengthen our economy and army now. We have to change the
strategy of state building. We have to know that Russians are our
enemies. Also, we have disloyal and ungrateful citizens – Ossetians
and Abkhaz – who will not become our friends unless something changes
in them, and it is up to us to manage and achieve this as well.

We have to respond to an enemy appropriately. There will be gangs made
up of Ossetians, Abkhaz and Cossacks. It is now time for reasonable,
purposeful actions. The story continues. The society must devise a
well-calculated strategy rather than slogans.

Response to NATO

[Khmaladze] Do you think that the stationing of these bases will
affect demographics in Abkhazia in reality?

[Tavdgiridze] We have to save Abkhazia from russianization. This is a
Caucasian nation and Georgia lays claims on being a defender of
Caucasian ethnic groups – it has always fought for this. We should not
let more than 10 years pass before we regain these regions. I do not
think that the number of Russian soldiers stationed in these regions
will be large enough to cause elimination of ethnic groups
there. Should Armenians be employed as soldiers there, conflicts might
occur.

Assimilation takes years and if we give them so much time, we will not
even be able to have any claims afterwards.

[Khmaladze] What does Russia really want to achieve by stationing
these bases?

[Tavdgiridze] Russia cannot build its bases and cannot provide its
officers with accommodation. If it were so easy to construct bases, it
would not have ceded its positions in Vietnam. This is PR and we are
used to it. That is to say, in reality, these bases will not be what
they say they will be. Russia will start something – there will be
shacks and obsolete tanks there. It is unrealistic that they will set
up new air bases. Russia has acquired two additional freeloaders,
Abkhazia and South Ossetia, which will burden the Russian budget.

This is a Soviet and post-Soviet policy, that is to say,
muscle-flexing. The argument cited by Russian politicians is that the
United States is surrounding Russia and Russia has to respond to
it. The stationing of bases in Abkhazia and South Ossetia will be
Russia’s foreign policy argument.

I think that we should not give an additional trump card to
Russia. Georgia is the only responsibility for the United States and
Europe. Our politicians have turned it into a responsibility and they
have shouldered it. However, if we make this responsibility heavier,
the West will not last long.

Our society must elaborate a realistic action plan and we have to act
promptly without waiting for some hero who will save us. If we fail to
do so, there will be 10 bases in Georgia, not three.

[translated from Georgian]