Author: Chatinian Lara

“NAIRIT FACTORY” CJSC RESUMES PRODUCTION
YEREVAN, JANUARY 24. ARMINFO. One of the world leader of the chemical
industry – Armenian “Nairit Factory” CJSC will resume the production
of synthetic rubber within the nearest two days, Director of the
factory Rouben Saghatelyan told ARMINFO.
According to him, the enterprise standing idle since August of 2004
has resumed the production of hydrate of sodium, liquid chlorine for
purification of drinking water and other non-basic production from the
beginning of 2005. Saghatelyan noted that the enterprise was
transferred to management the Armenia’s Ministry of Energy, but he
refused to inform the terms of the transfer.
Earlier, in the Armenian Parliament, Prime-Minister Andranik Margaryan
stated that “after two failed attempts of selling the factory the
Government undertook its management and decided to resume its activity
itself to increase the investment attraction”. He added that Armenia’s
Government will look for an investor for resumption of rubber
production on butadiene base for which from 10 to 12 mln USD will be
need.
To note, the accounts of “Nairit factory” CJSC were arrested in the
summer of 2004 because of payables. The sum of factory’s debts total
about 30 mln USD. -R-

Global Politician, NY
Jan 24 2005
EXPERT INTERVIEW: Caucasus is No Longer the Source of Discord for
Russia and Turkey
By GP Interview Staff
Ruben Safrastyan, Ph.D. is a Professor of International Relations at
Acharyan University in Yerevan, Armenia. He’s also the Director of
the Department of Turkish Studies at the Armenian National Academy of
Sciences. In the past, he served as a Counselor of the Armenian
Embassy in Germany and was the Deputy Director of the Department of
Political Analysis for the Office of the President of Armenia.
Mr. Safrastyan, the results of the visit of Vladimir Putin to Ankara
and the following visit of Turkish Prime Minister R. T. Erdogan to
Moscow testify that Russian-Turkish relations have become closer.
Only the fact that 600 Turkish businessmen accompanied Erdogan
testifies much. How great is the potential of political rapprochement
of Turkey and Russia in your opinion? Or the observed processes come
to lobbying of the interests of Russian business in Turkey?
Well, as regards 600 Turkish businessmen, it is an absolute record.
Usually, prime ministers take with them some 200 people. Of course,
it testifies that the Turkish business circles are rather interested
in Russia. The volume of Turkish investments in Russia is rather
great, at present. The economic interests prevail on the part of
Russia as well. In general, Putin’s Administration has marked the
economic direction as a priority, as I understand. In this
connection, I’d like to mention the statement of Anatoliy Chubays
about the liberal empire, which, by the way, made enough fuss in
Armenia as well. Anyhow, it is evident that both Russia and Turkey
are interested in development and deepening of the economic component
of the cooperation in various spheres. It is the most important, but,
at the same time, just one side of the medal.
The second factor is that both Russia and Turkey are not enough
satisfied with their present positions in the world. These states are
dissatisfied with the fact that they are not the leading players in
the world arena, and this dissatisfaction makes them closer, to some
extent. The changes which took place in the foreign policy of Turkey
during the last years connected with worsening of its strategic
relations with the USA, and, which is the most important, worsening
of the Turkish-Israeli relations, testify to a new direction in the
Turkish policy. That is, aspiration for more independence. The same
concerns Russia. Moscow tries to use the privileges gained during the
last years due to high prices for oil not only in the economic
sphere, but also to make it a certain strategic unit. Thus, the two
super powers dissatisfied with their role in the world try to find
their new place, a new niche in the world policy. In this background,
rapprochement of Russia and Turkey is possible not only in economy,
but also at a strategic level. The declaration on the results of
Putin’s visit to Ankara contained such a concept as multilateral
cooperation for the first time. In the course of Erdogan’s last visit
to Moscow, the strategic cooperation was already in question, though
it was not put on paper. Meanwhile, the term `multilateral
cooperation’ was not only fixed, but also was perceived and presented
by the parties to the world as a new degree in the bilateral
relations. It is necessary to pay attention to another circumstance.
Putin stated in Astana that quite unexpectedly for him Turkey had
displayed an interest in Shanghai Cooperation Organization
(Kazakhstan, China, Kirgizistan, Russia and Uzbekistan are included
in SCO – ed.). The Shanghai six is known to try to lay a foundation
of a new union of states, which will play a considerable role in that
region in future, as SCO leaders think. Russia and China are mainly
in question. The fact that Turkey has displayed an interest in SCO is
an evidence of rather serious changes in the foreign policy of that
country. In this connection, it is necessary to mention the concept
presented by Erdogan’s adviser for foreign policy, Professor Ahmet
Davutoglu in his book entitled `Strategic Depth’ in 2000. The term
strategic depth itself belongs to military science and characterizes
an interest of a country that its strategic facilities are in the
depth inaccessible for a possible rival. However, during the last
decades, several states, in particular, Pakistan, Israel, applied the
given concept to general political and strategic issues. It was just
in this light that Professor Davutoglu tried to apply the given
concept to Turkey perceiving the strategic depth not only in the
spatial, but also historical expression. He speaks of Turkey like a
country having a historical depth and entering the 20th century
alongside with seven empires controlling over the big regions in the
world. At the same time, he draws a conclusion that Turkey must play
a great role in the world arena and it must not be treated as a small
European country. According to the concept, all the territories once
included in the Ottoman Empire are strategically important
territories for present day Turkey and it must play a special role
there. In the special expression, the strategic depth is interpreted
by Davutoglu as establishment of not only good-neighbored relations
with the direct neighbors of Turkey, but also an aspiration that
these states enclose the greatest part of their policy in Turkey. For
example, for Georgia and Bulgaria cooperate through Turkey. In this
connection, Davutoglu is perceived in Turkey as a supporter of
neo-Ottomanism.
Giving an analysis to the Party Justice and Development (PJD) ruling
in Turkey, we arrive to a conclusion that it tried to put the
aforementioned concept into practice. Today Turkey exerts great
efforts to improve the relations with its neighbors. For example, at
the end of the 20th century, Turkey was in disagreeable relations
almost with all its neighbors, both in the Arab world and in the
Caucasus and with Iran. The picture is different at present. One
should not ignore the Eurasian subject matter either. The program of
the PJD mentions the Eurasian subject matter as well. An agreement of
cooperation in Eurasia was signed between Turkey and Russia in New
York in 2001. According to this document, task groups at a high level
were formed, which would coordinate the policy of the two countries
in the Eurasian space. Despite the fact that these groups gathered
some three of four times in that period of time, the attempt to
coordinate geo-strategies between Turkey and Russia in the Eurasian
space testifies much.
As a result, if one studies the conceptual basis of the existing
Russian-Turkish relations, the following two concepts go into it:
strategic depth and Eurasian subjects. In this aspect, the existing
trends can be characterized as an aspiration of the two regional
super powers to deaden regional cooperation, which, of course, still
remains, to strengthen economic cooperation and gradually begin to
solve geo-strategic tasks.
Let us suppose that Russia and Turkey are dissatisfied with their
positions in the world arena and try to coordinate their acts to
increase their rating. How will the USA and Europe response to it? It
is right to consider the rapprochement with Russia an alternative for
Turkey in the issue of joining the EU, taking into account the
tension in the relations of Russia with the EU?
I shall start with the last question. In the course of his visit to
Ankara, Putin, in particular, said the following: you needn’t
admission to the European Union; you’d better deepen the cooperation
with us. If Turkey becomes a EU-member, it will be more difficult for
it to cooperate with Russia. It was in early December. By the way,
these words of Putin arouse a negative response of Turkey. However,
already on December 17, the situation changed. In the course of
Erdogan’s visit to Moscow, Putin made a cardinally opposite statement
coming to the following: it is very good that the EU has made a right
decision and Turkey will be admitted to the EU. As a result, our
cooperation will even more strengthen.
There are rather influential forces in Turkish elite, which thinks
about the following: Europe is a good think, indeed, and we should
become part of it, but to be respected, we must have a reliable and
influential rear. And the greater is the influence outside the EU,
the more influence we shall gain inside it. Thus, Turkey, of course,
will do everything to use the privileges gained during the last
two-three years in the aspect of the increase in its influence and
reputation in the eyes of Europeans, including though development of
relations with Russia. It is the meaning of a group.
These is also a pro-American group sure that Turkey should aspire for
maintenance of special relations with the USA, and that aspiration
for the EU and the relations with Russia are of secondary importance,
in the given case. At present, this group is ousted from big
politics, but it is still very strong. The Eurasian group, which is
marginal, belongs to the third wing. It is for the necessity of
deepening relations with Iran, as well as with Russia and China,
including, within the frameworks of SCO.
As regards the top ruling over Turkey at present, one should not
forget that these people belong to the traditional Turkish elite.
There is a very interesting opinion that today Turkey is coming back
to the very natural appearance it must be in. It is connected with
the fact that the ruling party expresses the aspirations and
interests of the greatest part of the population unlike all the other
Turkish rulers, starting from Young Turks, who implanted definite
concepts contradicting to the Turkish mentality. In this aspect, the
greatest part of the Turkish elite does not perceive seriously the
people who are in power at present. The first think that Turkey must
not exceed the frameworks of the traditional policy, as it is
stronger in an alliance with the USA. Thus, anti-Americanism in
Turkey cannot bring any considerable political dividends, though, at
the same time, the country itself is one of the most anti-American
ones, as to public sentiments, leaving behind the same Iran. It is
this public anti-Americanism that is used by the PJD ruling in
Turkey. They play on it and it is part of their very big internal
popularity.
What do you think of Moscow’s position on the Cyprus problem,
especially in the light of the failure of UN Secretary General’s
plan?
After the Turkish part of Cyprus voted for Kofi Annan’s plan,
Vladimir Putin stated that it is absolutely senseless and foul to
continue isolating the Turkish part of Cyprus. Of course, Turks were
pleasantly surprised with the words of the Russian President. Judging
by the official reaction of the Greek and Cyprian parties, they have
seen no real sign of a change in Moscow’s policy in this issue yet.
The EU is known to prepare for presentation of a new plan of
resolution to Cyprian problem, however, as I know, Russia is for
Annan’s plan and it will not support that of the EU. I think, the
fact that Turks provided Russia with an opportunity to occur in the
internal gas, oil and now energy markets of Turkey played a definite
role here. The privatization of Turkish energy distribution networks
is in process, with Russia displaying an interest in it. Besides, a
possibility of laying electricity transmission lines along the bottom
of Black Sea is currently under consideration. It is most probably
that Russia also gave its agreement on the construction and even
financing of the Trans-Thracian oil pipeline. Construction of a gas
terminal in the port Ceyhan is supposed to become the largest Russian
investment program abroad, though no official announcements have been
made in this connection.
It is necessary to assess as another factor that 40,000-strong
Turkish army is dislocated in Cyprus, which is favorable for the USA
as Cyprus is close to Egypt, Lebanon, Syria and, which is the most
important, to Ceyhan. Factually, in the strategic aspect, Cyprus
protects Ceyhan, i.e. the uninterrupted supply of oil from Ceyhan
terminal. Americans plan to construct a military base in Cyprus,
where they have a tracking base, which is the largest in the Middle
East controlling over the South Caucasus, Middle East and Arab
states. As regards Europe, it is also favorable for it that Cyprus be
restored as a united state. If Annan’s plan were accepted, Europe
would have to allocate over $20 billion for its implementation.
Still, how real is Turkey’s full membership at the EU? Whether
Europe’s response will be in favor of Ankara in this connection?
I do not think the prospect of a positive response so simple. Turkey
may receive a negative answer as well. In my opinion, the European
public is not satisfied with the decision to start talks for Turkey’s
admission to the EU adopted on December 17. In their turn, France and
Austria stated that they would announce a referendum on the given
issue. Meanwhile, it is a factual rejection to Ankara taking into
account the existing realities. Evidently, there is a great field for
bargaining here and the result will depend on Turkey’s state. Let’s
think of the issue seriously. Europe feels no need in Turkey. Just
one geo-political factor can be a clear answer to it – EU with Turkey
is one thing, while EU without Turkey is quite another. On the other
hand, I have grounds to suppose that Armenia will become a EU
member-state sooner than Turkey.
In the course of Russian-Turkish negotiations in Moscow, the issues
of the Armenian agenda, including Karabakh problem and the blockade
of the Armenian-Turkish boundary, were also in question. What do you
think, whether the rapprochement of Russia and Turkey is able to
influence the position of the Russian party on the Karabakh problem
or become a reason for an unfavorable shuffle of the Armenian cards?
Before answering the question, I’d like to draw your attention to
data of a survey carried out by the Russian Center for Public Opinion
Studies (VCIOM) on the attitude of Russians to Turkey. According to
these data, 71% of Russians display a positive attitude to Turkey,
51% consider it a reliable trade-and-economic partner, and 16% think
it a fraternal country. The Gallop International in Georgia asked a
similar question. The following data were fixed: only 7% of Georgians
consider Turkey a reliable partner, another 13% see some danger in
that country. To compare, only 3% of Russians think that Turkey is an
enemy country and a probable rival.
Deepening of political cooperation of Russia with Turkey is in the
background of a factual closure of Turkey’s approach to the South
Caucasus. I think the spring of 2002 a crucial point in this respect.
Then Americans made a decision to dispatch a limited contingent of
military instructors to Georgia. As I know, dispatch of Turkish
specialists to Georgia was considered initially. However, in future,
Washington refused from that idea. Probably, Turkey’s role as a
junior partner, assistance of the USA in its expansion to the South
Caucasus, is brought to the minimum at present. Though, we
mechanically keep considering Turkey the major guide of US policy. It
is not so. I think, establishment of new type mobile bases of the USA
in Georgia is a question of time, but probably it will happen in
Azerbaijan at first. So, in this respect, in the Caucasus, Turkey is
no longer dangerous for Russia. That is, the Caucasus, which was an
apple of discord for the two empires for centuries, is
no longer the same. It should be noted that at the beginning of the
last century, the Caucasus was divided between Soviet Russia and
Kemalist Turkey, in the first half of 90s when Russia’s withdrawal
resulted in vacuum in the Caucasus, Turkey tried to fill that vacuum.
Then Russia began returning and Turkey withdrawing again. But, then
occurred the USA, which neglected both Russia and Turkey in the same
way and acted as it thought fit. Hence, the geo-political rivalry of
Russia and Turkey in the Caucasus has been brought to the minimum,
which made their deeper cooperation possible, on the whole. In this
background, of course, the Turkish party each time raises an issue to
Moscow concerning the pressure on its ally, Armenia, to make it
release the territories. Turkey raised this issue in the course of
Putin’s visits to Ankara and to Moscow recently. However, to all
appearances, Russia each time rejects it. Speaking at a press
conference, Putin stated rather exactly that Russia had no intention
to exert pressure on any country; it would limit itself with the role
of a mediator and a guarantor of fulfillment of the agreements to be
signed by the parties. Sergey Ivanov stated almost the same in the
USA. That is, I do not share the concerns of definite political
circles of Armenia that Russia will expert pressure on us in the
issue of Karabakh in favor of Turkey. There are no real grounds for
it. Russia and Turkey have many other spheres to go on compromises.
But, I repeat, at the present level of Russia-Turkey and
Russia-Armenia relations a pressure on Yerevan on Karabakh problem is
ruled out.
Is it possible that Moscow exerts pressure both on Armenia and
Azerbaijan demanding resolution of the issue in the nearest future?
Turkey is not a country able to affect the process of Karabakh
conflict’s resolution within the framework of OSCE Minsk Group. It
can influence the process as it did one or two times torpedoing
almost ready agreements in 90s using all its influence on Azerbaijan.
At the given stage, Turkey is unable to influence Russia in order
that it, in its turn, influences Armenia. Moscow will not go on it.
A decision to start negotiations with Turkey for its admission to the
EU was made on December 17. Naturally, the process will last long.
What do you think, how heavy factor of pressure on Turkey by Europe
can become the Armenian Clause?
At first, Armenia does not perceive adequately what has happened. The
Armenian Clause is included into the agenda of the big European
politics. That is, it has happened what Armenians aspired for
decades. It is a fact, which Armenia is not fully aware of. By the
way, it does not mean that this issue cannot be in the same agenda.
Yet at the beginning of the last year, Chirac said although the fact
of the Genocide was adopted by the French Parliament, the issue of
recognition of the Armenian Genocide by Turkey must be solved by
Ankara and Yerevan; but, everything changed by the end of the year.
It was not only Chirac that pointed out the necessity of raising the
issue of recognition of the Armenian Genocide by Turkey, but also one
of the leading politicians N. Sarkozy and Foreign Minister M.
Barnier.
One should not forget that Armenia is a sovereign state, which is
able to play a definite role and does it. At the same time, for me
personally, dividends can be exclusively moral. Recognition of the
Genocide by Turkey is my duty to the annihilated generations. What is
the policy of the European Union? These are political decisions
adopted by bureaucratic structures of the EU and the EU
member-states. However, not only pragmatic calculations and political
interests, but also public opinion influence the adoption of these
decisions. It is a very strong resource of influence on the policy of
the EU in the Armenian Clause. I think Armenia does not use it fully.
I think diplomacy is diplomacy, but the public resource must be used.
Today Turkey exerts great efforts to protect its interests in the
issue of Genocide. At the end of December, the Foreign Minister of
Turkey, Abdullah Gul, met MPs and stated, in particular, the
following: the issue of admission to the EU comes to that of
recognition of the Armenian Genocide. That is, as to the remaining
issues, compromises can be found. Meanwhile, there is no compromise
in the issue of the Genocide, either Turkey recognizes it or not. I
think Europe will be adherent in this issue. Meanwhile, one should
not hope for Diaspora, but to express its position exactly and insist
on it.
What do you think, whether the crisis in the American-Turkish
relations is able to lead to recognition of the Armenian Genocide by
Turkey, taking into account Washington’s statements that Turkey
should not forget about the events of the beginning of the last
century when raising the issue of Kirkuk? It is necessary to mention
that 30 States have recognized the Armenian Genocide.
The Armenian Diaspora of the USA has rather wide lobbying activities.
However, I think that it made a very big fault. In the course of the
last presidential election in the USA, it supported John Kerry only
and has practically broken its ties with Republicans unlike the first
elections. Definite attempts of diversifications are currently made,
however, the positions of the Armenian lobby in the USA have become
considerably weak. Even without taking it into account, I do not
think that the Republican Administration of the White House will go
on recognition of the Genocide. In my opinion, neo-conservatives just
dislike Armenians.
Today the Armenian public is concerned for the possibility of
Armenia’s being bypassed by the new project to build a railroad
connecting Turkey with Georgia and Azerbaijan. Do you see any good
grounds in the urges for abandoning the idea of the Armenian Genocide
recognition in order to avoid the lot of a deadlock country for
Armenia?
I don’t accept such a formulation. There can be no 100% benefit or
detriment from one or another decision. As for concerns, they are
inspired by Turkey and come to one single formula – cooperation or
deadlock. Meanwhile, Armenia has a big advantage over the other South
Caucasian states. We have preserved our territorial integrity unlike
Georgia and Azerbaijan, which, according to the well-known concept,
is the first feature of a full-fledged state. Armenia has been
controlling big (in regional dimensions) territories for ten years
already managing in the meantime to enhance its economic growth.
These two factors alone show that Armenia cannot be a deadlock
country. On the contrary, today we are the dominating center of this
geo-political area and being in the center both geographically and
geo-politically one cannot simply get in a deadlock. This is an
axiom. Of course, Turkey and Azerbaijan may want to bypass Armenia.
But I don’t think that Georgia might want the same. The real actors
on the global arena, such as the US and Russia, will nonetheless be
guided by geo-political ends in the first place. It’s not a
coincidence that Armenia has been officially included in the
`North-South’ international transport corridor. As for the
above-mentioned Kars (Turkey)-Akhalkaki (Georgia) railroad, this idea
was first expressed by Shevardnadze while Saakashvili signed the
agreement already. As you may know Saakashvili has an idée fix to
make Batumi a big transport center with an airport of international
importance. To have a free hand he needs to connect Batumi with Kars
– this project is part of his plan. In any case, I don’t see any big
threat for Armenia – if the South Caucasian borders are opened we
will be able to join this road at any moment.
The interview was originally conducted by the Regnum News Agency and
provided to the Global Politician by Prof. Safrastyan.

ATTEMPT BY AZERBAIJANI MP TO RAISE ISSUE ON “DESTRUCTION OF
AZERBAIJANI CULTURAL MONUMENTS IN SHUSHA” AT PACE CULTURAL COMMITTEE
WILL REMAIN WITHOUT RESULTS
YEREVAN, JANUARY 20. ARMINFO. An attempt by the Azerbaijani MP
R.Huseynov to raise the issue on “destruction of the monuments of the
Azebraijani culture in Shusha” at the Cultural Committee of PACE will
remain without results. A member of the Armenian delegation to PACE
Shavarsh Kocharyan told ARMINFO.
He said that the Azerbaijani MP tries to attract the attention of
European MPs to not existing and invented issues once more, Shavarsh
Kocharyan said that Huseynov had already made a inquiry for this issue
to the CE Committee of Minister before. Earlier, Shavarsh Kocharyan
himself made a inquiry to CECM for the issue of destruction of the
Armenian cemetery in Nakhichevan. The Armenian MP said that on Dec 15,
CECM considered both inquiries, expressed concern in this connection,
and called the parties to refrain themselves from such acts, if they
really took place.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress

Armenia, Arab League sign memo on mutual understanding
Public Television of Armenia, Yerevan
19 Jan 05
[Presenter] A new page of Armenian-Arab cooperation opened by signing
a memorandum on mutual understanding in Cairo today. Arab League
Secretary-General Amr Musa and Armenian Foreign Minister Vardan
Oskanyan signed the memorandum on mutual understanding envisaging
cooperation between the two sides in the political, cultural,
scientific and other spheres.
[Vardan Oskanyan, on the telephone from Cairo] First of all, I want to
say that the memorandum signed today between the Republic of Armenia
and the Arab League countries is undoubtedly a historic event. I
consider that it opens the new page for the further development and
intensification of the Armenian-Arab relations. The signing of this
document is a positive result of the ancient historical and cultural
relations between the Armenian and Arab peoples as well as Armenia’s
foreign policy with regard to the Arab countries. This memorandum on
mutual understanding gives us an opportunity to carry out
consultations with the Arab League as an institution and to establish
cooperation with it in all spheres as well as with various Arab
countries via the Arab League.
Before and after the singing of the memorandum today we had the talks
with the secretary-general. We discussed various issues during the
talks. What is going on here, in the Arab region, today has an impact
on our region too. Today we also discussed the recent events in Iraq,
the election of new authorities in Palestine and other developments.
During the discussions, I informed about the situation in our Caucasus
region and also Armenia’s relations with its neighbours and the recent
developments around the Karabakh conflict.

NO VELVET REVOLUTION TO TAKE PLACE IN ARMENIA IN 2005-2006: RPA
YEREVAN, JANUARY 15. ARMINFO. The positive tendencies observed in
Armenia’s political and economic life in 2004 will continue in 2005
too, says the leader of the parliamentary faction of the Republican
Party of Armenia Galust Saakyan.
He refutes all the forecasts that a velvet revolution will take place
in Armenia in 2005-2006. One should not compare the situation in
Armenia with the situation in Georgia and Ukraine – so any attempts to
apply their scenarios in Armenia will fail, says Saakyan. At the same
time the opposition will continue its fight for government change.
As for the possible cancellation of the mandates of the opposition
deputies boycotting the parliament’s work Saakyan says that only their
voters can deprive them of their mandates. This issue must be
discussed in the parliament as the remaining MPs and the people should
know the opposition’s arguments.
Saakyan says that there are no prerequisites for the ruling
coalition’s split. There are certain contradictions over certain
issues but this is positive as heated debates often give birth to
effective solutions. The coalition’s fruitful activities will leader
to $1 bln budget in 2006 and 20%-25% reduction of poverty. 2005 will
see Armenia’s economic breakthrough and no political event will be
able to stop it.
As for the foreign policy Saakyan says that priority is given to the
Karabakh conflict settlement. “Karabakh is de facto independent and
this reality should be considered during the settlement talks.”
Armenia should continue its active involvement in peacekeeping and
anti-terror processes as this raises the country’s image.

Loulan vanished in sand
The Washington Times
January 14, 2005
By Erling Hoh, SPECIAL TO THE WASHINGTON TIMES
“What a wonderful place to stay this must have been,” wrote the Swedish
explorer Sven Hedin during his second visit to the ruins of Loulan, on
the eastern outskirts of China’s Taklamakan Desert in March 1901, seeing
in his mind’s eye the vanished town on the edge of Lake Lop Nor as it
must have looked 22 centuries ago.

He had journeyed earlier to this desolate region in the heart of Asia to
solve the riddle of the shifting Lop Nor, and unexpectedly stumbled on
the ruins of Loulan — an oasis town founded in the second century B.C.
that flourished for 800 years as the capital of the Shanshan kingdom,
described in Chinese historical annals by visitors long ago, before it
vanished into the sand.

The Tarim River gathers its water from the Kunlun Mountains in the
south, the Pamirs in the west and the Tian Shan Mountains in the north,
and flows in an eastward arc along the northern edges of the Taklamakan,
an ancient inland sea, toward the salt marshes of Lop Nor.

In its lifetime, Loulan was situated on the north shore of Lop Nor.
Then, in the fourth century, the Tarim River changed course and Lop Nor
moved south into the desert. Loulan, a town on the Silk Road connecting
China to Europe, was abandoned in the sixth century and slowly erased
from the face of the Earth by centuries of blowing sand.

Chinese silk has been found in the Hallstatt tumulus in Saulgau,
Germany, and in the Kerameikos graves of Athens, both of which date to
the sixth century B.C. “The Silk Road” is a term coined by the German
geographer Ferdinand von Richthofen in the 19th century. Silk must have
begun traveling west soon after it was first produced by the Chinese of
the Shang dynasty (1700 to 1100 B.C.).

The obstacles were formidable. To the southwest lay the Himalaya
Mountains, highest in the world, and the Tibetan Plateau. To the west
lay the world’s second-largest desert, the Taklamakan. The northern
steppes were controlled by hostile Mongols and Xiongnu.

This geographic and political reality channeled traders from central
China along the Gansu corridor to the western extremity of the Great
Wall and the oasis of Dunhuang. There, leaving the Chinese cultural
sphere, traders began a 17-day trek across the waterless, treacherous
Gobi Desert to the next oasis: Loulan — gateway to the Taklamakan.

Archaeologists have found the remains of several human settlements on
the northern and western shores of the old Lop Nor. Intriguingly, they
have discovered that Loulan and other oasis towns on the fringes of the
Taklamakan once were inhabited by people who most closely resemble
present-day Europeans.

In past decades, scores of naturally preserved, freeze-dried mummies
with European features have been unearthed on the edges of the Taklamakan.

One of the most famous, known as “the Beauty of Kroran,” was found by
Chinese archaeologists in 1980 north of the old Lop Nor. Buried about
3,800 years ago, clad in a woolen shroud and leather boots, she was in a
very good state of preservation. Her blondish-brown hair, about 12
inches long, was rolled up in a headdress made of felt over a woven
base, and topped with two goose feathers. With her in the grave were a
comb and a long, narrow straw basket.

In 139 B.C., the Chinese emperor Wudi dispatched his envoy Zhang Qian to
seek an alliance with the Yuezhi people, who lived north of the Oxus
River in present-day Uzbekistan. Sixteen years later, the envoy returned
with news of the riches of Central Asia and “blood-sweating” horses,
which the Chinese subsequently acquired to combat nomadic Xiongnu
raiders in the north.

On his long journey, Zhang passed through Loulan, where he recorded
1,570 households, and 14,100 persons, of whom 2,912 were soldiers. The
land was sandy and salty, and “the people accompany their herds of
animals, following the water and grass. They have donkeys, horses and
many camels. ”

After Zhang’s return, there were about 10 missions per year from the Han
court to Central Asia, and, as traffic on the Silk Road grew, it became
imperative for the Chinese to protect the route from the Xiongnu nomads.

The kingdom of Loulan was caught between the warring parties, and its
king was obliged to send his sons as hostages to both the Xiongnu and
the Chinese. In 77 B.C., at a banquet held in Loulan to greet the
Chinese envoy Fu Jiezi, Chang Gui, the king of Loulan, was stabbed to
death by the envoy’s guards and his severed head was hung from the tower
of the northern gate.

From then on, China asserted greater control over the area. It renamed
the kingdom Shanshan, moved the capital to an area southwest of Loulan,
and stationed a military commander there. In 55 B.C., Shanshan became a
puppet kingdom of Han China.

At Loulan, Hedin, the Swedish explorer of a century ago, excavated the
ruins of several houses, discovered a wooden tablet with Kharosthi
script — an ancient alphabet used to write the north Indian Prakrit
language — and documents of a Chinese official of the fourth century
dealing with various deliveries and the rental of animals.

Hedin also found a wooden Buddhist sculpture that helped scholars
understand the development of Buddhist niche styles in early Chinese
Buddhist art.

In 1906 and 1914, Aurel Stein, a Hungarian-British adventurer, conducted
excavations at Loulan. Among the many interesting objects he recovered
was a small bale of yellow silk, a fragment of a wool pile carpet, and
architectural wood carvings decorated in the Gandhara style.

Stein also investigated the remnants of the main site’s defensive wall
— a square with sides more than 1,000 feet long, about 20 feet wide at
the base, made in the traditional Chinese method of packed earth mixed
with reed straw.

In 1979 and 1980, a Chinese expedition collected 797 objects from the
Loulan area, among them many Mesolithic stone tools, wooden vessels,
bronze objects, jewelry and coins.

Within the remains of the town wall, the Chinese archaeologists
discovered remnants of a man-made canal, 55 feet wide and 15 feet deep,
running diagonally through the town from northwest to southeast. In the
northeast corner of the town, the archeologists surveyed a stupa — a
dome-shaped Buddhist shrine — of packed earth that rises 32 feet above
the ground.

And in the southeast corner, the team again sifted through the remains
of the Chinese official’s residence — a three-room house measuring 41
by 28 feet, with sturdy wooden pillars.

Most recently, an expedition to the Loulan region in 2003 by the
Xinjiang Archaeological Institute yielded some spectacular objects. The
excavation was conducted 110 miles east of the Loulan ruins at the
Xiaohe No. 5 burial ground, discovered in 1910 and first excavated by
the Swedish archeologist Folke Bergman in 1934.

The burial ground, a large sand mound 115 feet by 245 feet and 25 feet
high, is covered with 140 upright poplar logs and littered with many
more logs that have fallen over.

Near the center of the mound, the archaeologists unearthed yet another
spectacular mummy, naturally preserved through the centuries by the
lucky combination of desert climate and freezing winters. The female
corpse, found in a boat-shaped coffin, was wrapped in a wool blanket,
with a felt hat on her head and leather shoes on her feet.

Although the body has largely disintegrated, her facial features are
eerily intact. Among grave goods were ephedra sticks, a string bracelet
with a hollow jade stone, a leather pouch and a woolen loincloth.

Another intriguing find was a wooden mask painted red with a rather
grotesque nose protruding two inches from the face, and two large teeth.
The mask is decorated with seven strings across the bridge of the nose
and one string over the eyebrows.

In another boat-shaped coffin in the mound near that of the female
corpse was a wooden human figure, also wrapped in a wool blanket, buried
with a bow, arrows and a straw basket.

From Loulan, the oldest part of the Silk Road continues along the
southern edge of the Taklamakan, where archeologists have found several
other ghost towns and important sites called Miran, Charkhlik, Cherchen,
Endere and Niya buried in the desert sands.

The distance from Loulan to Niya, the westernmost town of the Shanshan
kingdom, is about 370 miles. To the west of Niya was the powerful
kingdom of Khotan. As the Taklamakan Desert expanded and water became
increasingly scarce, Niya was abandoned in much the same way as Loulan.

As silk and other precious objects traveled west, Buddhism, having
spread to the Tarim Basin from Bactria in present-day Afghanistan about
2,000 years ago, traveled east, entering China through Loulan and
Dunhuang. The ancient oasis towns on the fringes of the Taklamakan
Desert have all yielded abundant archaeological evidence of a thriving
Buddhist culture, with monasteries, temples, stupas, Buddhist
scriptures, sculptures and art.

Travelers and Buddhist pilgrims in the region from that time reported
that there were hundreds of monasteries and thousands of monks.

In addition to the archaeological remains and the Chinese historical
records, an important source of information regarding the Shanshan
kingdom are documents in Prakrit — dated to the third and fourth
centuries — discovered at Loulan, and above all Niya, where Stein
discovered more than 700 documents.

Prakrit was an administrative language of the Kushan empire, established
by the Yuezhi in Bactria to the west of the Pamir Mountains. In the
second century B.C., the Yuezhi people had been driven out of the Gansu
corridor by the Xiongnu, and were pushed west, where they established
their capital north of the Oxus River.

From there, the Kushan conquered the Indo-Greek empire of Bactria,
taking Kabul sometime after A.D. 25. The Kushan empire reached its
height in the second century — when, some scholars think, it extended
its influence into the Tarim Basin and eventually took control of the
Shanshan kingdom.

Most Prakrit documents found in Loulan and Niya were written on
rectangular wooden tablets, and deal with royal decrees, reports to high
officials, personal correspondence, Buddhist affairs, sales contracts
for land, slaves, and animals, verdicts and decisions, and various
lists. From these inscriptions, scholars have been able to establish the
names of five kings of this second Shanshan kingdom — Pepiya, Tajaka,
Amgvaka, Mahiri and Vasmana.

From 1902 to 1914, the Berlin Ethnological Museum carried out several
expeditions to the region north of the Taklamakan Desert, and took home
documents in 17 languages, written in 24 scripts.

One of the languages was Tocharian. In 1908, the German scholars Emil
Sieg and Wilhelm Siegling published the first successful grammatical
analysis and translation of Tocharian, which was written in the north
Indian Brahmi, the script also used to write Sanskrit. The Tocharian
documents, mostly Buddhist writings, have been dated to the fifth to
seventh centuries.

Interestingly, Tocharian is not as closely related to the neighboring
Indo-European languages — Indo-Aryan and Iranian — as it is to western
Indo-European languages such as Italic and Celtic and the southeastern
branches of Indo-European: Thracian, Phrygian, Greek and Armenian.

The last document found at Loulan has been dated to A.D. 330.

According to the Chinese historian Li Jiangfeng, the final demise of
Loulan was not caused by a sudden change in the course of the Tarim
River, but by gradually diminishing water in the rivers that fed Lop Nor.

From Chinese and the Prakrit documents, we can see how the Loulan
people’s rations of black millet were gradually cut in half. Fees were
imposed for water, and misuse of that vital resource was fined.

According to what may be one of the world’s earliest environmental
protection laws, the fine for cutting down a living tree was a horse.
Finally, however, no political or economic wisdom could prevail against
the forces of nature, and Loulan was buried in sand.

In an ironic postscript to the history of Loulan, the Tarim River again
changed course in 1921, and Lop Nor returned to its northern position.
When Hedin revisited the ruins of Loulan in 1928, the old town was again
by the shore of Lop Nor.

After the Chinese Communist revolution in 1949, irrigated agriculture
and cotton production expanded all along the Tarim River. Several
reservoirs were built, and less and less water reached the river’s
terminal lake. By 1971, Lop Nor no longer existed and today, on
satellite photos, the salt-encrusted lake bed it left behind has the
intriguing appearance of a giant ear.

Azeri daily calls for more money to modernize army
Zerkalo, Baku
4 Jan 05

The daily Zerkalo has said that despite its increase by 80m dollars,
the Azerbaijani 2005 military budget is still not “militant”. In a
detailed front-paged analysis of the military budget, the daily said
that there are not enough funds to modernize the country’s military
hardware. In an interview with Zerkalo, a former Defence Ministry
official called for increased spending on R and D. The following is
the text of C. Sumarinli and M. Mammadov’s report by the Azerbaijani
newspaper Zerkalo on 4 January headlined “One should not go to war
with such a defence budget” and subheaded “Military expert reckons
that strategy of military spending has to be worked out”; subheadings
are as published:
Milli Maclis [Azerbaijan’s parliament] and the president have recently
endorsed the 2005 state budget which increases the military spending
by 80m dollars compared to 2004. According to the law on budget
published in the press, the total expenditure will add up to around
2bn dollars. Of this, the military spending will account for 12 per
cent, which means 240m dollars or 1,206bn manats. This is the third
biggest item of spending in the budget, after education (1,782bn
manats) and social security (1,5bn manats).
How will the 240m dollars earmarked for the military be allocated?
Before answering this question, let us first have a look at the common
practice of military spending. The state allocates the military
spending between salaries and pensions of the servicemen, spending on
food, uniform, arms and equipment, medical treatment, military
education and so on.
Salaries, pensions
This part of military spending is, by its nature, prone to change. A
number of experts reckon that there will be no increase in salaries of
the servicemen in 2005. However, it must be considered that it is in
2005 when the military expenditure has gone up in such an “anomalous”
way. Starting from 1999, the defence spending has been increasing by
10m dollars each year, but this time it surged by 80m dollars. So, a
sharp increase in funding will make it possible to raise the salaries
of the servicemen. Incidentally, there is talk of an increase in
salaries in the army, although the latest increase took place on 26
June 2004.
Today, a young lieutenant, graduate of a military school, will earn
between 450,000-500,000 manats [around 100 dollars] depending on where
he is serving (on the front line or in the army
rear). Correspondingly, a warrant officer earns between
300,000-500,000 manats [between 60 and 100 dollars]. A senior
lieutenant earns 500,000-800,000 manats [between 100 and 160
dollars]. It is clear that with such salaries young officers will be
unable to resolve many social and family issues.
Only the salaries of senior officers may be considered
satisfactory. Starting from the rank of captain and all the way up to
colonel-general, servicemen earn, including benefits for the rank,
between one and five million manats [between 250 and 1,000
dollars]. The defence minister has the highest-paid job in the armed
forces as he receives around 5,000,000 manats [over 1,000 dollars].
It will be interesting to see how much of the military spending is
“eaten up” by the salaries and pensions of the servicemen? A quarter
of the 80,000-strong Azerbaijani army is comprised of warrant officers
and officers, and the rest of privates and sergeants. If we assume
that warrant officers and officers receive on average nine million
manats or around 1,800 dollars per year, it is clear that the 2005
budget will have to spend 36m dollars on [their] salaries. Privates
and sergeants receive between 20,000 and 60,000 manats [between four
and 12 dollars] per month. Simple calculation shows that around five
million dollars or 24bn manats is needed each year to pay this
category of the servi cemen.
As for the servicemen’s pensions, it must be said that there are
12,000 such people in Azerbaijan and the average pension is some
500,000 manats. Hence, it takes 12m dollars a year to pay the
pensions. So, 53m dollars are spent each year on the salaries and
pensions.
Spending on food and uniform
Food supplies to the army have considerably improved over the past few
years. With the exception of some aspects, the National Army does not
face the problems it had five to six years ago. When compared with the
armed forces of the USA, UK and Russia, it is clear that the ration of
an Azerbaijani warrior is not inferior in any sense. The mainstay of
an Azerbaijani serviceman’s ration is bread (750 grammes), potatoes
and vegetables (900 grammes).
The Defence Ministry’s press service has shown us army ration pack No
1, which said that the servicemen receive daily food that consists of
29 items (one of them is Tseksavit which is a medicine). An American
soldier’s ration pack contains the same amount of items. The table of
components of ration pack No 1 shows that an Azerbaijani servicemen
consumes food worth 6,322 manats a day, or 189,661 manats a month,
which makes 2,276,000 manats a year (some 460 dollars). Thus, the
Azerbaijani army spends on food 27.6m dollars [per year].
Spending on uniform is one the main spending items in the military
budget. According to our preliminary calculations, uniforms costs the
Defence Ministry 8m dollars. This includes both the set of clothes for
the young conscripts and the regular renewal of the uniform of the
professional servicemen. We estimate that a uniform of each serviceman
is worth 600,000 manats.
Where else do money go?
Let us draw a preliminary conclusion from our research. We have learnt
that out of the military budget, 53m dollars is being spent on
salaries and pensions, 27m are being “eaten up” by food and 8m is
being spent on clothes. Overall, these three items costs the budget
88m dollars. To recap, the military budget is 240m dollars.
We should note that such spending accounts for 30 to 35 per cent of
the military budget, which is standard international practice. For the
first time in the past five to six years, Azerbaijan’s overall
spending on salaries, pensions, food and clothes matches the existing
practice of composition of the military budget.
We have touched on only several aspects of the military spending and
did not mention such important aspects as the modernization of
military hardware and weapons, the funding of the military schools,
operations of the military commissariats, health service, housing,
military exercises, foreign visits and postings to name a few.
In the opinion of independent military experts, the 2005 military
budget makes it possible to carry out “leapfrog” reforms of the
army. The weapons and military equipment, meaning transport and small
arms, will be partially renewed. The funds are insufficient for
modernizing the whole stock of military hardware.
As we have found out, the sharp increase in the defence spending has
to do with the rising expenditure on scientific research and
development (acquisition of computers, navigation and observation
devices, and communications hardware). Out of the 2005 budget, 10 to
15 per cent will be allocated to this end.
Hence, we can draw a conclusion that the nature of the defence
spending is peaceful, rather than “militant”. Taking into
consideration the occupation of part of the country, the experts
believe it is necessary to spend money on the defence in a
scientifically balanced way.
Strategy of military spending
Lt-Col (retd) Uzeyir Cafarov, formerly an employee of the Defence
Ministry’s military-research centre, said that the defence budget is
not enough to satisfy Azerbaijan’s military requirements. “If we want
our armed forces to be up to the world standards as soon as possible,
if we intend to set up powerful units capable of winning the future
war, then we must pay more attention to the defence.”
In the expert’s view, scientific research has to be done to form the
Azerbaijani army’s strategy for military spending. In the absence of
the strategy and in the existence of control over the allocation of
the funds, it is impossible to supply and equip the army and resolve
relevant issues.
Cafarov called for specific steps aimed at developing military science
and research, laying the scientific foundation for building the army
and recruiting competent specialists. “For instance, today’s agenda
includes the introduction of the alternative military service in
Azerbaijan. However, there has been no research as to whether this
kind of service would suit Azerbaijan. This fact alone means that more
attention has to be paid to the military research centres,” Cafarov
said.
The expert went on to say that by forming a national
military-industrial complex in Azerbaijan, it would be possible to
make some military budget savings. “Almost half of the weapons and
hardware in the army is obsolescent and has the service life of 20 to
30 years. A complete renewal of the hardware would require tremendous
spending. The way out of the situation is to create a
military-industrial complex as soon as possible,” Cafarov said.
In conclusion, let us report that Azerbaijan possesses the biggest
military budget in the South Caucasus. Armenia (the armed forces
comprise 40,000-50,000 servicemen) will spend 127m dollars on defence
in 2005, and Georgia (18,000-22,000 servicemen) will spend 70m
dollars.

FOCUS ON SOCIAL PROBLEMS
Azat Artsakh – Nagorno Karabakh Republic (NKR)
09 Jan 05
NKR State Budget 2005 increased social expenditure by 30 per cent. The
main strategy of social security and social insurance will be maximum
possible protection of socially vulnerable population through a
balanced developmentof the economy. In this context it is a priority
to regulate legislatively the relationships government – employer –
labour force. After the adoption of the Labour Code it is planned to
work out draft decisions of the NKR governmentwhich will favour the
enactment of the Code, including the decisions `On State Work Agency’,
`Obligatory Insurance against Accidents and Professional Diseases’, `
Obligatory Insurance against Temporary Disability’. A practical step
in the implementation of the salary policy is the increase in the
minimum salary from 10 to 15 thousand drams since January 1, 2005.
This year for the first timein the republic the basket of goods will
be calculated and maintained by the government for the coming three
years. It will underlie the maintenance of the size of the minimum
salary, pensions, scholarship, as well as benefits and allowances. In
2005 the salary of teachers increased by 65 per cent, healthworkers 26
per cent, certain specialists working in the sphere of culture 22.4
per cent. Pension will increase by 1000 drams and the value of one
year of service will total 160 drams (against 140 in 2004). Benefits
paid to different categories of children have been increased by about
50 per cent. 21 per cent of budget expenses (4 billion 490 million
drams exceeding 2004 by 317.7 million drams) will be directed at
social security and social insurance.
AA.
09-01-2005

Assa-Irada, Azerbaijan
Jan 6 2005
NGOs to evaluate PACE rapporteur’s report on Upper Garabagh

The National NGO Forum in its meeting on January 13 will discuss a
report prepared by British MP David Atkinson, the Parliamentary
Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) rapporteur on Upper Garabagh
conflict.
The report is due to be discussed at the winter session of PACE in
Strasbourg on January 25.
President of the Forum Azay Guliyev said Atkinson’s report contains
some provisions unacceptable for Azerbaijan, as they do not reflect
the interests of the country’s public.
Atkinson’s report was approved with several changes and supplements
compliant with Azerbaijan’s position in a meeting of the PACE
Political Committee held in Paris on November 17, 2004 and put on the
agenda of the Assembly’s winter session.*

USA Today
Dec 29 2004
With Iraq vote in a month, every day crucial to success
By Steven Komarow, USA TODAY
BAGHDAD – The white bed sheet, punctured and strung between a tree
and a utility pole, carries just a few words of hand-painted Arabic
script. “Every vote is more precious than gold,” it says – common
words in a normal election campaign.

But White House political guru Karl Rove would abandon his TV ad
budget for the power in this banner and thousands more like it.
It’s not just words but a fatwa, a decree, from Grand Ayatollah Ali
al-Sistani, spiritual leader of Iraq’s majority Shiite Muslims. Vote,
it says, or you have shirked your religious duty.
Forget blue states and red states. Allegiances in Iraq are in a
completely different league. In a country where Shiite Arabs are 60%
of the population – three times that of the next largest religious or
ethnic group – a slate of Shiite Muslim candidates associated with
Sistani is virtually certain to win control of Iraq’s new national
assembly in elections scheduled for Jan. 30.
A month before Iraqis take the biggest step yet in President Bush’s
plan to plant democracy in the former dictatorship, the eventual
tally is overshadowed by larger questions:
– Can free, fair elections be held in the midst of a violent
insurgency?
– Will a broad swath of Iraqi factions, including the Sunnis who
formed the backbone of Saddam Hussein’s regime but now threaten to
boycott, actually vote on Jan. 30 and thus make the results
legitimate?
– Will Iraqis abide by the popular vote and unite behind a Shiite-led
government? Or will Iraq succumb to what interim Prime Minister Ayad
Allawi warns is the insurgents’ plan to “create ethnic and religious
tensions” and possibly civil war?
The Bush administration predicts success. “People will be able to
look back and know that they’ve been involved … in something truly
historic,” Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld said last week during a
visit with some of the 148,000 U.S. troops stationed here.
A successful election also could let those troops start a withdrawal
from Iraq.
But even moderate Iraqis, such as Sunni elder statesman Adnan
Pachachi, say violence or a boycott jeopardizes the process. “A
non-inclusive election that leaves large parts of the country
unrepresented and millions of Iraqis disenfranchised, an election
like this, is worse than no election at all,” he says.
Ready or not
Iraq is not accustomed to elections. Since a monarchy was overthrown
in a 1958 coup, it’s seen little except tallies like the 100% vote
won by Saddam in 2002.
The Jan. 30 ballot, by contrast, could leave Iraqi voters dazzled by
choice: 230 slates representing more than 7,000 candidates for a
275-seat national assembly. It would name a new interim government to
replace the U.S.-backed one now in power. By mid-2005 the assembly
would draft a constitution. Election of a permanent government would
be held by year’s end.
>From an office inside the U.S.-military-protected Green Zone, Abdul
Hussein al-Hindawi, head of the Iraqi election commission, and a team
of United Nations advisers are overseeing the production of ballots,
the training of 150,000 poll workers and the management of a host of
details that must be in place by election day.
Asked how things look a month away, he interrupts: “Not a month – 35
days! Every day is needed.”
But, he insists, the election will happen. On his table, he assembles
four sheets of paper into a larger square to show how big the ballot
will be. Each slate will get a single line, with its name, the party
symbol and a commission-assigned number that also identifies it. Next
to each will be an empty box for the voter to mark his or her choice.
No machines and no hanging chads here. Counting the votes will be
done by hand and take two or three days, he predicts.
To deter people from voting twice, poll workers will stamp hands with
indelible ink.
Hindawi acknowledges that’s a risk to voters if anti-election
insurgents want to punish them. But for now that’s the plan.
To prevent counterfeit ballots, Hindawi says the 14 million sheets
are being printed with currency-style security paper. Hindawi says
he’s recruiting students, teachers, lawyers and other educated Iraqis
to work at the thousands of polling places.
Up to 1 million Iraqi exiles will be eligible to cast ballots in 15
countries including the USA.
Working as an election official is one of the highest-risk jobs in
the annals of bureaucracy.
In Baghdad last week, in one of the most brazen attacks of the
insurgency, election workers were dragged from their car and three
executed on a downtown street. Unable to find enough security for
election day, U.N. monitoring will largely be conducted from
neighboring Jordan.
The danger to poll workers and voters on election day could force the
government to set up precincts outside of neighborhoods where people
could safely vote.
The commission has brushed aside a suggestion by Allawi to spread the
election over days or weeks to allow for more concentrated use of
Iraq’s inadequate security forces.
Iraqis will vote, Hindawi predicts, and perhaps astonish the
doubters.
Already, he says, the election is changing Iraq: “All the people
speak of elections. Open any newspaper and you read pages about the
elections, even newspapers which are against the elections. The
people see it happening.”
“This is not something really strange” for the cradle of
civilization, he adds. Iraqi archaeologists “consider us the first
democracy in the world, even before the Greeks.” he says.
Legitimacy in the balance
Violent attacks by insurgents are one threat to a revival of Iraq’s
long-dormant democratic heritage. Another, potentially more
devastating, is a boycott by Sunnis, Iraq’s second-largest faction.
Sunnis are only about 20% of the country’s 25 million people, but
they controlled Iraq for more than 40 years, mostly through Saddam’s
now banned Baath Party. The United States and interim Iraqi
government managed to lure several other Sunni groups to enter
candidate slates.
But on Monday, the largest Sunni political party pulled out, arguing
that poor security in Sunni cities such as Fallujah and Ramadi make a
legitimate outcome impossible. “Delaying would make a better and more
comprehensive process,” said Muhsin Abdul Hamid, secretary of the
Iraqi Islamic Party. He joined other Sunni leaders in demanding a
six-month delay.
Bush has ruled that out, concerned that a delay would encourage the
insurgents.
Just hours before Hamid’s news conference, a car bomb exploded
outside the Baghdad residence of Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, the head of the
most prominent Shiite slate and a close associate of Sistani. Hakim
was not hurt, but 15 people were killed, including some of his
guards.
On Tuesday, insurgents killed at least 25 people, mostly Iraqi
police, in attacks across the Sunni Triangle, as a militant group
claimed to have executed eight Iraqi employees of a U.S. security
company.
Secretary of State Colin Powell has stressed the importance of having
Sunnis represented in a new Iraqi government.
Even Shiites, hungry for power after decades of oppression under
Saddam, say Iraq will fail without Sunnis in a power-sharing
government.
The Sunnis “must participate no matter what the results of the
election,” says Saad Jawad Qindeel, acting head of the political
bureau of Hakim’s party, the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution
in Iraq, or SCIRI. “Even if we get 70% of the seats of the national
assembly, we still believe that the transition government cannot be
made from one component” of Iraq.
Those words seem especially moderate given SCIRI’s history of
fighting Saddam. Still hanging in the entrance to the SCIRI office in
Baghdad is a small sign: “Every Baathist is a criminal until proven
otherwise.”
Optimism vs. history
Such views raise the chilling prospect of unrelenting conflict
erupting into civil war, something the CIA warned of in an analysis
that became public this year. It was based partly on the stated goals
of terrorists such as Osama bin Laden and Abu Musab al-Zarqawi,
Iraq’s most prominent al-Qaeda associate, and partly on history.
Monday, a man claiming to be bin Laden called for a boycott of the
elections in an audiotape broadcast. He also called Zarqawi, who has
claimed responsibility for kidnappings, beheadings and suicide
attacks, a true “soldier of God” and anointed him al-Qaeda’s leader
in Iraq.
For centuries, Iraq’s history of violence and oppression has pitted
one ethnic group against another. Saddam’s ruthless regime was only
the latest.
Sunnis and Shiites “have massacred and oppressed each other in Iraq
since the seventh century, taking time off to do the same for the
country’s Armenians, Assyrians, Chaldeans, Jews, Kurds and other
minorities,” writes Edwin Black, author of a history on Iraq. The
election “guarantees that the Shiite majority will once again control
the nation, settling old scores and disenfranchising everyone else,
and laying the groundwork for another civil war.”
The Bush administration has begun trying to tamp down hopes that the
election will end Iraq’s insurgency. “Elections are an event, and
democracy is a process,” says Bob Callahan, spokesman for the U.S.
Embassy here. A stable and democratic society will come, but “nobody
thinks it’s going to happen in a year or two.”
But Iraq’s new politics are not only a power play between Sunni
extremists and American idealists. The prospect of free elections has
energized niches in Iraqi society, represented by scores of virtually
unknown political groups that registered slates. They seek a voice,
if not power.
“This is our country, and we have to contribute in building and
establishing freedom and democracy,” says Yon’adam Kan’na, head of a
Christian coalition slate. “People are scared because of terrorists
and Saddam Hussein’s regime remains, but I will say that we have to
be confident that peace and stability will succeed.”
“The idea of an election is quite modern, and I love to see our
country’s politics the same as in civilized nations and no
dictatorship,” says Said Sara Ahmed, a university student who favors
U.S. ally Allawi as someone strong enough for the job.
When the official campaign season kicked off Dec. 15, Iraq’s
Communists, powerful before Saddam took over, held a rally at a
soccer stadium. In Iraq’s south, Hindawi says, there’s even some
Western-style campaigning with candidates meeting voters. In addition
to the national assembly, each Iraqi province has municipal elections
Jan. 30. Kurdistan, the semi-autonomous province in the north, also
elects its regional assembly.
In Baghdad, open campaigning is dangerous, but thousands of posters
are scattered across city walls. Most are simple, with maps of Iraq
and lists of candidates. There are pictures of peace doves, scales of
justice and other symbols of a better Iraq.
Perhaps because the concept of representative democracy is so new, or
because the situation is so dire, even major parties like SCIRI shy
away from U.S.-style pork-barrel promises. Instead they discuss
ideals such as justice, peace and religious rights.
Holding elected officials accountable to the people’s material needs
will come later, Qindeel says.
“Having elections, having a constitution, getting the people to
exercise their rights, all … are important steps toward providing
solutions to the daily problems they suffer,” from gas lines to power
outages to unemployment. “There are no magic solutions to these
problems, but it starts with having a representative government that
comes from the election boxes.”
Contributing: Sabah al-Anbaki and Charles Crain in Baghdad; wire
reports