San Luis Obispo Tribune
March 29 2009
Will Europe embrace President Obama like candidate Obama?
By STEVEN THOMMA – McClatchy Newspapers
They gave him their hearts when he visited last summer. Now, the
question hanging over Europe is how much more they’ll give Barack
Obama as he returns for the first time as president of the United
States.
Obama leaves on Tuesday on a whirlwind eight-day tour. He remains
enormously popular in Europe, and the throngs that greeted him last
summer as a candidate are likely to grow. With first lady Michelle
Obama along, Obama’s debut on the world stage as president already is
inspiring anticipation of the kind of rock-star reception that greeted
John and Jackie Kennedy on their first trip as first couple to Europe
in 1961.
Yet Obama also heads into his first overseas trip with grand goals –
looking to forge a coordinated global response to the Great Recession,
hoping Europe will send more of its sons and daughters to help in an
escalating war in Afghanistan, and seeking to restore international
cooperation that he thinks suffered in the Bush years.
That will be a tough sell. Publicly, European and world leaders will
embrace Obama. But privately, they likely will say no to some of his
requests, most notably sending combat troops to Afghanistan, or
simply avoid the subject.
"He remains a superstar in European public opinion," said Reginald
Dale, a scholar at the Center for Strategic and International Studies,
a centrist research organization. Dale noted that Europeans have even
more trust in Obama than Americans do, according to a recent poll by
the Financial Times newspaper.
"European leaders want to be seen next to Obama, preferably with
. . . his arms around their shoulders and a big smile, because he’s so
popular in Europe. And nobody’s going to try and raise awkward
subjects with him."
Perhaps, but those subjects will be unavoidable as Obama heads first
to the United Kingdom, then on to France, Germany, the Czech Republic
and Turkey.
White House aides said Saturday that Obama is eager, as he heads
overseas, to rescue the U.S. and world economy and press an
international approach to Afghanistan, but also to "re-energize" the
international alliances that have guided world affairs for more than
half a century.
He’ll do that, he said, by taking a more collaborative style, and less
of the "my-way-or-the-highway" approach critics say President George
W. Bush embodied.
"The president and America are going to listen in London as well as to
lead," said White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs.
That will help Obama to "continue leading and strengthening our
alliances, re-energizing our alliances," said Denis McDonough, the
Deputy National Security Advisor for Strategic Communications.
UNITED KINGDOM
His first stop will be at the G-20, a group of 19 major economic
powers, plus the European Union, meeting in London.
Obama has already been pushing them for more government spending to
stimulate the global economy, as he’s doing at home. Many European
countries, however, instead are emphasizing tougher regulation of the
financial system.
"Even the European Union itself is balking," said Nile Gardiner, a
scholar at the Heritage Foundation, a conservative research
organization. "I think we are going to see a significant transatlantic
divide emerging at the G-20 between the U.S. position of massive
stimulus spending and European opposition to that."
Prime Minister Mirek Topolanek of the Czech Republic, the current EU
president, this week ripped Obama’s free spending approach as a "road
to hell." But his own opposition party pushes for stimulus spending,
and last week passed a vote of no confidence in his government.
While in London, Obama also will have a chance to remedy his perceived
missteps when he hosted British Prime Minister Gordon Brown in
Washington. In one, Obama gave Brown a set of DVDs, ridiculed as a
cheap slight by the British press.
White House aides declined Saturday to say what Obama would have with
him when he meets Queen Elizabeth II.
FRANCE and GERMANY
Obama next will attend a meeting of the NATO alliance in Strasbourg,
France, and Baden-Baden, Germany.
Officially, the meeting will mark the 60th anniversary of the
alliance. Unofficially, the war in Afghanistan will dominate the
meeting as the U.S. asks for help.
"President Obama will probably not have much luck in obtaining
additional combat forces," said Stephen Flanagan, a scholar at the
Center for Strategic and International Studies. "There just isn’t the
willingness on the part of most of the European allies to do that
right now."
Americans already make up more than half of the international forces
in Afghanistan. Obama announced on Friday that the U.S. would send
another 4,000 troops to help train Afghan forces, atop the 17,500
additional combat troops he already committed. When all are present,
U.S. forces will total about 60,000 of the approximately 92,000 NATO
troops there.
"American expectations are being lowered, or Europeans are trying to
lower American expectations," Flanagan said. "There may be some modest
additions, but it’s more likely that European governments will be
offering trainers for both the Afghan national army and the Afghan
police."
CZECH REPUBLIC
In Prague, Obama will attend a meeting of the EU.
There, Obama will give what aides called a major speech on
proliferation, including not just the threats from nuclear weapons but
also cyber threats and energy security.
Another likely topic will be the U.S. commitment to deploy a missile
defense system in the Czech Republic, as the Bush administration
proposed.
Ostensibly aimed at protecting against missile launches from Iran, the
system also is seen as a defense against Russia – but Moscow sees it
as an insult and a threat.
"If Obama withdraws on missile defense, which he seems to be doing,
then he is going to leave the Czech and Polish governments out there
hanging in the wind," said Dale of the center. "They went to great
lengths to reach agreement on . . . basing those facilities there,
even though their public opinions were largely against it."
One possible result: remain vaguely committed to the missile defense
while continuing a review of the policy. The challenge: doing it in a
way that assures the Czechs and Poles they’re not being strung along
and convincing the world that the Obama administration isn’t caving to
pressure from Russia.
Obama will visit Ankara and Istanbul before turning homeward.
In Istanbul, Obama will hold a roundtable talk with students that will
use new media such as the Internet to interact with young people
across Europe and in Southwest Asia.
"We have a very good story to tell about this country and our
interests," said Michael Froman, the Deputy National Security Advisor
for International Economic Affairs.
Though this isn’t the site of Obama’s promised speech reaching out to
the Muslim world – that will come later in a still-unidentified Muslim
capital – Turkey is a Muslim country, and Obama’s talk likely will
strive to reach that audience.
"Obama will start with a great advantage when he gets to Turkey,
because his name is not George Bush. He was extremely unpopular in
Turkey, as well as in the Islamic world," said Bulent Aliriza, the
director of the Turkey Project at the center.
"There’s a sense of goodwill towards the U.S. and particularly towards
President Obama . . . the entire Islamic world will be watching the
speech he will be making at the Turkish Grand National Assembly in
Ankara."
Also, Obama will be pressed to speak out on whether Turkey committed
genocide against Armenians from 1915 to 1923. Armenians want the
recognition; Turkey maintains the dead were victims of war, not
genocide.
As a candidate, Obama promised the recognition as he appealed for
Armenian-American support. But as president, he needs Turkish support,
for the war in Afghanistan and other issues.
The Turkish government doesn’t expect Obama to risk a diplomatic
incident by using the word "genocide." After visiting with White House
officials recently, Ahmet Davutoglu, the top foreign policy adviser to
the Czech prime minister, said, "we don’t anticipate anything
negative."
WHAT’S THE G-20?
It’s 19 countries – Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China,
France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Russia, Saudi
Arabia, South Africa, South Korea, Turkey, Britain and the U.S. – plus
the EU.
How big is it?
It represents two thirds of the world’s population, and 90 percent of
the world’s total economy as measured by gross national product.
Who’s not represented?
Among the countries in other economic meetings but not in the G-20:
Belgium, Chile, Ivory Coast, Egypt, Malaysia, Morocco, the
Netherlands, Poland, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and
Thailand.
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