Author: Chalian Meline

The Russian president Putin met with Aliyev on Friday. There is nothing strange when Aliyev and Putin meet. Russia and Azerbaijan are declared strategic partners and a meeting of their presidents is not something strange. The question is what specific goals this meeting has, whether it is one in a series or an extraordinary meeting, that is an urgent need to meet has occurred. And who has had the urgent need? Putin and Aliyev may have different reasons to meet. From the point of view of Armenia, attention immediately goes on to the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict, the issue of Artsakh. And it seems, at least to many, that only this issue would bring Putin and Aliyev to a meeting. However, the vectors of the Russian-Azerbaijani partnership vary and it is possible that at least one Putin-Aliyev meeting is not intended to discuss the Artsakh issue. At the same time, it is beyond doubt that whatever the reason to meet, the issue of Artsakh will be mentioned in the discussions. So, a question or concern occurs what place it will have and what influence it will undergo. In this sense, the relationship between Russia and Azerbaijan is more complicated now than before April 2016. In April the sides had to respond silently that at the end of the day the purpose of strategic partnership was to let each other down. Azerbaijan became convinced that Moscow’s purpose was to achieve military presence in Artsakh, letting Azerbaijan take several positions or heights at best and Moscow clearly saw that Baku’s goal was to get the right to war through Eurasian promises and take as much as it can through a blitzkrieg. And this mutual unmasking was basically ensured by the Armenian army, resisting, perhaps unexpectedly for both Russia and Azerbaijan, and pushing back aggression though being much less armed than Baku armed with Russia’s help. However, despite the “masquerade” revealed mutually in April, Moscow and Baku cannot do without partnership, everyone has their reason but they end up into a mutual necessity. Simply the lack of mutual confidence has made it rather complicated to come to terms. Turkey could be helpful to Russia unintentionally. Or rather, Turkey’s complicated issues with the West which have almost led to breaking relations with Germany. What developments will follow, will there be an escalation or a standstill? Time will show. However, one thing is clear that Turkey has serious issues with the West, which is also an issue for Azerbaijan. What should Baku do as it has to account to the West for its “big brother”? The situation is complicated for Aliyev indeed – he has to support Turkey morally and politically. This means being rejected by the West. Meanwhile, Aliyev is already half-rejected by the West. Not to support Turkey means to betray the elder brother. At the same time, Turkey will ask support for support. The situation is complicated indeed, and Aliyev may increasingly need Putin’s help who seems to be a relatively neutral option between the West and Turkey. Apparently with this in mind, the Azerbaijani president asked for a meeting with Putin in Sochi or Putin seized the moment and invited Aliyev. The question is how and in what direction Russia will guide Aliyev. Technically, Turkey is “handing” Aliyev to Putin for custody. It’s not clear if he expects to get him back or not.