Bringing the threat of war to Russia’s borders is having wide-ranging
repercussions
By Eric Walberg
Online Journal Contributing Writer
May 18, 2009, 00:19
As Russian troops marched to celebrate the victory over Nazi Germany 8
May, NATO troops — 1,300 of them from 10 member countries and six
`partners’ — were beginning their month-long Cooperative
Longbow/Lancer war `games’ on Russia’s southern border.
In deference to Moscow, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Moldova and Serbia
decided not to participate in the NATO exercises, preferring to send
their diplomats to Red Square in homage to the untold Russian
sacrifice in pursuit of world peace.
According to Russian MP Sergei Abeltsev, the NATO decision to hold the
drills in Georgia during the WWII Victory Day celebrations was a
`total revision of the history of the Great Patriotic War.’
The games were greeted by Georgian troops with a coup attempt against
their beleaguered president, Mikheil Saakashvili, though there is
speculation that this was something dreamed up by the Georgian
president himself (he has done stranger things, like declaring war on
Russia). This latest bizarre twist, the argument goes, gives him
ammunition in his battle with protesters — they have been demanding
his resignation for over a month and vow to keep protesting unyil he’s
gone. Lucky for Saak, riot police are still loyal to him and broke up
an anti-NATO rally by thousands converging on parliament on the eve of
the games.
According to Russian Ambassador to NATO Dmitri Rogozin, Saakashvili
`has long been aiming to bring Georgia’s domestic conflict to the
international level. It’s for this reason that he shot down our
military — to draw us into the August war. It’s for this reason that
he wanted American marines to come to Georgia, to draw Americans into
that war. This man is dangerous for the world.’
In support of Saakashvili, the US darling, Democratic Senator John
Kerry and Republican Congressman David Dreier (note the bipartisan
unity) are calling for a free trade
eorgia.
NATO is busy as a bee these days. Apart from its centrepiece,
Afghanistan, where deaths of both Afghans and occupiers are increasing
daily, and practising for God-knows-what in Georgia, it was recently
flexing its naval muscle in neighbouring Turkey, where delegates from
27 countries just wrapped up NATO’s annual Maritime Commanders Meeting
(MARCOMET 2009). Its theme this year was `The Future Security
Environment — Implications for Navies’ and was focused on terrorism,
piracy and conflicts deriving from energy and resources issues. No
doubt it will be deploying forces on the Horn of Africa soon, pursuing
those pesky pirates.
Prague is also a hive of activity these days. It hosted a meeting of
the Eastern Partnership (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia,
Ukraine and Moldova ) 7 May, followed by a summit dubbed `Southern
Corridor — New Silk Road of European and Central Asian countries,’
seeking a non-Russian route for gas imports from Central Asia. The
summit participants included Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan,
Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Egypt, Iraq and Turkey. The Czech EU
official said that after years of wavering, Europe had no time to lose
in securing alternatives to Russian gas.
If the intent in all this is to make Russia angry, it is working. On
the first day of the Georgian military exercise, Russia expelled two
NATO envoys. Rogozin stated that his country would not attend a NATO
military meeting planned for this week. Russian lawmaker Sergei
Abeltsev has floated the idea of a response to the NATO move that
would entail Cuba and Venezuela taking part in `large-scale drills’ in
the Caribbean Sea on 2 July. Nicaragua intends to buy Russian aircraft
and helicopters for its armed forces, and will be sure to join in.
The battleground between East and West these days thus includes not
only Georgia, but the Czech Republic, Poland and the Baltics. Not only
is US President Barack Obama continuing Bush’s policy of provoking
Russia in Georgia, but he made no indication in his first 100 days
Czech Republic and Poland. Fortunately, grassroots Czech opposition to
the proposed base resulted in the defeat of the conservative
government and it looks like the Czech base will not go ahead. Strong
opposition in Poland has so far not managed to make a similar
political inroad.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov accused the US of using the
Iran issue as a pretext to set up its missile shield in Russia’s
backyard. `The way it is designed has nothing to do with Iran’s
nuclear programme. It is aimed at Russian strategic forces, deployed
in the European part of the Russian Federation,’ Lavrov told
Euronews. `We are being very frank about this with our American
colleagues and hope that our arguments are heard. Iran’s nuclear
programme is a separate issue. We approach it according to a key
principal — preventing the spread of weapons of mass destruction.’
As if the Czech government’s anti-Russian conferences and the war
games aren’t enough, the Czech air force is now `protecting’ the
airspace of the three Baltic NATO members, the first time that the
Czech military’s tactical air force has been deployed in a foreign
operation since the end of WWII. The Czech aircraft will be ready to
take action in case of a military threat to the Baltic countries and
to provide them with help.
But what `threat’ is there in the Baltics, other than one invented by
trigger-happy NATO planners playing yet more war `games’ with Russia ?
This scheming has not gone unnoticed by Moscow. `We are not afraid of
anything, including the prospect of a new Cold War, but we don’t want
one,’ Russian President Dmitri Medvedev said recently. In The Grand
Chessboard (1997) Zbigniew Brzezinski predicted that the only
countries Russia could convince to join a defence pact might be
Belarus and Tajikistan. But the Collective Security Treaty
Organization (CSTO) founded in 2002 in reaction to NATO expansion
eastward now includes not only Belarus and Tajikistan, but Kazakhstan,
Kyrgyzstan and Armenia.
It, along with
he Eurasian Economic Community (EurAsEC), the Russia-Belarus Union
State and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) are natural
developments by countries concerned about what the US and NATO are
really up to. Russian General Leonid Ivashov, vice president of the
Academy of Geopolitical Science, says there is a need `to neutralise
the spread of NATO’s influence not only to Central Asia but also to
East and Southeast Asia,’ adding that this `won’t be of an aggressive
or offensive nature; it will be a deterrent.’
Relations with the SCO are developing, and just a few months ago, it
was reported that the CSTO will have its own Joint Rapid Reaction
Force which could be used to protect its members from military
aggression, defend critical infrastructure and fight terrorism and
organised crime. Russia and Kazakhstan are the key movers in the CSTO
and managed to obtain a 25 percent growth in this year’s budget.
There are problems. First, the standoff between Armenia and
Azerbaijan, with the latter inching towards NATO membership in
reaction to Russian support for the former. And then there’s
Uzbekistan. President Islam Karimov was initially very pro-US and
anti-Russian, but after being spurned by the West over the brutal
suppression of demonstrations in 2005, he quickly made up with Russia
and even joined the CSTO in 2006. However, human rights have never
interfered with US strategic thinking in the past, and there are signs
that Karimov is flirting with the West once again. He has also signed
a military cooperation agreement with Azerbaijan, and is withdrawing
from EurAsEC, adding to the confusion.
What Moscow would really like is for Ukraine to join the CSTO. And why
not? If such pacts are truly defensive, then this makes perfect
sense. What conceivable role does NATO play so far from the Atlantic,
except as a forward base for the US? Ukraine in the CSTO would give it
clout where it counts — with its big and vital neighbour. Ukraine in
NATO can only be a serious cause of tension with Russia. As Egy
‘
While things look grim these days from Moscow, the EU/NATO
machinations are far from yielding results. Euro `partners’ Armenia
and Azerbaijan are in a state of war; Belarus and Moldova leaders have
no illusions about Euro intentions and did not attend the EP fest in
Prague, despite the 600 million euros being thrown around. And signs
of reaction to NATO’s nosiness are setting in. In a poll by the US
government-funded International Republican Institute (IRI) only 63
percent of Georgian respondents back NATO accession, down from the 87
percent the IRI recorded last September. Keep in mind the bias of an
organisation like the IRI and imagine likely statistics if such a poll
were carried out by a real NGO like, say, the Campaign for Nuclear
Disarmament or StopNATO. What is telling in the IRI poll is the
massive shift away from NATO membership in the past six months.
And then there’s Ukraine. The district council of its second largest
city, Kharkov, has just called for a ban on all NATO-related
organisations and activities pending a nationwide referendum on Kiev’s
membership in the alliance. A statement circulated by the council last
week denounced any violations of Ukraine’s bloc-free status. The
protest by the deputies followed the opening in April this year of a
Euro-Atlantic cooperation (read: NATO) centre at Economics and Law
University in Kharkov .
Obama has yet to make any of the hard choices he faces. He caved in to
the bankers, and his health plan is being vetted by the health
insurance industry to prevent the single-payer system, by far the
cheapest and most comprehensive. He appears to be letting the Bush
torturers off the hook and continuing their wars in Iraq and
Afghanistan. But he can’t finesse Russia so easily. Russia will not
cooperate on Afghanistan or arms treaties if he continues the foolish
and dangerous meddling in Eastern Europe under the pretense of
supporting `democracy and freedom.’ The current games can only be
interpreted by Moscow as a replay — hopefully farcical — of
e to keep the enemy at bay.Eric Walberg writes for Al-Ahram
Weekly. You can reach him at geocities.com/walberg2002.