Author: Chalian Meline

Do Armenia and Azerbaijan move to peace or war?

Chalian Meline
 Dr. Benyamin Poghosyan Opinion 0

Armenian PM Nikol Pashinyan, European Council President Charles Michel and Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev in Brussels (RA Government, April 6)

In recent months, some positive momentum was registered in Armenia-Azerbaijan talks. The sides established national commissions on border delimitation and demarcation, and after a six-month break, the trilateral Armenia-Russia-Azerbaijan commission on restoration of communication resumed its work. According to Russian sources, later confirmed by the Armenian deputy prime minister, the sides achieved significant progress in the negotiations, almost reaching an agreement on the route of the highway, which will connect Azerbaijan with Nakhichevan via the Syunik region of Armenia, as well as on modalities of border and customs control. The agreement to open the Armenia-Turkey land border for the crossing of third country citizens and launch direct air cargo trade between the two countries, achieved during the July 1 meeting of Armenia and Turkey representatives, seemed to add a more positive environment in the South Caucasus geopolitics.

In the light of these developments, some may question the title of this paper, arguing that Armenia and Azerbaijan are moving toward peace, and the possibility of a new war is quite remote and improbable. However, the situation is not as rosy as it may seem. The core reason for the conflict, the final status of Nagorno Karabakh, continues to remain unresolved. In this context, the situation is now worse than before the 2020 Karabakh war. During the 26 years of negotiations separating the first and the second Karabakh wars under the auspices of the OSCE Minsk Group, Armenia and Azerbaijan agreed that there was Nagorno Karabakh which should have status. The contradiction was about the nature of that status. Azerbaijan expressed readiness to provide the highest possible level of autonomy within Azerbaijan. At the same time, Armenia and authorities of the Nagorno Karabakh Republic rejected any possibility of Karabakh being under Azerbaijani control, claiming that the only solution was the recognition of Nagorno Karabakh’s independence by Azerbaijan. 

We face a different reality after the 2020 Artsakh War. Azerbaijan claims that there is no Nagorno Karabakh anymore; therefore, Azerbaijan will not discuss the status of a non-existent entity with anyone, be it Armenia, Russia or the OSCE Minsk Group. The Armenian government claims that Nagorno Karabakh exists, and the rights of Nagorno Karabakh Armenians, as well as the final status of the region which should derive from those rights, should be negotiated within the OSCE Minsk Group. Armenian authorities hinted that theoretically, they might agree to the broad autonomy for Nagorno Karabakh within Azerbaijan under solid international guarantees, including the permanent deployment of the peacekeeping mission. The authorities of Nagorno Karabakh Republic state that any status within Azerbaijan is unacceptable for them, as it cannot guarantee the rights of Armenians and will force Armenians to leave their homeland. 

Russia and the West agree that Nagorno Karabakh exists and that its status should be decided, but this is the only area where they have overlapping views. From an American and European perspective, the only realistic way to move forward is to agree on some autonomy for Nagorno Karabakh within Azerbaijan, with guarantees that Armenians will continue to live there. Meanwhile, the agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan on the status of Nagorno Karabakh will pave the way for Azerbaijan, the EU and the US to demand the withdrawal of Russian peacekeepers from Nagorno Karabakh after November 2025. After the complete rupture of Russia-West relations due to the war in Ukraine, the withdrawal of Russian peacekeepers from Nagorno Karabakh is part of the renewed US strategy to contain Russia and weaken Russian positions in the post-Soviet world. 

Meanwhile, Russia calls on Armenia and Azerbaijan to concentrate on the issues of restoration of communications and border delimitation and demarcation and postpone the decision on the future status of Nagorno Karabakh, as no compromise is realistic now. No agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan on Nagorno Karabakh will ensure that Russian peacekeepers will remain in Nagorno Karabakh, as even the West understands that in those circumstances, the withdrawal of the Russian peacekeepers will open the way for ethnic cleansing. 

There is no clarity about the future of the OSCE Minsk Group. After the start of the war in Ukraine, Russia claimed that the US and France decided not to cooperate with Russia in this format, thus effectively killing it. During her recent visit to Yerevan, the US Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Karen Donfried stated that despite the war in Ukraine, the US was ready to work with Russia within the OSCE Minsk Group. However, the Minsk Group co-chairs issued their last joint statement in December 2021. Regardless of the reasons, the co-chairs have ceased their activities since then.

Meanwhile, Azerbaijani authorities, including President Aliyev, claim that if Armenia does not drop its demands to discuss the future status of Nagorno Karabakh, then Azerbaijan will demand autonomy for Azerbaijanis in the Syunik region of Armenia. As there is no Azerbaijani population in Syunik, this statement is an indirect threat to invade Syunik. The region is the only land area separating Azerbaijan from Nakhichevan. After the 2020 Karabakh war, Azerbaijani authorities increased their rhetoric about Syunik being a historical Azerbaijani land, which artificially divided the Turkic world, spanning from Istanbul to the Kazakhstan-China border. 

Thus, despite the recent positive developments on the Armenia-Turkey track and the issues related to the restoration of communications, the core issue of the conflict continues to divide Armenia and Azerbaijan. As any quick compromise on the status of Nagorno Karabakh is unlikely, the international community should focus on preventing a new war rather than changing the status quo that emerged after the 2020 Karabakh war. In this context, confidence-building measures may play a vital role, and all sides should welcome the recent EU initiatives in this direction.      

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Dr. Benyamin Poghosyan is the founder and chairman of the Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies. He was the former vice president for research – head of the Institute for National Strategic Studies at the National Defense Research University in Armenia. In March 2009, he joined the Institute for National Strategic Studies as a research Fellow and was appointed as INSS Deputy Director for research in November 2010. Dr. Poghosyan has prepared and managed the elaboration of more than 100 policy papers which were presented to the political-military leadership of Armenia, including the president, the prime minister and the Minister of Foreign Affairs. Dr. Poghosyan has participated in more than 50 international conferences and workshops on regional and international security dynamics. His research focuses on the geopolitics of the South Caucasus and the Middle East, US – Russian relations and their implications for the region, as well as the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative. He is the author of more than 200 academic papers and articles in different leading Armenian and international journals. In 2013, Dr. Poghosyan was a Distinguished Research Fellow at the US National Defense University College of International Security Affairs. He is a graduate from the US State Department Study of the US Institutes for Scholars 2012 Program on US National Security Policy Making. He holds a PhD in history and is a graduate from the 2006 Tavitian Program on International Relations at Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy.


Russian analyst: 3+3 is "our answer to the West"

Chalian Meline
ARMINFO
Armenia –
David Stepanyan

ArmInfo. Against the background of geopolitical upheavals, which continue to shake international relations, the post-Soviet area and the whole world naturally  gradually go on the path of geopolitical transformations towards the  establishment of a completely new world order. Alexey Malashenko,  Chief Researcher at the Institute of World Economy and International  Relations (IMEMO) of the Russian Academy of Sciences expressed a  similar opinion to ArmInfo.

“Against the background of unfulfilled expectations of Russia’s  impending defeat in Ukraine, respectively, the defeat of the latter  in all possible directions in the future, the West, in parallel with  the hostilities in Ukraine itself, continues diplomatic work in other  adjacent regions.

And we see attempts to solve problems, including in the South  Caucasus. I see the intensification of talks about the 3+3 format as  a response to these attempts. Thus, Moscow demonstrates the  inviolability of its own geopolitical positions in the South  Caucasus,” he said.

In other words, according to the orientalist, having problems with  the West, Russia, Turkey and Iran are cooperating with each other in  the same Middle East. And today they are striving to extend this  cooperation to the South Caucasus. Including with the aim of  counteracting the EU and the US attempts to activate in the region.  And there is a very certain consensus between the Russian Federation,  Turkey and Iran in the same definition of ways to solve regional  problems.  

“Of course, there are problems along this path. First of all, in the  form of cooperation between the countries of the region themselves:  Armenia, Georgia and Azerbaijan with the West. And taking into  account the fact that the goal of 3 + 3 is to eliminate this  cooperation, the Russian Federation, Turkey and Iran have a lot of  work to do, so much depends on these countries, for example, the same  Armenia will not actively seek contacts with the West if Turkey does  not put pressure on it. In this sense, the guarantee of strengthening  this format as a viable one largely depends on the ability of its  initiators to resolve issues in the region solely through diplomacy,”  Malashenko summed up. 

Sports: U-20 [Women’s] European Championship: Armenia suffers loss… (Israel 102 : 40 Armenia)

Chalian Meline
NEWS.am
Armenia –

Armenian U-20 women’s team met the Israeli team in Skopje in the second round of the European Championships (Division B).

The Armenian team was defeated 40-102 (3-19, 19-35, 9-29, 9-19).

In the first round, the Armenian team defeated the Georgian team 49-46.

The teams, taken the first two places in the group, will pass to the quarterfinals.

Armenian News note: You can watch the full game at 

Music: Armenian symphony orchestra to hold charity concert in support of Syunik, Artsakh children

Chalian Meline
Panorama
Armenia – July 9 2022

CULTURE 14:14 09/07/2022 ARMENIA

The State Symphony Orchestra of Armenia will be holding a classical music festival after celebrated Polish composer Krzysztof Penderecki, who passed away in 2020 at the age of 86.

Three concerts are planned to be held on the sidelines of the Penderecki Contemporary Classics’ Festival scheduled for July 9-19.

The July 9 concert program features pieces by Estonian composer Arvo Pärt and Finnish composers Kaija Saariaho and Sebastian Fagerlund.

The second concert entirely featuring Krzysztof Penderecki’s works will be held at Aram Khachaturian Concert Hall on July 16, while the third concert titled “Prayers” is set for July 19.

The closing concert features two premieres, including Symphony No. 9 by Valentin Silvestrov and Passacaglia by Karl Jenkins. The concert program also includes Confessing With Faith for baritone, choir, and orchestra by Tigran Mansurian.

This is a charity concert and all proceeds from it will be donated to World Vision Armenia to support children of border settlements in Syunik Province, including displaced children of Artsakh.

“Your participation will make it possible to provide school supplies to at least 100 children of border settlements in Syunik Province and children displaced from Artsakh, who live in dire conditions,” organizers said. 

Freedom House welcomes Armenia’s decriminalization of "grave insults"

Chalian Meline
PanARMENIAN
Armenia – July 8 2022
July 8, 2022 – 15:54 AMT

PanARMENIAN.Net – Freedom House has welcomed the decriminalization of “grave insults” in Armenia and the government’s commitment to broad consultation on media legislation reflected in a Memorandum of Cooperation signed between the Armenian Government and CSOs.

However, the organization urged the country’s Prime Minister to take the concerns of the media seriously and leverage direct communication channels including through open and transparent press-conferences to ensure a healthy functioning democracy.

“The Armenian authorities should support the independent media and civil society by maintaining an active dialogue with them and the people to counteract disinformation that poses threat to Armenian democracy around crucial topics for the country,” Freedom House said Thursday, July 8.

Justice Minister Karen Andreasyan said on June 11 Armenia had decided against criminalizing “serious insults” as suggested by a government-backed bill. Andreasyan said those who practice the “unacceptable behavior” will be fined in the amount of up to AMD 3 million (a little over $7000) instead.

Armenia says little progress in negotiations with Turkey

Chalian Meline
July 1 2022

  • Jul 01 2022 11:33 Gmt+3
  • Last Updated On: Jul 01 2022 11:38 Gmt+3

Armenia sees little progress in rapprochement talks with Turkey, said Ruben Rubinyan, the country’s special representative for the normalisation process, Armenian newspaper Asbarez reported.

“Armenia has the political will, and the success of this process depends on whether Turkey has the political will. As you can see, up to this point there has not been much progress,” Rubinyan told reporters at the Armenian Parliament on Thursday. He also serves as the deputy speaker of the assembly.

“Since the beginning of the process, Armenia has been very constructive,” Rubinyan said, according to the newspaper, which is based in the United States.

Turkish and Armenian envoys have held three rounds of exploratory talks since January aimed at normalising diplomatic relations, frozen for almost three decades. Both countries began the talks without preconditions, though Turkey has frequently called on Armenia to open a trade corridor through territory it controls to Azerbaijan to allow the passage of Turkish and Azerbaijani goods.

Rubinyan said there was no specific document on the table, Asbarez said.

Ties between the two countries have been suspended since early 1990’s due to Armenia’s conflict with Azerbaijan over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region, which the two countries last fought over in late 2020. The clashes lasted six weeks and Armenia handed back territories in Nagorno-Karabakh to Azerbaijan as part of a truce agreement signed in November 2020. Turkey sided with Azerbaijan in the conflict. Turkey closed its border with Armenia in 1993.

“The main thing in the process is political will, if there is a will, the rest is easy to solve,” Rubinyan said.

Rubinyan and Serdar Kılıç, Turkey’s special envoy for the talks, were scheduled to meet on Friday in Vienna, Asbarez said.

German Federal Minister for Economic Cooperation visits Armenian Genocide Memorial in Yerevan

Chalian Meline

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 12:23, 1 July 2022

YEREVAN, JULY 1, ARMENPRESS. German Federal Minister for Economic Cooperation and Development Svenja Schulze and her delegation visited today the Armenian Genocide Memorial in Yerevan.

The German delegation was accompanied by Armenian Deputy Minister of Economy Armen Arzumanyan, German Ambassador to Armenia Victor Richter and Armenian Ambassador to Germany Viktor Yengibaryan.

Deputy Director of the Museum-Institute Edita Gzoyan welcomed the guests and introduced them on the history of the creation of the Memorial.

She also introduced the history of three cross-stones located in the territory of the Memorial, which are dedicated to the memory of Armenians killed during the ethnic cleansings carried out against the Armenian population in Azerbaijan in the end of the past century.

The German Minister laid a wreath at the Memorial and the delegation members laid flowers at the Eternal Flame, by paying a tribute to the memory of the victims with a moment of silence.

UK commits further £500,000 to landmine disposal in Armenia and Azerbaijan

Chalian Meline

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 17:12,

YEREVAN, JUNE 30, ARMENPRESS. The UK Government is providing a further £500,000 to the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) to support land mine clearance in Armenia and Azerbaijan, the UK government said in a press release.

New funding will provide vital training and expert advice to make the area safe, prevent injuries and save lives.

“This UK contribution will harness the UN’s expertise, reduce the risks to civilian life in both Armenia and Azerbaijan, and allow people to rebuild their lives”, Minister for Europe and North America, James Cleverly said, adding that “UK urges Armenia and Azerbaijan to sign the UN conventions that seek to eliminate the use of anti-personnel landmines and cluster munitions”. 

“We encourage the authorities to ensure the UN and other humanitarian agencies are able to contribute fully to supporting peace and development across all parts of the region”, James Cleverly said.

The latest contribution brings total UK funding for demining to over £1 million since the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict in 2020.

Karabakh President: We will continue fight for Aghavno village

Chalian Meline
NEWS.am
Armenia –
14:58, 30.06.2022

Stepanakert has given its consent to the alternative route connecting Armenia to Artsakh. Artsakh (Nagorno-Karabakh) President Arayik Harutyunyan stated this in the Artsakh National Assembly, and noted that there were several options, but this one was chosen.

Referring to the concerns that in case of launching that route, Berdzor (Lachin) town and Aghavno village—where hundreds of Armenians live—will pass under Azerbaijan, Harutyunyan said. “Negotiations are underway now, we will see what opportunities there are. As far as I know, the residents of Berdzor town and Sus [village] have received their compensation under our social programs. Regardless of everything, we need to bypass Berdzor, and I consider the chance for our compatriots to live in Berdzor settlement in the future to be very small. As for Aghavno, we will continue our negotiations, our struggle.”

Arayik Harutyunyan noted that they had had several proposals related to that route—and both from Azerbaijan and Russia.

“All the proposals were rejected. The proposed highway has been discussed several times at the [Artsakh] Security Council, which was attended by all the political forces present in the [Artsakh] National Assembly. We have chosen, in our opinion, the best option. There are secrets that I do not want to voice here. Why did we choose that option? Based on our future security concern.

After finishing the road, we will have the opportunity to say our opinion. Does it qualitatively correspond to the conditions we want? Will it be safe? And, in my opinion, it will be much safer,” the Artsakh President said.

As for Armenians leaving those settlements, he stated that this matter was not discussed today.

“It is mainly about Aghavno settlement. That issue has not been discussed yet, we are negotiating. It is not about Berdzor, as according to the corresponding point of the [trilateral] statement [of November 9, 2020], we are obligated to leave [Berdzor]. [But] we have things to do ion connection with Aghavno, the negotiations in that regard are continuing, we have not told anyone to ‘get out of Berdzor,'” the Artsakh President said.

Armenia appellate court considering appeal against PM Pashinyan

Chalian Meline
NEWS.am
Armenia –
13:03, 27.06.2022

The Court of Appeal of Armenia is considering Monday the appeal of lawyer Hakob Martirosyan and opposition MP Artsvik Minasyan of the decision of the Court of General Jurisdiction of Yerevan not to open a criminal case against Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan.

In June 2021, Martirosyan and Minasyan had submitted a report on a crime, in particular, demanding that a criminal case be filed against Pashinyan—and under the Criminal Code article on “high treason” in connection with the Artsakh (Nagorno-Karabakh) war in the fall of 2020. 

Sessions in this court case are regularly rescheduled for various reasons. This had angered the families of the Armenian soldiers who had fallen in the aforesaid war, and therefore after the adjournment of the hearing on May 17, they had closed off the street adjacent to the Court of Appeal, and demanded that their appeal be considered objectively and that a proper procedure be given to it.