SAVING GEORGIA
by Ariel Cohen
Heritage.org
August 12, 2008
DC
Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has announced that Moscow is putting
on hold hostilities in Georgia, apparently due to the pleas from the
U.S. and Europe to cease aggression against Georgia. Many questions
remain open, including:
Signature and stability of the cease-fire; The timing of the Russian
withdrawal from sovereign Georgian territory; Recognition of full
Georgian sovereignty and territorial integrity; and Terminating
attempts by Moscow to remove Georgian leadership by force.
The threats to Georgia’s political survival and to Southern Caucasus
states’ independence have not disappeared, and Russia’s massive use
of force against its small neighbor remains appalling and deeply
troubling.
As the Olympic Games opened Friday, August 8, the tragic and
ominous conflict between Georgia and Russia erupted as well. Moscow
responded with overwhelming force to the Georgian fire on Tskhinvali,
capital of South Ossetia. Prime Minister Vladimir Putin flew from
the Beijing Olympics to Vladikavkaz, taking control of the military
operations. Putin sidelined his successor, Dmitry Medvedev, thereby
leaving no doubt as to who is in charge.
The 58th Russian Army of the North Caucasus Military District
rolled into South Ossetia, reinforced by the 76th Airborne "Pskov"
Division. The Black Sea Fleet blockaded Georgian coast and shelled
the strategic port of Poti. Cossacks from the neighboring Russian
territories moved in to combat the Georgians as well.
Following the third day of heavy fighting, and after rejecting the
Georgian cease-fire offer, Russia has struck far beyond contested
South Ossetia, opening up a second front in Abkhazia. Pushing deep
into Georgia, the Russian Army has seized military bases and several
towns including Senaki and Zugdidi, as well as the key Georgian
city of Gori, the birthplace of the Soviet tyrant Joseph Stalin. By
taking Gori and the east-west highway passing through the town, the
Russians have effectively cut the country in half, severing its main
transportation artery.
Russian forces have also bombed the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, the
only avenue for exporting Central Asian energy, which is independent of
Russian control. Throwing aside any pretense of "stopping a genocide,"
the Russian troops pushed forward and, on Monday evening, were 20
kilometers away from the Georgian capital Tbilisi. There is a good
chance that these troops will advance on Tbilisi in the next 24 hours.
Russia’s goals for the war with Georgia are far-reaching and include:
Expulsion of Georgian troops and termination of Georgian sovereignty in
South Ossetia and Abkhazia; "Regime change" by bringing down President
Mikheil Saakashvili and installing a more pro-Russian leadership in
Tbilisi; Preventing Georgia from joining NATO and sending a strong
message to Ukraine that its insistence on NATO membership may lead to
war and/or its dismemberment; Shifting control of the Caucasus, and
especially over strategic energy pipelines, by controlling Georgia;
and Recreating a 19th-century-style sphere of influence in the former
Soviet Union, by the use of force if necessary.
Rebuilding the Russian Empire: The Challenge to Europe’s Status Quo
Russian relations with Georgia were the worst among the post-Soviet
states. In addition to fanning the flames of separatism in South
Ossetia since 1990, Russia militarily supported separatists in Abkhazia
(1992-93), which is also a part of Georgian territory. Russia also
had a cantankerous relationship with then-Georgian President Eduard
Shevardnadze, the former Soviet foreign minister, whom hardliners
in Moscow blamed for the Soviet withdrawal from Central and Eastern
Europe. In the 1990s, there were two assassination attempts against
Shevardnadze, and elements of the Russian state, such as secret
services or military intelligence, came under suspicion both times.
Russia has long prepared its aggression against Georgia’s pro-Western
President Mikheil Saakashvili, in order to undermine his rule and
prevent Georgia from joining NATO. Despite claims about oppressed
minority status, the separatist South Ossetian leadership is mostly
ethnic Russians, many of whom served in the KGB, the Soviet secret
police, the Russian military, or the Soviet communist party.
In recent years, Moscow granted the majority of Abkhazs and South
Ossetians Russian citizenship and moved to establish close economic
and bureaucratic ties with the two separatist republics, effectively
enacting a creeping annexation of both territories.
The use of Russian citizenship to create a "protected" population
residing in a neighboring state to undermine its sovereignty is a
slippery slope that is now leading to a redrawing of the former Soviet
borders. Brave voices asserted that Russia lost the moral right for
peacekeeping in Abkhazia and South Ossetia when, circumventing the
leadership of sovereign Georgia, it
became close friends with the de facto organs of power of these
self-declared entities. Now, casting aside any decency, bringing
airborne units into Georgia, bombing territory that isn’t even part of
the former South Ossetian Autonomous Republic, Russia … has become
a party to an armed conflict.
No valiant Western voice issued this statement. As has so frequently
been the case throughout history, the above-mentioned statement was
made by a pitifully small but morally righteous group of Russian
human rights activists, led by Lev Ponomarev, Sergei Kovalyov, and
Yelena Bonner (Andrey Sakharov’s widow). The group proceeded to call
for Russia to be expelled from the Group of Eight (G-8), and for the
United Nations, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe
(OSCE), and the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE)
to impose sanctions on Russia.
Chilling Language, Strategic Actions
Aggression against Georgia also sends a strong signal to
Ukraine and Europe. Russia is playing a chess game of offense and
intimidation. Former president and current Prime Minister Vladimir
Putin spoke last spring about Russia "dismembering" Ukraine, another
NATO candidate, and detaching the Crimea, a peninsula that was
transferred from Russia to Ukraine in 1954 when both were integral
parts of the Soviet Union.
Today, up to 50 percent of Ukrainian citizens speak Russian as
their first language, and ethnic Russians comprise approximately
one-fifth of Ukraine’s population. With encouragement from Moscow,
these people may be induced to follow South Ossetia and Abkhazia to
Mother Russia’s bosom. Yet Ukraine’s pro-Western leaders, such as
President Victor Yushchenko and Prime Minister Yulia Timoshenko,
have expressed a desire to join NATO, while pro-Moscow Ukrainian
Party of Regions effectively opposes membership. NATO opponents in
Ukraine are greatly encouraged by Russia’s action against Georgia.
Beyond this, Russia is demonstrating that it can sabotage American and
European Union (EU) declarations about integrating Commonwealth of
Independent States members into Western structures such as NATO. By
attempting to accomplish regime change in Georgia, Moscow is also
trying to gain control of the energy and transportation corridor
which connects Central Asia and Azerbaijan with the Black Sea and
ocean routes overseas–for oil, gas and other commodities.
A pro-Russian regime in Georgia will also bring the strategic
Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline and the Baku-Erzurum (Turkey) gas
pipeline under Moscow’s control. Such a development would undermine
any options of pro-Western orientation for Azerbaijan and Armenia,
along with any chances of resolving their conflict based on diplomacy
and Western-style cooperation.
The West’s Hour of Truth
The United States and its European allies must take all available
diplomatic measures to stop Russian aggression. To uphold the
international order, to repel aggression, and to advance our national
interests and those of the West at large, the U.S. should:
Send Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice to Europe to coordinate
support for condemning Russian aggression in Georgia among our
allies. The U.S. and Europe should lead the world in demanding that
Russia withdraw all its troops from the territory of Georgia and
recognize Georgia’s territorial integrity; Convey to Russia that its
invasion of Georgia has forfeited its membership in the G-8 and may
derail its aspirations to join the World Trade Organization and to host
the 2014 Winter Olympics in Sochi, only 200 kilometers from Georgia;
Push for great powers to speak out, including Germany, France, India,
Brazil, Japan, Korea, Turkey, and possibly China. This support would
"globalize" the condemnation; Continue pressure within the United
Nations Security Council and the General Assembly to achieve a
resolution that will voice full and unequivocal support for Georgian
territorial integrity, including Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and for
Russian troop withdrawal; Send international observers to Georgia
from OSCE, the EU and the United Nations in order to expand mediation
efforts to withdraw Russian forces; Begin talks at a neutral forum
such as the OSCE to finally settle the South Ossetian matter as well
as future Abkhazian problems. This can be done by granting these
territories full autonomy within the Georgian state, as Tbilisi
has repeatedly suggested; Reiterate NATO’s position on Ukraine,
which holds that the country will become a member of NATO through the
extension of a Membership Action Plan and that the member states look
forward to assessing Ukraine’s progress at the December 2008 meeting;
Announce the deployment of amphibious ships into the Black Sea as a
non-combatant Evacuation Operations, which will be coordinated with
all Black Sea littoral states; and Offer humanitarian assistance to
Georgia, such as aiding the wounded and refugees, and evacuating the
friends of the U.S. if necessary.
Beyond this, the United States, its allies, and other countries need to
send a strong signal to Moscow that creating 19th-century-style spheres
of influence and redrawing the borders of the former Soviet Union
is a danger to world peace. The U.S. and its European allies should
communicate to Moscow that its aggression will not stand and cannot
be accomplished without irreparable harm to Russia’s international
standing for decades to come. The U.S., its allies and Europe must
do everything possible to stop the aggression against Georgia.
Ariel Cohen, Ph.D., is Senior Research Fellow in Russian and Eurasian
Studies and International Energy Security in the Douglas and Sarah
Allison Center for Foreign Policy Studies, a division of the Kathryn
and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for International Studies at The
Heritage Foundation.