TURKISH FACTOR IN `LEVIATHAN’ AND `APHRODITE’ ENERGY `WARS’
03.05.2012
Sevak Sarukhnyan
Deputy Director of `Noravank’ Foundation,
Head of the Center for Political Studies, Candidate of Science
(Political Science)
Finding vast reserves of natural gas in the eastern Mediterranean has
turned this region into a stage of new energy and political
contradictions. On the one hand Israel and Cyprus, in which waters the
reserves were found, and on the other hand Turkey, which wants to
consolidate its positions in the Mediterranean, tend to protect their
claims on the gas sea reserves.
`Leviathan’ gas field as a source of energy security of Israel
Leviathan gas field, which is located in the Mediterranean Sea in
135km from the Israeli Haifa, was discovered in 2010 by the American
Noble Energy Company, which concluded contract with Israeli government
back in 2008 on initiating joint gas and oil exploration in the
Mediterranean. The gas reserves found in 2010 can be considered rather
impressive as, according to Noble Energy the total natural gas
reserves in this field are estimated up to 450 billion m3 which makes
it one of the biggest gas fields in the world. The importance of
Leviathan for Israel is conditioned by the fact that it will exempt
the Jewish state from the energy dependence on Egypt, which imports
exports gas to Israel. Taking into consideration that the political
processes going on in Egypt since 2011 can bring to power `Muslim
brothers’, who are of radical anti-Israeli orientation, discovering
and processing of a gas field of its own has become for Israel an
issue of paramount national importance.
On the other hand Israel is interested in reducing the level of energy
cooperation with Turkey, which has not proved to be a realizable
partner for Israel recently and tends to strengthen its positions in
the Middle East and with this purpose it widely uses local Islamists.
A gas field, which has reserves counting 450 billion m3, may provide
Israel consuming maximum 3 billion m3 of gas annually with gas for the
near 100 years. This will be a sound solution of Israel’s energy
security issue and ensure the energy independence from Egypt and
Turkey.
At the same time it should be mentioned that Leviathan also has rather
big oil reserves, the volume of which is not cleat yet. According to
preliminary research there are about 500 million tons, which turns
this field into crucial oil factor. This can become important not only
for Israel but for the whole region either as Israel will not be
dependent on Azerbaijani oil and Turkish Ceyhan port any more. The
latter, according to the Turkish plans, should become the biggest
energy hub in the region, the importance of which is conditioned by
the dependence of the Mediterranean region on the Caspian oil. This
dependence may simply disappear thanks to the Leviathan.
`Leviathan’ development
For Israel, which does not possess appropriate means for the
development of the gas field and production of the gas, it is
important from whom it will receive help for making necessary
investments in the gas field. The consortium, which was established
for the development of the oil field, consists of small companies,
which cannot provide appropriate investments due to the scantiness of
means.
`Leviathan’ development consortium
Due to this reason it is eagerly discussed what real chances Noble
Energy Company, which has $15 billion capitalization, has for the
development of Leviathan. According to the opinion of the American
analyst Jim Fink published by authoritative Investing Daily
periodical1 this American company, with its headquarters in Texas, is
obliged to cede its positions to a bigger company, which would be able
to invest proper money for the development of the gas field and gas
production.
It is obvious that Leviathan will attract new investors to the region
and those investors may be the biggest oil and gas companies. The
latter are closely connected with the western governments and in some
of the companies the biggest shareholders are the members of the
Jewish communities. Selling the share of Noble Energy to some big
energy company, which would be able not only to provide technical
backup of the project but also ensure necessary political support,
taking into consideration aggressive policy of Turkey directed to
obtaining the share of its own in Aphrodite and Leviathan, can become
a natural continuation of the ongoing negotiations. But before
referring to the Turkish interests let us turn to the Cypriot
Aphrodite gas field, which is, according to the geologists, natural
continuation of Leviathan and it has bound Israel and Cyprus
politically.
`Leviathan’ and `Aphrodite’ gas fields
`Aphrodite’ gas field as a guarantee of economic security of Cyprus
Aphrodite gas field, which is a continuation of the Israeli Leviathan
but is situated in the Cypriot maritime zone, was discovered in 2011
by the same Noble Energy Company. The amount of gas there is
considerable. According the geological exploration there are about
400-600 billion m3 of gas and about 300 million tons of oil. If we
take into consideration that Aphrodite and Leviathan are two parts of
the same gas field, we can state that this field is the biggest among
those which have been discover over recent ten years.
After discovering Aphrodite Cyprus will, most probably, become a big
energy carriers supplier, taking into consideration first of all the
fact that the Republic of Cyprus does not have big consumer market,
which is conditioned by an absence of industry in the country.
For Cyprus the discovered gas and oil supplies can become a guarantee
of countries independence and sovereignty. After the economic crisis
in Greece the financial and economic situation in Cyprus worsened as
the Cypriot economy and financial system are directly dependant on
Greece. The bankruptcy of the latter can result in the bankruptcy of
Cyprus as well, because alongside with the immigration of the Greek
population, the emigration of Muslim, mainly Arab migrants to the
country has grown, especially after war in Iraq2. A new wave of
emigrants to Cyprus is also expected from Syria where the political
crisis may even deepen ethnic and religious contradictions and cause
new wave of migration to Cyprus.
In this aspect the Cypriot authorities may use big oil and gas supply
for the economic development and curbing migration of Greeks from the
country. It is clear that considering all this Cyprus is ready to wage
struggle for protection of its rights on newly discovered fields even
if the other party is big and influential Turkey.
Turkey and fields in the Mediterranean
Since 2010 Turkey has been contesting rights of Cyprus and Israel on
managing gas and oil fields discovered in the Mediterranean. As we can
see from the map brought above, those fields are so far from the
Turkish coast that one can state without any analysis that the Turkish
claims are simply absurd. But Ankara is of other opinion and adopted
policy which can complicate development of the gas and oil fields
discovered by Israel and Cyprus and creation of an appropriate
infrastructure.
Turkey contests the fact that these fields are situated in the waters
which are not divided between the neighboring countries. Though in
2010-2011 Israel and Turkey adjusted the principles of delimitation of
waters and signed a document on that delimitation, Turkey continues
contesting Israeli and Cypriot rights.
In June 2011 the Minister of Energy of Turkey T. Yildiz stated that
the Republic of Cyprus has no right to export gas without adjusting
the issue of re-division of the reserves with Ankara. And the
president of the Turkish part of Cyprus Dervis Eroglu stated that
though the gas and oil fields were situated near the southern shore of
the island they could not be developed only by the Greeks as they are
of general importance for the whole island3.
On September 8, 2011, after the conclusion of Israeli-Cypriot
agreement on delimitation, the Turkish prime-minister Erdogan in his
interview to Al-Jazeera while speaking about Leviathan stated: `Israel
has begun to declare that it has the right to act in exclusive
economic areas in the Mediterranean,’ meanwhile Israel `will not be
the owner of this right’4. During the same interview Erdogan
threatened that Turkish navy can set control over any part in the
Mediterranean where Turkish interests are contested. The statement of
the Turkish prime-minister evoked a wide response in Israel where it
was taken as a hostile act and a threat. The Minister of Intelligence
of Israel Dan Meridor called Erdogan’s statement `risky and serious’,
adding that Israel was ready to face any challenge.
The former Israeli ambassador to Turkey Alon Liel who is today
considered to be one of the most authoritative Israeli analysts, in
his interview regarding Erdogan’s statement explained that in his
opinion the main reason of such an approach of the Turkish side was
rather stirring up of the Israeli-Cypriot cooperation (which is
characterized not only by economic but also by military components)
than the gas and oil fields. According to Liel after discovering huge
reserves of oil and gas Israel will built a big port on the territory
of Cyprus in cooperation with the local government and this port will
serve for exporting oil and gas to the international markets. In his
opinion this is the main reason of concern for Turkey as such a big
port constitutes real threat to Ankara’s strategy5, among the
provisions of which the suppression of the Greek part of the Cyprus
and turning Turkey into a main port hub are mentioned.
Against the background of Turkish threats Israel without any concern
spent the end of 2011 deepening partnership with Cyprus and Greece
which aimed to set cooperation in energy and other strategic areas. In
November the Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of Israel Dani Ayalon
visited Athens; while speaking about the main goal of the negotiations
he said: “We’re going to talk about making Greece and Cyprus
distribution centers for Israeli gas in Europe, which needs to
diversify its sources.”6
Israel has been continuing the policy directed to the deepening of
relations with Greece and Cyprus in recent months either, especially
after Turkey’s military gamble in December 2011.
Israeli-Cypriot military alliance
On December 20, 2011 Turkish naval forces unexpectedly started naval
trainings in the proximity of Aphrodite and Leviathan and it could be
seen from the Israeli and Cypriot ships which were carrying out
geological exploration that Turkish forces trained scenarios of
attacks on small static vessels (the type of vessels the Israelis and
Cypriots had there). This was regarded by both Israel and Cyprus as a
threat which was followed by the statement of the Minister of
Infrastructure of Israel U. Landau that they would continue their
works and that they were ready to respond to any attack. On the next
day after that incident Israel stated that it abolished a $90 million
cost contract on supplying LOROP systems for the Turkish military
aircrafts.
However, Israel’s real military and political response to Turkey
followed in 2012. In February, at the negotiations between the
president of Cyprus and prime-minister of Israel, for the first time,
the issue of establishment of factual military alliance between Israel
and Cyprus was discussed on the highest level. According to Jerusalem
Post’s military analyst Yaakov Katz the main topic of the negotiations
held in February was the deployment of the Israeli military air base
on the territory of Israel in order to protect gas and oil fields in
the Mideterranean7. Military air base, most probably, will be deployed
at `Andreas Papandeu’ air base in the south-western part of the
island. According to UPI establishment of not only military air base
but also deployment of a naval base, which would protect Cypriot oil
fields from possible Turkish attacks, is crucial for Cyprus8.
Currently, according to different Israeli and Greek non-official
sources, including DEBKA, Israel and Cyprus initiated drafting of the
agreement on creation of the military and political alliance.
While analyzing Turkey’s aggressive policy a lot of attention should
be paid to the policy of the United States. Though Washington calls to
embark on negotiations in case of aggravation of the situation and
settle the issue peacefully, the United States, nevertheless, provides
support to Israel and Cyprus. According to DEBKA, on December 20,
2011, before the Turkish side started its naval trainings the US
Secretary of State H. Clinton during her talks with the Minister of
Foreign Affairs of Cyprus E. Kozakou-Marcoullis advised to go full
steam ahead with gas drilling and ignore Turkish harassment9. Most
probably, the support of H. Clinton served a ground for the Minister
of Foreign Affairs of Cyprus to criticize Turkey during his address at
Woodrow Wilson Center; according to him Ankara is responsible for
deepening of contradictions in the region. As one of the participants
of the meeting wrote in his blog this was hailed by the audience.
It is obvious that Washington stood by Israel and Cyprus in the
Mediterranean crisis. As for Israel everything is clear, and
concerning Cyprus there are two main incentives directing Washington.
The first one is to restrain Turkey’s growth and curb strengthening of
the latter in the region. The second one is, taking into consideration
the fact that Noble Energy will cede its share to bigger companies,
ensure that these companies will be American and not Russian.
Especially if we take into consideration that deep cooperation has
existed between Moscow and Nicosia.
Anyway, it is obvious that the contradictions in this region will
deepen which will be furthered by general instability in the Near
East. New developments which can cause aggravation of both energy and
military-political contradictions and formation of new military and
political alliances are expected in the years to come.
1Jim Fink – Israel’s Huge Natural Gas Discovery. Investing Daily // 21
January, 2011.
2Fatima El-Issawi and Myria Georgiou – Media use at the crossroads:
Nicosia // Journalism 2010 #11: P. 758-763.
3Hürriyet Daily News | 9/6/2011.
4Simon Henderson, Turkey’s Threat to Israel’s New Gas Riches,
Washington Institute, September 14, 2011.
5Ethnan Bronner, Threat by Turkish Premier Raises Tensions With
Israel// New York Tomes, September 9.
6Israel ups gas field guard, plans exports // UPI, November 23, 2011.
7Israel seeks Cyprus base to guard gas fields// Jerusalem Post,
February 9, 2012.
8Israel tightens Med defense links over gas // UPI, January 11, 2012.
9Turkish warships shell narrow water between Israeli and Cypriot gas
fields // DEBKAfiles, 25 December, 2011.
`Globus’ analytical journal, # 4, 2012
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