Author: Badalian Vardan

DOCTOR FOUND HANGED IN OWN APARTMENT IN ARMENIA

news.am
May 16, 2012 | 15:28

YEREVAN. – A doctor was found hanged in own apartment on Wednesday,
police informed Armenian News-NEWS.am. According to a source, urologist
who worked at Yerevan’s Erebuni medical center Armen Tumanyan, 48,
had committed a suicide.

The head of the medical center Arthur Rostomyan said that Tumanyan
had been ill for a week and had been absent from work. Rostomyan had
nothing else to tell on possible reasons for committing a suicide.

EU HELPS DEVELOPING, CSTO DOES NOT
Naira Hayrumyan

Story from Lragir.am News:

Published: 12:12:54 – 16/05/2012

While during the CIS and CTSO summits in Moscow Vladimir Putin said the
CIS members are the main strategic partners of Russia, the European
Commission announced about the roadmap it has worked out ahead of
the Eastern Partnership summit in Vilnius, Lithuania. The roadmap
is called to boost by joint efforts the political association and
economic integration of Eastern Partnership member states with the EU,
said the EU commissioner for enlargement Stefan Fule.

“Armenia has achieved significant progress in the creation of
conditions ensuring the start of negotiations over the creation of a
Free trade zone. Overall, Armenia has progressed also regarding the
human rights and democracy issues”, the European Commission report
runs. It is noteworthy that the European Union called to ensure
accessibility of Nagorno-Karabakh and adjacent territories to its
representatives without any preconditions.

Today the Russian Vedomosti published an article of the Armenian
premier in which he actually stated that the economic integration
into the CIS is not beneficial to Armenia in the sense that they
don’t have common borders and so this won’t boost economic growth in
Armenia. He stated that Armenia’s cooperation with the European Union
is much more beneficial since it changes Armenia to comply with the
European standards.

“The agreement on free trade zone with the EU will ensure significant
progress in Armenia and will enhance export and import,” says Tigran
Sargsyan in the aforementioned article.

Actually, the forecasts of the analysts that the RPA faction
will represent the European trend, while the Prosperous Armenia
will represent the Russian trend, Heritage and Free Democrats the
pro-American trend, turn out to be true. Despite supporters of the
Eurasian Union on the Republican list, Tigran Sargsyan’s article
shows that the RPA will be inclined for association with the EU.

What can Russia do to prevent such course of developments? The first
statement has already been made. Dmitri Medvedev promised Serzh
Sargsyan “to support by all means the social-economic development
of Armenia.” This means that Russia may lend more money to Armenia
“to save the economy”. A similar step was taken in 2009 when it became
clear that Armenia’s economy cannot deal with the crisis alone. Later,
this loan was referred to for hundreds of times as a symbol of the
Armenian-Russian friendship.

Will Armenia accept the loan? Judging by Tigran Sargsyan’s interview,
Armenia may refuse.

The strengthening of the CSTO may become an argument for Russia to
attract Armenia. CSTO’s members facing security challenges, it serves
as support to the ruling regimes in the member states. This time, the
final resolution of the CSTO summit did not specify common challenges
of member states.

Nursultan Nazarbayev stated that CSTO leaders discussed in a
narrow circle further development of collective measures, including
counteraction to threats and challenges coming from Afghanistan. The
situation in the Near East, developments in Syria and Iranian nuclear
issues were also among the discussed topics.

All this can hardly be called issues of vital importance for Armenia.

But its authorities may be interested in Lukashenko’s statement:
“No one will attack CSTO countries openly but many are eager to carry
out coups.”

KREMLIN DOESN’T LIKE ARMENIA’S NEW PARLIAMENT
JAMES HAKOBYAN

Story from Lragir.am News:

Published: 10:13:28 – 16/05/2012

After the previous presidential elections in 2008, Serzh Sargsyan
visited Moscow and thanked the Russian president for support.

Four years have passed, another national election was held. After
the victory, Serzh Sargsyan again visited Moscow to attend the CIS
and CSTO meetings but this time he didn’t thank Putin for support in
the election.

Either Serzh Sargsyan understood from the previous experience that it
is at least strange that the president of a sovereign country thanks
the leader of the partner country and not the local voters, or Putin
has not showed any support to the parliamentary elections this time.

Putin may have supported a different force. Interestingly, Serzh
Sargsyan did not meet with President Putin in Moscow, but with Prime
Minister Medvedev.

In this meeting, Medvedev made an interesting statement.

Congratulating Serzh Sargsyan on the victory and holding out hope that
this success will boost the development of Armenia, Medvedev reiterated
Russia’s support to this process. “Armenia and Russia, according to the
Russian PM, remain good friends and allies,” the official message runs.

The interesting thing is the phrase “remain good friends and allies”.

Russia sounds somehow offended. It states that it “remains” a friend
and ally of Armenia, as if underlining that it remains such despite
its dissatisfaction with the process or the outcome of the elections
or perhaps even the post-election situation.

Russia seems to be conveying that though Armenia offended it with the
new parliament but it is generous and will remain our friend and ally.

What the friendship and alliance of Russia means can be seen in the
pages of the Armenian history. It is a chain of betrayals and deals
behind Armenia’s back, the modern phase of which is Russia’s relations
with Azerbaijan when it sells weapons of strategic importance to a
country which threatens to launch a war on its friend and ally and
kill its citizens.

In such cases, it would not be bad if Armenia started “offending”
Russia to make it understand that Moscow should give up the historic
tradition of fulfilling its interest and launching ties on account
of Armenia.

SEXUAL VIOLATION AGAINST UNDERAGE CONFIRMED IN ARMENIA’S HARTASHEN

news.am
May 15, 2012 | 20:52

YEREVAN. – Forensic-medical expertise confirmed sexual violation
against underage, the investigator Mkhitar Tigranyan told Armenian
News-NEWS.am.

The only suspect on the case so far is the Hartashen community head,
teacher Azat Ghukasyan. However, his guilt is still to be confirmed
or rejected.

The agency has earlier informed that Hartashen community head and
teacher in Armenia’s Syunik Region is suspected for having raped
an underage.

PARLIAMENT TO INVESTIGATE ARMENIA’S CONTROVERSIAL NUCLEAR PLANT

Today’s Zaman
May 14 2012
Turkey

A group of deputies submitted a joint proposal to the Office of the
Speaker of Parliament last Wednesday to establish a commission to
investigate the risks to Turkey posed by Armenia’s controversial
Metsamor nuclear power plant.

Recalling that Armenia’s Metsamor nuclear power plant is located 16
kilometers from the Turkish border and very close to Turkey’s eastern
provinces of Igdır, Kars, Ardahan and Agrı, the proposal stated: “The
plant is located in an earthquake zone. After a devastating earthquake
in 1988 that caused 25,000 deaths, the plant was seriously damaged
and it was leaking for the next three months. Armenian authorities
shut it down, but it was reopened in 1993.”

In their proposal the deputies called on Armenia to shut down the plant
for the safety of the region and added that Parliament should set
up a parliamentary research commission to investigate the potential
risks the nuclear power plant poses to Turkey’s eastern provinces
and the effects of the earthquake that hit southern Armenia in 1988
on the plant and the region.

Armenia’s Metsamor nuclear power plant was built in the 1970s, but the
technology installed at that time is no longer acceptable by modern
safety standards. It was closed due to an earthquake in Armenia
in 1988, but the Armenian government decided to reopen the damaged
plant in 1993, citing an energy shortage in the country. Currently,
Metsamor provides 45 percent of the country’s electric consumption.

The Metsamor nuclear power plant has been labeled by the European
Union and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) as one of
the five most dangerous nuclear facilities in the world.

In 1999, the EU sent a delegation to Yerevan to conduct an on-site
inspection of the plant. Simultaneous investigations by the IAEA and
the EU concluded that the plant should be immediately shut down.

Before becoming a member of the European Council on Jan. 25, 2001,
Armenia pledged to close the plant by 2004. In return, the EU would
reimburse Armenia’s losses by up to 100 million euros. Armenia found
the EU’s proposal insufficient and requested 1 billion euros instead.

Later the EU increased its pressure and Armenia declared that it
would not close the plant.

TEACHERS TREATED TO LOUNGE MAKEOVER AT HOVSEPIAN SCHOOL IN PASADENA
By James Figueroa

Pasadena Star-News

May 15 2012
CA

PASADENA – St. Gregory A.&M. Hovsepian School had its own version of
“Extreme Makeover” last week, the teachers lounge edition.

Parents and board members from the small Armenian school chipped in
funds and volunteered their time, surprising teachers by renovating
the lounge with a paint job, new furniture and upgraded appliances.

It all culminated in teacher appreciation day as the teachers came
to work May 7 to discover their new home away from home.

“They were just shocked, they couldn’t believe it,” said parent
Aline Boulgourjian, who chaired the project. “Just the morale has
been amazing in the school in the last week.”

Teachers say they are using the lounge far more often than they did
previously, happy to have a coffee machine, a water cooler, a laptop
and a functioning microwave.

The room also has a relaxing atmosphere, with a new sofa set, various
photos of the teachers with students and a small water fountain. An
inspirational note painted on the wall reads: “A teacher takes a hand,
opens a mind, and touches a heart.”

“I love it. It’s the perfect place to unwind, and just have a little
bit of personal time,” teacher Armig Matosian said. “It’s so nice to
be in there now.”

Boulgourjian managed to coordinate the project without using tuition
funds, instead relying on donations and fundraising.

Eight members of the school’s board, including Principal Shahe
Mankerian, donated $250 each

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for the effort. The Parent Teacher Organization also raised money
through a bake sale.

“The really amazing thing was how everyone came together,” Boulgourjian
said. “The whole parents, community, even alumni just pitched in,
gave their time, gave their money, whatever they could give.”

Mankerian said he was just as surprised to see the final result as
the teachers were.

“The beauty of this whole thing is the teachers never asked for it,”
Mankerian said.

Previously, the lounge was drab and rundown, with an old, rusting
refrigerator and frayed couches. The microwave didn’t work, and there
was little reason to use it.

“It was a typical teachers lounge at any private or public school,
neglected on some level, things had been just dumped there over the
years,” Mankerian said.

Project organizers convinced teachers to stay out of the room in the
days before the makeover by claiming there was a mold problem.

“People were going in and out measuring windows and trying to figure
out how to make the furniture fit in the room,” Boulgourjian said. “We
had to keep them away.”

With the improvements, teachers now find themselves with an inviting
place to get their morning coffee.

“Now we don’t want to leave,” teacher Maro Shahinian said.

5TH ISLAM AND ARMENIAN CHURCH DIALOGUE KICKS OFF IN TEHRAN

Ahlul Bayt News Agency

May 15 2012
Iran

The fifth round of dialogues between the Center for Interreligious
Dialogue and the Armenian Orthodox Church, Catholicosate of Cilicia,
kicks off yesterday, May 14, in Tehran.

(Ahlul Bayt News Agency) – The fifth round of dialogues between the
Center for Interreligious Dialogue and the Armenian Orthodox Church,
Catholicosate of Cilicia, kicks off yesterday, May 14, in Tehran.

Titled “The Role of Religion in Promotion of Ethical Values in the
Society”, the forum has been organized by the Organization for Culture
and Islamic Relations in cooperation with Armenian Orthodox Church.

A number of officials and experts including Dr Mohammad Baqer
Khorramshad, head of the organization, Ayatollah Taskhiri, Secretary
General of the World Forum for Proximity of Islamic Schools of
Thought, Archbishop Sebuh Sarkisian, the Armenian Orthodox primate
of the diocese of Tehran, Patriarch Aram Keshishian, Catholicos
of Cilicia for the Armenian Orthodox and Mohammad Reza Dehshiri,
educational-research deputy of the organization, are among the leading
figures attending the event.

Mohammad Reza Dehshiri gave a speech at the meeting and elaborated
on the cultural commonalities of the two faiths namely Islam and
Christianity, describing Armenian religious minority as the biggest
minority group in the country.

“Islamic Republic of Iran attaches great importance to the status
and rights of all the religious minorities in the country”.

Referring to the historical aspects of ethics in Islam and
Christianity, he underscored the pivotal role of ethics in resolving
crises during the history and described the relationship of Fiqh and
ethics as crucial in both faiths.

It is underway at the premises of Culture and Islamic Relations
Organization.

ENP PACKAGE, COUNTRY PROGRESS REPORT – ARMENIA

Europa.eu

May 15 2012

The European Commission and the High Representative of the Union
for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy published on 15 May 2012 the
annual “neighbourhood package”, consisting of a joint communication
(“Delivering on the new European Neighbourhood Policy”) making
an assessment of the first year of implementation of the new ENP
adopted in 2011, a separate joint communication proposing an “Eastern
Partnership Road Map”, a report on the “Partnership for Democracy and
Shared prosperity” with Southern Mediterranean (including a roadmap
for future action), an Eastern Partnership progress report, 12 country
reports (on developments in 2011 and with a set of recommendations
for the future), including one on Armenia, and a statistical annex.

Within the Eastern Partnership, the negotiations for an EU-Armenia
Association Agreement (AA) progressed at a good pace. Armenia made
substantial progress in implementing the “key recommendations” allowing
for the launching of negotiations on a Deep and Comprehensive Free
Trade Area (DCFTA). Overall, Armenia made good progress in the areas
of Democracy and Human Rights.

On the basis of this year’s report and with a view to sustained
implementation of the ENP Action Plan in 2012, Armenia is invited to:

Ahead of the upcoming presidential elections scheduled in 2013,
address the shortcomings identified by OSCE/ODIHR concerning the
May 2012 Parliamentary elections, in order to fully meet recognized
international democratic standards Step up efforts with Azerbaijan
to reach agreement on the Madrid Principles in accordance with the
commitments made by the Presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan in the
framework of the Minsk Group.

Provide unconditional access for representatives of the EU to Nagorno
Karabakh and surrounding regions.

Fully investigate the deaths that occurred during the clashes of
March 2008 and the allegations of ill-treatment in police custody
and violation of due process.

Ensure finalisation and implementation of the National Human Rights
Strategy and Action Plan.

Adopt amendments to the legislation on broadcasting in compliance
with the recommendations of the OSCE and the Council of Europe,
and ensure pluralism in the broadcasting media.

Finalise the draft law on Conscience and Religious Freedoms, in
line with international standards as well as the legislation on
alternative civilian service, in conformity with Venice Commission
and OSCE recommendations.

Adopt comprehensive anti-discrimination legislation, including further
steps leading to the harmonisation of legislation with the EU acquis
in the areas of gender equality and non-discrimination.

Strengthen enforcement of the Anti-Corruption Strategy and boost
capacity for combating corruption.

Strengthen the implementation of the reform agenda presented by
the Armenian authorities, including measures to reform public
administration and the judicial sector (especially increase the
independence of the judiciary, improve the training of judges, review
the code of criminal procedure, pursue the Police Reform Programme).

Continue to advance sectoral reforms and regulatory approximation to
the EU acquis in trade and trade-related areas based on the key and
additional recommendations identified in the preparation for the DCFTA.

Work towards the earliest possible closure of the Medzamor Nuclear
Power Plant and adopt a detailed decommissioning plan for this plant,
taking into account the result of stress tests.

Political dialogue and reform In the area of deep and sustainable
democracy, positive steps were taken to prepare the country
for upcoming elections, with changes in the electoral code and a
presidential amnesty for the remaining persons detained for charges
related to the March 2008 events. There are however concerns about
media freedom relating to the limitations on TV broadcasting and
to suits for insult and defamation. Significant restrictions to the
freedom of assembly and association remain.

Despite a strong reform effort, public trust in the judiciary continues
to be low, and perception of corruption high.

Civilian control over the security forces is effective. Despite
information about incident being published by the Ministry of Defence,
impunity for human rights violations committed by members of the
security forces is a matter of concern.

No significant progress occurred in the area of freedom of religion
and belief. The alternative civilian service continues to remain
a problem in 2011 both in legislation and practice. The government
was active in strengthening the legal framework to ensure children’s
rights and gender equality. As regards civil society, registration
requirements for non governmental organizations (NGOs) are cumbersome
and time-consuming, while labour organisations are weak and relatively
inactive in practice.

The National Preventive Mechanism under the Optional Protocol to the
UN Convention against Torture should be further strengthened. Cases
of torture and ill treatment among military conscripts, in prison
facilities and police stations are not adequately investigated.

Negotiations on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict within the Minsk Group
led to no tangible results in 2011. Amidst increasing tension along
the Line of Contact, mediation efforts resulted in marginal progress
on the investigation of the violation of the ceasefire agreement.

Economic and social reform As the authorities maintained prudent
macroeconomic policies and introduced several structural reforms,
Armenia showed encouraging signs of recovery (4.6% growth rate in 2011)
after the severe recession that resulted from the international crisis
in 2009.

The economy was supported by an IMF financing arrangement and
exceptional donor assistance, including Macro-Financial Assistance
from the EU worth EUR 100 million.

Armenia continued to progress towards meeting the objectives of the
Action Plan in the area of macroeconomic policy, poverty reduction
and social cohesion. Longer-term growth prospects are very uncertain
due to lack of diversification, low competitiveness and closed borders
with two out of four Armenia’s neighbour countries.

In 2011, 6 % of the population was unemployed and 36% was below the
poverty line. The implementation of Armenia’s Sustainable Development
Programme on poverty reduction 2008-2021 continued to be suspended
in 2011.

Trade-related issues, market and regulatory reform Bilateral trade
continued to improve in 2011 from the 2009 slowdown with 18.2%
increase year-on-year. EU exports to Armenia increased by 15.7%,
while EU imports from Armenia increased by 23.3%.

Armenia made substantial progress in implementing the “key
recommendations” for the launching of negotiations on a Deep
and Comprehensive Free Trade Area, in particular legislative and
institutional reforms in the areas of Technical Barriers to Trade,
Sanitary and Phytosanitary Standards and Intellectual Property Rights.

It adopted for example a food safety strategy.

23 laws were adopted between February and April with the aim of
improving business climate and to facilitate company establishment.

Cooperation on justice, freedom and security Following adoption of
the 2010 Border Security and Border Management Strategy 2011-2015,
Armenia approved an implementation Action Plan in April. A National
Action Plan 2012-2016 for the implementation of the Concept for the
Policy of State Regulation of Migration was adopted in November.

Directives for the negotiation between the EU and Armenia of visa
facilitation and readmission agreements were adopted by the EU in
December and were launched on 27th February 2012. In October 2011, the
EU-Armenia Mobility Partnership was established, proposing cooperation
in four major areas (mobility, legal migration and integration;
migration and development; fight against irregular immigration;
asylum and international protection).

Armenia adopted national strategy and programmes or legislative
amendments to improve effectiveness of the fight against organised
crime, terrorism, drug trafficking, money laundering and trafficking
in human beings.

Transport, energy, environment, the information society, research and
development Transport: Armenia continued to implement its 2009-2020
transport strategy. In July, Armenia became a full member of the
Organisation for International Carriage by Rail.

Energy: Armenia started updating its energy strategy and adopted a
renewable energy roadmap. The EU continues to request the closure
of Medzamor Nuclear Power Plant as soon as possible, as it cannot be
upgraded to meet internationally recognised nuclear safety standards.

Armenia expressed readiness to undertake with the EU a comprehensive
risk and safety assessment of the plant, taking account of EU
standards. Armenia became observer of the Energy Community.

Climate change: The government adopted a five year action plan for
the implementation of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change
(UNFCCC). Armenia is encouraged to engage in the new carbon market
mechanism to be developed following the UNFCCC COP 17, as well as to
fully implement the Cancun and Durban agreements.

Environment: Armenia started preparing a new environment action
plan post 2012. The Regional Environmental Centre for the Caucasus
continued its activities in 2011; its founders want to see its role
enhanced in the years to come and tried to find a solution to its debt
problem Research and innovation: Armenia continued to increase the
number of applications to the 7th Framework Programme (24 research
organisations involved in 22 projects).

People-to-people contacts, education and health Education: Higher
education reform continued to benefit from EU-Armenia cooperation and
support via the Tempus IV programme (two additional projects), the
Erasmus Mundus programme (49 scholarships and mobility grants), the
Marie Curie scheme (seven institutions and six individual researchers)
and the Jean Monnet programme (one module awarded to Yerevan State
University).

Culture: Armenia participated in four projects under the 2010 Special
Action for ENP countries under the Culture Programme. The Youth
Parliament of the Armenian National Assembly started its work in May
2011. Youth organisations continued benefitting from the exchange
opportunities under the Youth in Action programme (380 participants).

Health: Reform continued with a view to improving, within the limited
available financial means, access to, availability of and quality
of health care services. Special attention was paid to address the
burden of tuberculosis.

EU-Armenia – BACKGROUND THE POLICY The European Neighbourhood Policy
governs the relations between the EU and Armenia. Since 2009 the EU
implements the Eastern Partnership, the Eastern dimension of the ENP
framework, aiming at substantially upgrading engagement with the six
Eastern neighbours via:

– a Bilateral track, whose objectives include the establishing of
Association Agreements with Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Areas,
once conditions have been met, as well as progress on visa and mobility
issues, and

– a Multilateral track (i.e. intergovernmental platforms and Flagship
Initiatives).

This approach allows for gradual political association and deeper
economic integration.

FACTS AND FIGURES 1999: Entry into force of the EU-Armenia Partnership
and Cooperation Agreement.

2006: Approval of the EU-Armenia Action Plan.

2009: EU Advisory Group to Armenia (financed by the EU) started its
activities with the aim of supporting the Armenian authorities in
the implementation of the key areas of the ENP Action Plan

2009: Neighbourhood Investment Facility committed EUR 14.6 million in
grants and technical assistance for two projects in the transport
sector. Armenia is also eligible for three regional projects,
committing EUR 24 million in the energy and financial sectors

2007-2010: The ENPI1 envelope for Armenia stands at EUR 98.4 million

2011-2013: The new National Indicative Programme (NIP) 2011-13 for
Armenia was adopted in March 2010 and has a budget of EUR 157.3
million. The programme is geared towards supporting the achievement
of key policy objectives as outlined in the EU-Armenia Action Plan
and pursues three priorities: (1) democratic structures and good
governance, (2) trade and investment; regulatory alignment and reform,
and (3) socio-economic reform and sustainable development.

2011: Establishment of the EU-Armenia Mobility Partnership.

2011: Armenia became observer of the Energy Community.

More info at:

1 :

the European Neighbourhood Partnership Instrument

TWO SKINHEADS GO ON TRIAL IN MOSCOW MAY 16

ITAR-TASS
May 14, 2012 Monday 11:20 PM GMT+4
Russia

The Moscow City Court begins on May 16 to consider on the merits the
cases of two Muscovites, members of an extremist group, accused of
attacks and murder out of ethnic hate.

It will be an open trial, a source in the court’s press service told
Itar-Tass. The panel of jury was formed on Monday. “The sides selected
twelve main jurors and two extras,” said the source.

According to investigators, Georgy Golovanov who is underage and his
acquaintance Yevgeny Marenchuk in April-May 2010 committed out of
ethnic hate a number of cruel grave crimes against citizens of Central
Asian countries and people from the Caucasus. Thus, on April 27 the
youths, having arms, attacked an Armenian citizen in the Maryina
Roshcha district of Moscow. Golovanov stabbed the man, killing him,
and then the youths took his mobile telephone and fled.

“On May 12, near the Moscow -Stankolit railway platform, they attacked
citizens of Tajikistan and Mongolia. The Tajik was stabbed in the
abdomen and the Mongolian citizen in the chest,” sources in the
investigation department said.

In the same area on May 5, the youths stabbed an Uzbek citizen who
died of knife wounds. On May 8 the defendants wounded a man from
Kyrgyzstan in Streletskaya street.

The defendants fully confessed to their crimes, except for the murder
of the Armenian citizen, as each of them tries to shift the blame on
the other.

‘ACCIDENTAL WAR’ WAITING TO HAPPEN ON EU PERIPHERY

EUobserver.com
May 14, 2012 Monday 10:25 AM GMT

If or when a full-blown conflict erupts between Armenia and Azerbaijan,
it will probably begin like this.

According to a senior source in the Armenian defence ministry, on
27 April Azerbaijani troops sneaked over the Armenian border in the
north-east province of Tavush and took up positions on either side
of a road connecting the villages of Movses and Aygepar.

At around 2am local time – the source said – they opened fire
from close range at the windscreen of an approaching car carrying
out-of-uniform Armenian soldiers. The ambush killed 28-year-old David
Abgaryan, 21-year-old Arshak Nersisyan and 26-year-old father-of-one
Aram Yesayan.

The killing is a “clear provocation,” the source told EUobserver in
Yerevan on 5 May. He added: “We have not reacted yet. I underline
‘yet’.”

The Azerbaijani foreign ministry told this website that the incident
never took place. It says Armenia staged the hoax to create an
atmosphere of crisis to help the ruling party in elections on 6 May.

Disturbing claims and counter-claims are nothing new in the
25-year-long “frozen” conflict over the disputed territory of
Nagorno-Karabakh. But in this case outside observers favour the
Armenian line.

The Minsk Group – a club of French, Russian and US diplomats trying
to mediate between Baku and Yerevan – in a statement on 27 April
condemned “such senseless acts.” A senior Yerevan-based EU diplomat
told EUobserver the Armenian account is “credible.”

The 27 April incident marks an escalation because killings normally
take place along the “line of contact” on the Nagorno-Karabakh border,
not in Armenia or Azerbaijan proper.

It also comes in a dangerous new environment.

Open conflict used to be unlikely because neither side could win. But
petro-rich Azerbaijan has altered the balance of power. According to
the Stockholm-based research institute, Sipri, it spent $11 billion
on weapons in the past five years compared to less than $2 billion
by Armenia.

Its latest purchase – $1.6 billion of high-tech drones and missiles
from Israel – could be decisive if Israel also builds a joint training
and maintenance facility.

Peter Semneby, until recently the EU’s special envoy to the region,
told this website: “The danger of an incident spiralling out of
control is gradually increasing.”

‘Accidental war’

Richard Giragosian, a US analyst who used to advise the CIA and
the Pentagon, said Azerbaijan killed the Armenian soldiers to look
important before assuming the rotating presidency of the UN Security
Council on 1 May. He also noted that the risk of an “accidental war”
in which a minor incident blows up is getting bigger.

If it does, it will be felt far beyond Nagorno-Karabakh.

In terms of direct threats to EU interests, it would increase oil
prices by destroying the BTC pipeline from the Caspian Sea to the
Mediterranean. It would also halt EU plans to reduce energy dependence
on Russia by building a gas pipeline through the region.

Meanwhile, Russia – which has 5,000 soldiers at its base in Gyumri,
Armenia – is obliged to intervene under the terms of the Nato-type
Collective Security Treaty Organisation. The US has 300 diplomats
and thousands of Armenian-American passport holders in Yerevan at
any given time.

Looking further afield, Turkey is a historic ally of Azerbaijan and
Iran is unhappy about the installation of Israeli weapons on its
northern flank.

The EU has so far limited its role to offering cheap visas and free
trade for Armenia and Azerbaijan if things go well.

For his part, Giragosian says it can do more: “It needs to send
a message to Azerbaijan that there is a price to pay for ceasefire
violations and to put pressure on Armenia to take positive unilateral
steps, such as pulling back snipers [from the line of contact].”

But with EU firms, such as Austria’s OMV and Germany’s RWE currently
negotiating gas contracts with Azerbaijan, there is little appetite
for annoying Baku.

‘How many will I lose?’

Amid the geopolitical considerations, Armenia is sure of one thing: if
fighting escalates, its big friends will leave it to its own devices.

“If something goes wrong on Nagorno-Karabakh … what will happen?

Let’s do a scenario. The EU will say: ‘We seriously condemn this and
we call on all parties to halt immediately.’ The UN Security Council
will debate a resolution calling on all sides to do this or that.

There will be a commission,” Armenian deputy foreign minister Zohrab
Mnatsakanian told EUobserver.

Looking back to the recent funerals of David Abgaryan, Arshak Nersisyan
and Aram Yesayan, he added: “How long will it all take?

Three days? Five days? How many people will I lose during these three
days? This is the way we think.”