ARIF YUNUSOV: FEW PEOPLE IN AZERBAIJAN BELIEVE THAT THE WEST WILL SUPPORT IN KARABAKH CONFLICT SETTLEMENT
by David Stepanyan
arminfo
Wednesday, May 16, 18:24
Interview of Arif Yunusov, Head of the Conflict Studies and Migration
Department of the Institute for Peace and Democracy, with ArmInfo
news agency
On 1 May 2012 the non-permanent member of the UN Security Council
Azerbaijan took chairmanship in this structure. The first speech of
President Aliyev, in which he blamed Armenia for terrorism against
Azerbaijan and directly linked terror with the Karabakh conflict,
has demonstrated his intention to use the platform of the Security
Council like a means for pushing his position on the Nagornyy Karabakh
conflict bypassing Minsk Group co-chairmen. What are the prospects
of such a position?
Today the Azeri and Armenian authorities do not trust each other
and are waging an open information war. They are trying to use any
tribune and opportunity for gaining the upper hand.
Therefore, Azerbaijan’s non-permanent membership and now chairmanship
in the UN Security Council was good news for the Azeris and bad news
for the Armenians – for both sides perfectly knew that this would be
used in their information war.
Had Armenia been in Azerbaijan’s place, President Sargsyan would have
also tried to use that tribune for accusing Azerbaijan and Turkey. So,
to me Aliyev’s speech is normal. The question is how effective it
was and what it will give Azerbaijan. Of course, all this information
war is creating new obstacles to the settlement. If the Armenian and
Azeri presidents trusted each other, everything would be different,
but this, alas, is not so. I am a realist and perfectly understand
that Azerbaijan will use the Security Council’s tribune for propaganda
only and will not be able to push its resolution bypassing the OSCE MG.
Should there be such an attempt, it will be cut short by the MG
co-chairs.
What is today’s specifics of relations between the West and official
Baku? Does Baku continue selling oil and gas on privilege prices with
a hope to be supported in the matter of Nagornyy Karabakh conflict
settlement?
First, Azerbaijan was conducting its oil policy thinking that in an
exchange for favorable terms in delivery of energy resources, the
West and first of all the USA will support to resolve the Karabakh
conflict. But time showed that these illusions are still illusions.
Having got its share in the energy resources, the West was not eager
to help Azerbaijan in the Karabakh settlement. However, this does not
hinder the authorities of Azerbaijan to believe that such a policy
will give, or in other words, should give its fruits sooner or later.
Today, another geo-political factor has been added to the issue
of energy resources – the role of Russia with its
and the problem of Iran, which undoubtedly raises the role of
Azerbaijan in the region for the western countries. The countries
of the European Union have recently started drawing more attention
at the relations with Azerbaijan, as it is very much important for
them to find alternative to the Russian gas. As for the USA, it may
let itself not to be concerned much about the “gas policy” of Russia,
as the role of Azerbaijan in the matter of Iran is more important for
the USA. As a result, all this together has led to the situation, that
on the one hand, in Azerbaijan the authorities still believe they have
an opportunity for using the energy resources factor and the factor
of its role in the region for the Karabakh issue settlement. And on
the other hand, the western countries especially the European ones
have started developing the relations with Azerbaijan more actively
and showing special attention to the energy problems. However, the
situation in the public opinion of Azerbaijan has changed much. In
the middle of the 90s Azerbaijan had romantic views about the role
and potential of the West in the matter of Karabakh returning and
life improvement in Azerbaijan, including the aid for democratizing
of the country. But these illusions disappeared quickly especially
during Ilham Aliyev’s tenure. And the anti-American and anti-western
mood has started growing quickly in Azerbaijan, especially along
with growing of the islamist factor influence in the society. And
representatives of the western countries, including diplomats, have
started taking this moment into consideration.
I think that for this reason the western diplomats have been trying
to persuade the Azerbaijani society that the countries represented
by them in Azerbaijan are concerned not so much about the energy
resources, as about the democracy problems. But the more they say
about it, the less the society trusts in them, as there is a widely
spread viewpoint in the Azerbaijani society, according to which,
actually the West needed only the energy resources in Azerbaijan.
Few people in Azerbaijan believe that the West will support in the
matter of Nagornyy Karabakh conflict resolving.
President Obama has recently appointed ” oil expert” Richard
Morningstar a new ambassador of the USA to Azerbaijan. Is such an
appointment evidence of the priorities of the USA in Azerbaijan?
By appointing another oil expert Richard Morningstar as its ambassador
to Azerbaijan the United States has proved the continuity of its
policy in the country and the region. The problem N1 for the Obama
Administration for the moment is Iran, the problems N2 and N3 being
energy resources and Russia. These are the three priorities of
the United States’ policy in the Caucasus and Azerbaijan. The last
question is not being mentioned in public, but everybody understands
that despite declared partnership, the United States and Russia are
strongly confronting each other in the region. Despite assurances
that human rights and democracy are
also a priority, the Americans keep closing their eyes on human rights
violations in Azerbaijan and are focused exclusively on their geo-
political and energy ambitions.
The authorities of Azerbaijan have taken great efforts and spending
big funds for creation of the Azerbaijani lobbyist organizations in
the USA and Europe. They do that as a counterbalance to the Armenian
lobbyist organizations functioning for many years. How successful
is their activity? And is it stemming from the interests of the
Azerbaijani people?
Over the last years the Azerbaijani authorities invested much for
creation or enhancing of the Diaspora Azerbaijani organizations
acting in the western countries. Actually, they do that as a counter
to the Armenian Diaspora organizations. It could not be in another
way, as the Karabakh conflict has not been settled yet. The Armenian
Diaspora organizations have been doing the same, but in their activity
they first of all mean Turkey and then Azerbaijan. That is to say,
they have been acting against the countries, which they have got a
conflict or a serious unsettled problem with. This is stemming from
the interests of the Azerbaijani people as much as the activity of
the Armenian Diaspora organizations is stemming from the interests of
the people of Armenia. All this is a mirror reflection of the conflict.
Much will change after settlement of the conflict. However, we still
have what we should have in the conditions of the unsettled conflict.
The same has been taking place in the sniper and sabotage war at the
Armenian-Azerbaijani line of contact, as a result of which people
fall every week. As a result, the feeling of hatred raises among
Armenians and Azerbaijanis to those who have been regularly breaking
the ceasefire regime and killing civilians for the last 18 years. For
this reason, in the Azerbaijani society the facts of people’s death
cause negative reaction against the enemy, i.e. the Armenians. We
see the same attitude in the Armenian society to the Azerbaijanis.
The mass collisions between the people and police have recently taken
place in the regions of Azerbaijan populated by the Lezgins and the
Talishes. What are their reasons?
I have not heard of any clashes with the police in the southern region
densely populated with the Talishes. Someone outside Azerbaijan has
hastily presented the situation as such.
There is a social factor in those clashes. The social factor was big
also before. The situation in the provinces is deteriorating year by
year, first of all, because of the bureaucratic outrage and high level
of corruption. Therefore, in various regions of Azerbaijan such clashes
with the police and public unrest have become quite frequent over the
last years. Last year there were especially serious clashes with the
police in the Sabirabad and Saatli regions, for instance. All this is
not news for us. There is unrest in the north of Azerbaijan, in the
town of Guba, in the current year that evoked wide response both in
Azerbaijan and outside it. It was after the unrest in Guba that those
fantastic versions of clashes with ethnic overtones originated. There
were reports on the unrest among the Lezgin population, Jews, Tats and
other national minorities. However, there was no ethnic factor in those
clashes, for most of the activists were Azerbaijanis by nationality.
The residents of Guba were protesting against activity of the head
of the local administration whose tyranny has led the people to the
‘boiling point’. In fact, there was social outbreak. Afterwards,
in other regions of Azerbaijan the population also woke up and the
authorities had nothing to do but dismiss the especially odious
officials to avoid repetition of the incidents in Guba.