KARABAKH LEADER FENDS OFF CHALLENGE
By Hayk Ghazaryan
Institute for War and Peace Reporting IWPR
Caucasus Reporting #652
UK
Defeated challenger could become focus of Karabakh’s first real
opposition force.
Nagorny Karabakh’s incumbent president Bako Sahakyan may have won
an easy victory in the July 19 election, but analysts say a new
opposition movement is likely to form around his defeated opponent,
and could emerge as a force to be reckoned with.
Although Sahakyan won 67 per cent of the vote, his main challenger
Vitaly Balasanyan got a respectable 32.5 per cent – the highest score
any opposition candidate has scored in a presidential election.
Sahakyan got 85 per cent when he was first elected in 2007, repeating
the pattern of previous elections in which the incumbent was either
reelected or passed the mantle on to a favoured successor.
Nagorny Karabakh was part of Azerbaijan during the Soviet era but
has been ruled by an Armenian administration since the war of the
early 1990s. A ceasefire in 1994 effectively froze the conflict,
but no peace agreement has been signed. Protracted negotiations have
failed to produce an agreement on Karabakh’s future status that all
sides can sign up to.
Addressing Karabakh’s residents after the election, Sahakyan
promised to improve the standard of living – high on the list of
voters’ concerns, as IWPR found in an earlier report – as well as to
strengthen the armed forces and bolster the “trinity” of Karabakh,
Armenia, and the large Armenian diaspora worldwide.
His team appeared unconcerned about the fall in his vote compared
with the 2007 result.
“A great deal has been achieved over the past five years…. There
have been mistakes, and there will be more – that is normal. President
Sahakyan has never denied that there were mistakes,” his spokesman
Davit Babayan said. “But steps will be taken to resolve outstanding
issues.”
Balasanyan accepted defeat, but said the election was unfair. He has
yet to congratulate his opponent.
“The presidential election in Nagorny Karabakh has shown that there
are going to be some serious changes in this country, and the whole
political atmosphere will alter,” Alexander Iskandaryan, a political
analyst and director of the Caucasus Institute in Yerevan, the capital
of neighbouring Armenia, said at a press conference on July 20.
“There’s the impression an opposition force is likely to form in
Karabakh. And it will be hard for the authorities not to reckon
with it.”
Iskandaryan said Balasanyan’s sizeable electorate was likely to throw
its weight behind this new opposition.
Balasanyan appeared to confirm this in his post-election remarks,
saying he would continue his political activities, given that at
least a third of Karabakh’s voting-age population was unhappy with
the current government and wanted changes.
“It has been decided that there are to be two political forces, and
that we will achieve those changes though various forms of political
struggle,” he said.
Political opposition in Karabakh has traditionally been weak, and
largely confined to individuals contesting seats in elections.
Sahakyan had the backing of all three parliamentary parties – Free
Homeland, the Democratic Party of Artsakh and Dashnaktsutyun – as
well as the unelected Communists.
Karen Ohanjanyan, a civil society leader and head of the Social
Justice Party, is convinced that this election signals a change,
and that stronger opposition will emerge.
“This political force will unite all healthy forces in Karabakh
society, and seek a change of government through legal means [by]
getting elected and… moving swiftly to create a healthier social and
political climate,” he said. “The current authorities have devaluated
the concept of elected government.”
Presidential spokesman Davit Babayan said the ruling team would take
opposition criticism on board as long as it was constructive.
“If your opponent has a constructive point of view, then collaboration
with him becomes possible and necessary. It all depends on the level
of constructiveness,” he said.
Meanwhile, Balasanyan’s campaign chief Eduard Aghabekyan has filed
a complaint on alleged procedural violations with Karabakh’s Central
Electoral Committee.
“The incumbent president and his team were unable to conduct a fair
election. The polls were free, but not fair,” Balasanyan said in a
Facebook posting – a medium he made much use of during his campaign.
“Throughout the campaign period, and on election day, people were put
under pressure, and [state] administrative resources were entirely
dedicated to collecting votes for the incumbent.”
The Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe did not send
election observers to Karabakh, given that the state’s sovereignty
claim remains unrecognised. The Netherlands-based International Expert
Centre for Electoral Systems did send monitors, who found that the
polls and the count were in line with international standards and
constituted a free expression of the popular will. Observers from
Russia were also positive about the process.
Others, however, found fault with the conduct of the elections. After
noting positive features, the European Friends of Armenia group
said its monitors visited polling stations where extraneous people
were present, and where ballot boxes were not sealed and marked in
a consistent manner.
The Karabakh-open.info website carried news of alleged violations,
including a report of an assault on Balasanyan’s agent in the village
of Astghashen of Askeran region. This formed part of the complaint
the candidate’s team submitted to election officials.
Raya Nazaryan, secretary of the Central Electoral Committee, told IWPR
that the alleged assault had looked into and the matter referred to
the police for possible action.
Hayk Ghazaryan is a correspondent for the Hetq newspaper in
Stepanakert, Nagorny Karabakh.
http://iwpr.net/report-news/karabakh-leader-fends-challenge