Whither PAP/RPA Relations?: Intrigue mounts as no word from party boss
on PAP’s position re Sargsyan
Analysis | 26.10.12 | 14:45
By Gayane Abrahamyan
ArmeniaNow reporter
The greatest domestic political intrigue related to the coming
presidential election concerns the position of Prosperous Armenia
Party and whether it will throw its support to President Serzh
Sargsyan next February, as it said it would yet in 2011.
A new wave of speculation arose following a provocative statement by
Prime Minister Tigran Sargsyan Wednesday.
During a briefing at the National Assembly the premier did not rule
out a possible signing of a new memorandum in support of the incumbent
president Serzh Sargsyan’s candidacy, reminding at the same time that
the existing document signed 18 months ago is still in force.
`Political developments in Armenia are so fast-paced that nothing can
be ruled out. At the moment we have a document at hand signed by three
parties- the Republican (RPA), Prosperous Armenia (PAP) and Rule of
Law (OEK), by which they have committed to supporting the incumbent
president in the next presidential election,’ he said.
It is not clear yet whether this was simply a reminder or pursued
other purposes. PAP has made no statements on the validity of that
memorandum, as it is no more part of the coalition and the only thing
remaining from the memorandum is `memories’. Party leader Gagik
Tsarukyan has offered no comments in this regard.
PAP today is viewed as the only powerful counterweight against the
ruling Republicans, and that’s the reason why Tsarukyan’s mysterious
silence of late has been given more value and interpretations than any
thought he has ever voiced.
`The main intrigue is around PAP. Will PAP nominate its own candidate
or support president Sargsyan’s candidacy? The answer is delayed and
the continuing silence suggests serious pressure on Tsarukyan and his
PAP. It’s hard to predict right now whether the attempts to break Mr.
Tsarukyan will be successful, because it didn’t work during the
parliamentary elections,’ says political analyst Alexander
Iskandaryan, heading Caucasus Institute.
The most persistently discussed option lately is that Tsarukyan is
aiming for the prime minister’s chair. If so, president Sargsyan does
not seem to be planning to sacrifice Tigran Sargsyan. Further, another
possible option – a compromise – came forth, that is establishing a
cabinet with two deputy-premiers and give one deputy prime minister’s
and two minister’s portfolios to Prosperous Armenia.
Premier Sargsyan indirectly confirmed the possibility of the second
option, when he said: `The Constitution provides for having one deputy
prime minister only, which is limiting and does not allow for having
deputy prime ministers coordinating ministers by spheres. That issue
is on our agenda and we are discussing it, but we haven’t talked about
definite terms and can’t say when that might happen’.
Many others, nonetheless, believe Tsarukyan does not need either the
prime-minister’s or minister’s posts, as he has had a chance to see
for himself that `in this totalitarian regime one can lose everything
at any moment’.
`Arrests of PAP-members prior to the parliamentary elections, the
recently launched so-called anti-corruption campaign, the main targets
of which have again become PAP-member ministers – all these are a
clear message that if he [Tsarukyan] makes a mistake, the ground will
slip from under his feet. In this case Tsarukyan either has to become
a permanent stooge or, as he enjoys high ratings, will have to try to
change the situation,’ says analyst Yervand Bozoyan.
He believes that Tsarukyan is `Armenia’s Ivanishvili, who will be able
to consolidate the new pole and bring in tangible changes in the
country’, said Bozoyan in reference to the recent change of power
following neighboring Georgia’s October 1st election.
Andranik Tevanyan, heading Politeconomy research center, shares the
opinion that Tsarukyan will not support president Sargsyan, grounding
it by the fact that the disagreement between PAP and RPA is `serious
and fundamental’.
`Those disagreements are not simply around distribution of posts, but
the country’s economic policy and structure. Serzh Sargsyan and his
team are today leading a Bolshevik policy of getting rid of kulaks
[rich peasants] and Tsarukyan, as a representative of Bourgeoisie, is
against building a one-oligarch economy and re-distribution of
property; today real oligarchy is at 26 Bagramyan street ( the
presidential residence), the economic policy of which has only one
purpose – to concentrate the country’s entire financial-economic
resource, and Tsarukyan can’t help but be concerned with it,’ Tevanyan
told ArmeniaNow.
He is convinced that the current authorities’ `reproduction is
Armenia’s defeat’, which might have consequences as gloomy as `losing
the state’.
Expert in political and electoral technologies Armen Badalyan calls
elections in Armenia a `large-scale financial event’ and believes the
outcome is `determined outside the country’.
`Decisions of foreign geopolitical centers (Russia or the West) will
play a decisive role in our presidential elections and that’s the
reason that some four months before the elections none of the major
players have put forward their candidacy. Normally in a proper
democratic country it would look strange, but here the sides are
waiting for the clarified positions of geopolitical centers,’ Badalyan
told ArmeniaNow.
Experts believe that in a half-sovereign country such as Armenia,
society has no power of achieving a turnover, and external political
decisions are the crucial ones.
`The brightest example is the Ukraine, where Timoshenko with the
support from the West carried out a coup d’etat, and then went to
prison as soon as she lost that support. The revolutions in Georgia,
Moldova and other countries are also the result of geopolitical
decisions,’ says Badalyan and concludes `RPA that enjoys the
majority’s support and does not care about PAP’s approval; it is
simply waiting for the clarified positions of geopolitical centers’.