Author: Badalian Vardan

ARMENIAN PRESIDENT RECEIVED ALAIN DELON

15:30, 18 December, 2012

YEREVAN, DECEMBER 18, ARMENPRESS: Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan
received world famous French actor Alain Delon who is going to
be present in “Happy New Year, Moms” film’s Armenian premiere due
in Armenia on December 18. As Presidential press service informed
Armenpress, President Sargsyan welcomed the quest in our country,
stating with gratitude the characters created by the actor enjoy
great recognition and popularity among Armenians. “Armenian- French
worm relations keep developing ” Sargsyan stated.

French renowned actor thanked President Serzh Sargsyan for the worm
reception; underscoring France has always been careful towards Armenia,
bears respectful attitude towards Armenian cultural and history and
distinct position towards 1915 Armenian Genocide recognition and
condemnation issue. The famous actor noted he followed with interest
the meeting launched among French President Francois Olland and Serzh
Sargsyan over a month before and former President Nicolas Sarkozy
visit to Armenia. Prominent actor accepted Serzh Sargsyan invitation
to again come to Armenia.

TRAFFICKING CASES GROW IN NUMBER IN ARMENIA

TERT.AM
18.12.12

Girls are brought from Armenia’s provinces to Yerevan being subjected
to sexual exploitation, Davit Tumasyan, member of a task group
affiliated to trafficking in human beings affairs council said today.

Addressing the conference on fighting against trafficking organized by
the Foreign Ministry and International Migration Organization Armenia
office, he said the exploitation with the engagement in burglary,
mainly the male children, is also manifestation of trafficking.

“As to external trafficking, it is necessary to note that our citizens
are mainly being exploited in the United Arab Emirates, Turkey and
Russia. They are sexually exploited mainly in Turkey,” he said.

Tumasyan noted that the sphere is legislatively regulated but there
are some flaws, mainly relating to the social assistance, compensation
provided to the victims of trafficking.

The expert said the number of cases of trafficking have grown in
number.

“The number of external traffic victims in 2009 was 34, in 2010 – 60.

They are the victims who have passed through the criminal cases,”
he said.

According to the recently published data during the first half of
2012, 16 criminal cases were filed, with eight new defendants. New 15
victims have been found within the framework of the mentioned cases,
8 of whom are sexually exploited women.

HEAD OF ARFD PARLIAMENTARY FACTION: PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IN ARMENIA SHOULD LEAD TO CHANGE OF POWER, OTHERWISE IT WILL BE SENSELESS PARTICIPATING IN IT

ARMINFO
Tuesday, December 18, 14:20

Presidential election in Armenia should lead to change of power,
otherwise ARFD’s participation in it will be senseless, Armen
Rustamyan, Head of the ARFD Parliamentary Faction, told media, Tuesday.

In response to ArmInfo’s question, Rustamyan said that the final
decision on participation in the presidential election will be adopted
at the Supreme Assembly of the party on December 25. Rustamyan
considers the talks on his nomination for president groundless:
“Such decisions are adopted by the Supreme Assembly and I cannot make
any forecasts now.”

He said that participation in the upcoming election is not an end
in itself for ARFD. Asked if the candidate of the ruling Republican
Party has any serious rival, Rustamyan said that RPA is using all
the state levers and in such situation it is at least naive speaking
of competition. “Political forces must have equal opportunities,
but they haven’t, ” he said.

MOST PEOPLE ARE NOT FAMILIARIZED WITH THE GOVERNMENT PROGRAMME

Monday, 17 December 2012 15:35

Most readers of Karabakh-open.info are not familiarized with the
2012-2017 activity programme of the NKR Government. This is proved
by the polling data.

To the question “Are you familiarized with the 2012-2017 NKR government
programme?” 70.8 % readers of the Armenian version of the website
answered negatively. 16.7 % of the readers are familiarized with the
programme while 12.5 % of them take no interest in it.

82.4 % of readers of the Russian version of the website are not
acquainted with the government programme, only 5.9 % are and 11.8 %
of them take no interest in it.

ON THE ROLE OF THE ENERGY FACTOR IN THE KARABAKH CONFLICT: NEW RE-FRAMING?
Sergei Minasyan

17.12.2012

Ph.D. (History), Head of the Department of the Political Researches of
the Caucasus Institute Back In 1994, in the period of completion of
active military actions in Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, Heidar Aliyev,
while preparing for signing “Contract of the Century” with the
western oil companies on the development of hydrocarbon resources in
Azerbaijani offshore areas of the Caspian Sea, expressed a hope that
this factor would play an essential role in the development of the
processes round the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict in the way advantageous
for Azerbaijan.

Today the situation has not changed much as compared to the one in
1990s. Currently considerable profits from the development of Caspian
energy carriers (oil and gas) are still considered to be the main
financial and economic as well as geopolitical resource of Azerbaijan
in the realization of its policy in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

Petrodollars offer hope to the military and political leadership of
Azerbaijan that it is still possible to gain principle advantage
in military and technical sphere, to stir up the armaments race,
to fund big regional projects bypassing Armenia, to invest or even
make open corruptive financial injections to the third countries and
take other measures in order to attain advantageous for them change
of the processes round Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and to compel the
Armenian parties to make one-sided concessions. At the same time the
oil factor, in the opinion of official Baku, raises the geopolitical
significance of Azerbaijan in the eyes of the regional or even global
actors. But, to all appearance, the role of the oil and gas factor
in the Karabakh strategy of Azerbaijan in the mid-term perspective
can essentially shatter.

Several years ago we turned to the issue of the oil factor in
Karabakh conflict1. But the recent developments, connected with the
considerable decline of the Azerbaijani oil production (as compared
to the previously stated figures and terms), as well as postponing
of putting into operation of the main stage 2 of Azerbaijani gas
production, demand definite revision of this issue in the new reality.

On October 12, 2012 the president of Azerbaijan sharply criticized
the operator of the main Azerbaijani Azeri-Chirag-Guneshli (ACG)
oil field – AIOC (Azerbaijani International Operating Company),
headed by British Petroleum. According to the Azerbaijani president in
consequence of consortium’s blunders the oil production at this oil
field has sharply declined in recent years; as a result Azerbaijan
received $8 billion less profit than it was due2. The oil production
in the Azerbaijani sector of the Caspian Sea has been declining
for two years (since 2010), but for the first time Azerbaijani
leadership so sharply reacted to this tendency. The fact that next
year presidential elections will be held in Azerbaijan where Ilham
Aliyev will be nominated for the third presidential term without any
alternative candidate, attaches additional intrigue to this situation.

It seems that the factor of essential decline of oil and gas revenues
will have a serious impact on both financial-economic situation and
prospects of political stability in Azerbaijan which are mainly based
on the inflow of money received from the export of Azerbaijani oil
and gas.

Overall estimate of the Azerbaijani offshore oil and gas reserves
varies, depending on the political affiliations of the researchers,
and it is very difficult to form a fair presentation of the real
hydrocarbon potential of Azerbaijan. At least it should be mentioned
that the oil and gas reserves in the Azerbaijani water area of the
Caspian Sea are though exhaustible but rather considerable. But the
policy of Azerbaijan based on the oil and gas revenues faces serious
problems.

First of all, oil and gas are not a guarantee of either stable economic
growth or political development of the exporter countries, especially
if these countries have only a brief experience of state-building and
take first steps on the way of democratic transformations and formation
of the civil society institutions. Not coincidentally such term as
“oil curse” exists; it rather exactly shows the level of economic,
social and political problems and difficulties when the stream of
money from selling the natural resources befalls on the country. These
problems are the dark side of the facade of the economic prosperity
of the oil-exporting countries.

There are dozens of examples of the countries in the history, in the
fate of which the availability of rich natural resources (first of all
oil and gas) played an perfidious or even fateful role – from Nigeria
to Mexico, from the Spanish Habsburg Empire (in this case cheep silver
from the mines in Latin America) to the USSR. The excessive dependence
of the Azerbaijani economy on the revenues from the energy resources
(which, according to different estimations, directly or indirectly
constitutes up to 85% of the budget receipts and 92% of export) sale
constitute very serious and chronic menace to the stable social and
economic and political development of the country.

On the other hand today it becomes obvious that previously stated by
the Azerbaijani leadership volume of the oil reserves was essentially
exaggerated. By the estimations of a number of experts the main
developer of the hydrocarbons in the Azerbaijani water area of
the Caspian Sea – AIOC – reached the peak of the oil production at
Azeri-Chirag-Guneshli oil field. And this happened in 2010 and not in
2013-2015 as it was mentioned before by the Azerbaijani authorities
(and was not questioned by the British Petroleum – main operator
of the AIOC). Currently oil production in Azerbaijan (taking into
consideration the reserves of the SOCAR) will fluently decline by
10% annually from more than 50 million tons of oil in 2010 (about 45
million tons in 2011) to the level of annual oil production of the
20 million tons in 2018-20193. The AIOC plans to stabilize somehow
the oil production decline at the expense of putting into operation
at the end of 2013 and at the beginning of 2014 of “Western Chirag”
new platform at the same ACG oil field, but its active productive
life will be 4-5 years and it will only allow to preserve a minimum
level of commercial development at this oil field till 2020.

Naturally, Azerbaijan also has a potential on building up its energy
resources production capabilities after the start up of the stage
2 of its main gas field – Shah Deniz. But unenviable fate of highly
publicized “Nabucco” gas pipeline (which has been formerly considered
as the main infrastructure project of supplying Azerbaijani gas
to the European market) proves that the publicized gas reserves in
Azerbaijan are considerably overrated. Potential revenue from the
export of the gas from this field can never compensate the declining
volume of receipts from the export of the oil.

By the most optimistic estimations in case of a start up of the
commercial development of the stage 2 of Shah Deniz, the gas export
from this gas field will not exceed 8-10 billion m3 per year. Taking
into consideration theoretically maximum gas prices, the revenue from
the development of that gas field will not exceed $4 billion annually
which is incomparable with current volume of receipts from oil import
by Azerbaijan (approximately $15-20 billion per year). Let us remind
you that currently the maximum market price for the gas exported
by Azerbaijan is paid by “Gazprom” – about $220-240 per 1 thousand
m3, meanwhile Azerbaijan exports gas to Turkey and Georgia at much
lower price.

At the same time it should be taken into consideration that by 2017
when it is planned to start the gas supply from the stage 2 of Shah
Deniz (it is not excluded that by that time the project will not
be realized) the situation on the gas market can be essentially
adjusted and, as a result, the price for the Azerbaijani gas will
become considerably lower. For example, according to the Turkish
Minister of Energy and Natural Resources Taner Yildiz, in 2013-2014
Turkish energy BOTAS Company plans to renounce Take or Pay principle
in gas purchase from the stage 1 of Shah-Deniz gas field, which gave
preferential terms to the Azerbaijani party4.Besides new volumes of
liquefied and shale gas may appear at the European market which can
also result in the cut in price at the global gas market.

Thus, though in the years to come oil and gas factor will preserve it
role of a main financial and geopolitical resource, which provides
implementation of the Azerbaijani policy in the Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict, nevertheless, its possibilities and significance will
be gradually declining. Of course it will have its impact on the
approaches of official Baku to the Karabakh conflict and these
approaches may undergo serious adjustments. However this factor may
manifest itself in the next two years when the tendency of a declining
curve in the Azerbaijani gas production will become even more obvious.

1 oÅÒCÅÊ íEÎÁÓÑÎ, îÅÆÔÑÎÏÊ ÆÁËÔÏÒ × ËÁÒÁÂÁÈÓËÏÊ ÓÔÒÁÔÅCEE aÚÅÒÂÁÊÄOÁÎÁ:
EÌE ?

,
25.04.2008.

2 , ,
11.10.2012.

3 Rasizade, Alec, “Azerbaijan’s Chances in the Karabakh
Conflict”, Harvard International Review, 18 January 2011,

4 , úÅÒËÁÌÏ,
,
24.10.2012.

“Globus” analytical journal, #11, 2012

Return Another materials of author IRANIAN CRISIS AND “IMMEDIATE”
DETERRENCE IN THE KARABAKH CONFLICT[16.10.2012] PARLIAMENTARY
ELECTIONS: GEORGIA AHEAD OF THE CONTROVERSIAL EVENT[24.09.2012]
THE DYNAMICS AND TENDENCY OF THE RELATIONS BETWEEN THE REPUBLIC OF
ARMENIA AND THE US: CONCEPTUAL ANALYSIS [01.09.2011] POSSIBILITIES
OF INTERNATIONAL PEACEKEEPING IN NAGORNO-KARABAKH CONFLICT: MYTHS AND
REALITIES[14.02.2011] ARMENIAN – GEORGIAN RELATIONS AFTER “FIVE DAYS”
WAR[15.10.2009] ARMENIA-TURKEY: NEW POLITICAL PHASE? [14.05.2009]

AZERBAIJAN ADMITS REMAINED ARMENIANS OBLIGED TO CHANGE SURNAMES

news.am
December 18, 2012 | 00:11

BAKU. – The number of Armenians living in Azerbaijan increases, at
least Azerbaijani statesmen claim this. The allegedly 30,000 Armenians
living throughout Azerbaijan, is not so astonishing already, however,
the number turns to be true only for the capital city.

According to Vesti.Az, a group of 30 Armenians turned to the Migration
Center of Azerbaijan recently and asked to be issued with an identity
card.

“Citizens of the Armenian nationality have been issuing identity cards
or passports for a long time. It is no more news. They are citizens
of Azerbaijan just like all and there is no logic in refusing them,”
the Ministry of Interior Affairs statement reads.

However, Azerbaijan admits that Armenians remained in Azerbaijan were
forced to change their Armenian surnames.

L’EUROPE APPELLE L’ARMENIE A TENIR DES ELECTIONS DEMOCRATIQUES
Laetitia

armenews.com
mardi 18 decembre 2012

Les ministres des Affaires etrangères de la Suède, de la Pologne et de
la Bulgarie ont appele au bon deroulement de l’election presidentielle
en Armenie lors d’une visite conjointe a Erevan.

Les trois hommes ont rencontre le President Serge Sarkissian,
le Premier ministre Tigran Sarkissian et le ministre des Affaires
etrangères Edouard Nalbandian et ont souligne l’importance du vote
de 2013 pour la signature d’un accord entre l’Armenie et l’UE.

” Nous allons regarder de très près ce vote afin de s’assurer que votre
gouvernement s’est engage a l’amelioration du processus electoral “,
a declare le ministre bulgare, Nikolaï Mladenov.

Les fonctionnaires de l’UE ont souligne ces derniers mois que
l’approfondissement des relations de l’Armenie avec le bloc des 27 dans
le cadre du programme du Partenariat oriental de l’Union europeenne
est subordonne a la conduite des elections.

Les sources officielles armeniennes ne font aucune mention specifique
des declarations de Sikorski, de Mladenov et de Carl Bildt. Le bureau
de presse de Sarkissian a affirme que les deux parties ont salue
les progrès realises dans les negociations en cours sur l’accord
d’association prevu par le Partenariat oriental.

Nalbandian espère que le prochain sommet de l’UE concernant le
Partenariat oriental aura lieu en Lituanie, dans la capitale de
Vilnius en novembre 2013.

Sikorski a egalement annonce que l’Armenie et l’Union europeenne
vont signer lundi un accord sur la facilitation des règles de l’UE
en matière de visas pour les ressortissants armeniens, element majeur
de l’accord d’association future.

mardi 18 decembre 2012, Laetitia ©armenews.com

THE APPLE TREE BLOSSOMS IN THE FALL – A NEW READ FOR CHRISTMAS

Sacramento Bee, CA
Dec 17 2012

By SJHCommunications

NEW YORK, December 17, 2012 — /PRNewswire/ — -Stories of a young
Armenian woman and her journey through life -Unique insights into Iran,
Islam and Armenian culture -A memoir, a history lesson, a love story

Author Armineh Ohanian grew up as a young Armenian woman in Iran. Now
she draws on her experiences in a new novel, The Apple Tree Blossoms
in the Fall, which follows the story of Carineh who confronts a series
of struggles taking her from Iran to Europe and to the US. (Photo:
)

As she faces the upheaval of leaving her homeland and the many trials
of marriage, Carineh discovers that impossible situations can resolve
themselves in the most unexpected of ways: including apple trees
that miraculously blossom out of season to provide food for her
starving family.

Carineh’s journey begins as she spends her first eleven years in a
small, strict Islamic town in Iran where her father runs his thriving
export business in a busy bazaar and entertains guests extensively,
including a young mullah called Khomeini. It moves swiftly through
short interconnected episodes spiced by the unfolding events of the
night when Carineh finds her one true love.

As life unfurls, Carineh discovers that husband Caro has deceived her
about his true identity; her family tumbles from comfort to poverty
when her Father dies following baptism in freezing Hamadan waters;
her reluctance to wear the veil convinces her to leave Iran at the
onset of the Islamic revolution, and, as a young mother she and her
two teenage children desperately seek to board the last Pan Am flight
out of Tehran.

With resilience and humor, Carineh travels the four corners of the
world with her husband and children, finally finding herself settled on
the shores of Westhampton Beach, New York. Each episode is engagingly
narrated with warm affection in rich, Armenian storytelling tradition.

Comments Armineh Ohanian, “For some reason, writing this book was
much harder than writing Nine Years to Freedom. Probably, because the
theme was about the life experiences of an Armenian woman like myself.

However, I enjoyed the work, it reminded me of my own life back
in Iran, both as a child and a young girl. At some point during my
writing, I laughed like mad, and I cried bitterly while composing
certain other chapters. I am happy that the book is already appealing
to women internationally.”

Armineh Ohanian will be participating in Oxfam’s International Women’s
Day on March 8, 2013, reading extracts from her novel at the invitation
of Oxford University.

Extract: Shattered Hopes…

To me, Caro was perfect and the best fiancé one could ask for. I found
him to be gallant, charming, handsome, sexy, adventurous, outspoken,
open-minded, and fun. Like me, he loved music and going to cinemas
and parties. What’s more, he accepted my family as his own because he
had no brothers or sisters. Before meeting me, he would spend most of
his time at the movies or at his Armenian and Russian friends’ houses.

Every day he came directly to our house after work. Now and then
he even slept at our place during Iranian weekends, which began on
Thursday afternoons and ended on Friday nights.

Unfortunately, my happiness and hopes tumbled down the day after our
engagement party…

Reviewers have commented:

“This true story is recounted through the eyes of a truly international
woman. She opened my heart and mind to the culture and geography of
a part of the world that dominates our politics today. It broadens
its scope as this courageous and charming woman lives her life as a
mother, wife and working woman”

“Armineh brings a lovely, graphic and rather innocent description of
life in a part of the world that is now totally different”

“Her story-telling is wonderfully interwoven with acute observations
and an endearing sense of humour throughout”

Published by Lazy Day Publishing, The AppleTree Blossoms in the Fall
is available from Amazon at ;
. For a complimentary
taste of the novel, please click here for Chapters 25 and 35

Notes to Editors:

Please contact us if you would like to interview Armineh Ohanian,
or require her biography or photo.

About the Author: Born in Iran, from Armenian origin, Armineh Ohanian
has lived in Europe and the United States since 1962. She published her
first storybook for children in Tehran at the age of fifteen. In August
21, 2012, Armineh published her first novel “Dreaming of America”, now
known as “Nine Years to Freedom”. She has since published two volumes
of children’s story books from her “The Talking Animals” series.

Recently, she has completed volume three – co-authored with her
thirteen yearâ~@~Pold grandson, Alec Ohanian. She is now busy writing a
memoir called “Letters from Abu Dhabi.” Armineh lives in Westhampton
with her husband and three cats – her writing companions. She is
passionate about writing, reading novels and playing tennis.

For more about Armineh Ohanian:

Author’s Den: Facebook:
Please contact: Sarah Hazell
or Maria van Vlodrop [email protected] +44(0)9700-227-200
(UK) +1-516-302-3072 (US)

SERZH SARGSYAN OUTLINES TOP PRIORITIES OF ARMENIA’S FOREIGN POLICY FOR NEXT 5 YEARS

APA
Dec 17 2012
Azerbaijan

Baku. Victoria Dementieva ~V APA. At the extraordinary congress
of the ruling Republican Party, Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan
outlined the top priorities of the country’s foreign policy over the
next 5 years. APA reports quoting ~SNovosti Armenia~T that Armenia
will focus on the issues of enhancing foreign security components,
peaceful settlement of Nagorno-Karabakh conflict on the basis of
the principle of self-determination of nations, expanding Armenia’s
involvement in the international political and economic security
systems and processes, Sargsyan said.

The list of priorities also covers the issues of activating “Armenian
genocide” recognition at the international level, protection of the
Armenian cultural heritage, strengthening relations with Russia,
expansion and growth of the partnership with the USA, continuing the
policy of rapprochement with Europe.

BAKU AND YEREVAN URGED TO END NAGORNO-KARABAKH CONFLICT

Europolitics.info
Dec 17 2012

By Lenaïc Vaudin d’Imecourt | Monday 17 December 2012

The European Union held two Cooperation Councils meetings, on 17
December, with Armenia and Azerbaijan, calling on both countries to
put an immediate end to the Nagorno Karabakh conflict that has been
opposing them despite a ceasefire signed in 1994.

“The EU reaffirmed that the status quo is unacceptable and that the
solution of this conflict remains a top priority,” the Council said
in its conclusions of the 13th EU-Azerbaijan Cooperation Council. The
EU also expressed concerns over incidents on the frontlines and urged
the sides to maintain stability on the ground and to “refrain from
aggressive, belligerent statements and actions that would increase
tension”.

On a more positive note, the EU expressed satisfaction with the ongoing
negotiations on an association agreement with Baku and underlined
the need to accelerate their pace. The Union welcomed the start of
negotiations for the signature of visa facilitation and readmission
agreements. The Council encouraged Azerbaijan to step up reforms in
the framework of the Eastern Partnership, in particular with regard
to the preparation and conduct of presidential elections scheduled
in October 2013.

As for Yerevan, the EU agreed the same day to the signing of a visa
facilitation agreement, which will make it easier and cheaper for
Armenian citizens to get short-stay EU visas of no more than 90 days
per period of 180 days. The agreement – by which the UK, Ireland
and Denmark are not bound – will now be transferred to the European
Parliament for its consent. It will enter into force on the first day
of the second month following the date on which the parties notify
each other that the internal procedures have been completed.