Author: Badalian Vardan

NARCOTIC SUPERHIGHWAYS: THE TOP 5 ROUTES FOR DRUG TRAFFICKING

15:37, February 25, 2013

1. “The Balkan Route”: Afghanistan -> Iran -> Turkey -> Southeast
Europe -> Western Europe (Heroin, 105 metric tons)

Of the 105 metric tons that embarks on this route, only 37%, ends
up in Europe. The rest is diverted from Iran to the Caucauses, or
toward Africa.

Trends in heroin use indicate that the flow along this route is
declining, as more of the supply flows toward the coastal markets of
Africa. The number of heroin users in Africa increased by 54% between
2004 and 2008, according to the UNODC, which fears that a rise in IV
drug use there could worsen an already severe HIV/AIDS epidemic.

2. “The Southern Route”: Afghanistan -> Pakistan -> SE Asia (Heroin,
150 metric tons)

Afghanistan supplies 80 percent of the world’s opium, and thus, 80
percent of its heroin. Almost half the opium cultivated in Afghanistan
is trafficked through Pakistan, but Pakistan itself has few heroin
users. The country tends to stick to funneling the drug through its
territory, reaping the cash rewards of that trade.

Pakistani traffickers operate a number of direct air (and sea)
trafficking routes to Europe, according to the UNODC, mostly to the
United Kingdom and the Netherlands.

3. “The Northern Route”: Afghanistan -> Central Asia -> Russia ->
Western Europe (95 tons)

The largest national market for Afghan heroin is the Russian
Federation, and that market has rapidly expanded since the dissolution
of the Soviet Union. Reports indicate that Russia is there heroin is
now doing its worst damage, including through the spread of HIV.

4. Andean region -> Europe (Cocaine, 60 metric tons)

Although cocaine use appears to be growing in developing countries,
the vast bulk of the production is destined for two major overseas
markets: North America (6.2 million users in 2008) and Europe (4 to
5 million users).

5. Andean region -> USA (Cocaine, 140 metric tons)

North America accounted for more than 40 percent of global cocaine
consumption in 2007 and 2008, while the countries in the EU and
European Free Trade Association accounted for over 25 percent of
consumption.

PROSPEROUS ARMENIA CALLS ON POLITICAL FORCES TO FORM AGENDA OF LARGE-SCALE POLITICAL REFORMS IN THE COUNTRY

arminfo
Monday, February 25, 14:21

Post-election processes in Armenia show that the public have no
confidence in the election system, says the statement by the Prosperous
Armenia Party Political Board provided to ArmInfo.

The statement reads that the public discontent is a result of unsettled
problems in the country and the main responsibility for such situation
is on the power branches.

Prosperous Armenia Party believes that the citizens of Armenia have
a right to protest against violation of their election right. At the
same time, the Party calls on the authorities to refrain from use of
force with regard to participants in peaceful rallies and urged the
protesters to observe the legislation.

“Realizing the volume and complicacy of the problems and challenges
the country has faced, Prosperous Armenia calls on the influential
political forces to form an agenda of immediate large-scale democratic,
political and economic reforms,” the document reads.

The party expressed readiness to provide all its resources for
settlement of the given task. To recall, Prosperous Armenia neither
nominated its own candidate for president nor supported any other
candidate.

Raffi Hovannisian, who got the second place at the Feb 18 presidential
election, has been rallying in Yerevan and in the regions against
the election outcome since February 20.

To recall, Raffi Hovannisian received 36.75% of votes and lost the Feb
18 presidential election to the incumbent president Serzh Sargsyan,
who received 58.64% of votes.

USD PRICES FOR IMPORTED GOODS AND SERVICES IN ARMENIA UP 2.2% IN Q4

YEREVAN, February 26. /ARKA/. Prices in USD for imported goods and
services in Armenia rose by 2.2% in Q4 from the same period a year
earlier, according to the Central Bank’s report

“Implementation of CBA monetary and credit policy in Q4 2012.”

This index is said to drop by 4.5% in Q3 2012 from a year earlier. The
report states the hike in 4Q prices was due to dollar devaluation
amid U.S. tax and budget issues in Q4.

Prices for imported goods climbed by 2% in Q4 (year over year) :
prices for consumer goods and raw/food goods increased by 3% and 1.9%
respectively. Prices for imported services rose by 3%.

This upturn in cost of imported goods and services was instigated by
inflation in Armenia last year.

Consumer price index upped amid high dollar inflation in Armenia’s
trading partner countries (Russia and Belarus). Inflation at raw
materials and food market appeared due to significant increase in
global crops prices.

Prices in AMD for imported goods, included into the consumer basket,
rose by average 7.6% from a year earlier. It happened amid 2.2% rise
in USD prices for imported goods and devaluation of dram/dollar rate
by 6.3% within the reported period. ($1-408.1). -0-

EVEN CATHOLICOS SHOULD NOT CONGRATULATE TOO EARLY – RAFFI HOVANNISIAN

YEREVAN.- Former presidential candidate, leader of Heritage party
Raffi Hovannisian has arrived in Etchmiadzin to meet with voters.

“Count the closed doors – the doors of people who left Armenia to
earn their living in Russia and the U.S. We will work to turn Armenia
into a country where people return,” he said, thanking residents of
Etchmiadzin for their support during the February 18 presidential
elections.

Hovannisian has not recognized his defeat and is holding mass protests
calling to announce election results invalid.

He said Putin, the U.S. and France, as well as Catholicos of
All Armenians and Aram I of the Holy See of Cilicia, hurried to
congratulate incumbent presidents.

“They have to deal with spiritual issues. It is not an issue of
Serzh Sargsyan or Raffi Hovannisian, not Russia or America. It is
the issue of people, and they returned the power,” he said.

Armenia’s Central Electoral Committee confirmed on Monday a protocol
on final results of the February 18 presidential elections. Incumbent
president Serzh Sargsyan won elections in the first round, getting
58.64 percent (861,373 votes). Head of Heritage Party Raffi Hovannisian
was the second with 36.75 percent of voters (539,693).

NEARLY 50 APARTMENTS AT TOTAL 1.5 MLN EUROS TO BE BUILT IN ARMENIA’S DILIJAN BY NOVEMBER

YEREVAN, February 26. /ARKA/. The National Social Housing Association
(ASBA) Foundation intends to construct 50-52 apartments in Armenia’s
Dilijan town till November within the framework of its “Social
apartments in Dilijan” project first round, ASBA executive director
Ara Nazinyan said Tuesday.

The estimated cost of the first round is 1.3-1.5 million euros, he
added. The project is financed by DIGH (Dutch International Guarantees
for Housing).

“The beneficiaries will be the residents of Dilijan with low and middle
income, as well as temporary residents who would like to permanently
stay there. They will be able to get dwellings at special low rental
fees,” Nazinyan said at “Social and affordable housing in Armenia:
challenges and opportunities” news conference in Yerevan.

According to him, ASBA social dwelling program started in March 2010
in Armenia.

Over the last three years, ASBA has been developing different programs
related to social dwelling construction, researching the spheres,
organizing events directed to skills improvement.

“The project embraces six regions of the country (Tavush, Syunik,
Aragatsotn, Lori, Kotayk, Ararat) and Yerevan,” Nazinyan clarified.

Within the framework of the first round, the dwellings will be
constructed in the following towns : Hrazdan (48 apartments), Vanadzor
(80) and Ashtarak (50). He didn’t unveil the figures and dates around
this projects, just mentioning the project for Hrazdan had already
received financing and was ready for the launch.

ASBA National Social Housing Association, established in 2010, is an
Armenian non-profit foundation promoting quality and affordable housing
for low and middle income families in Armenia. ASBA Foundation has
been created as partnership between Armenian and Dutch stakeholders
in affordable housing. -0-

GLENDALE MARCH OF SOLIDARITY CONDEMNING ELECTION FRAUD IN ARMENIA

12:53 ~U 26.02.13

A March for Solidarity with Armenian people’s struggle was held in
Glendale on Sunday February 24, 2013. The objective of the March
was to bring awareness of the fraudulent election of February 18,
2013 in the Armenian communities of Los Angeles, CA.

About a hundred Armenians, adults and children, holding Armenian flags
and placards walked 8 blocks from the Armenian Apostolic Church to
the Consulate General of Armenia chanting “Armenia”, “Victory” and
“Raffi President”. In front of the Consulate, the following statement
was distributed to the people.

“Armenians of Southern California Demand Punishment of Voter
Fraudsters and Fair Recount of Armenia’s Presidential Ballots. The
recent presidential election in Armenia has once again demonstrated
the true face of the current Armenian regime. There is overwhelming
evidence of massive election fraud, which was carried out during
the Armenian Presidential Election on February 18, 2013, to skew the
overall election outcome in favor of incumbent Serzh Sargsyan.

We, Armenians born and raised in and outside of Armenia’s boundaries
and residing in Southern California, urge that until the consequences
of election fraud are eliminated and the numbers published by the
Central Electoral Commission in Armenia inspire confidence, everyone
should refuse to recognize Serzh Sargsyan as President-elect. We also
demand that Armenian citizens’ constitutional right to vote outside
Armenia is restored.”

One of the organizers of the March of Solidarity, Ara K. Manoogian,
a human rights activist and founder of ,
said in his address that the march will take place every Sunday until
either the outlined demands are met or Serzh Sargsyan admits defeat in
the Armenian presidential election of 2013. To continue the support
and solidarity of the Diaspora with the Armenian people of Armenia,
Manoogian called on the concerned citizens to participate in the
next march on March 3, 2013, which will start in front of St. Mary’s
Armenian Apostolic Church on Central Avenue at 12 pm and end in front
of the Armenian Consulate in Los Angeles.

UNE NOUVELLE USINE DE TRANSFORMATION DE VIANDE S’OUVRE EN ARMENIE

Le president Serge Sarkissian etait present lors de l’ouverture d’une
usine de transformation de viande a Erevan construit par la societe
NatFood avec le soutien de la banque de developpement et du commerce
de la mer Noire (BSTDB), la Banque Europeenne pour la reconstruction
et le developpement (BERD) et de la Banque VTB Armenie.

“L’usine de viande a recu des equipements modernes et une technologie
de pointe et va produire une large gamme de produits de viande de
qualite pour la consommation locale et l’exportation. Le lancement de
cette production permettra d’ameliorer la competitivite de l’industrie
de la viande en Armenie et la creation de nouveaux emplois ” a explique
la banque VTB (Armenie) dans un communique de presse.

mardi 26 fevrier 2013, Stephane ©armenews.com

VICE-PREMIER: IT INTRODUCTION IN ARMENIA’S PROVINCES TO SPUR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS INDUSTRY

YEREVAN, February 25. /ARKA/. Armenian Vice-Premier and Territorial
Administration Minister Armen Gevorgyan met with members of the
Winners’ Club of Presidential Educational Award and State Engineering
University of Armenia students today in Synopsys Armenia R&D Center.

Speaking at the meeting, Armen Gevorgyan expressed confidence that
introduction of information technology in Armenia’s provinces will
give a new impetus to development of this industry.

Addressing participants of the meeting, he said: “I hope that we will
have serious achievements through introducing and developing IT in
the regions through your knowledge and skills, which I believe will
also guarantee the growth of development in those locations.”

Synopsys Armenia Director Hovik Musayelyan, who is also the Chairman
of the Presidential Educational Award Committee, General Manager of
VivaCell-MTS Ralph Yirikian, President of the Union of Manufacturers
and Businessmen (Employers) of Armenia Arsen Ghazaryan, Member of the
Council of the Chamber of Control of the Republic of Armenia Lilit
Gevorgyan, Director of Unicomp Armen Baldryan and other honorary
guests attended the meeting.

“Today’s meeting with Armen Gevorgyan is very symbolic, because
we have worked together with Mr. Gevorgyan to bring the Annual
Educational Award of the President of the Republic of Armenia in IT
Sphere to fruition in 2005,” the press office quoted Hovik Musayelyan
as saying at the meeting. “The meeting is also important because,
as we all know, there are many challenges, issues and concerns, and
our homeland starts with bordering villages, districts, regions and
then only reaches to Yerevan.”

As always, the meeting was followed by a Q&A session. Traditionally,
Gevorgyan was presented with the Honorary Member Award and the Winners’
Club member emblem.

The club was founded on October 1, 2008, on Synopsys Armenia company’s
initiative, which was upheld by the President Serzh Sargsyan.

The club’s mission is to promote creation of education, science and
technology elite in Armenia and to ensure an effective platform for
development of IT industry in the country.

The presidential educational award in IT areas was instituted by the
second Armenian president, Robert Kocharyan, in 2005.

Synopsys Inc. entered Armenia’s market after signing a merger
agreement with Leda Design and Monterey Arset to set up Synopsys
Armenia. The company implements a number of educational programs
jointly with Armenian universities for 2-3rd year students who after
having a two-year course may be employed by the company. Synopsys
is headquartered in Mountain View, California, and has more than 60
offices located throughout North America, Europe, Japan, Asia and
India. -0–

Armenia and Azerbaijan still skirting war in Nagorno-Karabakh

Since the mid-1990s, the tiny territory of Nagorno-Karabakh with about
160,000 people has become a `frozen conflict’ zone despite rounds of
peace talks to settle its status.

Toronto Star
Wed Feb 20
2013

By: Olivia Ward, Foreign Affairs Reporter

In the 1990s, the aftershocks of the Soviet Union’s collapse kept on
coming in the fractious southern Caucasus.

Georgia fought two separatist wars. Russia battled Chechen rebels. And
the tiny disputed enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh exploded into conflict
between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

In the 21st century, two out of the three – Georgia and Chechnya –
went back to war. And this week – on the 25th anniversary of a vote
that launched two decades of unresolved ethnic strife in
Nagorno-Karabakh, a leading expert on the little known region says it
could be next.

`The risk may seem relatively low,’ said Thomas de Waal of the
Carnegie Endowment, `but the only thing that is stopping a war is the
leaders’ own calculation.’

Nagorno-Karabakh was shared for centuries by Muslim Azeris and
Christian Armenians. But after the First World War, the newly-formed
Soviet Union created a largely Armenian autonomous region of
Nagorno-Karabakh within the republic of Azerbaijan. In February 1988,
the local Soviet parliament for Karabakh voted to join Armenia,
touching off an inter-ethnic explosion.

Some 30,000 people died in conflicts that left ethnic Armenians as
victors, who occupied new territory in Azerbaijan to create a buffer
zone and corridor linking Karabakh and Armenia. The enclave was
declared an independent – but unrecognized – republic.

War broke out again, and pogroms of Armenians and Azeris forced both
groups to flee their homes. A Russian-brokered ceasefire ended the
fighting in 1994. But more than 1 million ethnic Azeris and Armenians
still cannot return home.

Since then, the tiny territory of about 160,000 people – one-fifth the
area of Nova Scotia – has become a `frozen conflict’ zone despite
rounds of peace talks to settle its status.

Meanwhile, said de Waal, Azerbaijan has become an economic oil giant
in the region, but with a democratic deficit. President Ilham Aliyev’s
regime is using its new-found wealth to equip and expand the army. It
is also ratcheting up tensions with anti-Armenian rhetoric.

In one of the most extreme cases, 75-year-old writer Akram Aylisli was
burnt in effigy for a book he wrote to heal relations between ethnic
Azerbaijanis and Armenians, and a pro-government party offered a
$13,000 bounty for cutting off his ear.

`Azerbaijan doesn’t want a compromise with people who `stole our
land,’ ‘ de Waal said last week at University of Toronto’s Munk
Centre. `It spends $4 billion a year on its army.’

As Karabakh Armenians see themselves losing the arms race, some favour
a `knockout blow’ against Azerbaijan before the point of no return is
reached.

`There’s also the possibility of an accidental war started along the
ceasefire line – one day someone could lob a mortar shell across it,’
said de Waal. In an uneasy neighbourhood that includes traditional
foes Iran, Turkey and Russia, a renewed conflict could have a ripple
effect.

Both sides routinely attend sporadic peace talks and say they want a
peace deal. But with Azerbaijan demanding a return of Karabakh, with
some autonomy, and Armenia insisting on independence, it’s unlikely to
happen soon.

`There are perfectly sensible plans for peace, but there have to be
basic levels of trust,’ de Waal said. `Now there’s a lack of both
trust and interaction.’

PFA Publishes the Results of Its Preliminary Analysis on Presidential
Election in Armenia

02/22/2013

Policy Forum Armenia (PFA) just concluded its preliminary analysis of
the official results of Armenia’s 2013 Presidential Election based on
the data provided by the Central Election Commission. Consistent with
eyewitness accounts and a large body of local media reports, our
analysis – which we summarize below – confirms the following:

· Presence of a significant and systemic effort to artificially
inflate the voter turnout (Figure 1, Panel 1
). The
deviations from the expected pattern (i.e., the normal or Gaussian
distribution) appear to be larger than those found in our analysis of
the 2008 Presidential Election (see Figure 1 in PFA’s Report on
`Armenia’s 2008 Presidential Election: Select Issues and Analysis

‘).

· This turnout-enhancing fraud was conducted on behalf of the
incumbent, Serge Sargsyan, and against the main challenger, Raffi
Hovannisian (Figure 1, Panels 1 and 2
). The
deviations from the expected pattern are massive and exceed the range
found during the 2008 election (see Figure 2 in PFA’s Report on
`Armenia’s 2008 Presidential Election: Select Issues and Analysis

‘).

· In addition to artificially inflating the voter turnout, votes cast
in favor of Raffi Hovannisian and other opposition candidates were
fraudulently assigned to Serge Sargsyan: for every 100 ballots cast in
polling stations with artificially high voter turnout, Serge Sargsyan
received 105 votes (as measured by the slope of the straight line
onFigure 2, Panel 1
).

· Voter turnout was inflated by ballot stuffing, among other means.
As shown on Figure 2, Panel 3
, the
number of invalid ballots declined asthe voter turnout increased, a
clear sign of ballot stuffing. This result contrasts with the findings
of the 2012 Parliamentary Election, where ballot stuffing was not
found to be a major factor (See PFA’s report on `Armenia’s 2012
Parliamentary Election

‘).

· There are indications that invalid ballots were counted in favor of
the incumbent (Figure 2, Panel 4
). The
share of votes assigned to Serge Sargsyan is larger in polling
stations where the ratio of ballots treated as `invalid’ is lower.

· There is strong evidence of vote-counting fraud in polling stations
in rural areas. The digit tests (Figure 3
) reveal
signs of human interference in voter counting (e.g., reassigning of
ballots from one candidate to another, etc.) as measured by a
significant deviation from the uniform distribution (of votes cast in
favor of two front-runners) in polling stations outside of Yerevan and
Gyumri.

All in all, we conclude that in polling stations not affected by
falsifications, the main opposition candidate, Raffi Hovannisian,
shows a lead of at least 4 percent of the vote. This, however, is
likely to be the lower bound of the difference between the two
front-runners, because of the extent of violations in favor of Serge
Sargsyan, as mentioned earlier.

This analysis challenges – in the strongest possible way – the
official version of the events, the statement of the OSCE-ODIHR
observer mission, and the reports in Western media outlets about the
extent of violations that took place on February 18, 2013.

Our results strongly indicate that the final outcome of February 2013
election was subject to massive manipulations and interference and did
not reflect the free will of the Armenian citizens.

They also call into question the role of foreign election observers in
the Armenian context, specifically their impartiality and ability to
detect election fraud that is becoming ever more sophisticated.

We strongly encourage Raffi Hovannisian and his supporters to
forcefully pursue either a system-wide recount of ballots (which would
undoubtedly reduce the share of the incumbent’s votes and lead to the
second round election) or a complete annulment of the election
outcome, as the only ways forward for the country and its people.

FULL REPORT with GRAPHS: