BLUNDERS ALL AROUND
Editorial, 22 September 2013
September 3, 2013 will go in history books as a day when Armenia was
publicly humiliated by Russia. Why did the protagonists of Yerevan’s
attempt to get close to the west-Armenia’s Serge Sarkissian and senior
European Union (EU) officials–not foresee the train wreck speeding
their way?
Seeing no future in aligning with a “backward”,
dictatorial,domineering, dead-end and business-as-usual
Russia, Sarkissian wanted to align-politically, commercially and
culturally-with the west. He incredibly believed that he could do so
while retaining Armenia’s military alliance (meaning protection)
with the east. Meanwhile, the EU bureaucrats nonchalantly and
incomprehensibly assumed the Russia bear would play dead as Armenia
tried to drift from Moscow’s sphere of influence.
It’s no secret that since the end of the Second World War the west has
been encircling the USSR/Russia. With the demise of the Soviet Union,
the western borders of Russia was shut tight and an opening in the
Caucasus and the Central Asian “stans” became even more important
to Russia’s geopolitical interests. Russia “loss” of Georgia further
increased Armenia’s importance to Russia, especially since Azerbaijan
(“one people two nations” with NATO-member Turkey) is eager to send
the Russians packing.
There was no way Russia would have allowed Armenia to slip into
Europe’s embrace. To make Armenia even more vulnerable to Russia’s
suffocating hug, several realities about the Armenian condition should
be considered: blockaded by two hostile Turkic republics-one of them
incessantly threatening Armenia-Yerevan needs Moscow. It would take
Turkey’s huge army a mere few hours to swallow Armenia lock, stock
and Medzamor. Meanwhile, petrostate Azerbaijan is flexing its muscles,
thanks to nonstop weapons imports from at least 18 countries.
Armenia is also vulnerable to Russian economic pressure. Russia is,
by far, Armenia’s biggest export market. Russia owns most of Armenia’s
economic assets…and hundreds of thousand Armenians, who work in
Russia, send billions of dollars in remittances to their homeland.
Still with economics: While Armenia was sending love notes to EU and
Russia was putting on the economic screws on Yerevan, Brussels didn’t
hint at any economic aid to alleviate Armenia’s economic crisis.
Despite the above unpromising scenario, Panglossian Sarkissian
continued his courtship of the EU. (He also wouldn’t make public the
text of Armenia’s agreement with the EU. Critics said he didn’t want
to reveal EU’s negative stance toward liberated Artsakh).
After sending messages-through Russian think tanks and Russophile
Armenian journalists-Putin pulled out the big stick. Sarkissian had
to be brought to his senses before Armenia signed the EU Eastern
Partnership Agreement in mid-November in Vilnius, Lithuania.
Despite serving as a secret agent (1974 to 1991), Putin is not a subtle
man. He promptly sold $4 billion worth of weapons to Baku-his “ally’s”
belligerent foe. Then his foreign minister–Sergey Lavrov–dropped
hints which could be interpreted as Moscow’s support for Azerbaijan
sovereignty over Nagorno-Karapagh. And for good measure, Putin
increased the price of fuel he sells to Armenia.
Perhaps the Siberian Tiger-Whisperer was hoping the resulting price
rises would create political turmoil which would topple Sarkissian.
Pollyanna Sarkissian got the message. In early September he ate humble
pie and announced Armenia would join Putin’s Eurasia club. Goodbye
to Eurofication.
Sarkissian was the creative “brain” of this farce or Greek
tragedy-depending on one’s view. He ignored facts which are known even
high school students in Armenia. Armenia’s geopolitical situation
is such that it can’t survive without Russia. Armenia’s northern
neighbor-Georgia-is unreliable. Its southern neighbor-Iran-is
considered a pariah by the west and is under western economic and
political lockdown.
But Sarkissian is not the only party who miscalculated grievously.
What were the EU officials thinking when they began their courtship
of Armenia? Did they think Armenia would be allowed to slip out of
Russia’s shadow? And as the signing of the Partnership Agreement
got closer, why didn’t the EU make confidence-building political and
economic gestures to Armenia? While there were reports that Armenian
products were not up to scratch for the EU markets, there was no
encouraging word from Brussels.
After Armenia’s house of cards collapsed, to save face Sarkissian
kept mumbling that Armenia’s European Dream was not over. Meanwhile,
a senior EU official promised: “We definitely have not given up on
Armenia and the Armenian people.” The EU would not abandon Armenia.
When—and how many times–have Armenians heard similar empty and
hypocritical words, from the west?
In what must be the understatement of the year, the secretary general
of the European Friends of Armenia said that he believed Armenia’s
decision to join the Customs Union “was not a free choice.” Ahem.
Finally, there’s Putin. While his country depends dangerously on
the export of a single product, Putin has unrealistic ambitions
of reviving the truncated remains of the Soviet Union into a super
political-economic-military bloc. To realize his feeble dream, he
has dragged in two states (Kazakhstan where 24% of the population is
Russian) and Belarus to his bloc: the latter through blackmail.
Russia is in disarray. Corruption, rampant alcoholism, declining
birthrate, and a sharp drop in longevity have sent Russia to the sick
bay. To fend off further decline in population, Putin has offered
enticements to the citizens of some former Soviet republics to settle
in Russia.
The lumbering bear wants Armenia. And whether Armenia likes it or not,
sickly Russia is the only game in town.
Putin might have opened a Stolichnaya Elit to celebrate Sarkissian’s
U-turn, but the former KGB agent should know that a forced marriage
doesn’t bode well for the future of the relationship. Perhaps
he doesn’t realize that his loveless wedding not only humiliated
Sarkissian, but it also humiliated Armenians everywhere. His brutal
tactics will leave a permanent scar on Armenian-Russian relations. One
can’t force love. Unfortunately, Vlad the Impaler is no debonair
Casanova.
http://www.keghart.com/Editorial-Blunders