Author: Badalian Vardan

SEVAN LAKE ENDEMIC FISHES ENDANGERED: EXPERT

YEREVAN, November 27. /ARKA/. Endemic fish species at Sevan Lake
are endangered, head of hydrobiology of Armenia’s institute of
hydroecology and ichthyology Susanna Hakobyan said at a discussion
on Sevan’s problems Monday.

The greatest danger for these species, according to the expert,
is rapidly breeding non typical fishes that have created serious
competition to Armenian bystranka and morocos in particular.

Recently about 366,000 trout baby fishes were let into the lake,
which will have a positive impact on ecosystem of the lake only if
proper conditions are created for their development, Hakobyan said.

But construction of small hydro power plants on rivers flowing into
the lake has negative impact on restoration of local fish populations,
according to the expert.

Another threat may be the possible increase in abstraction from Sevan,
Hakobyan said.

In 2012 the government had to apply to the parliament with an
initiative to make a number of amendments to increase abstraction
from Sevan for irrigation (from 170mln to 320mln cubic meters).

Illegal fishing that has increased several times over the last years
is another factor endangering the fish populations in the lake,
the expert said.

According to 2012 data, fish population in Sevan Lake dropped 3.5
times. -0–

– See more at:

POVERTY RATE IN ARMENIA CLIMBS 17.4% FROM 2008 TO 32.4% IN 2012

YEREVAN, November 26. /ARKA/. Poverty rate in Armenia climbed 17.4%
from 2008 to 32.4% in 2012, according to the National Statistical
Service’s report “Poverty and Social Panorama in Armenia, 2013”.

In its report, the National Statistical Service divides the poor into
three categories – extremely poor, very poor and poor. The extreme
poverty rate in Armenia rose 1.8 times within five years and the rate
of very poor people went 7.1% up.

According to the statistical report, every third resident of the
country or 32.4% (980,000 people) lived in penury in 2012, 13.5%
(408,000) were very poor and 2.8% (85,000) extremely poor.

Some 980,000 people lived in poverty in 2012.

Poverty rates in urban and rural areas are similar – in cities it
stood at 32.5% in 2012 after rising 17.7% since 2008, and in villages
it rose 16.7% to 32.1%.

The lowest poverty rate was recorded in Yerevan – about 25.6% (1.6
times lower than other urban areas’ indicators). Poverty rate mounted
27.3% over these five years here, while in other cities it rose 12.3%.

Some 64.4% of poor people are urban areas’ residents.

The main factor of the 2008-2012 poverty rate increase was a sharp
economic decline (14.1%) in 2009.

Earlier, Finance Minister David Sargsyan said that poverty rate in
Armenia is gradually going down.

This slow but sustainable downward motion will continue also in 2014
thanks to increase in salaries and pensions.

The minimal salary in the country was AMD 32,500 in 2012, and average
monthly salary AMD 113,163 drama.

In July 2013, the minimum salary was raised by 30% to AMD
45,000. —0—-

– See more at:

RELIGIOUS AND COMMUNITY LEADERS DECRY WHITE HOUSE BAN OF ‘ORPHAN RUG’

[ Part 2.2: “Attached Text” ]

Tuesday, November 26th, 2013 | Posted by Contributor

[communitybriefing.jpg]

ANCA-Glendale chair Berdj Karapetian kicks off community briefing
Tuesday

Ahead of Obama’s visit to Glendale Armenian religious and community
leaders gather to send clear message to White House.

Glendale Councilman Zareh Sinanyan to deliver protest letter to Obama
during his visit.

GLENDALE–As President Obama began his visit to Glendale, religious
and community leaders held a briefing to call on the President to
stop blocking the display of an Armenian Genocide-era rug woven by
orphans of that crime against humanity.

The rug, which took Armenian orphans 10 months to weave and has
4,404,206 individual knots, was presented to President Calvin Coolidge
in 1925.

Armenian National Committee of America Glendale Chapter Chairman
Berdj Karapetian opened the press conference and welcomed a broad
array of U.S. and Armenian print, television and online media to the
community-wide forum urging concrete White House action regarding
the historic rug.

“Today we pause, reflect and act,” remarked ANCA National Board member
Raffi Hamparian. “We pause to remember the remarkable generosity of the
American people during the Armenian Genocide. We reflect on the little
orphans of the genocide who carefully wove a rug that was presented to
President Coolidge. And finally, we act, by demanding that President
Obama stop his Administration’s unusual policy of placing the orphan
rug under quarantine. This is an exceedingly unusual way to treat a
piece of American history – especially a piece of American history
that speaks to our nation’s greatness in responding to a crime against
all humanity,” Hamparian added.

Western Primate Hovnan Derderian spoke eloquently about the integral
part the Armenian Genocide orphan rug plays in American history and
the need for the White House to arrange its permanent display.

Western Prelate Archbishop Moushegh Mardirossian noted, “The rug was
a gracious gesture symbolizing the friendship between the American
and Armenian peoples. It is part of American history.

Keeping it locked away in storage is not only insulting to the
orphaned girls who painstakingly crafted this beautiful work of art,
it also represents a shameful effort to cover up, at the urging of
genocide-deniers in Ankara, a truly proud chapter of American history.”

Congressman Adam Schiff (D-CA), released a statement declaring
that the [orphan] rug “is not only a symbol of the resilience of
the Armenian people through their darkest days, but also serves as a
tangible expression of the inherent truth that 1.5 million people were
killed in the first genocide of the 20th Century.” The Congressman,
long a champion on human rights issues, added, “It is my intention
to host an event in the Capitol featuring the rug, shedding light on
the efforts made by American diplomats and charitable organizations
to call attention to, and provide relief for, the victims of the
genocide. I will be urging the Administration to make the rug available
for display at that time and hope for a favorable response.”

Schiff’s statement was read by ANCA-WR chairwoman Nora Hovsepian,
who emphasized the community’s frustration at the White House’s
posturing on the issue.

In a November 8th Congressional letter to President Obama,
Representatives Schiff and David Valadao (R-CA) were joined by a
bipartisan group of over 30 U.S. Representatives – including House
Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Ed Royce (R-CA) – in calling upon
the White House to reverse its decision to block the public display
of the rug.

The press conference ended with participants signing a letter to
President Obama welcoming him to Glendale and urging him to “permit
the public display of the Armenian Genocide-era rug woven by orphans
of that crime against humanity.”

The letter referenced an earlier White House statement to LA Times
reporter Richard Simon, noting that displaying the rug “for only half a
day in connection with a private book launch event, as proposed, would
have been an inappropriate use of U.S. government property, would have
required the White House to undertake the risk of transporting the
rug for limited public exposure, and was not viewed as commensurate
with the rug’s historical significance.”

The petitioners wrote that they were “pleased that the White House
acknowledges the historical significance of this Armenian Genocide-era
rug. Therefore, we urge you to permit its prominent exhibition and
eventual permanent display at a location accessible to the public
in Washington, D.C.” Joining the religious and community leaders in
signing the letter were Glendale Unified School Board President Nayiri
Nahabedian, Glendale City College Board of Trustees Vice President
Dr. Vahe Peroomian, and representatives from the Armenian Relief
Society, Homenetmen Armenian Scouting and Athletic Association, All
Armenian Students Association, Armenian Youth Federation, Armenian
Rug Association, United Young Armenians, Armenian American Council
on Aging, Hamazkayin Armenian Educational and Cultural Association,
among a broad array or community supporters.

“I look forward to presenting the letter to President Obama to honor
American history by displaying the rug,” said Councilmember Zareh
Sinanyan, who was scheduled to attend the Obama event at Dreamworks
Animation.

The briefing also featured remarks by Chamlian Armenian School
Principal Vazken Madenlian and Executive Director of the Los Angeles
committee for the Genocide Centennial Aroutin Hartunian.

The Armenian National Committee of America launched a nationwide
campaign last month on the orphan rug issue after The Washington Post
reported that a planned December 16th Smithsonian Institution exhibit
featuring the rug, organized in conjunction with the Armenian Cultural
Foundation and the Armenian Rug Society, was abruptly cancelled when
the White House, reversing an earlier affirmative decision, refused
to lend the iconic symbol of American and Armenian shared heritage
to the museum.

Washington Post staff writer and Pulitzer Prize winning journalist
Philip Kennicott, reported “There was hope that the carpet, which has
been in storage for almost 20 years, might be displayed December 16th
as part of a Smithsonian event that would include a book launch for
Hagop Martin Deranian’s ‘President Calvin Coolidge and the Armenian
Orphan Rug.’ But on September 12th, the Smithsonian scholar who helped
organize the event canceled it, citing the White House’s decision not
to loan the carpet. In a letter to two Armenian American organizations,
Paul Michael Taylor, director of the institution’s Asian cultural
history program, had no explanation for the White House’s refusal to
allow the rug to be seen and said that efforts by the U.S. ambassador
to Armenia, John A. Heffern, to intervene had also been unavailing.”

Kennicott described the controversy as “a sign of the Obama
administration’s dismal reputation in the Armenian American community
that everyone assumes… must be yet another slap in the face for
Armenians seeking to promote understanding of one of the darkest
chapters in 20th-century history.”

The White House response thus far has been vague – with National
Security Staff Assistant Press Secretary Laura Magnuson initially
offering the following comment to the Asbarez Armenian Newspaper:
“The Ghazir rug is a reminder of the close relationship between the
peoples of Armenia and the United States. We regret that it is not
possible to loan it out at this time.” A statement with the same
exact wording was released by the White House last week and included
in Kennicott’s article.

The Armenian orphan rug measures 11â~@² 7â~@³ x 18â~@² 5â~@³ and
is comprised of 4,404,206 individual knots. It took Armenian girls
in the Ghazir Orphanage of Near East Relief 10 months to weave. The
rug was delivered to the President Coolidge on December 4, 1925, in
time for Christmas, with a label on the back of the rug, which reads
“IN GOLDEN RULE GRATITUDE TO PRESIDENT COOLIDGE.”

According to Missak Kelechian, an expert on this topic, the gift of
the Armenian Orphan rug was widely covered in U.S. media, including
in the New York Times in 1925 and the Washington Post in 1926.

Additional information about the history of the Armenian Orphan Rug
is available in Dr. Hagop Martin Deranian’s book, “President Coolidge
and the Armenian Orphan Rug,” published on October 20, 2013, by the
Armenian Cultural Foundation and soon to be available on Amazon.com.

ban-of-%E2%80%98orphan-rug%E2%80%99/

ASHTON PROMISES TO HELP KARABAKH SETTLEMENT

Turan Information Agency, Azerbaijan
November 22, 2013 Friday

The EU High Representative for Foreign and Security Policy Catherine
Ashton welcomed the meeting of the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan
in Vienna on November 19.

In her statement, she said that “the willingness of the presidents
of Armenia and Azerbaijan to continue negotiations and to hold a new
appointment soon is encouraging.”

The European Commissioner also noted that the EU is ready to engage
in new efforts to resolve the Karabakh conflict and to help strengthen
the work of the OSCE Minsk Group. -16D-

RULER OF SHARJAH’S GENEROSITY ENABLES ARMENIAN MONASTERY TO REOPEN

The National, UAE
Nov 26 2013

A significant donation by the Ruler of Sharjah has enabled a medieval
monastery in Armenia to reopen.

Dr Sheikh Sultan bin Mohammed Al Qasimi made a fortuitous visit to
the Haghartsin Monastery several years ago at the invitation of the
former president, Robert Kocharian.

“In 2005 His Royal Highness visited Armenia and generously offered
to renovate the complex during a tour of various Armenian regions,”
said Varouj Nerguizian, a Sharjah-based Armenian businessman who has
advised Dr Sheikh Sultan.

Mr Nerguizian would not say how much was donated, but local media
reports said it could be about US$1.7 million (Dh6.2m).

Now, after years of building work including a new road up to the
monastery to help to boost visitor numbers, the refurbished structure
was finally opened last month.

“I cannot recall anything similar to this happening in our history
that an Arab Sheikh, a Muslim, helped to restore and rescue an Armenian
Christian church,” the priest, Aristakes Aivazyan, said.

“Without doubt it was God who brought the Sheikh to Haghartsin.”

Perched spectacularly amid thickly forested mountains about 100
kilometres north-east of Yerevan, Haghartsin Monastery is a masterpiece
of medieval Armenian ecclesiastical architecture.

Founded in the 10th century, the monastery, which includes three
churches and once housed about 250 monks, survived attacks from Arab
and Ottoman invaders and anti-religious campaigns under Soviet rule
during its turbulent history.

But after weathering those storms, decades of neglect meant the
complex looked headed for collapse as plants twisted through walls
and cracks threatened to send buildings tumbling.

“The monastery was in need of serious reconstruction but the repairs
were always delayed by the lack of finances,” Father Aivazyan said.

The donation, said Mr Nerguizian, “falls within the natural context
of His Royal Highness’s philanthropy as well as respect for other
religions”.

Sharjah has a thriving Armenian community which has its own church.

For those working at the monastery, the surprise of seeing an Arab
leader visiting the holy Christian site remains a vivid memory.

“He came with his entourage of about 10 people and looked around for
quite a while at all the churches and stone crosses before asking to
go into the main Church of Our Lady,” said Artak Sahakyan, who sells
candles to visiting worshippers. “When he came out he said that he
believed that the word of God was really heard here.”

Armenia is considered the oldest Christian country in the world and
its Apostolic Church belongs to the ancient Oriental Orthodox branch.

The church is hugely influential in Armenia and two monasteries
and its main cathedral are already listed on Unesco’s list of world
heritage sites.

ARE ELDERLY ARMENIAN WOMEN VICTIMS OF HATE CRIMES?

Al Monitor
Nov 26 2013

Author: Orhan Kemal Cengiz
Posted November 25, 2013

A string of attacks against elderly Armenian women occurred in
Istanbul in late 2012 and early 2013. The victims were all lone
octogenarians. Two of them were badly battered and lost their sight,
while a third was stabbed to death after a brutal beating.

The first victim, Turfanda Asik, 87, lost an eye as a result of a
severe beating at the hands of an assailant who broke into her home.

The assailant – or perhaps the assailants – took nothing from the
apartment.

Shortly after, Maritsa Kucuk, 84, was found dead in her home, stabbed
seven times and badly beaten. Only the earrings and other jewelry
she usually wore were missing, while money was left untouched.

The third victim, Sultan Aykar, 83, was knocked down by an assailant
approaching from behind while she unlocked the door to her home.

Thanks to neighbors who heard the noise and rushed to help, she
survived the attack but also lost an eye.

All three incidents happened in Istanbul’s Samatya neighborhood, home
to 8,000-10,000 members of Istanbul’s 60,000-strong Armenian minority.

As expected, the attacks had a terrorizing effect on Armenians,
sending shock waves across the entire community.

It was obvious that the string of violence was directed exclusively
at elderly Armenian women and was not robbery-motivated. Yet, in
their initial statements the police insisted that the assailants were
robbery-motivated and did not act in an organized way.

Such statements only fueled the anxiety of the Armenian community,
spreading fears that the police’s careless attitude would further
embolden the perpetrators. Human rights groups and activists against
hate crimes raised concern that the state was yet again displaying
a knee-jerk impulse to look the other way when violence targeted
Turkey’s Armenians. But just as the controversy had begun to grow,
the police came up with a surprise, announcing on March 4, the arrest
of the 38-year-old alleged assailant. The suspect’s blood sample
matched the one found in Kucuk’s home. He had a criminal record for
theft as well as another characteristic that debunked those who saw
the attacks as hate crimes against Armenians: Murat Nazaryan was
himself of Armenian origin.

The controversy waned after the suspect’s profile emerged and the
attacks came to be seen as incidents of ordinary crime.

The doubts, however, were soon rekindled when the judicial process
kicked off. The court handled Nazaryan’s case in a bizarre fashion,
following procedures typical for cases of terrorism and organized
crime. The prosecution imposed a blackout on the investigation, which
meant that the victims’ relatives and lawyers had no access to the
case file until the trial opened.

To see the other bizarre details in Nazaryan’s case, let’s take a
look at the press statement that the victims’ attorney, Eren Keskin,
and the Human Rights Association’s Istanbul branch released jointly on
Nov. 19 under the headline “Was Maritsa Kucuk killed in a hate crime?

Shed light on the truth!”

Here are the highlights of the statement: “Maritsa Kucuk, 87, was
battered and stabbed to death on Dec. 28, 2012. Had murder been the
only motive, an abrupt blow or a firearm shot would have sufficed to
kill a woman at that age. Yet, she was brutally battered for hours
and repeatedly stabbed.

“From Nov. 28, 2012 to Jan. 26, 2013, a period that spans Maritsa
Kucuk’s murder, other elderly Armenian women were targeted in
Samatya in similar attacks involving brutal violence. Following
Murat Nazaryan’s arrest, all news reports, which were obviously
funneled to the media from a single source, highlighted Nazaryan’s
Armenian ethnicity, branded him the “Samatya assailant,” creating the
impression he was responsible for all attacks, and asserted that the
attacks were robbery-motivated. Murat Nazaryan, however, is currently
on trial only for Maritsa Kucuk’s murder.

“The meetings we had with the victims’ families led to one conclusion:
The attacks were not robbery-motivated. Asik was battered for hours
but not even a single drawer was opened in her home. Kucuk’s home
was found all tidy, they didn’t look for anything there. Several bank
notes on the table were untouched.

“Maritsa Kucuk’s family and their attorney Eren Keskin were barred
access to the crime-scene report and photos and other related police
documents for no less than six months before the trial kicked off
because the prosecution had imposed a secrecy decision on the probe.

The practice of secrecy is used mostly in cases of organized crimes
or in cases related to state security. Why did it become necessary,
if this is an ordinary murder file?

“Murat Nazaryan remained silent in the first two hearings. The only
thing he said was, ‘I didn’t kill anyone.’ At the hearing on Nov. 4,
2013, the truth began to slowly emerge. Maritsa Kucuk was killed by
three people, who had taken Nazaryan along by force. They had guns. …

[Nazaryan] mentioned gangs. He said he had kept silent because he
was bullied and frightened.”

Nazaryan’s new testimony has led human rights groups and the victims’
families to believe that a larger campaign of organized attacks could
have been underway than originally was thought. They are urging the
authorities to expand the investigation.

Nazaryan’s testimony has yet to lead to other arrests, but hate
crime is back under consideration as the motive. If his account is
not a fabrication, Nazaryan seems to be a mere pawn, with the real
perpetrators at large.

The theory of an organized racist group is being strengthened
by the fact that another Armenian woman was attacked in Istanbul
on Aug. 17, months after Nazaryan’s arrest. Like the other women,
Markirit Camkosoglu, 80, suffered serious physical violence but was
lucky enough to escape without major injury.

It would be premature to conclude at present whether Nazaryan is a
deranged ordinary criminal or a pawn manipulated by a racist gang. In
any case, Kucuk’s murder and the other attacks deserve to be followed
very closely, keeping in mind the possibility of an organized hate
campaign. Could it be that some gangs in Turkey are trying to give
a message in the run-up to the 100th anniversary of the Armenian
genocide? Is it the resurgence of anti-Armenian attacks, unseen since
the 2007 assassination of ethnic Armenian journalist Hrant Dink? If
Nazaryan was not really alone, many fresh questions will continue to
pop up.

JUDGE NOMINEE GETS UNFAIR RAP IN ARMENIAN GENOCIDE DISPUTE

Boston Globe, MA
Nov 26 2013

November 26, 2013

The Governor’s Council is poised to make a profound error by
rejecting a Massachusetts Superior Court nominee based, in part, on
his volunteer activities with the Anti-Defamation League, a national
organization committed to combating anti-Semitism and other forms of
discrimination. Whether through bad faith or a lack of familiarity with
the facts, a majority of the eight-member board appears to believe
that Joseph Berman, a well-regarded trial and appellate lawyer,
didn’t stand up for justice during the 2007-08 clash between the
league’s national leadership and the Armenian-American community.

Back then, national president Abraham Foxman tarnished the organization
when he failed to acknowledge unambiguously that Ottoman Turks
committed genocide against Armenians during and after World War I. The
ADL’s New England branch rebelled, to its credit. Former regional
director Andrew Tarsy was fired by the national office for refusing to
toe the official line. Two local board members, including Boston City
Councilor Michael Ross, resigned. Other local board members, including
Berman, took the fight directly to the national office. They succeeded
at winning recognition by the ADL of “the genocide of approximately
1.5 million Armenians’~R from 1915 to 1923.

Had Berman been an apologist for Foxman at the time, it would make
sense for Governor’s Council member Marilyn Pettito Devaney and
others to seek an explanation. Devaney is a resident of Watertown,
which boasts a large Armenian community. But Berman was never the
problem in the first place. On the contrary, he and other ADL members
from Boston reset the ADL’s moral compass.

Berman’s credentials are in order. He has argued cases before the
Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court and Appeals Court. He is an
expert on legal ethics and a respected mediator. Still, the Governor’s
Council appears adamant about rejecting him.

Jeffrey Robbins, the chair of the board of the New England
Anti-Defamation League, places the resistance to Berman somewhere on
the path “between mystifying and bizarre.’~R Similar terms have been
used before to describe the actions of the council responsible for
approving and rejecting gubernatorial judicial appointments. Sometimes
the body seems uninterested in the candidates. Other times it gets
bogged down in extraneous or distorted issues, as is happening now
with Berman’s nomination. Massachusetts shouldn’t be deprived of a
qualified judge for specious reasons.

IRAN-U.S. RAPPROCHEMENT – WHAT’S IN IT FOR ISRAEL / SAUDI ARABIA?

IPS – Inter Press Service
November 22, 2013 Friday

Mark N. Katz
WASHINGTON, Nov 22 2013

Israel, Saudi Arabia, and some of the other Arab Gulf states are
deeply sceptical of the Barack Obama administration’s efforts to
reach a deal with Iran limiting its nuclear program and to improve
U.S.-Iranian relations generally.

Washington’s traditional Middle Eastern allies warn that the Islamic
Republic cannot be trusted, and that Washington must not reach
a deal with Iran that either fails to adequately limit Iranian
nuclear ambitions, or which Tehran has no intention of abiding by
even if it does. Better ties offer the best opportunity to change how
Tehran calculates the costs and benefits of hostile behavior toward
Washington’s traditional allies in the Middle East.

Israeli and Saudi leaders in particular are adamant about this, and
are frustrated, angry, and mystified that the Obama administration
knows of their concerns about Iran, but is attempting to reach an
agreement with it anyway. What their behavior reveals is that it is
not just Iran whom Israeli and Saudi leaders don’t trust, but also
the Obama administration and Washington more generally.

While Israel and Saudi Arabia (among others) have had good reason
to fear the Islamic Republic of Iran in the past, the strong degree
of Iranian-U.S. hostility motivated Washington to contain Iran –
and its doing so benefited Israel and Saudi Arabia. What Israeli
and Saudi leaders now fear is that if Iranian-U.S. relations improve
significantly, Washington will no longer act so strongly to contain
Iran.

Indeed, the U.S. may press Israel and Saudi Arabia to soften their own
policies toward Iran so as not to hinder the process of Iranian-U.S.

rapprochement or Tehran’s progress in “rejoining the international
community.”

Something like this may well occur. And it might not just be the
Obama administration doing this. Because U.S. sanctions against
Iran have been so very tight and because U.S. public opinion has
viewed Iran so negatively for so very many years, there have been
few vested interests in the U.S. (apart from a portion of the small
Iranian-American community) willing to lobby for improved ties between
Washington and Tehran.

But as Iranian-U.S. relations improve, this will change. U.S.

corporations – especially petroleum firms – have long wanted to do
business with Iran, but sanctions and Iran’s negative image prevented
this. Improved Iranian-U.S. relations will result in U.S. business
being more willing to lobby for reducing sanctions (which, they will
argue, mainly benefit their competitors in Europe, Russia, and China).

Further, the prospect of improved Washington-Tehran ties may free the
Armenian-American lobby to argue that better Iranian-U.S. relations
would greatly help their homeland escape its over-dependence on Russia
vis-a-vis Turkey and Azerbaijan (neighbors with which Armenia has
long had difficult relations).

And despite its differences with Armenia, Azerbaijan – as well as
Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and U.S. petroleum companies active in them –
would welcome the opportunity to export petroleum via Iran. Further,
the U.S. military and all those concerned with containing the Taliban
may see a friendly Iran as a better route for supplying Afghan
government forces than either unreliable Pakistan or the long and
expensive route through Russia and Central Asia.

And being a professor, I cannot help but note that cash-strapped U.S.

universities would very much like to see the return of large numbers
of full tuition-paying Iranian students.

If all these – and probably other unanticipated – constituencies with
a strong interest in friendly Iranian-U.S. relations in the U.S.

arise, then Israel, Saudi Arabia, and others who now fear Iran will
find it difficult to press Washington to resume a tougher policy
toward Iran in the future. Anticipation of this state of affairs is
undoubtedly an important factor motivating Israeli and Saudi leaders to
try to forestall an Iranian-U.S. rapprochement now before this occurs.

What they do not appreciate, though, is that improved Iranian-U.S.

relations will lead to a similar process unfolding in Iran. The
prospect of improved Iranian-U.S. relations will allow those who
would benefit from it to argue in favor of this process and against
policies that undermine it.

While it is difficult for Iranian actors to argue against the position
that Iran must remain ever vigilant against U.S. hostility when U.S.

policy toward Iran is indeed hostile, it will be easier for them to do
so if they can point to a real prospect of an improved relationship,
or better yet, an actually improved relationship that has provided
benefits they do not want to lose.

To put it bluntly: when the ayatollahs and even the leadership of the
Revolutionary Guards can travel to and own property in the U.S., send
their children to college there, and earn money as consultants to and
partners with U.S. corporations, it is doubtful that they will want
to risk losing all this for the dubious benefits of issuing nuclear
threats or supporting ungrateful and unprofitable allies such as Hamas,
Hezbollah, or Assad.

Fearful Israelis and Saudis (along with their U.S. supporters)
reading this will undoubtedly claim that the Iranians want to “have
their cake and eat it too” through benefiting from improved economic
ties with the West in order to more easily build up their military
strength and support their militant allies.

But while those who fear Iran may believe otherwise, it will simply be
impossible for Tehran to build and maintain good relations with the
U.S. while at the same time pursuing hostile policies toward Israel,
Saudi Arabia, and others. The rapprochement process – and all of Iran’s
benefits from it – would quickly end if it did despite the growing
U.S. and Iranian domestic constituencies seeking better relations.

The growth of these constituencies, though, could be powerful forces
acting to forestall counter-productive Iranian behaviour.

Hostile Iranian-U.S. relations have not served to put an end to
hostile Iranian policies toward Israel and Saudi Arabia in the past,
and are unlikely to do so in the future. An improved Iranian-U.S.

relationship will not lead to Iran becoming friends with Israel
and Saudi Arabia (which, of course, are not exactly friends with
each other).

Better ties between Washington and Tehran, though, offer the best
opportunity to change how Tehran calculates the costs and benefits
of hostile behaviour (if not hostile statements) toward Washington’s
traditional allies in the Middle East.

Mark N. Katz is a professor of government and politics at George
Mason University in Fairfax, VA. He is the author of many books and
articles, including Leaving without Losing: The War on Terror after
Iraq and Afghanistan (Johns Hopkins University Press, 2012).

COLLAPSING MONOPOLY OF ARMENIA

Several important things took place during the U.S. Armenian economic
cooperation taskforce. First, Contour Global, an American company
with a big experience in water energy, is ready to invest 180 million
dollars in Armenia. Most probably, the cascade over the Vorotan
is meant.

A few months earlier the minister of energy of Armenia had announced
that the American company is interested in the cascade of the Vorotan
River. In fact, the investment of the American company will be
significant for several reasons.

First, it will be a big American investment in the Armenian economy.

It is important to have this investment in the energy sector where
Russian capital is predominant. American capital will not help
diversify the sector but it will be a significant step in that
direction. Besides, the engagement of the American company may lead
to technological modernization in Armenia’s energy sector.

Another circumstance comes up, the water plant on the Armenian-Iranian
border. And the important question is whether the American company
will be interested later on. A few months ago the Armenian government
exempted the construction of the water power plant on the border
of Iran from taxes. It followed the election of reformer Hassan
Rowhani in Iran, which was hailed by the West. At the same time,
after his election Rowhani touched upon the Armenian-Iranian relations
several times, hinting Yerevan’s passive posture to joint projects and
programs. Then the parliament approved exemption of the construction
of the water power plant from taxes pending for discussion for a
long time.

It is very important what Russia thinks.

For example, Russia expected to get the last energy generation units
of Armenia, the Cascade of the Vorotan River. Rumors appeared in the
press every now and then for years. It is interesting to know why
Russia decided to hand over the Cascade of the Vorotan. Perhaps Moscow
thinks that it has got enough levers of influence on Armenia, and it
can skip one since it is short of money for the time being. It is not
ruled out that after the decision on joining the Customs Union Moscow
granted Armenia quotas of economic cooperation with the United States.

>From this point of view the issue of prospects of investments
in aviation raised at the meeting of the U.S.-Armenian taskforce
is interesting. In the TV report on the meeting the American side
mentioned the possibility of operation of a private American airline
in Armenia.

In fact, the United States displays interest in aviation, welcoming
the open sky policy of Armenia. In Armenia aviation used to be one
of the pillars of monopoly, and this initiative would symbolize the
end of monopoly and establishment of competitiveness in Armenia,
producing both economic and psychological effects.

Apparently, after a failure of political u-turn in the relations with
Armenia Washington opts for economic activities. The United States
seemed to combine options until 2008, trying to understand where
a breakthrough would be more probable but the breakthrough did not
take place.

Now there is a transformation to the economic option but boring
has replaced breakthrough. The political aspect is ceded to Russia,
instead economic quotas are gained where politics is not tangible,
is a strategic component and therefore will not cause a prompt and
tough counteraction by Russia.

Hakob Badalyan 22:23 25/11/2013 Story from Lragir.am News:

SAPPERS OF RUSSIAN BASE IN ARMENIA FINISH CLEARING OF TRAINING GROUNDS

Monday,
November
25

Field engineers of the South Military Region’s Russian military base
in Armenia have finished clearing of explosive items in Kamkhud and
Alagyaz training grounds, RFE/RL Armenian service said.

According to the press service of the South Military Region, over 400
hectares of land in training and shooting grounds was cleared in the
past month. About 100 sappers were involved in the work. More than
3,000 explosive items were disarmed.

TODAY, 20:33

Aysor.am