Author: Badalian Vardan

GREATEST OCCURRENCE OF TRAFFICKING VICTIMS FROM ARMENIA FOUND IN TURKEY, UAE, RUSSIA – OSCE SPECIAL REPRESENTATIVE

ARKA
May 8, 2009

YEREVAN, May 8. /ARKA/. The greatest occurrence of trafficking victims
from Armenia are found in Turkey, United Arabic Emirates and Russia,
said OSCE Special Representative, Coordinator for Combating Human
Trafficking Eva Biaudet.

Several cases indicate that Armenia is a destination for trafficking
as well, she said at International Press-Center "Novosti" on Friday.

According to her the information on identified victims of trafficking
is based on the information of the individuals convicted for the
crime in international reports.

Biaudet said seven convicts were recorded in Armenia in 2007 for
trafficking affairs, and only four last year. There were more cases of
criminal prosecutions and investigations. She added the real figures,
apparently, exceed the official data, but exact information does
not exist.

The more effective assistance is provided to victims of trafficking,
the more ready they will be to tell the details of what happened to
them, stressed Biaudet.

The OSCE Special Rep stated cases of internal trafficking exists in
Armenia as well. She said, the experience shows that cases of internal
trafficking always exist where there is external trafficking.

According to Biaudet, the most cases of trafficking from Armenia to
Turkey and UAE is sexual exploitation.

She noted cases of traffic king are also possible in the countries
with big migration flows. She said sometimes a person joins
migration processes legally, but then finds himself in a vulnerable
situation.

STEPANAKERT PREPARES FOR MAY 9 CELEBRATIONS

PanARMENIAN.Net
07.05.2009 17:31 GMT+04:00

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ On May 7, NKR President Bako Shakyan convened
working meeting to discuss organization of May 9 celebrations. The
meeting was attended by NKR Parliament Speaker Ashot Goulyan, Prime
Minister Ara Harutyunyan, Ministers and law enforcement officials.

After familiarizing himself with agenda of festive celebrations,
Mr. Sahakyan instructed meeting participants to start organizational
work. In the meantime, the President stressed the importance of
coordinated work and mutual cooperation among state government bodies,
NKR President’s Press Service reports.

PRESIDENT OF ARMENIA RECEIVES PACE MIGRATION, REFUGEE AND POPULATION AFFAIRS REPORTER

ARMENPRESS
MAY 6, 2009
YEREVAN

President of Armenia Serzh Sargsyan received today reporter of
Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe on migration, refugee
and population affairs John Grinwein who arrived in Armenia to get
acquainted with the issues of protection of rights of refugees in
Armenia as he is going to present a report in the commission on the
defense of rights of long-term re-settled people in Europe.

Presidential press service told Armenpress that according to the
president Armenian authorities have always highlighted works directed
towards the solution of issues of vulnerable classes of people, one
of which are refugees and organizes these works with specialized
establishments like UNHCR Yerevan office, International Migration
agency.

Serzh Sargsyan said that the authorities are doing everything possible
for the full integration of refugees in the public life of the country.

>From the standpoint of the improvement of the legislation the president
underscored the adoption of law on refugees and shelter seekers which
will correspond to the international standards. Serzh Sargsyan noted
that Armenia’s opportunities for fully solving the issues of refugees
are limited as of now and our country is expecting the support of
the international organizations.

CAN THAW UNSTICK FROZEN CONFLICT?
Konul Khalilova

BBC Azeri.com
rld/europe/8034186.stm
2009/05/06 11:50:47 GMT

Hopes of a breakthrough in the long-running Nagorno-Karabakh conflict
between Armenia and Azerbaijan are increasing as the presidents of
the two countries prepare to meet this week at a European Union summit
in Prague.

There is a sense of a window of an opportunity that must be seized.

The meeting is the culmination of a series of moves which has seen
both sides edging towards a lasting peace.

It is also linked to a third player in a complicated diplomatic
triangle: Turkey.

A rapprochement between Armenia and Turkey, which could lead to the
opening of their joint border, has caused alarm in Azerbaijan, which
has always had Turkey’s sympathy over Nagorno-Karabakh.

" We understand the importance of links between Armenia and
Nagorno-Karabakh " Azeri President Ilham Aliyev But at the same time,
there are signs that the thaw may also unstick that frozen conflict.

The Azeri and Armenian foreign ministers have visited Washington this
week for discussions with US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.

They follow recent talks between the two countries’ leaders and
their Russian counterpart Dmitry Medvedev, after which President
Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan and President Serge Sarkisian of Armenia
expressed their high hopes for a lasting peace.

‘Ready to move’

A deal has been a long time coming.

A ceasefire was signed in 1994 after a three-year war which claimed
up to 30,000 lives.

The Azeri population of Nagorno-Karabakh – an ethnic Armenian enclave
within Azerbaijan – was displaced as a result of the war and now
lives in different parts of the country.

Azerbaijan demands an immediate withdrawal of Armenian forces from
the territory.

Armenia insists on the enclave’s independence.

But now a peace plan has been drafted by the OSCE Minsk Group, which
was set up to help settle the conflict.

One of the main issues to be solved is that of the Lachin corridor,
the main transport route between Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh.

The president of Azerbaijan has made some unusually warm statements
saying that "we understand the importance of links between Armenia
and Nagorno-Karabakh, and the issues regarding Lachin corridor can
be resolved efficiently".

Mr Medvedev said that the parties were "ready to move in a constructive
direction in order to solve this very difficult problem".

Matthew Bryza, the American co-chair of the Minsk group, sounds
optimistic, saying that a framework for a peace accord between
Azerbaijan and Armenia is "absolutely possible" within the next months.

Turkish influence

The meeting in Prague comes two weeks after Armenia and Turkey agreed
on a roadmap to normalise relations.

Turkey closed its border with Armenia in 1993 in support of Azerbaijan
in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

Turkey and Armenia started high-level talks last year but the real
thaw came just weeks after US President Barack Obama urged Turkey to
come to terms with the past and open its borders.

The "positive mood" created by the Turkish-Armenian roadmap "gives a
new energy to accelerate our work to help resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict" according to US envoy Matthew Bryza.

The EU, which will formally launch a new Eastern Partnership this week
with six former Soviet republics, including Azerbaijan and Armenia,
has so far stood back from the Nagorno-Karabakh problem.

But the EU could gain a lot from a deal, as it attempts to secure
energy supplies by completing the Nabucco gas pipeline project which
would carry Caspian gas to European markets, reducing their dependency
on Russia.

The opening of borders and easing tension in the region suits both
the US and EU, as they attempt to prize Armenia gently away from
Russian influence.

Limited window

However, there are problems to be overcome.

Azerbaijan hints that it is not happy at Turkey having the opening of
the Armenian border "in mind", though Turkey continues to insist that
this would be dependent on an end to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

Azerbaijan also does not seem to be in the mood to make any concessions
regarding its territory.

President Aliyev has said recently that self-determination of Azeris
and Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh "can happen within the framework of
territorial integrity of Azerbaijan" and the conflict can be resolved
"only on this basis".

Rasim Musabeyov, an Azeri political pundit told the BBC Azeri Service
that if this chance of settling both the Turkey-Armenia rift and the
Nagorno-Karabakh problem is lost, "it might bring the region to the
very brink of a new war".

Many experts believe that it will still take several months of
intensive diplomatic effort involving the EU, US and Russia before
any substantial breakthrough is made.

But if the negotiating parties fail to achieve a peace deal in the
coming months and the window of opportunity closes, it is feared that
the West, including the EU, may turn their political energies away
from what may by then seem an intractable problem.

ARMENIA WITHDRAWS FROM NATO DRILLS IN GEORGIA

Xinhua
May 6 2009
China

MOSCOW, May 5 (Xinhua) — Armenia will not participate in the NATO-led
military exercises in Georgia, Russian news agencies reported on
Tuesday, citing the Armenian Defense Ministry.

"Due to the current situation, Armenian troops will not take part in
NATO’s exercises in Georgia," the ministry was quoted by Itar-Tass
and RIA Novosti as saying in a statement.

A spokesman for the Russian Foreign Ministry said on Tuesday that
Russia is satisfied with some countries’ decision to pull out of the
drills, Itar-Tass reported.

The planned exercises, scheduled for May 6 to June 1, have drawn strong
opposition from Moscow. About 1,300 soldiers from over a dozen NATO
member or ally states were originally scheduled to participate, but
Kazakhstan, Latvia, Estonia, Moldova and Serbia have already withdrawn.

Western Diocese of the Armenian Church of America
3325 North Glenoaks Blvd.
Burbank, Ca 91504
Tel: 818-558-7474
Fax: 818-558-6333
Web:

WD Newsletter

Western Diocese e-Newsletter

The Office of the Western Diocese announces with the deepest regret
the passing away of Rev. Archpriest Fr. Vartan Dulgarian. On behalf
of the entire Western Diocese, His Eminence Archbishop Hovnan
Derderian, wish to convey his deepest condolences to the family
members of Fr. Vartan. In our prayers let us beseech the Lord to
welcome into His Kingdom of eternal peace and joy this tireless
servant of His, and to grant consolation and comfort to all those who
mourn Fr. Vartan’s passing.

Upon the instruction of His Eminence Archbishop Hovnan Derderian,
Primate, Rev. Archpriest Fr. Sarkis Petoyan, Pastor of St. John
Armenian Church of San Francisco, will oversee and organize the
funeral services in the upcoming days.

On Wednesday, May 6, 2009, starting at 5:00 PM, His Eminence
Archbishop Hovnan Derderian, Primate, assisted by Diocesan clergy will
preside over the "Home Service" for Fr. Vartan at St. Peter Armenian
Church in Glendale.

The Last Unction Rite for the deceased priest is scheduled to take
place immediately after the "Home Service," beginning at 6:00 PM,
during the celebration of the Divine Liturgy by His Eminence
Archbishop Hovnan Derderian, Primate.

Upon the request of Mrs. Sonig Keshishian, daughter of Fr. Vartan, in
lieu of flowers donation can be made to the Stewardship Program of the
Western Diocese in memory of Rev. Archpriest Fr. Vartan Dulgarian.

Please make you checks payable to the Western Diocese and write in
memo section Stewardship Program (Fr. Vartan):

Western Diocese – Armenian Church
3325 N. Glenoaks Blvd.
Burbank, CA 91504

The funeral service will be held at St. Paul Armenian Church in Fresno
on the following day, on May 7, 2009, at 10:00 AM. The funeral service
will be conducted by Rev. Archpriest Fr. Arshen Aivazian, Pastor of
St. Paul Armenian Church in Fresno.

In memory of our beloved Fr. Vartan a short autobiographical piece –
written recently by Fr. Vartan, who continued working hard until very
recently – is included below in celebration of his long and fruitful
life:

I was born at the Dardanelles on May 15, 1911.

My father died on the day that I was born.

I was a witness of the Genocide of the Armenians, and of the Massacres
at Smyrna. I survived miraculously.

During my childhood I lived in Athens, Greece, and there attended the
local national school.

In 1926 we moved to Alexandria, Egypt, where I graduated from the
Boghosian National High School. I then attended the Berberian College
of Cairo, from which I was graduated in 1928.

In 1932, through the generosity of the Greek Patriarch Meletios, I
went to Greece, and for four years I followed the
Literature-Philosophy course of study in Athens.

My teachers were the following: in the national school, Nicol
Aghbalian and Levon Shant; and in the Berberian School, Retheos
Berberian’s sons, Onnik and Shahan.

I served in teaching at the Boghosian, Haygazian, and Mekhitarian
Schools, and as Choirmaster in the St. Boghos Bedros and the Catholic
churches.

In 1933 I married Miss Zabel Tokatlian, and we were blessed with two
daughters, Mary and Sonia, three grandchildren, and two great
grandchildren. A few years ago my daughter Mary passed away in Freano.

I served as Principal and as Choirmaster in the national school and in
the church of the capital city Khartum of Sudan.

In the month of September of 1957 I was ordained a Priest in the
St. Paul Armenian Church of Fresno, by His Eminence Archbishop Vartan
Kasparian, and was renamed Father Vartan, yielding my baptismal name
of Piuzant.

I have written for the following newspapers and periodicals: Arev,
Husaper, Nor Or, Baikar, Abaka, Nairi, Marmara, Zhamanak, Nor Gyank,
Hay Gyank, Geghart, Hayasdani Hanrabedutiun, Hayreniki Tzayn, The
Armenian Observer, Etchmiadzin, and Sion.

PUBLISHED WORKS: Gyanke Kerezmanen Antin, Giragnorya Khoher, Khachin
Janabare, Mdaseverumner, Gyank yev Haverzhutiun, Tebi Nor Horizonner,
Shoghartzag Khoher yev Dibarner, Jarakaytogh Hokiner, Angakh Hayasdan,
Asdvadz Im Gyanks E, Artzag yev Chapadzo Manraveber, as well as three
volumes of English translations by Prof. Arra Avakian.

COMEDIES: Angadar Amusnutiunner, Hamajarage, Kogh Dzaraner,
Varzhabede, Adenabede, and Vavashod Amusine.

My two latest, large volumes, in Armenian and in English, will soon
appear in print, from the "Yerevan" Press.

Thirty years ago I was awarded the "St. Sahag and St. Mesrob Medal of
Honor" by the Venerable Vazken I Catholicos of All Armenians as an
appreciation for my literary works. At that time His Holiness granted
me the Honor of Archpriest and presented me with a Pectoral Cross.

The Western Diocese of the Armenian Church of North America, providing
spiritual guidance and leadership to the Armenian Apostolic community,
is a 501 (c)(3) non-profit, tax-exempt organization comprised of more
than 50 churches in 16 western states. It was established in 1898 as
the Diocese of the Armenian Church encompassing the entire United
States and Canada. In 1927 the Western Diocese was formed to
exclusivly serve the western United States.

3325 North Glenoaks Blvd. Burbank, CA 91504
Tel: (818) 558-7474 Fax: (818) 558-6333
E-mail: [email protected]
Website:

MAJORITY OF ISRAELI JEWS FAVOR A MILITARY STRIKE AGAINST IRAN’S NUCLEAR FACILITIES

PanARMENIAN.Net
04.05.2009 20:51 GMT+04:00

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ A new Israeli opinion survey says the majority of
Israeli Jews favor a military strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities.

The poll published Monday by Haaretz newspaper indicates that 66 %
of Israeli Jews surveyed backed such an attack on Iran, while 15 %
opposed it and 19 %gave no opinion.

75% of those who supported a strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities said
they would continue to back the attack even if the United States
opposed it, but 15 % said they would change their minds based on
Washington’s position, VOA News reported.

The Economist
May 2, 2009
U.S. Edition

Mountain chess: Turkey and Armenia

Can Turkey and Armenia ever make up?

Recent moves towards a peace deal may come unstuck

A HIGH-STAKES chess game is being played out in the south Caucasus. It
involves America, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Russia and Turkey. Unlike
chess-players, though, all the participants can win in this game, it
is hoped, if they agree on a common aim: peace between Turkey and
Armenia, which would help to thaw the frozen conflict between Armenia
and Azerbaijan over the (mainly Armenian) territory of Nagorno-Karabakh.

It almost seemed possible on April 23rd, when Turkey and Armenia
declared that they had agreed on a "road map" to establish formal ties
and reopen the border. This was sealed by Turkey in 1993 to show
solidarity with Azerbaijan, which had just lost 20% of its territory,
including Nagorno-Karabakh. If the border were open, Armenians could
then climb their sacred Mount Ararat. Friendship with Armenia might
give Turkey the muscle to push through a deal on Karabakh, as well as
securing it a bigger role in the south Caucasus. And that would give
Turkey’s friends a fresh reason to promote Turkish membership of the
European Union.

The most immediate benefit, though, was meant to be dissuading Barack
Obama from keeping his campaign promise to call the mass slaughter of
Ottoman Armenians in 1915 "genocide". In the statement he issued on
April 24th, the day when the world’s Armenians commemorate the
tragedy, the American president tried to please everybody. He plumped
for "medz yeghern", Armenian for "great catastrophe". (Cynics noted
that the Turkish- Armenian deal, though initialled a month ago, had
been announced only a day earlier.) And he praised Turkey’s and
Armenia’s peacemaking efforts. Hardliners in Armenia and the diaspora
were furious, accusing Mr Obama of reneging on his promise. Yet in
Turkey the opposition complained that he had simply swapped Armenian
for English to say the same thing.

A bigger obstacle to a deal may be Azerbaijan. It is threatening to
turn towards Russia and to increase the price of the natural gas it
sells to Turkey. This may explain why the Turkish prime minister,
Recep Tayyip Erdogan, has reverted to the traditional line that,
unless Armenia makes peace with Azerbaijan, Turkey will not make peace
with Armenia’even though the text they initialled reportedly does not
mention Nagorno-Karabakh at all.

Some say he is posturing, to force Armenia to withdraw from some of
the seven regions of Azerbaijan that it occupies outside
Nagorno-Karabakh. Azerbaijan’s president, Ilham Aliev, and his
Armenian counterpart, Serzh Sargsyan, are due to meet in Prague next
week, before an EU eastern-partnership summit. But Mr Sargsyan, whose
image was marred by a disputed presidential election in April 2008, is
unlikely to bend further. One admittedly puny coalition partner has
already walked out over the deal with Turkey. The financial crisis is
starting to bite, too. Armenian migrant labourers are returning from
Russia in droves. Oil and gas prices have shot up. The Armenian dram
has lost over a third of its value against the dollar.

The real spoiler may turn out to be Russia. Armenia is the only
country bordering Turkey, a NATO member, in which the Russians have
troops and a base. Peace with Turkey could lead to their withdrawal,
as Armenia leans westward. The trade-off, say some, could be for
Russian peacekeepers to defend the corridor linking Armenia proper to
Nagorno-Karabakh. But Russia is also said to be bullying Azerbaijan
for more gas. If it gets it, that may kill the planned Nabucco
pipeline to carry Central Asian and Azerbaijani gas to Europe via
Turkey, leaving Europe more dependent on Russia for its energy.

HEAD OF WORKING GROUP OF STATE COMMITTEE ON POWS, HOSTAGES AND MISSING PEOPLE OF ARMENIA: I ALSO HAVE INFORMATION ABOUT CONDITIONS OF CUSTODY OF ARMENIAN POWS IN AZERI JAILS BUT I MAKE NO ALLEGATIONS

ArmInfo
2009-05-01 14:51:00

ArmInfo. The statement of the spokesman of the Ministry of Defense of
Azerbaijan about the "tortures" of Azeri POW in Armenia is a barefaced
lie, the head of the working group of the State Committee on POWs,
Hostages and Missing People Armen Kapriyelyan has told ArmInfo.

"This is one more provocation, a new attempt of the Azeris to cast
mud on the Armenian authorities and our committee. How can the
spokeman of the Azeri DM know if Gasanov is tortured or not. The
only thing he can know for sure is the facts given in the reports of
ICRC delegates regularly visiting Gasanov. ICRC has always said that
we comply with the requirements of the international humanitarian
and human rights laws and has expressed satisfaction with Gasanov’s
health condition. I also have information about the conditions of the
custody of Armenian POWs in Azeri jails but I make no allegations. We
are aware of the atrocities committed by the Azeris against our POWs
and we have shared our concerns with repesentatives of international
humanitarian organizations.

Everybody is aware of our approach to the sensitive problem of custody
and treatment of POWs. So, the spokesman of the Azeri DM better not
measure others by his own yardstick. And the medical treatment of the
Armenian POWs is not their good will but just implementation of the
requirements of Article 30 of Geneva Convention on Treatment of POWs,"
says Kapriyelyan.

Earlier, APA news agency quoted the spokesman of the Azeri DM as
saying that Azeri POW Rafig Gasanov is being tortured and that they
allegedly have relevant information.

To remind, Gasanov has surrendered on his own will and has refused
to go back to Azerbaijan.

ANALYSIS: TURKISH-ARMENIAN THAW AND ENERGY
By John C.K. Daly

UPI Energy
April 27, 2009 Monday 6:22 PM EST

During the past year, at a time of record-high energy prices,
many European officials have decried what they see as Russia’s
state-owned Gazprom natural gas company being used as a tool to
promote the Kremlin’s policies by indulging in hardball quot;pipeline
politics.quot; Gazprom’s favored tool is variable prices being used
to send political signals to recalcitrant former Soviet republics
such as Ukraine and Georgia, with the pressure ramping up in direct
proportion to a government’s inclination to look westward.

Of all the former Soviet republics, Armenia receives the most
preferential pricing; effective April 1, Armenia pays a mere $154 per
thousand cubic meters for Russian gas. In contrast, three months ago
Gazprom Deputy Chairman Alexander Medvedev noted, in reference to
Gazprom’s intention to ramp up Ukraine’s cost from $179 per tcm to
$250 per tcm, quot;The rest of Europe pays more than $400 for each
thousand cubic meters of gas it gets from Russia.quot;

However, great political changes are moving in the southern Caucasus
under one of the region’s last quot;frozen conflicts,quot; which may
well spell the end for Armenia’s cozy arrangement for subsidized
Russian gas. The longstanding triangular dispute between Turkey,
Azerbaijan and Armenia over the 1988-1994 Azeri-Armenian conflict,
during which Turkey in 1993 closed its border with Armenia in a
show of solidarity with Baku, has recently seen Ankara and Yerevan
tentatively moving toward normalizing relations.

On April 24, the Turkish and Armenian foreign ministries announced,
quot;The two parties have achieved tangible progress and mutual
understanding in this process, and they have agreed on a comprehensive
framework for the normalization of their bilateral relations.quot;
After the implosion of the Soviet Union, Turkey was the first
country to recognize Armenia’s independence, but the positive
relations were short-lived, and they were subsequently subsumed
into the Azeri-Armenian conflict. After the Armenian-Turkish road
map was announced, the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry said, quot;The
normalization of Turkish-Armenian relations must proceed in parallel
with the withdrawal of Armenian troops from the occupied lands of
Azerbaijan.quot;

Should the framework result in full normalization of relations, it will
represent yet another turn in the kaleidoscope of Caucasian politics,
and Baku, worried about potential abandonment by its erstwhile ally
Turkey, is making its displeasure widely known. If the discussions
result in normalization, then it will prove a major step toward
resolving a 20-year-old dispute, the longest remaining quot;frozen
conflictquot; on former Soviet territory, which predates the collapse
of the Soviet Union by three years.

A shooting war between Armenia and Azerbaijan broke out in February
1988 as both nations claimed the Nagorno-Karabakh enclave, then
administered by Baku. By May 1994, when Azerbaijan and Armenia signed a
cease-fire agreement ending active hostilities, the conflict had caused
thousands of casualties, created hundreds of thousands of refugees on
both sides and left Armenian armed forces occupying swaths of Azeri
territory, including Nagorno-Karabakh and seven neighboring districts.

The conflict was used by Russia as a bargaining chip to retain
influence in the Caucasus, liberated from Soviet control by the 1991
collapse of the Soviet Union. As both Georgia and rising petro-state
Azerbaijan drifted out from under Moscow’s control, Armenia by default
became Russia’s major Caucasian ally. A thaw between Turkey and Armenia
would recast this strategic reality, but, as with most issues in the
Caucasus, they remain complex as Azerbaijan remains deeply unhappy
with the recent Turkish-Armenian rapprochement.

Last but hardly least, a normalization of Turkish-Armenian relations,
if Azerbaijan could be mollified, could have a dramatic impact on any
potential future export routes for the rising volumes of Caspian oil
and natural gas, as routes transiting Armenia would be far shorter
and less expensive than those developed up to now.

The crown jewel of Western investment in the Caspian is the $3.6
billion, 1,092-mile, 1 million-barrel-per-day Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan
pipeline, which became operational in May 1996. BTC transits
high-quality Azeri crude from Azerbaijan’s Caspian offshore
Azeri-Chirag-Guneshli fields to Turkey’s deepwater Mediterranean
terminus at Ceyhan.

Given the state of relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan at the
time of BTC’s construction, Armenia was excluded from hosting the
pipeline, but Azerbaijan in turn was forced to pay a price for its
unwillingness to negotiate, as BTC was forced to take a lengthy
detour around Armenia, adding substantially to the project’s cost
and construction delays.

The pipeline’s contorted geography dovetailed nicely with Washington’s
support for multiple pipelines, so long as they avoided both Russia
and Iran. BTC proved a financial windfall for both producing nation
Azerbaijan and transit nations Georgia and Turkey. In the first half
of 2007, BTC revenues boosted Azerbaijan’s gross domestic product
growth to an astounding 35 percent, while Georgia received annual
transit fees averaging $62.5 million. Given that BTC covered 155
miles of Georgian territory but 669 miles across Turkey, Ankara’s
share of transit revenues was projected at approximately $200 million
per year. Yerevan could only sigh and watch from the sidelines.

Not that Western pipeline schemes have ended; following the recent
Gazprom-Turkmenistan dispute, interest is reviving in a Trans-Caspian
Pipeline from Turkmenistan passing through Azerbaijan. While TCP was
initially proposed as running through Georgia, a thaw in Turkish and
Armenian relations could divert it southward, cutting many miles and
millions of dollars off construction costs.

Such a change would not be without political risk, however. The BTC
could afford to divert around Armenia since it was not, in any military
sense, a significant threat to the project or the states involved,
but in the case of the TCP, it is most unlikely that either Russia
or Iran would stand idly by while the TCP was built.

Azeri displeasure with quot;blowbackquot; from the discussions
is already evident. Gazprom is on the verge of new deals with
Azerbaijan that promise to bring Azerbaijani gas back into Russian
pipelines, specifically its envisioned South Stream pipeline, which, if
constructed, would transit under the Black Sea from Russia to Bulgaria
and then split into two pipelines — one through the Mediterranean
to Italy, the other through Serbia and Hungary to Austria.

Not wishing to be left out in the cold, Azerbaijani and Armenian
Presidents Ilham Aliyev and Serzh Sargsyan have agreed to meet in
Prague, Czech Republic, on May 7 to continue the direct negotiations
to settle the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

Russia’s reaction to the Turkish-Armenian thaw? For those reading
ulterior political motives into Gazprom policies, ArmRosGazprom
spokeswoman Shushan Sardaryan announced last week that gas supplies
to Armenia would be halted from April 23 to 26 for quot;maintenance
work.quot;

Baku is not above sending an energy signal to Ankara, either, as
Azerbaijan decided to the raise the price of the natural gas supplied
to Turkey as of April 15. Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan
responded that for Baku to raise natural gas prices when oil prices
were falling was quot;bizarre.quot;

Throw in Armenia’s insistence that Turkey recognize the events in
eastern Anatolia in 1915 as genocide, and the adjective seemingly best
suited for prospects for a final pacification of the southern Caucasus,
despite its energy potential, would seem to be quot;murky.quot; As
geopolitical alliances thaw and shift, the only apparent certainty
is that Caspian energy producers will signal their displeasure to
neighboring client and transit nations with more quot;bizarrequot;
behavior.