ANY PROVOCATION IN KARABAKH CAN CLOUD SARGSYAN-ALIYEV MEETING
Noyan Tapan
24.06.2011
(Noyan Tapan – 24.06.2011) On the eve of the June 25 meeting in Kazan
of the presidents of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Russia on the Karabakh
issue, there are conflicting opinions coming out of Artsakh itself
regarding this latest attempt to iron out some basic framework on
which a settlement can be reached in the future. Masis Mayilyan,
President of the MKR’s Public Council of Foreign Policy and Security,
says that a Basic Principles document can only be signed in the
circumstances that exist today if tremendous international pressure
is brought to bear, since the objective prerequisites are lacking
for their voluntary acceptance.
“To a certain extent, steps taken to create confidence on the frontline
and a lessening of tensions can be considered as forward progress from
the agreements reached at Astrakhan and Sochi. There can be no progress
in the process of reaching agreements on any pivotal political issues
without the strengthening of stability on the border between Artsakh
and Azerbaijan. The establishment of a conducive environment in the
conflict zone is the minimum condition required for the continuation
of peaceful dialog,” noted Mayilyan.
He regards the recent statement issued by some twenty civic
organizations in Artsakh and the ARF regional office as a positive
step.
Today, in the Artsakh capital of Stepanakert, the Helsinki
Initiative-92 group will be organizing a discussion of the upcoming
Kazan meeting and shows the concern expressed by many as to the
possible damage the meeting might hold in store for Armenia and
Artsakh.
What is important, Mayilyan argues, is for the society at large in
Artsakh to make its voice heard on such vital issues.
MKR MP Arevik Petrosyan doesn’t believe anything of significance
will be agreed to at Kazan. “In all likelihood, what will be signed
in Kazan is yet another document that reconfirms the points of
prior documents. It depends if the United States wants to change the
situation but I don’t think it will exert any pressure in this regard,”
says MP Petrosyan.
Arkady Karapetyan, First Commander of the MKR’s Self-Defense Army,
says he hopes that nothing unacceptable will be signed at Kazan but
that “nothing can be ruled out.”
Commander Karapetyan puts his trust in the statement of the government
that “we are ready to sacrifice our lives in the defense of Artsakh.”
“The people don’t really care what Russia or the United States say
or believe. Average folk are more interested in the fundamentals –
having a roof over their heads and something to eat. They want their
kids to grow up in peace and go to school. These are the essentials
but it is up to our government to see that the necessary conditions
are safeguarded,” said Karapetyan.
The presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan, Serzh Sargsyan and Ilham
Aliyev, respectively, will sign a document in Kazan that will legally
oblige them to abandon the use of force to resolve the dispute,
reports Kommersant, citing Russian foreign ministry sources.
The parties are keeping the contents of the document to be signed in
Kazan strictly confidential. However, as a Western diplomat involved
in the preparation of the agreement told the Russian-language
publication, the core of the document lies in Armenia’s and
Azerbaijan’s unconditional acceptance of the Madrid Principles.
According to the unnamed source, until today, Baku and Yerevan were
satisfied with only a few principles, and each with his own. But now
they have been convinced to adopt these principles as a whole. The
decisive step, according to the source, was made at the trilateral
meeting in Sochi in March.
The agreed principles assume moving toward resolving the conflict
through phases – that is, a “road map.” First, the Basic Principles
in settling the conflict will be signed, after which Armenia and
Azerbaijan, under the mediation of Russia, US and France, will begin
to work on a peace treaty.
Then Yerevan will have to return the territories surrounding
Nagorno-Karabakh, including Fizuli, Aghdam, Djebrail, Zangelan,
Kubatly and Kelbajar, as well as the 13 villages in the Lachin region.
International peacekeepers will ensure security in these areas. And
there will be a corridor linking Armenia to Karabakh in the Lachin
region.
The legal status of Nagorno-Karabakh will be determined in a few years
by a referendum after the return of refugees. Above all, according
to the source, Yerevan and Baku will withdraw from use of force to
solve disputes and will do so through a legally binding document.
An agreement on Nagorno-Karabakh will be of particular importance to
Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, who began to get involved in the
reconciliation between Armenia and Azerbaijan immediately after the
Russo-Georgian war.
“The [Russian] president sees the Karabakh settlement as a personal
mission. Peace in the Caucasus is in Russia’s fundamental interests,
so we will continue our mediation efforts as much as necessary. Today,
Dmitry Medvedev will have a chance to declare that the mission is
almost accomplished.
“The only thing that could overshadow the triumph of the Russian
president is the unexpected surprises at the time of negotiations,”
the Kremlin source told Kommersant.
The publication’s Western diplomat source, however, warned that the
already achieved agreements could be disrupted as a result of “any
provocation in Nagorno-Karabakh.”
“If there are shots [fired] a few hours before or after the meeting
and if someone dies, the agreements might be put to an end,” said
the source. “This was the case in Sochi. The parties seemed to agree,
but the shooting at the line of contact narrowed it down to nothing.”
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