PARTNERSHIP WITH EGYPT IS PREDICTED BY TURKEY
By Anthony Shadid
The New York Times
September 19, 2011 Monday
ANKARA, Turkey — A newly assertive Turkey offered on Sunday a vision
of a starkly realigned Middle East, where the country’s former allies
in Syria and Israel fall into deeper isolation, and a burgeoning
alliance with Egypt underpins a new order in a region roiled by revolt
and revolution.
The portrait was described by Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu
of Turkey in an hourlong interview before he was to leave for the
United Nations, where a contentious debate was expected this week
over a Palestinian bid for recognition as a state. Viewed by many
as the architect of a foreign policy that has made Turkey one
of the most relevant players in the Muslim world, Mr. Davutoglu
pointed to that issue and others to describe a region in the midst
of a transformation. Turkey, he said, was “right at the center of
everything.”
He declared that Israel was solely responsible for the near collapse in
relations with Turkey, once an ally, and he accused Syria’s president
of lying to him after Turkish officials offered the government there
a “last chance” to salvage power by halting its brutal crackdown
on dissent.
Strikingly, he predicted a partnership between Turkey and Egypt, two
of the region’s militarily strongest and most populous and influential
countries, which he said could create a new axis of power at a time
when American influence in the Middle East seems to be diminishing.
“This is what we want,” Mr. Davutoglu said.
“This will not be an axis against any other country — not Israel, not
Iran, not any other country, but this will be an axis of democracy,
real democracy,” he added. “That will be an axis of democracy of
the two biggest nations in our region, from the north to the south,
from the Black Sea down to the Nile Valley in Sudan.”
His comments came after a tour last week by Turkish leaders — Prime
Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Mr. Davutoglu among them — of
Tunisia, Egypt and Libya, the three Arab countries that have undergone
revolutions this year. His criticism of old allies and embrace of new
ones underscored the confidence of Turkey these days, as it tries to
position itself on the winning side in a region unrecognizable from
a year ago.
Unlike an anxious Israel, a skeptical Iran and a United States whose
regional policy has been criticized as seeming muddled and even
contradictory at times, Turkey has recovered from early missteps to
offer itself as a model for democratic transition and economic growth
at a time when the Middle East and northern Africa have been seized by
radical change. The remarkably warm reception of Turkey in the Arab
world — a region Turks once viewed with disdain — is a development
almost as seismic as the Arab revolts and revolutions themselves.
Mr. Davutoglu credited a “psychological affinity” between Turkey and
much of the Arab world, which was ruled by the Ottoman Empire for
four centuries from Istanbul.
The foreign minister, 52, remains more scholar than politician,
though he has a diplomat’s knack for bridging divides. Cerebral
and soft-spoken, he offered a speech this summer to Libyan rebels
in Benghazi — in Arabic. Soon after the revolution in Tunisia, he
hailed the people there as the “sons of Ibn Khaldoun,” one of the
Arab world’s greatest philosophers, born in Tunis in the 14th century.
“We’re not here to teach you,” he said. “You know what to do. Ibn
Khaldoun’s grandsons deserve the best political system.”
That sense of cultural affinity has facilitated Turkey’s entry into
the region, as has the successful model of Mr. Davutoglu’s Justice
and Development Party, whose deeply pious leaders have won three
consecutive elections, presided over a booming economy and inaugurated
reform that has made Turkey a more liberal, modern and confident
place. Mr. Erdogan’s defense of Palestinian rights and criticism of
Israel — relations between Turkey and Israel collapsed after Israeli
troops killed nine people on board a Turkish flotilla trying to break
the blockade of Gaza in 2010 — has bolstered his popularity.
Last week, Mr. Erdogan was afforded a rapturous welcome in Egypt,
where thoroughfares were adorned with his billboard-size portraits.
(“Lend us Erdogan for a month!” wrote a columnist in Al Wafd, an
Egyptian newspaper.)
Mr. Davutolglu, who accompanied him there, said Egypt would become the
focus of Turkish efforts, as an older American-backed order, buttressed
by Israel, Saudi Arabia and, to a lesser extent, prerevolutionary
Egypt, begins to crumble. On the vote over a Palestinian state, the
United States, in particular, finds itself almost completely isolated.
He also predicted that Turkey’s $1.5 billion investment in Egypt
would grow to $5 billion within two years and that total trade would
increase to $5 billion, from $3.5 billion now, by the end of 2012,
then $10 billion by 2015. As if to underscore the importance Turkey
saw in economic cooperation, 280 businessmen accompanied the Turkish
delegation, and Mr. Davutoglu said they signed about $1 billion in
contracts in a single day.
“For democracy, we need a strong economy,” he said.
Other countries — Iran, Saudi Arabia and Israel — would undoubtedly
look upon an Egyptian-Turkish axis with alarm. Just a year ago,
Egypt’s own president, Hosni Mubarak, viewed Turkey, and Mr. Erdogan
in particular, with skepticism and suspicion. But in the view of Mr.
Davutoglu, such an alliance was a force for stability.
“For the regional balance of power, we want to have a strong, very
strong Egypt,” said Mr. Davutoglu, who has visited the Egyptian
capital five times since Mr. Mubarak was overthrown in February.
“Some people may think Egypt and Turkey are competing. No. This is
our strategic decision. We want a strong Egypt now.”
The phrase “zero problems” is a famous dictum written by Mr.
Davutoglu, who served as Mr. Erdogan’s chief foreign policy adviser
before becoming foreign minister. By it, he meant that Turkey would
strive to end conflicts with its neighbors. Successes have been few.
Problems remain with Armenia, and Turkey was unable to resolve the
conflict in Cyprus, still divided into Greek and Turkish zones.
Turkey’s agreement to host a radar installation as part of a NATO
missile defense system has rankled neighboring Iran.
Most spectacularly, its relations with Israel collapsed after the
Israeli government refused a series of Turkish demands that followed
the attack on the boat: an apology, compensation for the victims and
a lifting of Israel’s blockade on the Gaza Strip.
“Nobody can blame Turkey or any other country in the region for its
isolation,” he said of Israel. “It was Israel and the government’s
decision to isolate themselves. And they will be isolated even more
if they continue this policy of rejecting any proposal.”
Caught by surprise by the Arab revolts — as pretty much everyone
was — Turkey staggered. At least $15 billion in investments were
lost in the civil war in Libya, and Turkish diplomats initially
opposed NATO’s intervention. For years, Turkey cultivated ties with
Syria’s president, Bashar al-Assad, seeing Syria as its fulcrum for
integrating the region’s economies. Mr. Erdogan and Mr. Assad counted
themselves as friends.
Syria’s failure to — as Mr. Davutoglu put it — heed Turkey’s advice
has wrecked relations, and Turkey is now hosting Syrian opposition
conferences and groups.
Last month, in meetings that lasted more than six hours, Mr. Davutoglu
said Mr. Assad agreed on a Turkish road map — announcing a
specific date for parliamentary elections by year’s end, repealing
a constitutional provision that enshrined power in the ruling Baath
Party, drafting a constitution by the newly elected Parliament and
then holding another election once the constitution decided between
a presidential or a parliamentary system. Despite face-to-face
assurances, Mr. Assad did not follow through.
“For us, that was the last chance,” Mr. Davutoglu said.
Asked if he felt betrayed, he replied, “Yes, of course.”
Mr. Davutoglu accused Mr. Assad of “not fulfilling promises and not
telling the truth.”
“This is the illusion of autocratic regimes,” he said. “They think that
in a few days they will control the situation. Not today, but tomorrow,
next week, next month. They don’t see. And this is a vicious circle.”