Author: Badalian Vardan

AZERBAIJAN-ARMENIA: MILITARY BALANCE AND PROSPECTS OF WAR

AzeriReport

Nov 21 2011

WASHINGTON DC. November 21, 2011: Concerns over possible war in
Nagorno-Karabakh are rising in Washington DC, as both Armenia and
Azerbaijan have, reportedly, intensified their arms race over the
past years.

As several military sources told Turan’s Washington, DC correspondent,
both Baku and Yerevan kept secret information on their military
equipment from their western partners, until recent events that
drastically changed their passive policy.

“In 2010, Russia renewed its leasing agreement with Armenia for
the military base in Gumri for next 40 years. Azerbaijan signed
the military pact with Turkey immediately after it. In response,
Armenia publicly admitted to its sophistication of air defense systems
protecting the skies of Yerevan”, the source reminds.

In recent military photos, Armenia has showed its SCUD ballistic
missiles for the first time. This was in retaliation to Azerbaijan’s
latest purchase of the S-300PMU-2, which was immediately demonstrated
in a military parade.

“The question here is whether these two nations are slowly moving
towards the tides of war?” asks a Pentagon source. In its most recent
research, the US-based open-source military analysis IMINT & Analysis,
based on the Google Earth satellite imagery of air defense systems,
described Armenia’s SCUD missiles as “a danger to Baku’s oil fields”.

“Open sources confirm a huge disparity in military acquisition and
these are best confirmed with military photos and military parades
from both nations”, notes the paper.

In terms of tank forces, the source says, Azerbaijan has 300-400 tanks
and Armenia has 160 although this figure does not include the tanks
from the enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh, which can be roughly estimated
at 300 as well, so, in terms of amour both seem equally matched.

Armenia can have a slight advantage if 20 T-80s are considered a
superior tank. Azerbaijan has mentioned negotiations of T-84 tanks from
Ukraine and this can again tip the balance. The figures continue in
armored personal carriers, light tanks and armored infantry fighting
vehicles in which Azerbaijan has outnumbered Armenia.

Azerbaijan’s military advantage is not only the sheer size of its
army; it is the acquisition of artillery and modern MLRSs. They have
purchased the Smerch MLRS from Russia, one of the most powerful in
its class, which can devastate the Nagorno-Karabakh enclave.

In terms of artillery, Azerbaijan has acquired approximately 180 D-
30 and 34 D-20; Armenia, on the other hand, has 90 D-20 and 34 D-30,
a sizable gap. Azerbaijan’s air force also has the opportunity to
inflict damage to Nagorno-Karabakh due to the enclave’s current legacy
SAM systems in place.

Although Azerbaijan’s air force lacks air to ground avionics or any
true potential guided munitions, its UAV acquisition can be a decoy
for the single target capability of legacy systems. Their vast fleet
of Mig-29s (FULCRUM), up to 30, according to some sources, along with 8
Su-24MRs (FENCER-E) and 30 Su-25s (FROGFOOT) is enough for a heightened
war if necessary. The UAVs can also provide real time information for
ground troops, which in modern air warfare can be a major advantage.

Armenia proved some resistance with their air defense systems in the
enclave with their takedown of an Azeri Hermes 450 UAV. UAV service
ceiling heights are approx 5km and their slow speed makes them an easy
target though it proves Armenia’s situational awareness. Armenia’s air
force consist of 15 Su-25s for ground attack and with Azerbaijan’s
robust overlapping air defense on the border of Nagorno-Karabakh,
their effort will be minimal deeper into hostile territory.

“Armenia’s latest military parade provided valuable information in
terms of military inventory. It also provided the world an insight
into Armenia’s growing confidence in recent years. Alongside the
S-300PS (SA-10B GRUMBLE), adding additional 6-target capability
for Yerevan as well as the mobility to deploy to Nagorno-Karabakh,
it also demonstrated the never seen before Tochka (SS-21 SCARAB)
SRBMs”, writes the source.

Azerbaijan’s military parade with its continued rhetoric is a stark
reminder of Azerbaijan’s attitude to a renewed conflict. The parade
went all out in UAV, MLRSs, artillery and aerobatic shows.

“What advantage does Armenia have? With no resources to provide
the major powers, no pipelines or pipeline routes, no geopolitical
advantage, Armenia on paper has anything in terms of geopolitical
power or weapons. Armenia’s air defense will be robust in any
limited attack from any air force though the issue at hand is
Nagorno-Karabakh. Nagorno-Karabakh’s only offer to resistance is
its fortified trench system at the moment and its confidence from
the victory in the 90s.”, says the paper, adding, for Azerbaijan,
their superiority is sheer size and a well-organized and coordinated
attack can yield results though occupation will be another matter.

Azerbaijan’s loss in the 90s is part of the national psyche and a
rematch is something they yearn for.

“Analysts feel that Armenia might possibly give away a few territories
in a renewed conflict to shorten the war and keep Azerbaijan satisfied
with their victory, as no re- settlement will ever take place for
Azerbaijan as long as Armenian’s villagers live in Nagorno-Karabakh”,
notesIMINT & Analysis, adding,

“this can be a major issue for the peace process even if Armenia agrees
to hand over territory in any peace deal. The major game played by
Russia was the selling of the S300PMU-2, totally negating Armenia’s
SCUD missiles”.

The source is also curious: Does Russia want to protect the oil
fields? Are they providing Azerbaijan permission to start a war?

Many questions need to be asked in order to understand this situation
and to understand the possibilities of renewing the conflict. This
intensity has only been felt recently as deepening tides of war have
hit the surface of both nations (Turan).

IRAN’S NUCLEAR PROGRAM: THE VIEW FROM THE CAUCASUS
by ZAUR SHIRIYEV

Today’s Zaman
Nov 22 2011
Turkey

Iran is the main foreign-policy challenge for both the US and Israel,
and is the focal point for anxiety in the Middle East.

The central aim of Western policy in the MENA region is to prevent
Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons and to neutralize its strategic
political significance. At the moment, Iran is countering the US and
Israel in the MENA region with regard to Syria — nothing would weaken
Tehran’s position more than losing Syria. However, the International
Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) recent report presented intelligence
indicating that Iran has undertaken research and experiments geared to
developing nuclear weapons capability, news which stoked international
tensions and prompted the Arab League’s decision to threaten Syria
with the suspension of its membership and to call upon member states
to withdraw their ambassadors from Damascus — both of which would
weaken Tehran.

As tensions increase in the Middle East and Western powers express
concern over Iran, the South Caucasus countries that share borders with
Iran are primarily concerned with the possible consequences of military
intervention and the potential impact of such hostility. The primary
concerns across the Caucasus region are related to the potentially
catastrophic consequences of military intervention against Iran, which
could create thousands of internally displaced persons (IDPs), which
would in turn be disastrous for its border countries. In addition,
Georgia and Azerbaijan have for the past several years been anxious
about drug trafficking in the region, an issue that only seems to
be getting worse. The US International Narcotics Control Strategy
Report says the route begins in Afghanistan and that drugs are
transited through Iran. From the perspective of Azerbaijan, the
132-kilometer part of the border between Azerbaijan and Iran, which
is under the occupation of Armenia, is a danger zone. According to
Azerbaijani security services, the border area is actively used for the
production, transit and trafficking of drugs, arms and human beings,
money laundering and other international crimes.

A further concern is Iran’s deployment of Tehran clericals to support
radical religious movements in the Caucasus — particularly Muslim
Azerbaijan. Tehran’s official strategy is to remain fairly quiet on
the matter, but the mullahs have publicly demonstrated “solidarity”
with fundamentalists. And while constantly talking about “brotherhood
and solidar­ity” with Azerbaijan, the Iranian government is depriving
millions of Azerbaijanis of the opportunity to be educated in their
na­tive language and to have cultural autonomy. The most serious
problem today in north Iran (southern Azerbaijan) concerns Lake Urmia,
which has lost 60 percent of its water and is rapidly drying up. The
Iranian government claims that this problem has natural causes,
but some experts believe that this is the result of artificial
interventions.

With regard to Iran’s nuclear capacity, both the question and
its answers paralyze the South Caucasus. Georgia has chosen not to
officially declare its position; the central motivation of Tbilisi’s
foreign policy is “not to have bad relations with anyone.” This policy
does reap some rewards, as demonstrated by the numbers of Iranian
tourists streaming into Georgia: During the first 10 months of 2011,
Iranian tourists ranked 6th among all foreign visitors to Georgia.

There have also been rumors of Tbilisi’s role in protecting the US from
possible Iranian missile strikes. In fact, on Feb. 3 of this year,
four Republican senators called for the consideration of Georgia as
an alternative site for locating a NATO missile defense system-related
radar, for protection against possible missile attacks from Iran.

In relation to this concern, Azerbaijan for several years has been
cooperating with the US on WMD. The government signed an agreement in
September 1999, pledging its cooperation in the counter-proliferation
of nuclear, chemical and biological weapons and related materials.

Azerbaijan’s official position on the resolution of the Iranian
nuclear problem is to support diplomatic negotiations. However,
Azerbaijan accepts the use of nuclear power as a military threat, as
seen in its Military Doctrine, which details the danger of “separate
states, organizations and terrorist groups obtaining nuclear and
other weapons of mass destruction and their means of delivery and
dissemination of new technologies in military production.” Reshad
Karimov, a military expert, gives insight into Azerbaijan’s difficult
position with regard to Iranian nuclear capacity. According to him:
“Azerbaijan, as a newly elected member of the UNSC [United Nations
Security Council] with the rotating chairmanship, now actually needs
to state its position on Iranian sanctions, not just comply with
their implementation. Our possible support for further sanctions will
endanger the existing balance.”

Armenian leaders have made clear Iran’s broader geopolitical
significance for their landlocked country, and have emphasized
what they have long described as Tehran’s “balanced” position
on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Therefore, critiques of Iran’s
nuclear capability have come only from a few experts. Nonetheless,
Armenia-Iran relations have an indirect impact on the nuclear issue.

Recently, in an interview with the Armenian A+1 Agency, Metsamor NPP’s
chief engineer Movses Vardanyan said that “over the recent years,
about 20 people have left the Armenian NPP due to low salaries, and
have found jobs at the Bushehr NPP in Iran,” as reported by Armenia
Today’s Oct. 29 edition. Furthermore, WikiLeaks cables revealed that
Iran’s “Bank Mellat” transferred millions of dollars to Iran from the
bank’s branch office in Yerevan. The cables also allege that rockets
and ma­chine guns purchased by Iran from Armenia were used by two
Shia militants in an attack in Iraq — a United States soldier was
killed and six others were injured in these attacks. Officially these
stories were denied, but given the political context, many believe
them to be true.

In the short term, the developments will lead to increased sanctions
towards Iran, whereby the ruling clique will feel besieged and under
threat, which could give new impetus to the counter power in Iran.

Moreover, this fragility creates yet more mistrust, misperceptions
and geopolitical paranoia. Iran’s dilemma over losing its “balance”
in the Middle East is intensifying, and at the same time its position
in the Caucasus is weakening.

ARABKIR DISTRICT GOVERNOR SACKED

epress.am
11.22.2011

Eduard Musheghyan, governor of the Yerevan administrative district
of Arabkir, has ben sacked, a reliable source informed Epress.am.

Apparently, on Tuesday, presented to the staff will be the new district
governor – Republican Party of Armenia member Hrayr Antinyan, who
was previously deputy district governor.

Recall, Musheghyan was appointed district governor during former mayor
Karen Karapetyan’s term. Local media reported that he was Karapetyan’s
childhood friend.

PRIME MINISTER: “THE PROBLEMS CONCERNING THE ARMENIANS IN ADJARA ARE IN THE CENTER OF ATTENTION OF RA GOVERNMENT.”

Office of the Prime Minister

Nov 21 2011
Armenia

During his two-day working visit to Georgia, the Prime Minister
met with the representatives of the Armenian community of Adjara
in the Holy Savior Armenian church in Batumi. Welcoming them,
the Prime Minister presented the results of the Armenian-Georgian
intergovernmental commission sitting. Tigran Sargsyan noted that the
meeting had a special significance, because issues on inter-community
relations between the two countries have been discussed.

The Prime Minister said that such meetings with the Georgian
partners are an attempt to find solutions satisfying the needs of
the communities. Tigran Sargsyan assured the Armenians of Adjara
that the problems concerning them are in the center of attention of
RA Government. “We will continue to work with out Georgian partners,
in order to solve these problems stage by stage,” said the head of
the government. Tigran Sargsyan had a direct conversation with the
representatives of the community, who have presented their main
concerns to the Prime Minister.

The pastor of Adjara Ter Ararat Gumbaryan asked Tigran Sargsyan
to assist the construction of a cultural center near the Holy
Savor’s Church, because currently, the Sunday school classes and the
community’s cultural events take place in the church, which is not
appropriate for a religious institution. Tigran Sargsyan promised to
take up this issue.

After the meeting with the community, Tigran Sargsyan and the PM of
Georgia Nika Gilauri visited the Justice Palace of Batumi, where he
was introduced to a number of technological innovations which enable
providing one window services to citizens.

COMPUTER CENTER FOR BLIND AND VISUALLY IMPAIRED OPENS IN YEREVAN

PanARMENIAN.Net
November 21, 2011 – 13:52 AMT

PanARMENIAN.Net – On November 21, Yerevan’s Saryan 22 Haypost
subsidiary hosted opening ceremony of Internet Access Center for
the blind and visually impaired at the initiative of RA Ministry of
Transport and Communication, Regional Department of the International
Telecommunications Union of CIS countries (ITU) and UNESCO Institute
for Information Technologies.

As vice-chairman of Internet Society NGO Grigor Saghyan noted, the
hall and access to the internet were provided by Haypost CJSC and
Internet Society NGO respectively.

The computer center is equipped with 15 interactive whiteboards and
15 computers with a keyboard, monitor and video camera running on
the Braille system. 5 of 15 computers are intended for the blind,
the rest – for visually impaired.

During the opening ceremony RA Minister of transport and communication
Manuk Vardanyan noted the center as the only one in CIS.

ARMENIAN EXPERT ADVISES TURKISH MP TO CHECK THEIR ARCHIVES

PanARMENIAN.Net
November 21, 2011 – 16:02 AMT

PanARMENIAN.Net – On October 21, 2009, Armenian-Turkish protocols
were discussed in Turkish Parliament, turkologist Ruben Melkonyan said.

“If Boskir does not know that protocols have already been discussed
in Turkish Parliament, he would better check their archives. It will
be naïve from the Armenian side to expect any developments due to
Turkey’s unconstructive position in the issue,” the turkologist told
a PanARMENIAN.Net reporter commenting on Turkish MP Mustafa Boskir’s
statement regarding Armenian-Turkish protocols.

Ruben Melkonyan also noted that due to Turkish stance on the issue
Ankara more than once was urged to give various explanations.

Armenian-Turkish normalization process started on RA President Serzh
Sargsyan’s initiative in fall 2008. On October 10, 2009 Armenian and
Turkish Foreign Ministers signed protocols expected to be ratified
by parliaments of both states.

In August 2011, the protocols were removed from Turkish parliament’s
agenda and were brough back in October.

RAUL DE LUZENBERGER: ARMENIA HAS POLITICAL WILL TO IMPLEMENT REFORMS

PanARMENIAN.Net
November 21, 2011 – 18:42 AMT

PanARMENIAN.Net – Armenian Prime Minster Tigran Sargsyan met the
head of EC Delegation to Armenia, Ambassador Raul de Luzenberger,
completing his diplomatic mission in the republic.

At the meeting, the PM thanked the Ambassador for his major
contribution to the development of Armenia-EU ties.

The Ambassador, in turn, gave high assessment to his cooperation
with Armenian authorities, stressing the country’s political will
in implementation of reforms. The Ambassador expressed readiness
to continue cooperation with Armenian partners to further improve
Armenia-EU ties, governmental press service reported.

ARTSAKH PRESIDENT DISCUSSES ISSUES ON INTRODUCING MODERN TECHNOLOGIES TO THE SPHERE OF CONSTRUCTION IN THE NKR

ARMENPRESS
NOVEMBER 22, 2011
YEREVAN

On 21 November Artsakh Republic President Bako Sahakyan received in Los
Angeles American Armenian entrepreneur, chairman of the “EcoPanelGroup”
company Khachik Khachikyan and architect Sevak Petrosyan.

Central information department of the office of the Artsakh Republic
President informed that issues related to introducing modern
technologies to the sphere of construction in the NKR were discussed
during the meeting. President Sahakyan considered important application
of modern construction methods in Artsakh especially in house building
and cooperation with the Diaspora in this field.

Primate of the Artsakh Diocese of the Armenian Apostolic Church
Archbishop Pargev Martirosyan, head of the central information
department of the office of the Artsakh Republic President David
Babayan, NKR permanent representative to USA and Canada Robert
Avetisyan partook at the meeting.

ARF CENTRAL COMMITTEE OF FRANCE CALLS ON SARKOZY TO CONDEMN PROPOSAL FOR GENOCIDE COMMISSION

armradio.am
22.11.2011 12:17

The Armenian Revolutionary Federation Central Committee of France
issued a statement calling on President Nicolas Sarkozy to condemn his
foreign minister’s proposal to establish a commission that would study
the Armenian Genocide, Asbarez reports referring to Nouvelles Armenie.

Speaking during a press conference last week in Turkey, French Foreign
Minister Alain Juppe called the period of the Armenian Genocide hard
for both Armenians and Turks and expressed France’s willingness for
the establishment of a commission to study the Armenian Genocide.

While visiting Armenia last month, Sarkozy, in no uncertain terms
called on Turkey to recognize the Armenian Genocide. He added that
if Turkey did not come to terms with its past, other countries would
have to step in to right the historical wrong.

The statement of the Armenian Revolutionary Federation Central
Committee of France reads: “The ARF learned of the intention
expressed by Alain Juppe to set up a commission of Armenian and
Turkish historians in France to study the period in the history
regarding the Armenian Genocide.

ARF is furious at the Foreign Minister for his remarks, which
potentially cast doubt on the veracity of the Armenian Genocide. Such
statements are not acceptable. They contain hints of policy of denial.

Statements by Alain Juppe significantly minimize the words of
[President] Nicolas Sarkozy, who called on Turkey to recognize the
Armenian Genocide.

The French government can not simultaneously call on Turkey to
recognize the Armenian Genocide and propose a commission of historians
which must decide on the reality of the Armenian Genocide.

This is an intolerable contradiction by the French authorities,
who apparently decided to play a game of double standards of truth
and denial. This impression is further reinforced by the fact that
when Nicolas Sarkozy was in Armenia, [France’s Interior Minister]
Claude Gueant was hastily dispatched to Turkey.

We can not bear this duplicity and ask Sarkozy to express open
disapproval of the position of Alain Juppe, contrary to President’s
statements made in Yerevan. The Armenian community is angered and
looks forward to decisive action by the President of the Republic.

Inclusion of the bill criminalizing denial of Armenian Genocide in
the Senate’s agenda is urgent. Nicolas Sarkozy promised to do so in
Yerevan, let him keep his promise.”

Second child dies at hospital

02:21 pm | November 19, 2011 | Social

The Gasparyans’ second child, Arman died at the scientific center for
radiation medicine burns in Yerevan. He was 4 years old.

On November 14 at around 11:30, a fire that broke out from a heater
left one of the homes in Gogaran village burnt. Three children were
transferred to the hospital with burns of different degrees, and Aren
Gasparyan, 3, died there on the same day.

The second child with burns, 3-year old Gor Gasparyan is still at the hospital.