SYRIA: COOL AGREEMENT BETWEEN PARIS AND ANKARA
Marc Semo
Liberation
Feb 22 2012
France
[translated from French]
The two countries have for months been the most engaged in connection
with Syria and are both calling for an international conference of
“friends of Syria” with the Arab League, the United States, and the
principal European countries. The first one will take place in Tunis
Friday [ 24 February,] as desired by Paris. The second is expected to
take place in Istanbul, as designed by Ankara. But though the French
and Turkish authorities are indeed acting in unison to mobilize
the international community, they are now open rivals and… are no
longer speaking to each other. Or only indirectly, and absolutely
not about Syria.
“Rivalry” – “All contacts now take place only via intermediary
researchers,” one diplomat complained. In retaliation against the
law sanctioning the negation of the Armenian genocide, Ankara has
decided to freeze military and political relations. “In connection with
Syria, Turkey knows that it is crucial and wishes clearly to remind
the French authorities that they can do nothing without it,” we were
told by Kadri Gursel, foreign policy editorialist for centre left daily
Milliyet. The two countries’ positions on a major international crisis
are nevertheless closer than they have been for a long time. “There
is as much a rivalry as emulation between the two foreign ministers,
Ahmet Davutoglu and Alain Juppe, who share the same convictions
about the pressing need to halt the Ba’thist regime’s massacres,”
according to Khaled Khodja, the representative in Turkey of the
Syrian National Council (SNC,) the main opposition organization,
which has for the for the past four months had an official bureau,
not far from Istanbul airport, the first of its kind.
The Syrian crisis is a crucial test for Turkish diplomacy, which
is increasingly active on the regional scene. Having long hesitated
last spring in response to the population’s revolt and having urged
Bashir al-Asad [Syrian president] to “heed his people,” the Turkish
Government, worried about the danger of destabilization facing
its southern neighbour, with which it shares an 800 km border,
has called increasing openly for regime change. “We wanted Al-Asad
to be Syria’s Gorbachev, but he has chosen to be its Milosevic, and
that’s the whole problem,” Ahmet Davutoglu told students 10 February,
during a five-day visit to Washington. The rather unusual duration of
his visit highlights Turkey’s importance in bringing aid to Syria’s
civilian population and even establishing “humanitarian corridors,”
a possibility first mentioned last fall by the French foreign minister,
but also by his Turkish counterpart.
Indeed for the present everything is blocked because such a deployment
would require the Syrian authorities’ approval or a resolution from
the UN Security Council, which is currently paralysed by the veto from
Moscow and Beijing. But the international community is increasing the
pressure, as shown by the massive vote at the UN General assembly to
support the resolution submitted by the Arab League, with the West’s
backing. “It grants legitimacy to a humanitarian intervention by the
international community, even if only a Security Council resolution
can grant it a legal framework,” according to one diplomat, who
pointed out that Ankara will in any case not act on its own.
The authorities have already planned “buffer zones” on their soil
which could, in the event of an emergency, receive a huge influx
of refugees. Since the summer they have already hosted some 5,000
refugees near Antioch, but also some 100 deserters, including Col
Riyad al-Asad, who says he is the leader of the Free Syrian Army and
who grants interviews in the presence of Turkish diplomats. “The
Islamic-conservative government that has been in power since 2000
faces a huge challenge: if Turkey is not at the centre of an operation
for Syria, it will deal a heavy blow to the entire credibility of
the policy pursued in the Middle Eas t in recent years and to the
popularity gained by Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan in the
region,” according to international relations expert Soli Ozel.
But apart from their loud statements, the authorities remain cautious
in practice. They fear suffering the repercussions of the Syrian
conflict, with a resumption of the Kurdish rebellion, stoked by
Damascus, or even increased tensions between the large Sunni majority
who support the Syrian revolt and the Alevis, a progressive Shi’i
sect who account for one-third of the population.
Gas – Furthermore, the Syrian regime’s last remaining allies, Iran and
Russia, are Turkey’s neighbours and its principal gas suppliers. The
left wing opposition, which was the first to condemn al-Asad’s blind
repression back in the spring, openly criticizes the “adventurism”
of Turkish diplomacy. Osman Koroturk, deputy and pillar of the Foreign
Affairs Committee, said: “The government wants to export democracy to
our neighbours, despite the fact that it’s in an increasingly sorry
state in Turkey itself.”
[translated from French]