IRAN AND THE AZERI PROBLEM
March 28, 2012:
Earlier this month Azerbaijan police arrested 22 suspected Iranian
agents and accused them of planning terror attacks on American
and Israeli targets. Azerbaijan has been chasing down and arresting
Iran-backed terrorists and spies for years. This time they discovered
that some of the people they arrested had been recruited by Iran, as
spies, as far back as 1999. Now Iran is increasingly using terrorism
to influence what goes on in Azerbaijan.
Iran has long been keeping a close eye on Azerbaijan. This is because
most of the Turkic and Moslem Azeris live in Iran. Up until 1813,
modern Azerbaijan was part of Iran. Armenia and Azerbaijan were the
last conquests of Russia as it advanced down the Caucasus region
(between the Black and Caspian Seas) in the 18th and 19th centuries.
The Russians stopped when they ran into the Turkish and Iranian
empires.
In effect, most of “Azerbaijan” is in Iran and Iran has long hoped to
reunite all Azeris under their rule. Currently, about a quarter of the
Iranian population is Azeri, and many have risen to senior positions
in the government. Despite that, most Azeris would like all Azeris
united in a single Azerbaijan. This is not a popular idea within Iran.
The Russians, on the other hand, have come to accept the loss of
Azerbaijan and Armenia.
Iranians, both individually and collectively, have been increasingly
aggressive towards Azerbaijan over the last decade. For example,
last month hackers calling themselves the Iranian Cyber Army, and
similar names, defaced media web sites in Azerbaijan. This was in
response to Azerbaijan arresting locals and Iranians for trying to
organize terror attacks on Israeli targets. Iran is also unhappy
with the growing diplomatic and economic ties Azerbaijan has with
Israel. Azerbaijan has ordered nearly two billion dollars of Israeli
weapons and military equipment. This was very unpopular with Iran,
which believes that Israel must be destroyed and that any Islamic
state that supports Israel deserves much the same.
Two years ago, all this Iranian hostility, and disputes with
neighboring Armenia, led oil rich Azerbaijan to increase its defense
budget 87 percent, to $3.1 billion. Nearly half the budget was spent
to modernize the armed forces. A lot of the cash was quietly spent
on improved counter-terrorism capabilities. Israel was providing
advisors and special equipment to detect and deal with growing Iranian
sponsored Islamic terrorism in Azerbaijan. This Israeli connection,
and especially the growing success of the Azeris in countering Iranian
terror efforts, has infuriated the Iranians.
Located on the Caspian Sea, in the Caucasus, Azerbaijan was part of
the Soviet Union until 1991, and much of its military equipment is of
Cold War vintage. Azerbaijan is 95 percent Moslem (85 percent Shia),
and has some serious territorial disputes with its Christian neighbor,
Armenia. The two countries have been at each other’s throats for
nearly two decades because of a land dispute. Although Azerbaijan
has three times more people and much more money (because of oil),
the Armenians are better soldiers, and the dispute has been stalemated.
Azerbaijan has a population of nine million and a GPD of $72 billion
compared to 3.2 million Armenians who have a GDP of $10 billion.
Azerbaijan is determined to reverse this string of defeats, no matter
the cost.
Last year Armenia signed a pact with Russia that, in effect, makes
it a protectorate of Russia. The deal extends the lease on a Russian
military base in Armenia from 2020 to 2044. The 3,000 man Russian
force in Armenia may be increased and Russia, in effect, guarantees
Armenia’s security. Armenia needs all the help it can get, as it is a
landlocked Christian nation surrounded by three hostile Moslem states
(Turkey, Azerbaijan and Iran). To the north, there is Georgia which,
while Christian, has its own problems with Russia. This deal makes
any major move against Armenia by Azerbaijan very risky. While the
Russians want to remain friendly with Azerbaijan, they have definitely
taken sides here.
In return for this security, Armenia will have to follow Russia’s
lead in diplomacy, and any other area the Russians feel is important.
Meanwhile, the Russians will provide new weapons and equipment for
the 43,000 troops in the Armenian military, and help arm an even
larger reserve force.
The only active enemy Armenia has at the moment is Azerbaijan. Both
countries continue to disagree over possession of Nagorno-Karabakh,
a 4,400 square kilometer district, full of Armenians, surrounded by
Azerbaijani territory. Technically, there has been a truce between
Armenia and Azerbaijan since 1994. But it has been a hot truce.
Between 1991 and 1994 there was a war between the two countries over
Nagorno-Karabakh, which Armenia won. Some 20,000 people died, and over
a million (400,000 Armenians and 700,000 Azerbaijanis) fled their homes
as Armenia occupied 31,000 square kilometers of Azerbaijani territory,
to connect Nagorno-Karabakh to Armenia. Most of the refugees were
from areas dominated by one group, who drove out the minority. Some
40,000 Azerbaijani civilians were driven from Nagorno-Karabakh. The
situation was humiliating for Azerbaijan, who saw it as yet another
example of more powerful and wealthier (via oil fields) Moslems being
defeated by a smaller number of armed and more capable non-Moslems.
The Armenians have survived, although surrounded by Moslems, for
centuries. But the Armenian economy is a disaster, particularly since
Turkey and Azerbaijan have closed their borders with Armenia. Since
the early 1990s, the best educated Armenians have been emigrating.
They join a six million strong community of expatriate Armenians. This
group can raise millions of dollars on short notice, and have provided
the emergency funds when needed for the fighting against Azerbaijan.
Some twelve percent of the 150,000 Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh are
armed and organized to defend the mountainous area, and are backed
up by even more troops in Armenia.
But Azerbaijan is making a serious effort to create an effective
military, and revive their economy. Azeri defeats at the hands
of better trained, led and organized Armenian troops were caused,
in part, by Azerbaijani corruption and double dealing among themselves.
Moreover, the Armenians have a military tradition going back
centuries. The Azeris are working hard to redress the military balance,
thus the Armenian need for a Russian alliance, and the sharp jump in
Azeri military spending. But while Armenia only has to worry about
one enemy, Azerbaijan has both Armenia and Iran to deal with.
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