The prospect of losing the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh to Azerbaijan has Armenians bracing for another humanitarian catastrophe.
YEREVAN — Walk around Yerevan, the capital Armenia, and you’ll notice two flags flying from most flagpoles and many windowsills of the city’s eclectic buildings, from grand Stalin-era blocks of flats to ultra-modern museums. One is the national tricolour of red, blue and apricot, the colours used during the medieval period when the French House of Lusignan ruled the region. The second is the emblem of the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh, almost identical to Armenia’s but with an added carpet-inspired motif.
The prominence of the Karabakhi flag here reveals how strongly locals feel about the region, an ethnic Armenian enclave inside neighbouring Azerbaijan that has been disputed for decades. But Armenia, after a catastrophic defeat by Azerbaijan, its long-time enemy, in a 2020 war, is on the cusp of giving up on Nagorno-Karabakh. A deal to resolve the decades-old conflict appears to be closer than ever, on terms which many in Yerevan feel amount to a de facto Armenian surrender. Many fear that the peace deal could result in the region’s centuries-old ethnic Armenian population facing mass displacement.
Accordingly, the mood in Yerevan is grim. “A sense of helplessness and powerlessness permeates Armenian society,” said Karena Avedissian, a political scientist and editor for EVN Report, an Armenian new website, when I met her in Yerevan in late May. My arrival in the country had coincided with a seeming rapprochement between Armenia and Azerbaijan, with rounds of negotiations mediated by the US, EU and Russia. Nikol Pashinyan, the Armenian prime minister, now regularly meets Ilham Aliyev, the Azerbaijani president.
In many ways Armenians have reason to be optimistic about the future. Outwardly the capital is booming. The country’s economy has flourished since the war in Ukraine began, largely because of an influx of Russian citizens. At first Russians fled south for political reasons, fearing government repression and the army draft. They would often work remotely in professional jobs once they had arrived. Now a different type of Russian can be seen across the city: tourists, exploring one of the few destinations still open to them. Russians from Moscow to Volgograd take advantage of plentiful direct flights to Armenia. They can be seen strolling around Yerevan’s grand Soviet-era Republic Square and frequenting the new coffee shops and pizza parlours opened by émigrés.