THE SOUTH CAUCASUS: NEW GEOPOLITICAL REALITIES
Vestnik Kavkaza, Russia
April 5 2013
Yesterday, at the History Department of the Moscow State University,
the scientific-practical conference “South Caucasus. Elections:
new geopolitical realities. Economy, security, humanitarian issues”
was held.
The moderator of the conference, Alexei Vlasov, editor in chief of
Vestnik Kavkaza, noted that 2013 would be full of various political
events which could influence the situation in the region. The South
Caucasus entered into a long election cycle. Elections in Armenia have
just ended. Presidential election in Azerbaijan and Georgia will be
held in autumn. Vlasov sees two initiatives in the political field
– the Eurasian project which is being formed by Russia and Eastern
Partnership which is being formed by the EU.
Alla Yazykova, head of the Mediterranean-Black Sea Center of Institute
of Europe of RAS, stated that “summarizing the results of the Russian
policy in the South Caucasus in the last two decades, we must admit
that the result was gradual weakening of Russia’s position in the
region and in its relations with Georgia, Azerbaijan, and more recently
to some extent with Armenia. Now, in my opinion, the communication
with the EU is much more difficult than even with the United States,
given the crisis and confusing situation in the EU.
Assessing the prospects for relations in general with the South
Caucasus, it cannot be denied that the military conflict in the
Caucasus worsened Russia’s relations with the Western world and, in
particular, with Georgia and the subsequent global financial crisis
make us think about the future trajectory of most Russian policy and
how it responds to the challenges faced. Meeting the challenges of
maintaining stability on the southern borders of Russia, as well
as the historical basis of its relations with the peoples of the
South Caucasus, requires overcoming the existing contradictions in
the relations with the countries of the region, on the one hand, and
cooperation with the international community in solving its problems,
on the other hand. This requires the development of new strategic
approaches and finding solutions in dealing with major world powers
and their unions.”
Alexander Dzasokhov, Trustee of the Russian Council on International
Affairs, paid attention to the dialogue between the countries of the
region. “A new geopolitical cycle has come. This should be kept in
view, because after a failed attempt of a unipolar world and a bipolar
world, a quite understandable period has come when neighbors, and
often not even the neighboring states in the geographical sense, seek
common interests to form a multi-polar world. This is the first point.
The second point is related to the fact that until 2004 there were
regular meetings of the Caucasian states. This occurred most often
with a few exceptions, within the CIS summit. In the autumn of 2004,
when a political force, as they say, Saakashvili, came to power,
this enhancement was unreal. And it is strange, if you look at our
Caucasus, the Greater Caucasus. This is a rare and very exceptional
case when the countries of the region are not collected together and
do not see any urgent issues, issues of new challenges and strategic
issues. Do not assume that I may be getting ahead of our ability,
but we must draw attention to the subject, to form public opinion,
because we are conduct disunited discussions, and even if they are at
a substantial level, but there is no resonance, we do not achieve the
goal. We need, perhaps, to raise the level of discussion. So I would
even think of a good, thorough preparation of all-Caucasian forum
of not only the authorities, but what is more important – powerful,
existing and operating with a reputation and expertise civil society
organizations,” Dzasokhov said.
Speaking about Russian-Georgian relations, Alexander Skakov, the
coordinator of the working group on the North Caucasus of Central Asia
and the Caucasus Studies Center of the Oriental Studies Institute
of the RAS, stated that there will be sluggish negotiations between
Georgia and Abkhazia and South Ossetia and extension of humanitarian
cooperation. Changing of power in Tbilisi caused positive tendencies,
but they cannot be considered as promising. The new authorities
may try to count on Russia’s reconsideration of its attitude toward
Abkhazia and South Ossetia; and the USA pushes Georgia to turning
this process into a subject of a bargain with Moscow. According to
Skakov, in the situation Tbilisi’s policy toward its north neighbor
is being developed in Washington and Brussels. One of measures for
settlement of Abkhazia and South Ossetia issue can be restoration of
roads which are very important for the transport system of the region,
but today such projects have no adequate support for various reasons,
Skakov thinks. Skakov mentioned difficulties within Russia itself. He
says that there are “hawks” in Russian politics who think that Tbilisi
shouldn’t have any contacts with Abkhazia and South Ossetia before it
recognizes their independence or Georgia’s joining the CIS or even
the Eurasian Union. Skakov believes this approach is not effective
because leads to a dead-lock.
Alexander Iskandaryan, Director of the Caucasus Institute, political
scientist, noted that “the study of the Caucasus for Russia, I think,
is of importance, not only academic, but also practical. And, of
course, in the South Caucasus, the scientists themselves should
figure out what is happening here, in Russia, and try to somehow
share that information with the Russians, considerations that exist –
it is also important.”
Speaking about settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, Iskanderyan
said that the process of negotiations under the OSCE Minsk Group
is being criticized for no reason: “It has no aim to settle the
conflict. It is impossible and there is no field for talks. Its task
is simple – to make negotiations continue, while the process itself
should be international.”
Orkhan Sattarov, the head of the European bureau of Vestnik
Kavkaza, spoke about importance of Azerbaijan for Russia, considering
difficulties in the situation over Iran and the role which is played by
the country in the region. The most important problem for Azerbaijan,
according to the expert, is settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict.
Seymour Aliyev, the head of the Russian editorial of Trend, spoke
about successes achieved by Azerbaijan in improvement of living
conditions of Azerbaijani people. The expert noted that the GDP
tripled, and its growth would be impossible without diversification
of economy. Non-oil segment of economy takes a half of the GDP, and
last year it grew by 10%. This year Azerbaijan has launched its first
satellite in space. Wide-scaled projects will be implemented in the
nearest future in different spheres.
Experts agreed that it is necessary to build a clear policy in the
region by Moscow, because the Caucasus is full of conflicts and
demands close attention by Russian politicians.