RUSSIA NEEDS ALLIES, ARMENIAN EX-AMBASSADOR SAYS
09:25 ~U 15.10.13
In an interview with Tert.am, a former Armenian ambassador to Russia,
Suren Sahakyan, addressed the recent statements that Armenia is not a
welcome guest in the Customs Union, as well as the possible benefits
that the country would gain in case of acceding to the organization.
Mr Sahakyan, you are a proponent of Armenia’s accession to the
Customs Union. The Armenian society showed – to say the least –
varied responses to the Armenian and Russian presidents’ statement
on Armenia’s accession to the Customs Union.
I agree that the Armenian society did show varied responses to that
statement. But I would like to address the economic aspect of the
issue. In analyzing any matter we should consider the “pluses” and
“minuses.” Unfortunately, no one has made such an in-depth analysis in
Armenia. The so-called “gas arguments” are mostly being put forward
or moral values or corruption are being talked about, whereas the
Customs Union is, first of all, an economic phenomenon. It should
first of all be views from the following aspect: will Armenia benefit
from it and what benefits they may be.
The Polish ambassador to Armenia recently made a rather fiery speech,
stating that, if Armenia initialed an Association Agreement with
the European Union (EU), it would have an annual income of US $150
million in two or three years. I should note that after joining the
Customs Union US $150 million will flow into Armenia’s economy due
to the natural gas that will be supplied to Armenia at a fair price,
which is a “plus.” If we do not join the Customs Union, but move in
the European direction, which, I think, is quite vague, because the EU
has its owns problems, including those with Romania and Hungary. Given
the fact that we are purchasing the Russian gas at the same price as
Europe does, it is a “minus.”
I think we should also consider the Customs Union’s benefits in
the context of labor laws. It is common knowledge that thousands
of Armenian citizens are working in Russia. After Armenia joins
the Customs Union, they will enjoy all the rights citizens of
the other member-nations. And we have specific documents to this
effect. The same social guarantees are in question as well. For
example, jobseekers will not have to fill in immigration forms. The
current registration regime will be abolished. That is, we can make
the people’s life much easier. In any case, they are in Russia, and
if we do not accede to the Customs Union, we will create difficulties
for them. Also money transfers to our country, which are essentially
fueling Armenia’s economy. The Customs Union member-states are close
to Armenia in terms of culture, technologies, markets and standards. I
wish our economists or politicians, who are proponents or opponents
of Armenia’s accession to the Customs Union, cited concrete figures
for society to see the figures.
Regarding the ideological aspect, I do not think that the Customs
Union member-nations – Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan – do not seek
high standards of panhuman values, human rights and democracy. All
the nations are seeking. All the nations are seeking them. However,
if a country is not prospering, any panhuman or democratic values
are not worthy speaking of.
Don’t you rule out the possibility that nobody is waiting for us
in the Customs Union? Many analyst think [President] Serzh Sargsyan
wouldn’t have made the September 3 statement if not [the plan] for
initialing the Association Agreement in Vilnius.
As for the analysts, most of them – and that’s the practice around
the world – they receive commissions from specific centers. The
independent, unbiased analysts, so to say, are very few in number. So
given this struggle for dominance in the world and the cheap resources,
it is important to consider who that analyst is, and who preceded
him or her. And I think it is very natural for each of the sides to
use ideological, analytical and other fronts.
Now let us return to the statement that “they are not waiting for us”
in the Customs Union. Let us take Russia, the most powerful country
in the Customs Union, and its dynamics. [First President] Boris
Yeltsin handed over power with a state budget of 20 billion Roubles;
[his successor] Vladimir Putin increased that amount to 500 billion
Roubles in the course of ten years.
Russia needs allies; it is very difficult to get along in the world
without allies. Obviously, Armenia is not only an economic partner
but also a geopolitical ally for Russia. Armenia needs Russia to feel
more confident in the South Caucasus, and Russia has proven that this
region is of vital importance for it. Hence, Russia is interested to
have Armenia next to it as a partner. So why should Russia ban our
[entry] to the Customs Union? In terms of resources, Armenia is of no
interest to Russia because Russia itself is a challenging country for
the world due to its resources. All aspire to [gain access] to the
Russian natural resources, and they wish to acquire them at prices
as cheap as possible. So, I repeat again, what’s the point?
So you rule out the possibility that Armenia will not accede to the
Customs Union?
I rule out the possibility that if Armenia accedes to the Customs
Union, Russia will repel it. I think that’s a comfortable situation
in a sense that alliance can be concluded in normal conditions,
allowing for logical dividends.
And another question is, why should Europe need us? To the best of my
knowledge, we are not economically important for them either Europe
needs us to undermine Russia’s position if the South Caucasus. And
after Russia is pushed back from this region, we will be of no interest
to Europe.
Mr Sahakyan, Georgia is nonetheless heading towards Europe.
Georgia has obviously stood out with positive trends over the past
years, and the Georgian authorities manage to ensure a high salary for
employees of the government sector thanks to bonuses from abroad, and
they demand that they mutually have a normal attitude to the people.
But let’s have a look at the economy of Georgia. They have lost
their brand markets. And to bring each brand back to the market, huge
amounts of money are necessary. The Georgian [mineral water] Borzhomi,
bay leaf etc. no longer go to the Russian market in the volume they
might go. So what prevents Georgia from doing what it is doing now:
developing economically on the one hand and continuing the practice
with officials by giving them high salaries and making demands?
Demands for anti-corruption measures and a normal attitude to the
people? Was the internal mentality the hindrance …? They every year
get huge sums for the maintenance of the state machinery; what if
they come to a halt one day? What’s the structure of Georgia’s society?
They used to have an enterprise of chemical additives, and Greece had
an aluminum plant and other enterprises, but because the EU exercises
a strict control, the Greeks do not have an aluminum plant any more.
So all they are supposed to do is to produce tomatoes. This leads
to a change in the society’s social structure. This is, by the way,
an issue of key importance for the state. When Armenia is declared a
country delivering services, we’ll lose our scientific potential, our
engineering potential, and engage ourselves only in agriculture and
services such as mountain skiing, tourism and restaurants. But those
branches do not represent the powers of the country; the society’s
potential is determined first of all by the high-quality potentials
of the human resources doing scientific, medical and development work.
We got rid of the USSR, having an intellectually powerful and skilled
society, and we wasted that in the course of twenty years. Why?
Because people are not in demand today; they are unemployed.
And will they be in demand after the accession to the Customs Union?
And why not? I don’t even address the security issue [and don’t even
question] whether Europe guarantees our security; I take purely
an economic outlook, i.e. – whether Armenia is of any interest
to a foreign investor. Or is Ukraine more attractive in terms of
investments? [It has] after all a cheap labor force, very close
communication channels and huge markets. So where will the investor
go? But they won’t go even there. Let me note that investments have
been recently the basic trend in Russia and China. We, on the contrary,
are trying to detach ourselves from that. Will the European investors
come to Armenia to build plans or will a generation of engineers
or scientists emerge here? Did they go to Georgia? There too, hotel
businesses and services in the seaside regions basically appear to
be the sectors attracting investments; and the main investor is Turkey.
Let us bear in mind that in case of not joining the Customs Union,
we’ll see a drastic surge in the prices of energy carriers; any
investor will take this into account. If it is higher from the prime
cost of his own product, why should he come to us, to a country which
has communication problems and closed borders, and is in a risk zone
in terms of armed conflicts etc?
So we received a proposal Armenia couldn’t reject?
And what prevents us from rejection? If the problem about the rejection
is that you have to prove you are very proud and super-independent,
that’s not a sober approach. If you calculate your ‘pluses’ and
‘minuses’ and see the former are more, then I agree with the
structuring of the question that we received a proposal which was
very difficult to reject.
http://www.tert.am/en/news/2013/10/15/suren-sahakyan/