INDEPENDENCE OF AZERBAIJAN IS NOT LIKED BY THE US. WHY? BAKU IS DOOMED TO BE AN ALLY OF RUSSIA
WPS Agency, Russia
DEFENSE and SECURITY (Russia)
October 20, 2014 Monday
Last week, we saw active contacts of Russian Armed Forces with
Azerbaijan. On October 13, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu had an
official visit to Baku. An unofficial three-day visit of a group of
ships of the Caspian Flotilla to Azerbaijan was completed on October
19. Representatives of the Defense Ministry said that these were
preplanned events. Along with this, interestingly they coincided with
results of the recent summit of the Caspian states in Astrakhan at
which participants worked out measures for provision of collective
security in this region. Probably it was not incidental that when
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev met with Shoigu he said with
satisfaction that “Azerbaijan and Russia established working contacts
on all levels, in all areas of cooperation including the military
field we have good dynamic.”
In its official report the Defense Ministry said that “negotiation
took place in the situation of confidence and mutual understanding
and had constructive nature. Defense ministers of the two countries
discussed condition and ways of further development of military and
military technological cooperation, as well as some important issues
of provision of regional and international security and prospects of
strengthening of interaction in the Caspian region.”
Along with this, analyzing relations of Russia and Azerbaijan we
can hardly say that Baku moves in the wake of the foreign policy of
Moscow. Azerbaijan is a competitor of Russia in transportation of
energy resources to the international market. It defends its interests
in this area harshly without looking back at Russia or at other
countries including the US. Of course, Aliyev takes contacts of Moscow
and Yerevan in the military field without enthusiasm, as well as their
participation in the collective security system of the CSTO. However,
Azerbaijan is pursuing pragmatic military and military technological
policy in relations with us and stakes at rearming and development of
its army primarily according to the patterns of the Armed Forces of
Russia. Evidently it is not incidental that 57 Azerbaijani servicemen
are currently studying in educational institutions of the Defense
Ministry of Russia free of charge. In the course of the visit of
Shoigu to Azerbaijan the parties discussed the issues related to
broadening of cooperation in training of military personnel.
Along with this, it is also possible to say with assurance that
Azerbaijani leader Aliyev is a characteristic representative of
leaders of the authoritarian type and is not ready to follow in the
wake of someone. Reforming and rearming of the army, giving up of
signing of an agreement on association with the EU and building of
equal relations with NATO became distinctive traits of the Azerbaijani
foreign policy in the last few years.
Of course, someone does not like such actions. One of the active
attempts to destabilize the situation in Baku was taken after the
presidential elections in October of 2013. However, incomprehensible
attempt of weak and frankly unpopular opposition to organize a kind of
“color revolution” had no results. Inspirers of these events did not
take into account the national mentality of the local population,
as well as absolute support of the authorities on the part of the
law-enforcement agencies and the army.
This attempt did not escape attention of President Aliyev. He took
unpopular measures similar to what was done in Russia in many aspects.
Azerbaijan adopted a big package of amendments to some laws that
regulated activity of parties and nongovernmental organizations,
arrested or expelled from the country the most notorious opposition
leaders and established stringent control over work of mass media.
Result of such measures appeared immediately: the opposition was
disorganized, channels of financing of pro-Western parties and
nongovernmental organizations from abroad were disrupted and remaining
“epicenters of resistance” shifted to the Internet. Rare and not
numerous meetings with demands of Aliyev’s dismissal and organization
of “democratic” elections are aimed at reminding about existence of
the opposition rather than at achievement of real results.
In these conditions “maters of life” from Washington and Brussels
decided to show a place to Aliyev. It is difficult to characterize
the harsh statements of the West about breaches of human rights in
Azerbaijan published in September in an interval of a few days.
Whereas the address of Human Rights Watch to the Council of Europe
with a call to pressurize Azerbaijani authorities for the purpose of
liberation of pro-Western opposition leaders did not surprise anyone,
statement of US President Barack Obama who mentioned Azerbaijan among
the countries where the main rights and liberties were breached led
to certain thoughts. Moreover so that according to the American
leader only “the countries that respect human rights” may become
“the closest allies of the US” because “support of civil society by
America is a matter of national security.”
Aliyev actually received a “black mark” on the highest level. The
leader of Azerbaijan was put in front of a choice: to become a
“democratically elected president” like Saakashvili or “dictator”
like Bashar Assad.
We also should not forget about another powerful lever of influence
on the Azerbaijani leader in the form of Nagorno-Karabakh. The recent
aggravation of the conflict regulated exclusively due to personal
interference of Vladimir Putin demonstrated not only fragility of the
peace established there but also easiness with which it was possible
to unleash a new war there. And it is not understandable still who
has organized the provocations.
In any case, there are no equals for Washington in falsification of
facts and staging of impressive scenes intended for ordinary people.
Moreover so when the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh is already
overheated to the limit.
What for does America need Nagorno-Karabakh? The answer is simple. In
case of beginning of a new war for Nagorno-Karabakh Russia will not be
indifferent to the conflict. It is quite possible that guided by its
international obligations in the CSTO Russia will side with Armenia and
Baku will have to turn to Washington. And the aid will be provided,
naturally, on American terms. Negative geopolitical consequences of
such scenario for Russia deserve a separate article.
In these conditions it seems that the Azerbaijani leader has one way
out: pursuing of independent multi-vector foreign policy, strengthening
of the army and resistance to provocations. He can also increase
interaction with Russia and to try to play on various interests of the
US and EU in the region because these interests differ very much often.