Author: Antonian Lara

LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT TURKEY AND AZERBAIJAN AFTER ERDOGAN’S WASHINGTON VISIT
Vladimir Socor

The Jamestown Foundation
December 11, 2009

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s December 7-8 visit to
Washington (EDM, December 9) underscored the decline in Washington’s
ability to influence Turkish foreign policy decisions. It is within
this broader context, Erdogan and Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu
turned down Washington’s demands for Turkey to normalize relations
with Armenia swiftly and unconditionally. This would have broken the
linkage between the normalization of Turkish-Armenian relations and
withdrawal of Armenian troops from certain Azerbaijani districts,
as part of the Karabakh conflict resolution process.

That withdrawal and linkage are top national priorities for Azerbaijan
-a fact that the US administration apparently discounted, amid
pressures from Armenian advocacy groups and parts of Congress.

Breaking that linkage would have undermined Azerbaijan’s position
severely, with potentially lasting effects.

By asking Turkey to undercut Azerbaijan in that way, Washington
jeopardized its de facto strategic partnership with Baku and put
long-term US policy goals in the South Caucasus at risk. The Turkish
government’s disagreement with Washington on this issue, however,
has opened a fresh opportunity for the U.S.-Azerbaijan relationship
to continue on a lessons-learned basis and develop further.

This turn of events is not without irony, given that Ankara is
distancing itself strategically from Washington on a number of issues
that the United States regards as its top policy priorities. This
process gained added momentum in the run-up to Erdogan’s Washington
visit.

Thus, Ankara turned down US requests to increase the Turkish troop
presence in Afghanistan beyond the 1,600 currently deployed (a
strikingly low ratio for NATO’s second-largest army after that of
the United States). Ankara, moreover, reaffirmed its caveats against
military operations and combat missions, confining Turkish troops
instead to training and reconstruction projects, even as Washington
urged support for its military "surge" on December 1.

Demonstratively, Turkey abstained from the International Atomic Energy
Agency’s (IAEA) November 27 resolution censuring Iran (while Russia
and China voted in favor alongside the United States). Erdogan had
visited Tehran in October for the signing of economic agreements that
could boost bilateral trade from $11 billion to $30 billion annually
within this decade. The agreements of intent include exploration,
production, and transportation of Iranian natural gas, notwithstanding
U.S. sanctions in that sector. Ankara differs with Washington’s threat
assessment regarding the Iranian nuclear program and is reaching
out politically to Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (Hurriyet,
December 6; Zaman, December 6, 7).

Ankara is also distancing itself markedly from Israel, Washington’s
closest Middle Eastern ally. Following Erdogan’s war-crimes accusations
against Israeli President Shimon Peres at the World Economic Forum
in Davos, Turkish public television produced an inflammatory serial
in which performers impersonating Israeli soldiers enacted killings
of Arab children. In October, Turkey revoked its invitation to Israel
in the Anatolia Eagle air force exercise, prompting the United States
to cancel its participation, and thus the event as such. Meanwhile,
Ankara conducts a rapprochement with Hamas and other politically
defined Muslim anti-Western forces (Jerusalem Post, December 7).

The Turkish government relies heavily on Russia to turn Turkey into an
"energy hub" -an ambition that tends to work against Western energy
security interests and US-backed projects. In the Black Sea, Turkey
pursues a de facto condominium with Russia, sidelining NATO allies
and partners and frustrating the United States in the process.

Without and beyond any value judgments, however, these trends
demonstrate Turkey’s capacity to pursue policies contradicting those
of Washington, when Ankara’s views and perceived interests so dictate.

Common US-Turkish interests -most saliently on Iraq and the Kurdish
problem- persist despite the multiple disagreements elsewhere. In
the South Caucasus, meanwhile, Washington and Ankara both lost their
former strategic focus and clear definition of common interests.

Course corrections are possible, however.

Ankara’s decision to rally to Azerbaijan’s support in the negotiating
process, despite US calls for a premature agreement with Armenia,
is a case in point. On the eve of the Erdogan-Davutoglu visit to
Washington, Davutoglu summed up bilateral relations as: "The United
States always wants something from us" (Zaman, December 6). Such a
situation inherently provides Turkey with ample bargaining power and
even counter-leverage, which it has employed in this case with regard
to Azerbaijan.

At least for now, Ankara’s move has prevented Azerbaijan’s isolation in
the Karabakh conflict-resolution process. Isolation could have forced
Baku to turn toward Moscow as arbiter of last resort in the Karabakh
conflict, which ranks as Azerbaijan’s uppermost national priority. And
such an about-turn could have compromised the energy security and
regional security agendas for Europe and the South Caucasus-Caspian
region. Washington and Brussels discounted the danger signals from
Baku and underestimated the mounting sentiment of alienation there.

The problem can soon return, if Washington and Brussels renew
pressure on Turkey to open the border with Armenia unconditionally,
at Azerbaijan’s expense, before next April’s climactic debate on an
Armenian genocide resolution in the US Congress.

RA PRIME MINISTER AND LATVIAN PRESIDENT DISCUSS ISSUES RELATED TO DEVELOPMENT OF ARMENIAN-LATVIAN RELATIONS

Noyan Tapan
Dec 11, 2009

YEREVAN, DECEMBER 11, NOYAN TAPAN. RA Prime Minister Tigran Sargsian
and Latvian President Valdis Zatlers, on December 10, discussed issues
related to development of Armenian-Latvian relations, passage from
political dialogue to active economic cooperation and possible ways
of cooperation in various spheres. According to the RA government
Information and Public Relations Department, the interlocutors attached
importance to establishment of mutual contacts and business ties,
activization of steps aimed at conducting encouraging policy for
the two countries’ business circles, expressed the hope that the
Armenian-Latvian business forum being held in Yerevan will create
good preconditions for development of trade and economic relations.

For the start of bilateral economic relations T. Sargsian considered
that cooperation in the spheres of commerce, tourism, environmental
protection, information technologies, pharmacy are those having
prospects. The sides also attached importance to activization
of cultural contacts which will be a good basis for giving a new
quality to warm relations formed between the two peoples, as well
as to establishment of scientific-educational contacts, contacts
between universities and exchange of experience in other spheres of
mutual interest.

HOUSE-SENATE CONFEREES APPROVE AID LEVELS $41 MILLION FOR ARMENIA AND $8 MILLION FOR KARABAKH

ArmInfo
2009-12-11 12:29:00

ArmInfo. Finalizing its work on six different appropriations measures,
the Conferees in the House and Senate approved a Consolidated
Appropriations Bill for 2010, which provides $41 million for Armenia
and $8 million for Nagorno Karabakh, reported the Armenian Assembly
of America (Assembly).

The bill also maintained parity with respect to Foreign Military
Financing (FMF) to Armenia and Azerbaijan at $3 million each. The
Conferees did not delineate funding to either country regarding
International Military Education Training (IMET). "The Assembly
appreciates the continued support of its friends in the House and
Senate in helping secure a positive outcome," said Assembly Executive
Director Bryan Ardouny. "Given Turkey’s ongoing blockade of Armenia,
which is reinforced by Azerbaijan, U.S. assistance remains critically
important," added Ardouny. The Conferees stated that they "expect
the Department of State to continue to emphasize the use of civil
society in implementing programs and activities in Armenia." The $41
million approved reflects a $7 million drop from the Fiscal Year (FY)
2009 level, but is $11 million over the Administration’s request. On
assistance to Artsakh, the "conferees direct[ed] that up to $8,000,000
be made available for programs and activities in Nagorno-Karabakh."

This matches the level of funding allocated by Congress in FY 2009.

Earlier this year, in support of robust assistance to Armenia and
Nagorno Karabakh, Board of Trustees Member Van Krikorian testified
before the House Appropriations Subcommittee on State, Foreign
Operations, and Related Programs, outlining the Assembly’s priorities
with respect to funding and U.S. policy in the South Caucasus region.

With the work of the Conferees completed, the full House is expected to
vote on the Consolidated Bill as early as this friday. Once voted on by
the House and Senate, the Bill will be sent to President Barack Obama
for his signature into law. Established in 1972, the Armenian Assembly
of America is the largest Washington- based nationwide organization
promoting public understanding and awareness of Armenian issues. The
Assembly is a 501(c)(3) tax-exempt membership organization.

PEOPLE SCARED OF ‘SWINE FLU’ VISIT POLYCLINICS

ArmInfo
2009-12-10 16:13:00

ArmInfo. Since H1N1 flu appearance in the country citizens have started
visiting polyclinics 3-4 times often than earlier, representative of
Armenian Health Ministry, Vahan Petrosyan, told journalists today.

He also added that the number of calling a doctor has also risen over
the last period of time. Moreover, doctors of polyclinics are on duty
on Saturdays and Sundays because spreading of respiratory infection.

‘All the polyclinics are provided with the necessary medicine including
Tamiflu, which is given to such people free’, – he said and recalled
that an Operative Headquarters was set up under Health Ministry,
which twice per day receives information about the flu situation in
the country. Here are the telephone numbers of the hot line in Health
Ministry : 52-88-72 and 56-53-23.

For his part, the head of the State Sanitary Inspection under Health
Ministry, Artavazd Vanyan, said taking into consideration the flu
situation in the country, additional preventive measures have been
taken, in particular, visits to patients at hospitals have been
limited, special rooms for the people such of flu have been set up
in polyclinics.

To note, 54 cases of H1N1 flu have been registered in Armenia.

GEORGIA TO WITHDRAW CIS INTERPALIAMENTARY ASSEMBLY ON JANUARY 22

PanARMENIAN.Net
07.12.2009 20:32 GMT+04:00

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ Chairman of CIS Inter-Parliamentary Assembly Sergei
Mironov said Georgia would cease to be a member of this organization
from January 2010. "Under Assembly’s mechanisms, Georgia’s notification
on withdrawing membership will enter into force six month after
joining the organization," he said.

CIS Secretary Sergey Lebedev announced earlier that such step would
be the detriment of Georgia rather than the Assembly.

According organization’s Secretary General Mikhail Krotov, the country
intends to continue participation 75 treaties and agreements, including
the one concerning free trade, Georgiatimes.info reports.

TRIBUTE TO EARTHQUAKE VICTIMS’ MEMORY WAS PAID

NKR Government Information and
Public Relations Department
December 07, 2009

Today, in Stepanakert, a tribute was paid to the memory of victims of
great Earthquake in Spitak. Thousands of representatives of public,
as well as the NKR state and political higher authority have visited
the memorial complex of the capital, laid wreaths to the monument of
the disaster victims. Requiem mass was performed. The NKR NA Chairman
A.Ghoulyan, the Prime Minister A.Haroutyunyan, officials of higher
legislative, executive and judicial authorities were present at
the ceremony.

EDWARD NALBANDIAN: ARMENIA ATTACHES GREAT IMPORTANCE TO COOPERATION WITH THE EUROPEAN UNION

armradio.am
08.12.2009 15:38

Today the foreign ministers from the EU and the six countries
involved in the Eastern Partnership are meeting in Brussels. This
is the first meeting of foreign ministers since the partnership
was launched in May. Ahead of today’s meeting, se2009.eu put three
questions to Armenia’s Foreign Minister Edward Nalbandian.

– What are your expectations of the meeting? What are the most
important issues for Armenia?

– Armenia attaches great importance to cooperation with the European
Union and its Member States. The Eastern Partnership initiative
provides a new framework for this relationship through enhanced
political dialogue, increased trade opportunities and people-to-people
contacts. Another added value of the Eastern Partnership is that
it supports cooperation among the partner states, which is can be
critical to the overall success of the initiative. At this first
ministerial meeting we will take stock of the progress achieved and
I look forward to productive discussions with my colleagues on the
perspectives of our future cooperation.

Armenia’s relations with the European Union are regulated by the
Partnership and Cooperation Agreement. The latter was signed in 1996
and entered into force in 1999. Since then the political landscape of
Europe has changed significantly, new challenges and opportunities
have come into being. The Eastern Partnership not only reflects the
progress achieved in relations between Armenia and the EU in the last
decade, but also offers the perspective of an Association Agreement,
which will adapt our cooperation to the new realities and will take
into consideration the aspirations of each partner state and the
European Union.

– What are your hopes for the Eastern Partnership in the short run
and the long run?

– I think in the short term the Eastern Partnership should develop
appropriate mechanisms of cooperation and establish the atmosphere
of mutual understanding that will be conducive to accomplishing
the goals of the initiatives. The thematic platforms, have made a
certain progress this year, and I hope that their working plans
will be successfully implemented. It is also important that the
partner countries build their capacities so that they can absorb
the implications that derive from the intensive contacts within the
Eastern Partnership and can serve the goals of cooperation such as
an Association Agreement and a deep and comprehensive Free Trade
Agreement.

– How do you think the EU can benefit from the partnership? How can
Armenia benefit?

– Partnership means a common set of values, interests, trade and
human contacts. The ultimate beneficiaries of this process will be
the peoples of Armenia and the European Union, who are united in
their diversity, as each of them has different traditions, history
and language, but they share the same vision of a Europe based on
cooperation, peace and prosperity. They want to trade with each other
and enrich knowledge of each other’s culture. To this end, one of
our common priorities is facilitating visa arrangements in order
to gradually remove obstacles to people-to-people contact between
our societies.

AMERIABANK LAUNCHES LARGE-SCALE BUSINESS FINANCING PROJECT

ArmInfo
2009-12-08 13:12:00

ArmInfo. Ameriabank launches a new large-scale business financing
project. As Ameriabank’s press-service told ArmInfo, the project
will assure the terms of crediting, having no analogues, for all
the businessmen with annual turnover of 5 mln to 5 bln drams and the
number of employees not exceeding 250 people.

Credits are provided to the sum of up to $1.5 mln and are available
for both legal persons and individual entrepreneurs. The policy,
laid in the bank’s strategy, supposes an individual approach to each
client with account of the client’s business specifics. The new project
also envisages a similar approach to each borrower. The credits are
provided at 12% annual interest rate with 7-year repayment period,
including a 2-year period of grace, during which only the interest
on credit is repaid. Ameriabank offers an opportunity of crediting
on preferential terms to the borrowers who properly fulfill their
obligations: the interest rate on credit will reduce every six
months during the first three years of the credit, irrespective of
the financial market state. The new business financing project aims
at assistance in promotion of the business-activity and development
of different sectors of Armenia’s economy.

Ameriabank CJSC is an investment bank which offers corporate,
investment and limited retail services in form of a complex package.

Troika Dialogue Group of companies, being one of the biggest
investment-banking companies of Russia, is Ameriabank’s strategic
partner.

The Economist

December 5, 2009
U.S. Edition

Testy Erdogan; Turkey and the West

Claims that Turkey is drifting away from the West seem exaggerated

WHEN Turkey’s prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, meets Barack Obama
in the White House next week, he will insist on his country’s Western
credentials. He will be greeted with a request for more troops to back
the American surge in Afghanistan. Turkey, which has NATO’s
second-biggest army, has 1,700 soldiers on Afghan soil and Turkish
generals have led allied forces there. Yet Mr Erdogan’s mildly
Islamist Justice and Development (AK) Party dislikes American calls to
fight fellow Muslims in Afghanistan. Turkey has opted to train Afghan
security forces and build roads and schools instead. Mr Erdogan will
spurn demands for combat troops.

His Western critics may seize on this as confirmation of Turkey’s
supposed drift away from the West under seven years of AK rule. Mr
Erdogan’s cosiness with Iran and Sudan, plus his salvoes against
Israel, feed claims that he is an Islamist firebrand at heart. His
behaviour has spawned a flurry of hand-wringing in the West.

Yet to Turkish jihadists, who are surfacing in Afghanistan and
Chechnya, Mr Erdogan is an American poodle. It was these home-grown
militants, with links to al-Qaeda, who in November 2003 killed over 60
people in suicide bombings against British and Jewish targets in
Istanbul. If Turkish troops started shooting at fellow Muslims, that
would swell the ranks of Islamist radicals in Turkey. "This is what
America and the West needs to understand," complains an AK official.
America also relies heavily on Turkey for its operations in Iraq. The
Incirlik airbase in southern Turkey is a supply hub for American
troops in Iraq and Afghanistan. As it begins to withdraw from Iraq,
America is turning to Turkey to help Iraqis rebuild.

Indeed, Mr Erdogan may have a harder task explaining to Mr Obama his
reluctance to back new sanctions against Iran. Turkey holds a rotating
seat on the UN Security Council. "Should sanctions come to a vote,
that is when we will know whose side Turkey is on: ours or the other,"
comments a Western diplomat. Iran will be critical for future
relations with America.

Mr Erdogan’s enemies claim that AK’s moves to trim the army’s powers
are not to do with its European Union aspirations but with a desire to
cement religious rule. The Ergenekon case against alleged
coup-plotters was, they argue, cooked up as part of this plan. Their
views have been echoed in some Western newspapers, which have also
condemned a crushing tax slapped on Turkey’s largest media
conglomerate, Dogan. Many note that the fine came only after some
Dogan titles began exposing corruption implicating AK party officials.
The argument is that Mr Erdogan wants to silence a free press to help
Turkey’s move towards Islamic dictatorship.

Mr Erdogan undoubtedly has autocratic instincts. He has taken
journalists and even cartoonists to court. His embrace of Sudan’s
president Omar al-Bashir, charged with war crimes against his own
people, was a disgrace. And he favours a somewhat greater role for
Islam in public life. But he seems committed to Turkey’s EU accession
process, even to pursuing liberalising reforms in Turkey if its EU
hopes are dashed. He wants to resolve Turkey’s problems with its
Kurds. And he is pursuing reconciliation with Armenia. These are
hardly signs of a shift from the West.

And what of his opponents? Deniz Baykal, the leader of the Republican
People’s Party, spends most of his time attacking laws that could help
Turkey’s bid for EU membership. Devlet Bahceli, the leader of the main
nationalist party, said that "swine flu doesn’t exist", though it has
killed almost 200 Turks. As for the army, incriminating documents that
were seized during an investigation show that a group was indeed
hoping to topple Mr Erdogan by, among other things, assassinating
Christians and placing the blame on AK. Why not send them to
Afghanistan?

Armenia and UAE share similar positions on many issues
05.12.2009 17:21 GMT+04:00

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ United Arab Emirates (UAE) supports Armenian-Turkish
rapprochement, according to UAE Minister of State for Foreign Affairs
Mohammed Anwar Gargash.

`We know this is a rather complicated process having a historical
background, but we wish good luck to your efforts,’ he told today a
news conference organized jointly with Armenian FM Edward Nalbandyan.

With regard to Karabakh conflict settlement, Mr. Gargash reiterated
his country’s efforts towards assisting in the process in accordance
with the norms of international law.