Author: Ani Tigranian

On the morning of February 13, four Armenian soldiers were killed and one was wounded by Azerbaijani gunfire in the southern Syunik Province, Armenia's defense ministry reported. 

The news came a day after Azerbaijan claimed one of its soldiers was wounded by Armenian fire. 

On February 12, the Azerbaijani foreign ministry released a statement saying that a serviceman of the country's State Border Service was wounded "as a result of another military provocation" by Armenia. 

"This provocation of Armenia is a serious blow to the peace process between Azerbaijan and Armenia," the English version of the statement read. "In light of the stable situation of the last 4-5 months, such belligerent acts blatantly contradict with peace messages by Armenia. Moreover, such a provocation that was undertaken exactly in the territories observed by the European Union Mission in Armenia raises serious concerns about the aims and purposes of this Mission."

Government-linked news agency Caliber.az released what it called footage of the attack. 

In response, the Armenian defense ministry stated that the matter was "under investigation." "Preliminary findings indicate that no such situation occurred in this area on February 12," it said. "If this is confirmed, those responsible for violating the orders will be held accountable."

The next day Azerbaijani forces fired on the Armenian army post, near the border village of Nerkin Hand in Syunik Province. Four Armenian servicemen were killed, and one was wounded. He is reported to be in stable condition.  

Armenia's foreign ministry said that these "aggressive actions … indicate that Azerbaijan is looking for pretexts for escalation on the border." 

"These actions of use of force were preceded by bellicose statements by the military and political leadership of Azerbaijan, as well as information and propaganda preparatory activities in recent days," the statement read. "The leadership of Azerbaijan is constantly trying to disrupt the efforts of actors interested in stability and security in the South Caucasus to resume negotiations aimed at the normalization of Armenia-Azerbaijan relations."

The Azerbaijani side denied the accusation, instead saying it "has eliminated the threat emanating from the Armenian military outpost following the military provocation that injured an Azerbaijani serviceman," adding that "this measure was purely a retaliatory one."

Azerbaijan's State Border Service named the attack "Operation Revenge," a moniker it has used for several past operations as well. 

Since Azerbaijan seized the whole of the formerly Armenian-populated Nagorno-Karabakh region in September, there have been fears in Armenia of an Azerbaijani invasion. Last month Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev revived his demand for an extraterritorial corridor through Armenian territory connecting mainland Azerbaijan with the Nakhchivan exclave. Just recently Baku seemed to have backed away from this demand, as an alternative route exists through Iran. 

The U.S. embassy in Yerevan prohibited its employees and their families from "non-essential travels" to certain parts of the border, including Syunik, on February 2. 

On February 12, before the attack on the Armenian post, Ambassador Peter Michalko of the European Union to Azerbaijan was summoned to the foreign ministry. The latter expressed its concern "with regard to the activities of the EU Monitoring Mission in Armenia (EUMA) that contradict initial agreements with respect to this mission and activities."

"It was noted that contrary to its declared purposes of contributing to stability in the region and confidence between Azerbaijan and Armenia, the mission is being widely exploited as an anti-Azerbaijani propaganda tool," the ministry's readout of the meeting said. "It was brought to the attention of the EU side that the Mission has essentially become an agent of 'binoculars diplomacy' facilitating the visits of different European officials and unofficial delegations to the border areas. All such visits, without exception, are used for disseminating anti-Azerbaijani hate and replicating unfounded Azerbaijan-phobia."

The Council of Europe is "concerned about reports of exchange of fire along the Armenia-Azerbaijan border"and "calls on both sides to abstain from the use of force," Secretary General Maria Pejcinovic Buric wrote on X. 

TEHRAN- The 18th meeting of Iran-Armenia Joint Economic Committee began in Tehran on Wednesday.

Addressing the opening ceremony of the mentioned meeting, Masoud Mirzaei, the representative of the Islamic Republic of Iran, while welcoming the Armenian delegation, described the political relations between Tehran and Yerevan as good and added: “We believe that the level of economic relations between the two countries should be improved commensurate with the political relations.”

He said the Islamic Republic of Iran is looking for an operational roadmap to expand economic relations in all areas with the Republic of Armenia, and all capacities will be used to expand these relations.

In late October, 2023, Iranian Transport and Urban Development Minister Mehrdad Bazrpash traveled to Armenia to meet the country’s senior officials and discuss ways of expanding trade and transit ties between the two countries.

Speaking to the press prior to the visit, Bazrpash emphasized Iran's readiness to export technical-engineering services to Armenia, announcing the plan of the two countries to strengthen the level of trade and transit, and remove cumbersome regulations in the way of trade development.

Iran and Armenia have signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) to cooperate in the fields of labor exchange, technical and professional training, as well as, welfare and empowerment of the disabled.

The MOU, signed by Iranian Labor and Social Welfare Minister Solat Mortazavi and his Armenian counterpart Narek Mkrtchyan in Tehran in late October 2023, also covers economic cooperation between the two countries in the fields of petrochemicals, road and construction materials, and medicine.

MA

Music collective Uru and Boston-based composer Aneesh Kashalikar unite to revitalise yazh and duduk, breathing new life into ancient melodies.

The song, titled Agandai Tegam, is a fusion piece that embodies the theme of love prevailing over ego. Aneesh, the composer and duduk player, explains, “We drew inspiration from Sangam literature.”

Residing in Boston, Aneesh transitioned from a career in computational neuroscience to pursuing music full-time. With training in Hindustani classical music and saxophone, he ventured into mastering new instruments a few years ago.

This analysis by Igor Mirosavljević was originally published by the International and Security Affairs Centre (ISAC), part of the regional initiative Western Balkans Anti-Disinformation Hub. An edited version is republished by Global Voices as part of a partnership agreement.

The re-escalation of the conflict in the Nagorno-Karabakh region in September 2023, which ended with the surrender of Nagorno-Karabakh forces and the establishment of total control over the territory by Azerbaijan, focused increased public attention on the geopolitical dynamics in the South Caucasus region in the media in the Serbian language. Serbian pro-government tabloids pushed the narrative that the sole responsibility for Armenia losing control over the region and the subsequent mass exodus of ethnic Armenians living in Karabakh was the doing of the Armenian pro-Western authorities, their rhetoric and foreign policy moves.

Despite being dubbed as one of the most famous examples of frozen conflict, the dispute over Nagorno-Karabakh has been one of the longest-lasting conflicts in the entire post-Soviet space. Throughout this period, Russia maintained its dominant presence in the region, and played the mediator role in the negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan regarding Nagorno-Karabakh. In addition, Armenia was the only post-Soviet state in which Russian influence was persistent and whose security architecture was directly, almost entirely, tied to Russia.

Nevertheless, during the recent tragic events, the Armenian authorities, led by Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, and a large part of public opinion strongly condemned Russia, with undisguised dissatisfaction and disappointment with the inaction of Russian peacekeeping troops — the contingent on the ground. However, the pro-government and pro-Russian media in Serbia systematically promoted a different narrative.

The most influential Serbian pro-government tabloid, Informer, carried a series of news headlines such as “Drama in Russia! Armenia is preparing a terrible attack on Moscow?! Pashinyan can cause a total disaster with one decision” and “Where was Pashinyan’s army?! He trains with the Americans!” focusing, in particular, on the alleged turn in Armenia’s foreign policy towards the West and the rapprochement with the USA, which also influenced Russia’s different, “reciprocal” approach in the context of the conflict in Karabakh. The tabloid quoted the former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev and one of the Kremlin’s leading propagandists, Vladimir Solovyov, who pointed out that the Armenian authorities turned to the West, which did not provide aid to Armenia or Nagorno-Karabakh, and are now subsequently trying to blame Russia for their defeat.

Screenshots of Serbian language articles ‘Getting closer to the West didn't pay off: Can Azerbaijan and Armenia avoid a new war?’ (RT), ‘Unprecedented betrayal! Big drama in Armenia, merciless showdown with Russia has begun,’ and ‘Why Putin abandoned Armenia?’ ‘Where was Pashinyan’s army?! He trains with the Americans!‘ (Informer). Fair use.

Other media, such as the Republika portal, the online edition of the daily Srpski Telegraf, also focused their “attention” in their reporting on the “betrayal” of Russia by the pro-Western Armenian authorities, accentuating that since Armenia’s moves have angered Moscow, it has no reason to react militarily in the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh. They noted that “the American army is conducting exercises in Armenia; Armenia’s leadership betrayed Russia a long time ago, and Armenia’s main friends are now Russia’s enemies, France, the EU and the USA (…) the third Karabakh war will not last long.”

Russian media based in Serbia also continued to interpret the events in Nagorno-Karabakh, as well as the subsequent anti-government and anti-Russian protests that rocked Armenia, in a similar manner. The Balkan portal of the Russian state media Russia Today pointed out that “the attempt to get closer to the West did not pay off in the end” and that “the situation does not look good either for Armenians or for their Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan.” RT repeated that the authorities of Armenia were “making their country hostages of the geopolitical games of the West (…) the alleged mistakes of the Russian Federation and the CSTO unconvincingly justify their steps.” They concluded that “due to the inconsistent attitude of the Armenian leadership, which runs after the West and turns its back on trilateral agreements with Russia and Azerbaijan, precious time has been lost during which progress could be made in the peace negotiations.”

The pro-Russian portals Webtribune and Srbin.info have also frequently “promoted” this narrative. In the text entitled “Armenia’s attack on Russia: Expert revealed the main reason for the betrayal” on Webtribune, it is pointed out that “Pashinyan will say and do whatever he wants at the behest of the West (…) the main thing is to solve the problem of pushing Russia out of the South Caucasus.” Srbin.info published the statement of Russian MFA spokesperson Maria Zakharova, in which she stated that it was not Russia that betrayed Armenia but Brussels, which “neither intended to contribute to the ceasefire nor the provision of humanitarian aid.”

Another of the related narratives present in this period was that Russia, although for a long time the guarantor of security, was not able to intervene more actively when Armenia itself changed the reality on the ground and recognized Azerbaijan’s sovereignty over Karabakh. The Serbian edition of Russian Sputnik emphasized that Pashinyan and the official Yerevan government themselves recognized that Nagorno-Karabakh belongs to Azerbaijan in May 2023, expressing their readiness to recognize the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan [under certain conditions], adding that the latest criticism of the Armenian authorities is in the shadow of that event.

Portal Alo quoted Russian President Vladimir Putin as saying that “it was only a matter of time when and how Baku would establish constitutional order in Karabakh after Yerevan recognized Baku’s sovereignty.” The text adds that it was not the decision of Russia but exclusively of the Armenian authorities. RT published a statement from the Kremlin reminding that Russia was under no obligation to protect Nagorno-Karabakh and that such claims are baseless, given the changed status of this area. Portal Informer quoted the editor-in-chief of the Serbian edition of RT, who claimed that the Armenian government refused Russia’s help, “recognized the disputed part of Nagorno-Karabakh, and now complains about it.”

The portal Novi Standard, in a suggestively titled article “Armenian lesson for the Serbs,” emphasized that “Pashinyan and his closest allies accuse Russia of their treachery and incompetence.” The claim that “in a word, when solving the Nagorno-Karabakh issue, Russia had no reason to confront Azerbaijan after Pashinyan’s complete turn to the collective West,” illustratively summarizes the key narratives spread in the Serbian media.

In reality, Russia’s influence as the most important geopolitical actor in the South Caucasus area is weakened, and this potentially opens up space for other major and regional powers, primarily the USA and Turkey, as well as the  EU, which is involved in nearby countries like Georgia and had attempted to negotiate a peace deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Even though it's the only foreign power with military forces on the ground, Moscow failed to effectively control the situation in the region, nor to resolve the conflict and stop hostilities. As the Center for Strategic and International Studies writes, Russia’s limited ability to mediate between Armenia and Azerbaijan and prevent the escalation of the conflict in Karabakh is conditioned by Moscow’s complete focus on its war in Ukraine. 

Carnegie Endowment for International Peace noted that since the fall of 2022, Russia's unwillingness to intervene or materialize military aid to Yerevan resulted in a decision by Pashinyan to diversify security partnerships. Only then did Armenia begin changing its security policy with cautious attempts to approach Western countries. This analysis indicated that Moscow’s justifications in the context of its own inertness and political mistakes, including its inability to prevent a humanitarian disaster in Karabakh at the end of September 2023, are unconvincing. The outcome of the conflict was also bad for Russia. “The failure of Russia’s peacekeeping efforts has jeopardized its long-term presence in the South Caucasus,” noted the article.

https://globalvoices.org/2024/01/30/serbian-media-blame-armenian-betrayal-of-russia-for-the-fall-of-nagorno-karabakh/

Pro-Armenian activists plan to protest in urban centers in 15 European countries Jan. 27-28. The purpose of the demonstrations is to denounce Azerbaijan's control of Nagorno-Karabakh and demand sanctions against the government in Baku. Organizers are planning gatherings in over 50 cities, including Berlin, London, Madrid, and Vienna. A list of cities is here, although further impromptu events are likely. The largest events are likely to be in Paris and Berlin, as France and Germany have the largest Armenian diaspora in Europe.

As of Jan. 26, locations and start times have only been announced for events in France, including:

• Marseille: Simultaneous gatherings at Beaumont Armenian Apostolic Church of Marseille on Impasse des Monts and Prado church on Avenue du Prado starting at 12:00 Jan. 28

• Nice: Courthouse (Palais de Justice) in the Vieille Ville from 11:30 Jan. 27.

• Paris: Place du Canada from 13:00 Jan. 28

• Strasbourg: Allee des Droits de l'Homme opposite the European Court of Human Rights from 13:00 Jan. 27

Heightened security and localized transport disruptions are likely near all demonstration sites. Low-level confrontations between demonstrators and law enforcement officers or counterprotesters cannot be ruled out.

https://crisis24.garda.com/alerts/2024/01/europe-pro-armenia-activists-to-demonstrate-in-major-cities-in-multiple-countries-jan-27-28-update-1