‘Azerbaijan And Armenia Do Not Need Mediators To Settle Karabakh Conflict’
Wednesday, 04 July 2012 13:51
Interview with Gerard Libaridian, Professor of University of Michigan,
the main adviser of the president of Armenia (1994-1997).
Q: What is the cause for conflicts in the South Caucasus?
A: The Caucasus region has an ancient history. As a rule, problems
emerged in some parts of the region subsequently cover it completely.
The cause for these conflicts is that the people of Azerbaijan,
Georgia and Armenia do not consider their region as a whole. That is,
the populations of these countries do not view the Caucasus as a
single region.
These countries are still searching for an outside force to solve
their internal problems. If in the Soviet period, the Caucasian
republics looked to Moscow as a force capable of solving their
problems, now they look also to Washington and Brussels. The Caucasian
countries still link their future, the future of their ties and
relations to countries outside the region.
One of the major problems of the Caucasus in early years of
acquisition of the countries’ national independence was the lack of
complete clarity in matters relating to their administrative
boundaries. Naturally, this situation led to conflicts. Thus, the
“Cold War” carried out by the Great Powers was replace with local wars
for countries of the Caucasus.
We can definitely say that countries in the region since the early
days of their independence, intentionally or due to ignorance, made
a very big mistake when they refused to support each other and began
to look for allies outside the region. This was also due to the fact
that the countries of the South Caucasus after the collapse of the
Soviet Union entered the transitional stage of development. In other
words, countries went through a transition from one party to a
multiparty political system.
Q: Is there a way out of this situation?
A: The South Caucasus region needs a concept of development. This
concept should include a suspension of all existing conflicts in the
region, in particular, the Karabakh conflict. This, in turn, leads to
the Russian intervention in the affairs of the region, which is not a
positive fact.
I think that the Karabakh problem is not just a conflict between
Azerbaijan and Armenia. It involves another 2-3 states. Each party of
the conflict only uses the facts of its historical past, which
correspond to their interests. Armenia is a very weak country,
compared to Georgia and Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan’s development will be
ongoing. Georgia, in turn, will also develop even in the absence of
Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
During the presidency of Levon Ter-Petrosyan, the periods were
reviewed in which Armenia could develop and become a normal country.
However, obstacle to this was the presence of conflict with Azerbaijan
and Turkey. The reality is that development can only be achieved in
the presence of good relations with neighboring states. In this
regard, the conclusion of peace is of great importance for Armenia.
However, some forces in Armenia forced Levon Ter-Petrosyan to resign
in 1997.
Q: How do you see ways to resolve the Karabakh conflict?
A: The parties of Karabakh conflict should be aware that they have
limited time to resolve the problem. But, anyway, today time works for
Azerbaijan. However, another argument might be that time also works
for Armenia. Calculations are not always accurate. The Azerbaijani
side can say we have oil, a strong army, etc. However, Azerbaijan is
not sure how processes will go further, how a new war can turn.
Experts conducting calculations give the advantage to Azerbaijan. But
a new generation of Armenians are forming up in Karabakh. In Karabakh
people who are 30 do not remember themselves in the part of
Azerbaijan.
Azerbaijan and Armenia should develop a formula that would ensure the
development of the region. Indeed, the presence of conflict reduces
the level of democracy, which impedes development. These countries
should find a formula for peace. The condition for such peace is that
each party agreed to a compromise. After all, the ceasefire between
Azerbaijan and Armenia is temporary. I don’t trust the mediators, I
prefer direct negotiations.
News.Az
From: A. Papazian