FAILED RESET?: UNITED STATES DECRIES “SOVIETIZATION” OF FORMER USSR STATES
Photo: State Department photo by Maxwell’s
By Naira Hayrumyan
ArmeniaNow correspondent
The statement by U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton that
Washington will openly oppose Russia’s attempts to re-integrate the
post-Soviet countries into a new USSR-type union has caused a stir in
the expert world.
Clinton made the statement about this attempt to “re-sovietize” the
former USSR space last week at a meeting of the OSCE Ministerial
Council in Dublin, Ireland.
“It’s not going to be called that [USSR]. It’s going to be called
customs union, it will be called Eurasian Union and all of that,” she
said, referring to Russian-led efforts for greater regional
integration. “But let’s make no mistake about it. We know what the
goal is and we are trying to figure out effective ways to slow down or
prevent it.”
Armenia, as one of the allies of Russia that also has made noticeable
progress it its relations with the European Union and the West in
general, recently, is likely to adjust its foreign policy to this new
reality as well.
Following Clinton’s statement, experts began to speak more definitely
about the U.S. now reconsidering its 2009 “reset” policy in relations
with Russia. The so-called Magnitsky list adopted in Washington also
evidences increased U.S. pressure on Russia. According to this
legislative act, the United States bans entry to the country to
Russian officials who violate human rights.
Russia, meanwhile, retaliated by passing a similar ban, and for
greater assurance also introduced a ban on imports of meat from the
United States. Washington is now likely to sue Russia at an
international court for breaking the rules of the World Trade
Organization that Moscow acceded to only this year.
Apparently, the fight for the post-Soviet space between the West and
Russia has entered its decisive phase. Everything will depend on 2013,
when several former Soviet republics, including Armenia, are expected
to sign association agreements and agreements on the establishment of
free trade zones with the European Union.
Moscow is trying to entice these republics to the Customs Union
(currently comprised of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan) before such
documents are signed. Apparently, this was the main issue raised
during the Commonwealth of Independent States summit in Ashgabat,
Turkmenistan, last week, which was followed by the top U.S. diplomat’s
statement. Officially, no statements were made after the summit, but
Russian President Vladimir Putin must have demanded integration in
stronger terms than he has done ever before.
While some of the former Soviet states’ leaders were meeting in
Ashgabat, U.S. Ambassador to Armenia John Heffern traveled back home
to persuade the Armenian-Americans to invest in Armenia. And Prime
Minister Tigran Sargsyan went to Germany and then to the United States
also for the purpose of soliciting investment.
The U.S. appears to have decided to test the method of so-called
“investment expansion” in Armenia. This method implies a large inflow
of Western investment which would help not only transform the business
culture in Armenia, which Washington appears to be unhappy with, but
also prevent the “sovietization” of the South Caucasus country. Russia
now is still the leader in terms of investments in Armenia, but this
year the volumes of its investments have decreased.
Now it is a guessing game for local analysts as to what President
Serzh Sargsyan will decide in this respect. He is unlikely to change
his European integration course before the presidential election that
has been slated for February 18, as such a change of policy would
deprive him not only of key support from the West, but also a weighty
argument in the unfolding election campaign. It is not excluded that
Sargsyan will build his whole campaign on the idea of European
integration, and his main rival, Prosperous Armenia Party led by
affluent businessman Gagik Tsarukyan known for his ties with Russia
and some autocratic post-Soviet leaders, yields to Sargsyan in this
respect.
Andrew Weiss, who served as director for Russian, Ukrainian, and
Eurasian Affairs on the National Security Council staff under U.S.
President Bill Clinton and now heads the RAND Center for Russia and
Eurasia, believes that elites in post-Soviet countries are “not in a
rush” to give their sovereignty back to Moscow.
It is obvious that in order to promote its “Eurasian integration”
Moscow will use the “stick” because it does not have enough “carrots”
even for itself, and especially that the “carrots” in the West taste
better. Meanwhile, the West seems to have set itself the task of
stopping Moscow from intimidating former Soviet republics into taking
action for reintegration. In this context Clinton’s statement means
that the West is ready to defend the post-Soviet countries from
Russian encroachments.
From: A. Papazian
http://armenianow.com/commentary/analysis/41807/usa_against_ussr_clinton_armenia_relations_russia