Author: Andres-Papazian

The Last Rally

Haik Aramyan
Comments – Saturday, 09 March 2013, 14:22

Raffi Hovannisian has stated for several times that March 10 rally
will be a U-turn. Similar timings and promises were heard in previous
rallies as well. On March 5 he waited for Serzh Sargsyan to go to
Freedom Square and announce about his resignation. Of course, Raffi
Hovannisian is not so ingenuous to think that Serzh Sargsyan will go
to Freedom Square and announce about his resignation. Or will resign
at all. At the same time, a resignation is not impossible under
certain circumstances. The secretary of Heritage Party Stepan Safaryan
has stated this clearly during the rally on March 5. `We must take
steps which will send the government into majority,’ he said, adding
that as soon as the axis of resistance departs from people-government
line, they will lose. It is true that he did not specify the steps
that will corner the government. Neither do the other speakers of the
rallies, including Raffi Hovannisian. There may be such steps but they
are not made known. It is possible that Raffi will speak about these
steps tomorrow, on March 10. Moreover, Raffi must speak about it
because the rally of March 10 may be the last rally of the movement
which may transform to a `traditional opposition movement’ which will
end up in defeat, Stepan Safaryan says. A movement and opposition
struggle are different things and have different logics. A movement
must be possibly transparent and open and no statements or promises
must be made from the rostrum that will not be carried out. It sends
people into doubts and despair. In fact, the greatest disadvantage of
the Armenian political class is the value of speech, or more exactly,
the lack of awareness of the value of speech. One of the stereotypes
of the political class is that politics is the art of deception. This
is the reason of defeat of the Armenian political class due to which
power was taken by the criminals and oligarchs. People must not be
deceived and abandoned by reserving the right to lead and direct them.
Meanwhile, this has been the main occupation of the Armenian
oppositions. They made false promises and offered unreal mechanisms.
There is no need to forget that in the beginning was the word. It
depends on its nature whether people will believe or not. The prospect
of `traditionalism’ of the new movement seems quite real considering
Raffi’s negotiations with the political parties which are not made
known to the public. In this case, only the group will be left on the
square which has nothing to do with the movement and is overwhelmed by
hatred which will not lead anywhere. Meanwhile, the movement will
continue in the same logic, and it will be difficult to stop the
political class.

From: A. Papazian

LOI DE PENALISATION
L’association « Arménia » s’adresse au Président F. Hollande « La Loi
de pénalisation du négationnisme du génocide, c’est maintenant ! »

L’Association culturelle « Arménia » (Valence-Drôme) vient de lancer
un appel au Président François Hollande intitulé « La Loi de
pénalisation du négationnisme du génocide, c’est maintenant ! ». En
appui, une pétition lancée dans la région de Valence et qui a déjà
recueilli plusieurs centaines de signatures.

Vous pouvez également apporter vos soutiens en écrivant à l’adresse :
Arménia, 130 rue Marcel Paul 26500 Bourg-Lès-Valence ou par mail à
[email protected]

dimanche 10 mars 2013,
Krikor Amirzayan ©armenews.com

From: A. Papazian

OPINION
PIEGE A C…, par René Dzagoyan

Le 26 février 2013, lors de la commémoration des pogroms de Soumgaït à
l’Assemblée Nationale, deux militants azéris se sont livrés à des
provocations physiques, dont l’objectif évident était de jeter le
discrédit sur la communauté arménienne en se faisant passer, comme il
se doit, pour des victimes de leurs victimes. Quelques jours
auparavant, dans la nuit du 15 février, c’était à Milan cette fois,
que les envoyés spéciaux du président Aliev dérobaient les brochures
et arrachaient les affiches du stand du Haut-Karabagh au Salon du
Tourisme organisée par la ville italienne, tout en placardant des
affiches alentour frappées de leur slogan habituel. Inutile ici de
rappeler l’abjecte mise en scène de la grce présidentielle attribuée
à l’Azéri dont le seul fait d’arme a été d’assassiner un officier
arménien dans son sommeil et dont le nom est devenu aujourd’hui
synonyme d’héroïsme en Azerbaïdjan et de lcheté dans le reste du
monde.

Le caractère purement politique de ces événements interdit
naturellement d’y voir le résultat de simples pulsions spontanées
d’individus incontrôlables, mais bien la manifestation d’une politique
concertée dont il convient enfin de déchiffrer les causes et les
objectifs. Car, enfin, venant d’un Etat qui, grce à ces pétrodollars,
bénéficient des conseils d’agences de communication expérimentée, à
quoi ces événements riment-ils ?

Une des clés de leur explication réside sans doute dans l’impasse où
se trouve aujourd’hui l’Azerbaïdjan de faire passer dans l’opinion
publique internationale et ses médias, et delà dans l’espace
politique, l’image de démocratie occidentale éclairée, bouclier de
l’anti-islamisme dans le Caucase et victime de cette Etat inféodé à la
Russie poutinienne, image qui lui permettrait de grignoter l’espace de
sympathie acquis par l’Arménie et sa Diaspora au cours du temps. Le
seul hic est que cette stratégie se heurte à un obstacle de taille :
le 1er prix attribué par l’Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting
Project à l’homme le plus corrompu de la planète a été attribué au
président Aliev. En terme d’image toujours, le concours de
l’Eurovision à Bakou n’a eu pour seul effet que de ternir un peu plus
l’aura de son clan et Human Rights Watch classe l’Azerbaïdjan parmi
les pays les plus oppressifs de la région. Ultime humiliation : la
statue de Geydar Aliev, le père, proclamé génie de l’humanité et
érigée à ce titre dans un parc de Mexico est déboulonnée. Les millions
de dollars déversés par son fils Ilham pour redorer le blason de
l’autocratie pétrolière héritée de papa se soldent par un désastre.
Alors que faire ?

Faute de pouvoir rehausser les attraits de leur Etat féodal par une
propagande digne des meilleurs penseurs du nazisme, les dirigeants
azéris n’ont plus d’autres issues que de ternir l’image de leur
adversaire : l’Arménien, où qu’il se trouve. Les manifestations
azéries en France ou en Italie sont des bides ? Qu’importe.
Pourrissons les manifestations arméniennes. Les commémorations
azéries, notamment celle de Khodjalou organisée à Paris, passent
inaperçues ? Qu’importe. Dévalorisons celles de Soumgaït. Les seuls
touristes en Azerbaïdjan sont ceux que l’on paie pour les attirer ?
Qu’importe. Saccageons les stands de tourisme du Karabagh. Quand on
n’a plus rien à vendre, il faut empêcher l’autre de gagner des parts
de marché. Désormais, l’Azerbaïdjan n’a plus d’autre tactique.

Aussi, dans les jours et dans les mois qui viennent, à défaut de
proposer des actions positives qui permettraient de mettre
l’Azerbaïdjan en valeur (on se demande bien ce qu’ils pourraient
trouver), les manifestations arméniennes deviendront le seul point
d’appui à la propagande azérie avec pour tactique d’entraîner la
communauté arménienne vers le seul terrain qu’il leur soit familier :
la violence et avec pour objectif de translater l’action arménienne de
son terrain traditionnel, le terrain politique, vers une problématique
interethnique.

A l’approche du centennaire du Génocide, il est évident que tomber
dans le piège de l’ethnicisation de la question arménienne serait
mortel pour notre cause. Aussi, la seule interrogation est de savoir
si les organisations arméniennes qui se revendiquent (et parfois à
titre exclusif) de l’action politique en France sauront éviter ce
piège. Des événements récents prouvent que non, en tout cas pas
toujours. Comme aurait pu le dire Pierre Dac, la question fondamentale
qui s’impose quand l’on tombe dans un piège à c…, est de savoir ce
que l’on est.

René Dzagoyan
Paru dans Azad Magazine

samedi 9 mars 2013,
Ara ©armenews.com

From: A. Papazian

ORER
Armenian European Magazine “Days”
(Since 1999 in Prague)

Czech Helsinki Committee Writes to Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
Acting President Kevin Klose: Stop Discrimination of Radio’s Foreign
Staff in Prague and the Resulting Lawsuits

08 March, 2013 | 13:21

PRAHA. – In a sharply-worded letter to the Radio Free Europe/Radio
Liberty recently assigned Acting President Kevin Klose, Czech Helsinki
Committee urges him to end the discrimination of RFE/RL foreign
personnel in Prague and stop by peaceful resolutions the resulting
ongoing lawsuits.

The case of Armenian national, Anna Karapetian, mother of three minor
children, is in the Czech Supreme Court. Lawsuit brought by Croatian
citizen Snjezana Pelivan against Czech Republic, is pending in the
European Court of Human Rights in Strasbourg. Snjezana Pelivan, former
employee of Radio Free Europe, is suing Czech Republic, the host
country to American RFE/RL, for failing to safeguard her rights to
non-discrimination and fair trial guarantied by European Convention
for the Protection of Human Rights and Fundamental Freedoms.

The letter to Kevin Klose is signed by the Czech Helsinki Committee
Chairperson Anna Sabatova. A former political prisoner in communist
Czechoslovakia, she shares the United Nations Human Rights Award with
Eleanor Roosevelt, Martin Luther King, Nelson Mandela, Jimmy Carter,
and such international organizations as Human Rights Watch and Amnesty
International.

Snjezana Pelivan has requested Croatian government to support her
human rights claim against Czech Republic in Strasbourg. Zagreb
on-line newspaper, The Croatian Times , reported that Mrs. Karapetian
and Mrs. Pelivan consider also an appeal against the United States and
Czech Republic to the United Nations Human Rights Council in
Geneva. Several countries of 47 UN Council members belong to RFE/RL
broadcasting area.

>From its Prague headquarters, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
broadcasts to 21 countries – of the former Soviet Union and
Yugoslavia, Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan. In 28 languages
RFE/RL proclaims its official mission:

“to promote democratic values and institutions,” “strengthen civil
societies by projecting democratic values,” “provide a model for local
media,” etc.

Hundreds of foreigners constitute the balk of RFE/RL editorial
personnel.

In its letter, Czech Helsinki Committee defined RFE/RL actions toward
its foreign employees as “deceptive,” representing “an act of fraud”:

“As a matter of course, RFE/RL provides its foreign personnel with
standardized employment agreements, stating: `Conditions of employment
are governed by the applicable laws of the United States, the laws of
the District of Columbia or the policies of the Company.’ This is
deliberately deceptive statement. In reality, American labor and civil
laws, by will of U.S. Congress, are not applicable to foreign
citizens. Being foreigners working for American employer abroad, they
are exempt from whatever protection is provided to Americans according
to U.S. labor regulations, civil and human rights laws.”

RFE/RL foreign employees, to whom American laws could not be legally
applied, are exempt also from protection of Czech labor
regulations. Placed deliberately in legal vacuum, they can be fired
according to RFE/RL internal Policy Manual: without cause, without
stated reason, without advance notice, without any preliminary
disciplinary measures, and even without severance compensation for
years of service if they refuse to accept an arbitrary termination and
give up in writing the right of appeal.

Czech Helsinki Committee notes:

” Discriminatory labor policies practiced by RFE/RL toward its foreign
employees came also to attention of the deputies of Czech Parliament
who brought it up in their inquiries.”

Prominent Czech Senator, writer and publicist Jaromir Stetina, who
personally protested violations of human rights in Cuba, Russia and
Belarus, branded RFE/RL’s treatment of its foreign employees as
“patently indecent, unfair, cynical and hypocritical.”

Writing to RFE/RL Acting President Kevin Klose, Czech Helsinki
Committee quotes the editorial article of conservative Czech
newspaper, Lidove noviny ,”Equality with preconditions”:

“Prague headquarters of RFE/RL, which pretends to be a messenger of
freedom, democracy and the rule of law, behaves as an employer in such
a way as if the principles it heralds, are relevant “just” for the
whole planet but not for what is going on inside that estimable
organization itself.”

The oldest Czech newspaper compares legal status of RFE/RL foreign
employees in Prague to that of “aborigines void of rights.”

Their plight is exemplified by the ongoing court cases of Snjezana
Pelivan and Anna Karapetian. Multilingual media echo accompanying
their lawsuits – in English, Russian, Czech, Armenian, Slovak,
Croatian, etc. – is disastrous for moral standing, international
political and public reputation of American RFE/RL:

“betrayal of ideals”, “hypocrisy,” “Guantanamo in Prague,” “violation
of human rights,” “lawlessness,” “double standards,” “moral disaster,”
“fraud,” “cynicism,” “public idiocy instead of public diplomacy#”

An instrument of American public diplomacy, Radio Free Europe/Radio
Liberty is financed by American Congress via Federal agency
Broadcasting Board of Governors (BBG) in Washington. The Board
consists of eight members assigned by the President of the United
States and then confirmed by U.S. Senate. The Secretary of State,
presently John Kerry, sits on BBG ex officio. Simultaneously,
Broadcasting Board of Governors serves as the RFE/RL’s Board of
Directors.

RFE/RL is shaken by international scandals not only in Prague. In
Moscow, the Radio summarily and brutally fired last September over
thirty experienced employees, the core of its editorial personnel, in
pursuit of some new, larger audience. It failed miserably, triggering
instead an avalanche of devastating media publications and angry
protests from Russian opposition political and public figures,
including Nobel Peace Prize laureate Mikhail Gorbachev and Lyudmila
Alexeeva, the legendary head of the Moscow Helsinki Group.

Scandal in Moscow has culminated in resignation last December of the
then RFE/RL President Steven Korn. He was replaced by the Acting
President Kevin Klose who arrived to Prague on February 4thwith a
clear mandate: to curtail the self-made calamities besieging RFE/RL as
the tool of American public diplomacy. Till now, however, the
situation remains the same, be it in Moscow or elsewhere.

On October 8, 2012, in its Open letter to American Congressional
Helsinki Commission, titled “Violations of Human Rights and Disregard
of Moral Principles by American Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
(RFE/RL) in Prague Should Not Go On,” Czech Helsinki Committee, in
solidarity with Russian human rights activists, stated:

“We consider deplorable RFE/RL activities in Prague and presently in
Moscow to be the links of the same chain.”

Quoting that statement, Czech Helsinki Committee concludes its letter
to the current head of RFE/RL, Kevin Klose, with a call to act:

“Presently, the rescue of public image of the radio station is
entrusted to you, in Russia as well as in Prague. We would like to ask
you for promoting the ending of the court cases with Mrs. Karapetian
and Mrs. Pelivan with the amicable settlement and the change of
discriminatory labor policies damaging, in our opinion, the reputation
of RFE/RL.”

From: A. Papazian

PRESS RELEASE
Catholicosate of Cilicia
Communication and Information Department
Tel: (04) 410001, 410003
Fax: (04) 419724
E- mail: [email protected]
Web:

PO Box 70 317
Antelias-Lebanon

HIS HOLINESS ARAM I RECEIVES THE VICE-PRIME MINISTER OF KARABAGH

On Tuesday, 5 March 2013, at a two-hour meeting, Arthur Aghabekian, the
Vice-Prime Minister of Karabagh, briefed the Hi Holiness Aram I on the
efforts of the government of Karabagh to build the young country; the two
also discussed future plans.

At the end of the meeting His Holiness Aram I expressed his appreciation for
the achievements of the government in the areas of politics, economics and
social affairs, and congratulated President Bako Sahakian, for his
leadership. Catholicos Aram I also assured Arthur Aghabekian that the
Catholicosate of Cilicia would accompany the journey of their young country.
##
Photo:

From: A. Papazian

Global Insight
March 6, 2013

Armenia surpasses 2012 growth target, near-term outlook fairly positive

by Lilit Gevorgyan

Armenian economic activity posted relatively strong growth of 7.2% in
2012, exceeding the government’s 6.3% target for the year.

Another year for exceeded growth targets

The Armenian National Statistical Service reported that the real GDP
(at market prices) increased by 7.2% in 2012 as a whole, an
improvement from gains of 4.7% in 2011 and 2.2% in 2010. With the GDP
deflator falling by 1.6% in 2012, nominal GDP expanded by 5.6% in
2012, down from rises of 8.9% in 2011 and 10% in 2010.

Moreover, this result exceeds most expectations, coming above our
latest forecast (4.5%) and the consensus forecast (4.4%), as well as
the official target rate set by the government (6.3%).

Armenia’s robust economic performance in 2012 was a result of
continuing strong growth in agricultural and industrial sectors,
further supported by increased domestic trade volumes. Favourable
weather conditions, as well as the government’s decision to allow use
of water at minimal and in some cases, no cost, appear to have
contributed to good harvests. Conversely, expanding mining of metal
ores production driven by strong external demand was another major
contributor to Armenia’s better than expected economic performance in
2012. In terms of export profile, good harvest has lessened the need
for food imports; while the increase in external demand for Armenia’s
metal ores have aided to narrow the trade balance.

Agriculture and industry drive growth, construction falls again

A breakdown by sector shows that the important agricultural sector was
a major contributor to economic growth in 2012, with output from the
sector rising by 8.6% year-on-year (y/y) in the January-November
period when compared to a year earlier. As a result of the
exceptionally good harvest agricultural produce (excluding husbandry)
grew by impressive 12.2% in the January-November period.

The volume of industrial production also increased by 9.8% in 2012 as
a whole compared to 14.1% rise in the previous year. Specifically,
mining of metal ores output grew by 14.7% in 2012, while the other key
sectors, namely base metals and processed food production expanded by
9.2% and 4.6%, respectively. Meanwhile, construction activity fell for
a fourth consecutive year when it fell by 1.9% in 2012. It was
preceded by falls of 10% in 2011, 0.1% in 2010, and 27.3% in 2009. The
financial crisis of 2008/9 exposed and then burst a housing market
bubble, leaving an oversupply of high-value properties that continues
to weigh down on construction activity.

Persisting deep trade deficit

Armenia’s customs-basis merchandise trade shortfall remained
relatively stable in 2012, with the trade deficit standing at USD2.8
billion. Exports grew by 7% in 2012, totalling USD1.4 billion, helped
by a surge in agricultural exports to Russia and other CIS countries,
as well as stronger base metal exports. Meanwhile imports grew by 2.9%
y/y, reaching USD4.3 billion. Encouragingly, Armenian export volumes
have continued to grow since 2010, but lingering trade imbalances
remain a concern. On a positive note, access to concessional lending
is likely to mitigate external financing requirements in the medium
term.

Outlook and implications

Economic activity should continue to grow at a fairly robust rate in
the coming quarters, supported by a considerably strengthened
agricultural sector assuming good weather conditions hold, while the
mining sector has benefited from high international metal prices.
Nevertheless, annual growth is moderating again, as we expected. The
following months and quarters are likely to see growth somewhat
moderate, even if annual GDP expansion of around 4% in 2013 should be
achievable, which sits lower the official growth target of 6.3% set
out the approved 2013 budget plan. Our assumption of softer growth
performance in 2013 is a result of weaker export gains due a less
conducive environment for the country’s base metal exports while
growth in agricultural products is unlikely to match last year’s
results.

However, Armenia’s economic performance over the next 12 months will
depend on external factors, namely the level of inflow of workers’
remittances, as well as financial risks due to continuing European
sovereign debt crisis. That said, considering that relatively stable
economic conditions in Russia, were most of the guest workers seek
employment, no major disruptions of remittances are projected for
2013. The eased global commodity prices will provide less of a boost
for output value growth in the industrial sector, further suppressing
metal export values. The weakened dram will continue suppressing
imports, while it also gives some support for export competitiveness.
The instability of the external environment poses major risks to the
outlook.

Armenia’s access to international lenders such as the International
Monetary Fund (IMF) is unlikely to change in 2013, mitigating the
risks to overall economic performance. However, the country needs
deeper structural reforms, including dismantling existing monopolistic
structures, to unlock its economic potential in the coming years. With
the strengthening of opposition movement in recent months the public
spotlight will be on the country’s economic performance, particularly
on issues of competitiveness. It is hoped that the public involvement
and scrutiny will improve business environment and increase economic
opportunities in Armenia and ultimately contribute to its economy’s
better performance.

From: A. Papazian

Russian and Turkish Deputy Foreign Ministers discussed Nagorno-Karabakh conflict

21:16, 7 March, 2013

YEREVAN, MARCH 7, ARMENPRESS: Deputy Foreign Ministers of Russia and
Turkey accordingly Grigory Karasin and Feridun SinirlioÃ?Â?lu have
discussed issues regarding Nagorno-Karabakh conflict during March 7
meeting, Armenpress reports referring to press service of Russian MFA.

Interlocutors have discussed number of international and regional
issues, including current situation in Central Asia and Caucasian
region.

From: A. Papazian

NKR President issued congratulations on the occasion of International
Woman’s Day

20:24, 7 March, 2013

YEREVAN, MARCH 7, ARMENPRESS: President of Nagorno-Karabakh Republic
Bako Sahakyan issued a congratulatory message on the occasion of
International Women’s Day. As reports Armenpress, it is mainly noted
in the message:

`Dear women,

On behalf of the Artsakh Republic authorities and personally myself I
congratulate you cordially on the March 8 International Woman’s Day.
This is a day that provided another occasion to express our infinite
love and address warm words of gratitude to you – our mothers and
grandmothers, wives and sisters, daughters and all the Armenian women,
both in Artsakh, Armenia and the Diaspora. We are deeply grateful to
you and appreciate your true devotion and care, the kindness and
warmth that you shed every day and every hour.

On this festive day I wish you, your family and friends, robust health
and happiness, peace and prosperity. May joy always reign in your
hearths and you always be surrounded with immense warmth, attention
and care.

Be confident that problems you face are always in the spotlight of
Artsakh Republic authorities and everything will be done to solve
them.

I congratulate all of you once more and wish great success and all the best’.

From: A. Papazian

$30m of Arthur Pinajian art found in Long Island garage
Two homeowners who bought a run-down cottage for $300,000 made the
investment of a lifetime after finding a treasure trove of art worth
an estimated $30 million in the garage.

Thomas Schultz, of Bellport, NY, sorting through artwork by Arthur
Pinajian Photo: Kirk J Condyles

By Nick Allen, Los Angeles7:56PM GMT 07 Mar 2013

Thomas Schultz and his friend Larry Joseph – who are both investors –
purchased the ramshackle bungalow in Bellport, New York in 2007,
hoping to renovate it.
But inside they found thousands of paintings and drawings by obscure
Armenian-American artist Arthur Pinajian, who had died in 1999 at the
age of 85.
Pinajian, a former resident of the property who struggled to find
success in the art world all his life, had instructed that the works
be thrown away when he died. His wishes were ignored, and they
remained gathering dust amid bugs, vermin and mould.

Mr Schultz, a local Bellport resident and his friend Mr Joseph, a
writer and businessman, paid an extra $2,500 for the art collection
and set about restoring it.

The pieces included abstract expressionist paintings, landscapes,
sketches from the Second World War, illustrations for 1930s comic
books, and images from the 1960 Woodstock artist colonies. In all,
there were more than 3,000 paintings, drawings and illustrations.
Some of the abstract paintings are currently being exhibited in New
York and are on sale for up to $87,000 each.
According to News 12 Long Island, the collection was valued by Peter
Hastings Falk, author of Who Was Who in American Art. He also once
appraised art from the Andy Warhol estate.
Mr Falk told The Armenian Weekly: “He (Pinajian) painted every day but
no one saw his art. He received no reviews and not one of his
paintings or works on paper ever was shown in a New York gallery or
museum.”
Untitled Landscape Bellport by Arthur Pinajian
Pinajian struggled financially and relied on his secretary sister for
support. The siblings lived together most of their lives and neither
married.
Speaking to the New York Times following the discovery of the artworks
in 2007, Pinajian’s cousin, John Aramian, said: “He thought he was
going to be the next Picasso. They believed he would become famous and
this would all pay off for them one day but it just never happened.
“So he became frustrated and withdrew from everything and just painted.”
American art historian William Innes Homer, who died last year, had
compared Pinajian to a “lone researcher in a laboratory pursuing
knowledge for its own sake.”
The art historian wrote: “He pursued his goals in isolation with the
single-minded focus of a Gauguin or Cézanne, refusing to give up in
the face of public indifference.
“He was passionate and unequivocally committed. Ultimately, Pinajian’s
work reflects the soul of a flawed, yet brilliant, artistic genius.
When he hits the mark, especially in his abstractions, he can be
ranked among the best artists of his era.”

From: A. Papazian

“To be or not to be”: another Shakespeare-style post-election drama in Armenia
by Martin Jermakyan

Published: Thursday March 07, 2013

Serge Sargsyan and Raffi Hovannisian meet after the election. Photolure

“Marcellus: Something is rotten in the state of Denmark.
Horatio: Heaven will direct it.”

>From William Shakespeare’s “Hamlet”

A question that begs to be asked is if you do the same experiment
under the same conditions five times, and for four times you get
identical results, what is there to suggest that the fifth time it
will produce a different result?

This question is of high practical relevance to the Armenian reality –
both within the confines of the Republic and Diaspora. However,
Diaspora is not the subject of this article and the arrow of the quick
thoughts released herein is pointed at the Republic even though when
speaking of the experiments conducted by the Diaspora their number may
be not in the range of five but fifty.

Raffi Hovannisyan, with all due respect for his demeanor and conduct
and for his introduction of a not greater-than-life ego on the
Armenian political landscape, has given strong indications that he is
not really interested in holding the position of the President of
Armenia – at least as far as the president’s governing functions are
concerned. At best he is positioning himself as a Minister of Foreign
Affairs even if hypothetically speaking Serge Sargisyan would
surrender the post of presidency to him. Maybe Mr. Hovannisyan is
simply soberly assessing the reality in terms of what it takes to
govern over the Republic of Armenia. If yes then it is commendable.

In essence his offer to President Sargisyan is equivalent to the
latter’s maintenance of shadow presidency continuing to govern over
the country. And while claiming to pretend to be Armenia’s President
Mr. Hovannisyan proposes to help Mr. Sargisyan to stage a radical
shift of country’s foreign policy from Ter-Petrosyan-Libaridyan
paradigms to a paradigm kin to that of Hovannisyan senior and ARF –
with all due respect to the latter two.

Meanwhile Mr. Hovannisyan’s serenades addressed to Mr. Sargisyan sound
like guarantees of security and immunity offered to Mr. Sargisyan and
perhaps his extended family. But logically Mr. Sargisyan doesn’t need
to become a shadow president while he retains in his hands all the
levers of governance over the Republic and beyond. If he agrees with
Mr. Hovannisyan’s foreign policy agenda and paradigms as it pertains
in particular to Turkey and Karabagh, he will implement them himself
and without the creation of an apparatus of a make-believe presidency.

Mr. Hovannisyan’s negotiations, post-electoral tactics and his
self-positioning for the future developments in Armenia seem focused
on proving that `he was right’ and his foreign policy paradigms were
unduly dismissed by Ter-Petrosyan culminated in his dismissal from the
post of the foreign minister of Armenia in early nineties.

All evidence suggests that President Sargisyan does not think that the
Ter-Petrosyan-Libaridyan foreign policy paradigms have exhausted
themselves and he will continue this line until there is strong
evidence in favor of a U-turn. This is also perhaps why the
Ter-Petrosyan team has not given its backing to Mr. Hovannisyan so
far.

The same resource base for governance

Mr. Hovannisyan didn’t have the resources to appoint his trusted
representatives for monitoring purposes into almost half of the
electoral stations of Armenia. I would appreciate an explanation as to
how he is going to mass the resources needed in order to govern a
zoo-like country such as Armenia – that is, of course, if he is not
counting on Mr. Sargisyan to fulfill the mission of daily governance
with the utilization of currently available to the latter resources.

The sad reality of things which even Mr. Sargisyan cannot afford not
to take into consideration is that there is a finite number of people
in Armenia, maybe up to some twenty thousand, currently involved and,
for better or worse, capable of performing daily governance functions.
They constitute an inheritance from Soviet Armenia or have been
wittingly or unwittingly incubated in Ter-Petrosyan era but have been
truly unleashed in Kocharyan era of chieftainship and feudalization.
They are apolitical, flexible and mobile and when needed they join the
roles of the needed party.

This is how All-Armenia National Movement got its critical mass in its
good old days and this is why it got corrupted afterwards. This is
also how the currently ruling Republican Party of Armenia got its
human resources on mass scale – from All-Armenian National Movement in
the second half of 1990s – overseen by late Vazgen Sargsyan. This
shift was finalized when Serge Sargsyan combined the roles of
president and the Republican Party leader.

If by some divine miracle tomorrow Mr. Hovannisyan is going to indeed
become the President of Armenia or `Zharangutiun’ is going to become
the ruling party, the bureaucratic apparatus is going to switch
overnight to the latter and `Zharangutiun’ is going to have no choice
but to take them in due to its lack of any other alternatives for
governance. One can confidently conjecture that if Mr. Hovannisyan was
able to govern Armenia post-elections he would’ve been able to take
the elections with all the outrageous violations that there were.

However, it is noteworthy that time has come for a generational shift
in Armenia’s governing structure and personnel as a consequence of the
aging of the current rulers, expiration of their constitutional
eligibility mandate for further governance and exhaustion of the
current modus operandi of governance. However the puzzle is where to
take the corresponding resources from.

Can Serge and Raffi cooperate on political transition?

The important question on the Armenian political landscape today is
not whether Mr. Hovannisyan can force Mr. Sargisyan to accept the
results of elections the way Mr. Hovannisyan perhaps not without basis
thinks he should. This question has a very concise answer – he cannot.
While pretending to be a democratic country, and even though enjoying
a rather high degree of freedom of speech and freedom of thinking,
Armenia is a barricaded country and the culture of no war-no peace
governs over her.

The important question is how the coming five years are going to be
utilized for the transition of Armenia to a civic society while
maintaining a defensive capacity a strong and adequate to the existing
and emerging threats? How is the generational shift going to be
implemented and how new operational, administrative, economic and
foreign policy paradigms are going to be shaped and managed in Armenia
when the structure of existing military and geopolitical balance is
changing, turning the region Armenia belongs to into the most volatile
one? This is no small matter.

When all talk around the respective coffee tables in Armenia and
Diaspora has exhausted itself this is what is going to define the
quality and pace of transition.

If there is something Mr. Hovannisyan can accomplish is a consensus
with Mr. Sargisyan on organized transition to a new political culture
within the coming five years and thereafter. Mr. Hovannisyan can also
have a strong influence over this process. With all the due criticism
and available dissatisfaction with both Mr. Sargisyan and Mr.
Hovannisyan, they are both patriots. They are also not egomaniacs,
making achievement of constructive results possible.

Mr. Hovannisyan and Mr. Sargsyan can help accelerate the formation of
nonpartisan youth civic organizations in Armenia emerged as a bright
light on the Armenian landscape as of late. They can render support to
these organizations simply by not hampering or corrupting their
evolution and without interference and attempts to turn them into
political pawns in some chess games. Let these civic organizations, as
infant as they are today, define their political posturing themselves
when required. Too many artificial political parties and civic
organizations have been coopted by the government and opposition. Mr.
Sargisyan and Mr. Hovannisyan should help the non-partisan youth
exercise due ownership rights over Armenia for Armenia to have future.
And the timing is right.

President Sargisyan has seen it all from day one of the new Armenian
Renaissance in late 1980s and he has it all. All he has left to worry
about is the legacy he will have to leave behind when gone. He should
support the orderly transformation of Armenia from what is a
para-militarized governing structure to a civic constitutional one.
And this doesn’t have to be at the expense of an even stronger
Armenian army. This is not a zero-sum game. Civic society and a
strong army can coexist. In fact the army will get only stronger when
instead of the generals the solders and the ones who support them feel
that they are the owners of the country.

Mr. Hovannisyan can be very instrumental in helping the accomplishment
of this mission and the history of Armenia will glorify him more for
its success than for a failed presidency. Meanwhile he is in a tough
spat too – damned if you engage in a constructive dialog, damned if
you escalate confrontation and damned if you get out of the stage all
together. In either case, form a personal point of view, Mr.
Hovannisyan doesn’t have a good alternative – he has to choose who he
would rather make angry and what purpose he would rather serve. It
remains to hope that being a patriot and a civilized man he will make
the right choice.

From: A. Papazian