SOUTH CAUCASUS 2 YEARS AFTER THE WAR IN GEORGIA: LESSONS OF THE BLITZKRIEG
Yekaterina Poghosyan
PanARMENIAN News
Yerevan, Baku and Tbilisi once again faced the “bitter” reality –
Russia remains the sole force exercising domination in the region.
Consequences of the five-day war that was launched in Georgia at
the night of 8 August 2008, affected every South Caucasus country
in its own way. Georgia, long enough playing American democracy,
finally lost Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and the Georgian leader,
unable to justify the hopes of Western protege, acquired the image
of an “unpredictable teenager”. The unsuccessful Georgian experience
of a military solution to the self-proclaimed Abkhazia and South
Ossetia can be picturesquely described as a “cold shower” for the
Azerbaijani leadership, reducing the probability of launching a new
military action in Karabakh for a certain period of time.
August 13, 2010PanARMENIAN.Net – Armenia found herself in a no less
difficult situation because of the August blitzkrieg. Trapped for
some time in a full blockade and isolation, Armenian leadership
tried to take a balanced position and not to offend either the
“brotherly neighbor” or the “strategic ally”. This policy of Yerevan
worked and even strengthened Armenia’s image as a constructive and
reliable partner.
Despite the difference in the tasks that the August war individually
set before each South Caucasus country, Yerevan, Baku and Tbilisi
once again faced the “bitter” reality – Russia remains the sole
force exercising domination in the region, and no democracy games,
“football diplomacy” and other projects initiated by the United States
can change the reality. It comes out that today the South Caucasus
countries, among other things, face a common challenge – Moscow’s
increasing influence and military presence in the region. Based on
these realities, Azerbaijan, talking on and on about her endless
energy resources, is trying to become more attractive for the West,
but at the same time not to offend her northern neighbor. Georgia is
bending over backwards to regain her credibility of a “small but too
democratic country” and somehow break in the NATO club. As for Armenia,
she smoothly pursues the Russian course, allowing the strategic ally
to extend her military bases’ presence on her territory for another
49 years.
Unfortunately, no country in the region learnt the necessary lesson
from the five-day war in Georgia. Azerbaijan has not ceased to arm and
the risk of unleashing another armed conflict still exists. Tbilisi
continues seeking Georgia’s future everywhere but in the South
Caucasus, and Armenia can become a hostage in Russia’s ambitions to
rebuild the Soviet Union. Regional leaders have not yet realized that
prosperity and stability in the region can be achieved only if the
regional projects initiated by the South Caucasus countries are not
mutually exclusive, but complementary. No outside force can ever help
these countries to finally overcome their problems and controversies,
as they do not view the region as an independent entity. The South
Caucasus remains the epicenter of the clash of the superpowers’
geopolitical interests, and Yerevan, Tbilisi and Baku are only
instruments serving these interests.
From: A. Papazian