COMMAND HAS TO YIELD
Lragir.am
05 Oct 2010
In an interview with “Irates de facto”, political analyst Igor
Muradyan said he does not think the 1994 victory in the Karabakh
war is brilliant, because the Armenian troops, stopping attempts by
Azerbaijan to make a change in the course of hostilities, did not
establish control over the greater part of Karabakh. NKR army failed
to return Shahumyan and the lowland Karabakh territory, lost control
of the major Horadiz node. In these circumstances, we cannot say that
the assertions about the need to complete the work, are unacceptable,
said Igor Muradyan. (In his recent articles he sounded the forecast
that the only way out for Armenia may become a new war). The Armenian
armed forces did not aim to reach the Kura, but it could enable to
be successful in politics, the analyst believes. He believes that
then unskillful figures were engaged in Armenia’s diplomacy, and the
army was commanded by non-professionals, and for the past 15 years,
Armenia has pursued ineffective foreign policy.
“The problem of foreign policy consists in the fact that it has always
been directed to the satisfaction of interests and security of the
political leadership and their environment”, says Igor Muradyan. In
the Karabakh settlement, Armenia adopted a waiting position, and
does not promote any tasks in the international arena. All actions
of Armenia are determined by some challenges and threats. Armenia
rejected NKR international recognition: the political leadership
has never had such a desire. Issues connected with Karabakhi lost
territories, Armenian refugees and Azerbaijan’s aggressive behavior
were removed from the agenda. Armenia undertook its relationship
with Turkey, not realizing until the end the true purposes of their
authors, and allowed Turkey to become a member of Karabakh process,
said Igor Muradyan. Having a lot of resources and ways to ensure the
security of Armenia, it has replaced its own defense with unclear
relations with Russia. Armenia did not take preventive measures,
and now Azerbaijan, in fact, started a slow war against Karabakh,
trying to force Armenia to make concessions.
The political scientist thinks that the international situation in
the current moment is quite expedient for Armenia and partially for
Karabakh. All world centers – U.S., Russia, Iran – support Armenia,
which is rendered into a serious factor in repressing the Turkish
expansion. Turkey is isolated now, says Igor Muradyan. In Armenia
everything is ensured for normal life. Azerbaijan is rendered into a
“kerosene barrel” and every time it is warned that starting a war, it
will lose more than the territories. The fact that Azerbaijan cannot
exist within the present borders is set not only in regional projects,
but also in the general doctrine of redrawing of world borders, says
Igor Muradyan. Many do not connect long-term plans with Azerbaijan.
This nation is destined to lose not only its state but also its
homeland, says Igor Muradyan. Azerbaijan must either come to terms
with the loss of new territories or be contented with something on
what it has no rights, or become a satellite of Turkey and disappear
in the clashes that would arise as a result of the Turkish elite’s
imperial ambitions.
But if Armenia will not be initiative, once it will lose the status of
geopolitical factor. The statement of the “Big three” could absolutely
deprive Azerbaijan of hope and be quite different if the Armenian
diplomacy was more active and more intelligent, says Igor Muradyan.
Armenia has stated that the acceptable settlement of the conflict for
it will be the version in which NKR is recognized as an independent
state, a land connection with Armenia is provided and international
security guarantees are given. And experts refer to this arguing that
in this context, the OSCE Madrid principles fully meet the interests of
Armenia. But the proposed format of the Armenian leadership does not
provide security not only for Nagorno-Karabakh, but also for Armenia,
said Igor Muradyan.
The political scientist thinks that probability of resumption of
hostilities is determined by the existence of agreements between
Azerbaijan and Turkey which is impossible now. Turkey can be interested
in a war with Karabakh if it feels strict isolation and decides to show
its role in the region. “Azerbaijan chose the tactic of “small” wars-
diversion attacks, provocations and this will sooner or later bring
about a war, but started by Armenia. Of course, if Armenia is sure that
war is not the worst thing, and there is hope for a final victory. Not
the one who is ready for war, but the one who starts it will win,
said Igor Muradyan. In addition, there are two versions of the war:
if Turkey is interested or if Turkey is not interested. Armenia’s
military command did great services to the motherland, but it’s time
to give up its place.
“The Armenian leadership, with an amazing sequence, is struggling with
any initiative in Karabakh and the Diaspora”, says Igor Muradyan.
Moreover, the problems that Armenia faces turned out worse than
the power expected. Armenia faces the task of becoming an important
regional factor and a major partner of the world’s centers. This is
possible if “the Armenian network”, the capacity of which exceeds the
capabilities of some states, reorganizes. Several states are trying
to neutralize the influence of the Armenian network. They fail, but
the Armenian reality is not trying to reorganize the structure of the
network. We lose time, do not set specific targets, but there is the
premise that new structures that are being created will begin a more
extensive and effective work.
From: A. Papazian