I AM NOT OPTIMISTIC FOR PROGRESS IN KARABAKH SETTLEMENT
news.az
Oct 22 2010
Azerbaijan
Prof. Dr. Tayyar Ari News.Az ıntervıews Prof. Dr. Tayyar Ari,
Professor of International Relations at Uludag University in Turkey.
How can you assess the current level of Azerbaijani-Turkish ties? And
how would you assess the importance of the agreement on strategic
partnership and mutual support signed recently between the presidents
of Azerbaijan and Turkey?
The process between Turkey and Armenia has negatively affected the
relations between Turkey and Azerbaijan, since some suspicions arose
in the minds of the public opinions about the events. Although the
current level of the relations is not on the desired level, it can
be said that it’s on the increase. Signature of the agreements on
strategic partnership and mutual support is a sign of this process. In
this context, “confidence” and “comprehension” are the key points
for the bilateral relations.
Confidence between both Turkic states is very important and
very strong and should not be harmed by any behavior. And also
comprehension of the issues (e.g. Turkish attitude towards Armenia)
is very crucial. The decision makers of the both countries should
create special communication links different than ordinary diplomatic
channels. And by using these links they should explain and comprehend
each other their positions in order to avoid misunderstandings.
It should be noted that there is no substitute of the relations among
Turkey and Azerbaijan, and politicians as well as journalists, public
opinion leaders and the media should be more sensitive and responsible
in reflecting the situation. Fortunately, on the political level both
sides demonstrated their willingness to soup up the confidence.
Turkish Prime Minister as well as Minister of Foreign Affairs confirmed
their commitment to the cause of Azerbaijan public about the occupied
territories several times.
In this respect, the agreement of strategic partnership is a very
important process that shows how strong their relations are and the
relations cannot be given up or bargained. President Gul and President
Aliyev proved their desire to enhance the relation in every level.
This is also the sign of Turkish seriousness about the concern and
consideration of Azerbaijan.
Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan proposed the Caucasus
Stability and Cooperation Platform soon after the August war between
Georgia and Russia. What do you think about the prospects of this idea?
Actually this is a part of Turkish new foreign policy activism in the
2000s. Still pursuing the European Union membership goal, Turkey also
tries to create different channels in the nearby. Developing friendly
relations with all sides is the key point for this policy. In this
context stability in the Caucasia is very crucial for Turkey. The so
called Caucasus Stability and Cooperation Platform proposed by Turkish
Prime Minister Erdogan during the war between Georgia and Russia is
a search to find a solution existing problems by diplomatic means
rather than use of military force. For this purpose it was assumed
to establish a multilateral mechanism among the concerning parties
to maintain peace and to prevent misunderstandings. This is very
consistent with Turkish foreign policy approach which depends on
soft power and interdependency relations to establish multilateral
cooperation to engage all parties. At the same time Turkey cleverly
showed Russia and USA that it is an important player who can determine
the rules of game and no longer it cannot be ignored. So the process
showed that, in order to preserve stability and peace in the south
Caucasus Turkey should be taken into account.
The establishment of such project is another issue but both global
powers appreciated and indicated the willingness to take part in
this proposal. It is not able to realize in the short run, but it is
possible in the long run, if all sides abandon their unilateral policy
orientation which depends on playing to gain influence in the region
against each other that is called as traditional policy behavior. In
other words, it needs to change traditional policy minds. So it is
only time and mentality problem.
And how real is improvements between Turkey and Armenia in near future?
The normalization process between Yerevan and Ankara began two
years ago has been undermined by Yerevan’s policy to disintegrate
the problems existing between Turkey and Armenia and the problem of
occupation of Karabakh. And also the pressure of influence inside
and outside the Armenia, that is to say, nationalistic approaches
and the impact of diaspora have been restricting the Yerevan’s
independent policy making capability. It is certain that Turkish
sides is willing to make progress by a parallel process to end the
occupation of Azerbaijan territories and to promote a solution for
the problem of Upper-Karabakh, but Armenian side is very tight to
bound itself to nationalistic policies as mentioned above and it may
think that as an illusion by manipulating the process and taking the
support of historical allies from the West can attain its historical
claims and prolong the occupation in Karabakh region. But it is not
possible to maintain occupation in Azerbaijan territories forever by
playing such illusionary foreign support.
Consequently, the fate of the relations between Turkey and Armenia
depends on the sincere of Yerevan and its will to solve the problems
with Turkey including the Karabakh issue. Since Yerevan refrains
itself for the solution of the Karabakh issue, it’s hard to expect any
further development for the relations with Turkey in the near future.
The Karabakh issue is becoming a heavy burden for Armenia which located
between Turkey and Azerbaijan and unless a just solution isn’t found,
Armenia would hardly live in a peaceful environment.
President Gul has again announced in Baku that Ankara accepts the
occupation of the Azerbaijani lands as its own problem. Can we hope
for Turkey’s further efforts in the resolution of this conflict?
President Gul and Prime Minister Erdogan reiterated by several occasion
on Turkish standpoint about the prerequisite of Turkish side that
is the end of occupation could only be main imperative to further
the relations between Ankara and Yerevan. This Turkish position is
undoubtedly clear and shared by Turkish public opinion including
the opposition parties and supported strongly. Therefore, there is
no reason to doubt about Turkish sincerity towards the problems of
Azerbaijan people. We strongly believe that Turkish determination
about the solution of Karabakh problem is to way to attain conclusive
and lasting peace in the South Caucasus. For this purpose Turkey is
willing to make contribution to every opportunity and occasion to
find comprehensive peace for regional issues by cooperation among
the regional and global actors.
Can we expect that Turkey will always take in account Azerbaijani
interests in improvement process with Armenia?
As noted above, Turkish position is undoubtedly clear and this
honest and positive approach which is one of basic principle of
Turkish foreign policy will be pursued consistently. No need to
have suspicion about the Turkish support of Azerbaijan. As long as
Armenian government would not indicate a positive willingness to end
the occupation and determination of the status of Karabakh, Turkey
as promised to Azerbaijan will not approve the protocols nor will it
open the borders.
What are the prospects of the Karabakh settlement?
As we indicated above, to find solutions in regional issues including
Karabakh problem and the historical claims of Armenians toward
Turkey are obstructing to develop multilateral cooperation and mutual
dependency relation in the region.
But internal and external developments which influence Armenia prevent
further development for the normalization process and the solution
of Karabakh problem, particularly nationalistic approach inside and
the pressure of diaspora are main barriers for development in the
line of peace for both issues. So, I am not optimistic for progress
because the uncertainty of positions of global actors such as Russia
and the United States.
From: A. Papazian