ARMENIAN ‘GUERRILLA ATTACK’ IN US CONGRESS MEETS ITS WATERLOO
Hurriyet
Dec 23 2010
Turkey
Despite the backing of outgoing House Speaker Nancy Pelosi,
Armenian-Americans lack the firepower needed to make the House endorse
the Armenian ‘genocide’ bill. AFP photo
Backed by influential politicians and a major media campaign, the
pro-Armenian lobby’s defeat by its conventionally powerful rival in
the “genocide resolution” debate shows both the strengths and limits
of guerrilla tactics in political battles.
In their campaign to get the U.S. House of Representatives to
recognize World War I-era killings of Armenians in the Ottoman Empire
as “genocide,” U.S. Armenians artfully utilized some of the classic
strategies of “guerilla warfare,” capitalizing on the elements of
surprise and mobility to harass a larger, traditional “army” – in
this case, Turkey.
But the strong effort to get such a resolution passed before the
last day of the current House term – and with it, the leadership
of Armenian advocate Nancy Pelosi – was, in the end, unsuccessful,
as the lower house of the U.S. Congress wrapped up its two-year term
Wednesday without taking up the topic.
The nature of many such political, and military, confrontations can
be illuminated by considering the famous words of former U.S. Defense
Secretary Donald Rumsfeld: “You go to war with the army you have,
not the army you might want.” In Rumsfeldian terms, the Armenians
were equipped with the backing of outgoing House Speaker Pelosi,
most of the Democratic big shots in the House and a full-fledge media
campaign, but lacked the strong firepower needed to counter their
conventionally powerful rival.
That the duration between the initiative and the outcome is inversely
proportional to the success of the operation is another key tenet
of guerrilla warfare, and one that proved crucial in this case. The
Armenians decided to launch their “genocide” recognition effort at a
time when their ally, Pelosi, had lost midterm congressional elections
against the Republicans and would cede her post in early 2011. The
latest push was a last-ditch chance to win before the Republican
takeover takes place.
Celebrity-led campaign
The pro-resolution media assault began with a brilliant high-tech
attempt by reality-TV star Kim Kardashian and rock musician
Serj Tankian, both Armenian-American celebrities, to use the
social-networking websites Twitter and Facebook to urge their millions
of followers to demand that Pelosi schedule a vote before the year’s
end on the “genocide resolution” bill pending in the House. Then last
week, the Armenian National Committee of America, the largest and
most influential U.S. Armenian group, structuralized and finalized
the Armenian demand for a House floor vote.
Armenia claims up to 1.5 million Armenians were systematically killed
in 1915 under the rule of the Ottoman Empire. Turkey denies this,
saying that any deaths were the result of civil strife that erupted
when Armenians took up arms for independence in eastern Anatolia.
Initially the Turks were confused; they were unable to grasp
whether this was a serious and well-planned last-minute effort to
get recognition for the Armenian claims of genocide or simply a way
to raise funds for ANCA at the end of the year. The seriousness of
the situation became clear Dec. 17, when ANCA announced that a House
floor vote on the bill could be imminent.
At this point, the disadvantages of the Armenian guerrilla attack
became apparent. Turkey immediately mobilized its allies in Washington,
mainly President Barack Obama’s White House, the State Department and
large defense companies. As regional power Turkey put its full weight
to bear on the issue, the fight began to transform from a guerrilla
attack into conventional warfare, giving Ankara the advantage.
In this way, a vote was averted Dec. 17, and the Armenians began
to lose their strength. This, too, follows the guerrilla-warfare
principle that as the length of time between the guerrilla initiative
and the intended result increases, the guerrillas’ chances of success
fade. Eventually the Armenian effort formally was defeated when
Pelosi declined to schedule a vote on the “genocide” bill Wednesday,
the last day of the outgoing House.
Throughout the later phases of the battle, Turkey and the Obama
administration did play their parts well. Turkey refrained from blatant
threats against the United States, and the White House declined to put
public pressure on Pelosi. The pressure was of the behind-the-scenes
variety. “Obama and his people deliberately stayed away from actions
that would be seen as undermining Pelosi and the House’s sovereignty,”
said one analyst in Washington.
One prime concern within the U.S. administration was that the passage
of the Armenian “genocide” bill might prompt Turkey – already a
self-confident and independently acting power seeking to make its own
policies in the Middle East and confronting Israel – to speed up a
“paradigm shift” in its foreign policy, a fear one U.S. official
privately confirmed.
Reactions from Turkey, Armenia
Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu on Thursday expressed
pleasure that a resolution on recognizing Armenian claims of genocide
had not been included in the official daily agenda of the U.S. House
of Representatives.
“We are pleased that a development that would strike a blow to balances
in the Caucasus and Turkish-American and Turkish-Armenian relations
did not happen in the U.S. Congress. Common sense prevailed yesterday,”
Davutoglu told reporters. “We thank the U.S.
administration for their efforts. This incident once again proved
that assessment of historical incidents by political authorities is
principally wrong.”
The Armenians were furious by the House’s failure to vote, but pledged
to fight back in the new Congress. “Armenian-Americans are angered and
disappointed by the failure of Speaker Pelosi and the House Democratic
leadership to honor their commitment to allow a bipartisan majority
to vote for passage of the Armenian genocide resolution,” said ANCA
chairman Ken Hachikian. “Speaker Pelosi clearly had the majority,
the authority and the opportunity to pass the Armenian genocide
resolution, yet refused to allow a vote on this human-rights measure.”
“I am happy that reason and common sense have prevailed,” said Namik
Tan, Turkey’s ambassador to Washington.
“We now know that a majority of Congress agrees with President
Obama about the importance of the U.S.-Turkey relationship, and
expect this wisdom to carry over into the next Congress so that we
can avoid yet another needless round of bashing our ally Turkey,”
said Lincoln McCurdy, president of the Turkish Coalition of America,
a U.S. Turkish group.
From: A. Papazian