Author: Andres-Papazian

SYRIE : LES PESHMERGAS PATIENTENT A QUELQUES KILOMETRES DE KOBANE

SYRIE

Une delegation de combattants kurdes irakiens s’est rendue jeudi
a Kobane pour discuter de l’entree dans cette ville kurde syrienne,
assiegee par les jihadistes, des dizaines de peshmergas qui patientent
du côte turc de la frontière.

Lourdement armes, ces peshmergas sont rassembles dans un depôt de
Suruc, a une dizaine de km de la frontière syrienne, sous l’etroite
surveillance des forces turques, selon un photographe de l’AFP.

La presse turque estime qu’ils seraient environ 150 venus aider la
milice kurde des Unites de protection du peuple (YPG), qui defend la
ville depuis six semaines face aux jihadistes du groupe Etat islamique
(EI).

Une partie de ces renforts sont arrives jeudi avant l’aube a Suruc,
acclames par des milliers de Kurdes de Turquie masses au bord des
routes. Ils y ont rejoint une première vague de combattants arrivee
mercredi par avion.

Dix de ces peshmergas ont passe quelques heures a Kobane dans la
journee pour discuter avec les YPG de “la formation d’une cellule
d’operation conjointe en vue de faire rentrer les armes dans la ville”,
selon l’Observatoire syrien des droits de l’Homme (OSDH).

L’agence de presse prokurde Firat a indique qu’ils etaient retournes
a Suruc dans la soiree.

Il s’agissait de la première incursion de peshmergas dans la troisième
ville kurde de Syrie, assiegee depuis six semaines et devenue le
symbole de la resistance a l’EI, un groupe extremiste sunnite qui
cherche a elargir son emprise territoriale en Syrie et en Irak.

‘Violation flagrante’ –

Les peshmergas ont ete precedes par des combattants de l’Armee
syrienne libre (ASL), emanation de l’opposition moderee au regime
du president syrien Bachar al-Assad, ont affirme plusieurs sources,
faisant etat de chiffres très disparates.

Le chef d’une unite de l’ASL a declare jeudi depuis Istanbul que
“près de 400” hommes etaient dans Kobane. “Nous attendons d’autres
renforts”, a precise Nizar al-Khatib.

D’autres sources font etat de 50 a 150 rebelles syriens dans Kobane.

Les Kurdes irakiens ont eux aussi prevenu qu’ils pourraient envoyer
plus d’hommes si la situation le reclamait.

Le president de la region autonome du Kurdistan irakien Massoud
Barzani a explique que les kurdes de Kobane lui avaient dit “qu’ils
n’avaient pas besoin de troupes de combat des peshmergas” mais plutôt
“de forces de soutien, et nous avons accede a leur requete”.

Mais, “quand les conditions sur le terrain le requièrent et quand ils
(les YPG) reclament plus de renfort, il y aura moyen de leur envoyer
plus de peshmergas”, a-t-il ajoute.

Autorise par la Turquie sous la pression des Etats-Unis, le passage
de ces renforts, qu’ils soient rebelles syriens ou kurdes irakiens,
a suscite la colère de Damas, qui a denonce “une violation flagrante
de la souverainete syrienne”, après avoir longtemps accuse Ankara de
soutenir les rebelles et les jihadistes qui veulent le renverser.

L’un des objectifs des jihadistes est de s’emparer des quartiers
nord afin de bloquer la voie vers la Turquie -que les renforts
peshmergas sont censes emprunter- et d’isoler Kobane, dont la prise
leur permettrait de contrôler une longue bande de territoire a la
frontière syro-turque.

Dans ce but, l’EI a violemment bombarde jeudi le secteur nord de la
ville, d’après l’OSDH. Les jihadistes ont lance une attaque contre un
quartier du meme secteur qui a ete repoussee par les YPG, a precise
le directeur de l’ONG, Rami Abdel Rahmane.

La coalition internationale anti-jihadistes, qui apporte aux YPG un
soutien aerien depuis le 23 septembre a Kobane, a mene jeudi trois
frappes sur la ville, selon l’OSDH.

120 soldats Norvegiens en Irak –

En Irak voisin, des centaines de soldats irakiens et de combattants
pro-gouvernementaux se preparaient pour lancer un assaut contre la
ville strategique de Baïji, contrôlee par l’EI, selon des officiers.

La prise de Baïji, au nord de Bagdad, pourrait permettre de
securiser la principale raffinerie du pays mais cette offensive
s’annonce difficile pour les forces irakiennes, qui ont deja subi
plusieurs revers dans leurs tentatives de regagner du terrain face
aux jihadistes, notamment dans la province d’Anbar (ouest), contrôle
quasiment entièrement par l’EI.

Le Pentagone a d’ailleurs estime jeudi que des conseillers militaires
americains sont “necessaires” dans cette province, a condition que
Bagdad fournisse des armes aux tribus sunnites.

La Norvège a de son côte annonce l’envoi d’environ 120 soldats a
Bagdad et Erbil, capitale de la region autonome du Kurdistan irakien,
pour contribuer a la formation des troupes irakiennes.

Accuse de nettoyage ethnique et de crimes contre l’Humanite par
l’ONU, l’EI a mis a profit la guerre civile en Syrie et l’instabilite
politique et securitaire en Irak pour s’emparer de larges territoires,
où il fait regner la terreur, y commettant viols, rapts, executions
et crucifixions.

vendredi 31 octobre 2014, Stephane (c)armenews.com

From: A. Papazian

EX-MINISTER’S WIFE GETS MATERNITY BENEFIT OF 20 MILLION DRAMS

Friday,
October
31

‘Hraparak’ writes that Armenia’s Financial Ombudsperson Piruz
Sargsyan, who is the wife of ex-Finance Minister David Sargsyan,
got back to work soon after she had a baby and received a maternity
benefit amounting to 20 million drams, according to the paper.

Piruz Sargsyan told the paper’s correspondent that she indeed received
a large sum, on legal grounds.

“I can say it was not 20 million drams. The size of my benefit
is conditioned by the fact that I receive a high salary, and the
ombudsman’s salary is established by the law. Under the law, the
salary shall exceed threefold the average wage in a bank”, she said.

TODAY, 12:23

Aysor.am

From: A. Papazian

GROWTH INCREASINGLY DETERMINED BY RUSSIA

Business Monitor Online
October 29, 2014 Wednesday

BMI View: Armenia’s economic growth model will become increasingly
interlinked with Russia over the coming years on account of the
former’s accession to the Eurasian Economic Union in 2015 . Although
this will provide a modest short-term boost in trade and structural
funding, Armenian integration with Russia will ultimately prove an
impediment to growth.

Macro Backdrop

We believe that the Armenian economy will continue along a slower
growth trajectory over the coming years due to its increasing
ties with Russia, for which we hold a similary downbeat macro
view. Russia will continue to be Armenia’s largest export partner
for the foreseeable future, having accounted for 22.6% of Armenian
exports in 2013. Furthermore, as of August 2014, Russia accounted for
74% of remittance inflows into Armenia, representing almost 17% of GDP.

Given our sluggish 2015 and 2016 real GDP growth forecasts for Russia
of 1.2% and 2.6% respectively, we fail to see any significant growth
drivers of the Armenian economy. The country’s industrial base remains
both relatively small and run in much the same way as it was in the
Soviet era with declining cost competitiveness, outmoded technology
and a lack of innovation. Moreover, fixed investment stood at almost
half its pre-crisis peak in real terms at year-end 2013, and two of
the country’s four land borders are closed to trade.

That said, we do expect a modest short-term uptick in exports and
inward investment on account of Armenia’s impending induction into
the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU). The EEU is a political and economic
bloc that already comprises Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan, and will
almost certainly include Kyrgyzstan in the near future. Against this
backdrop, we are forecasting headline real GDP growth of 3.1% and 3.0%
in 2015 and 2016 respectively.

Slower Trend Growth Ahead Armenia – Real GDP Growth (% chg y-o-y)

Private Consumption: Private consumption will remain the principal
driver of economic growth in Armenia over the coming quarters,
contributing 3.2 and 3.6 percentage points (pp) to growth in 2015 and
2016 respectively. Consumer spending has represented around 85% of GDP
over the past five years and we see little to suggest this will change,
though stagnating remittance flows from Russia will prevent significant
private consumption growth. Indeed, we are already beginning to see
this trend play out, with private consumption contracting by 2.3%
and 3.4% in year-on-year terms in Q114 and Q214 respectively, in
tandem with waning remittance flows from Russia.

Retreating Russian Remittances Armenia – Remittance Flows From Russia

In addition, the majority of remittances from Russia are transferred
in US dollars rather than roubles (RUB). This means that although we
are forecasting the Armenian dram to continue strengthening against
the rouble, the recent rouble sell-off has sent the USD/RUB exchange
rate to all time highs, which will decrease the local currency value
of Russia-Armenia money transfers.

Another way in which Russia’s economic malaise will hurt Armenian
households is via bank lending. Western sanctions on Russian banks
will continue to push subsidiaries in Armenia repatriate capital to
parent banks in Russia. This will tighten credit conditions and weigh
further on private consumption over the coming quarters.

Government Consumption: Public spending in Armenia will remain
relatively low by regional standards as a percentage of GDP over the
next few years, and as such will have little bearing on the country’s
growth trajectory. Armenia has traditionally run small fiscal deficits
– apart from blips in 2009 and 2010 caused largely by external shocks
– and we believe this trend will continue on account of the country’s
narrow tax base, which is exacerbated by the large informal sector.

Moreover, Armenia has shifted from multilateral credit and aid lines to
international financial markets as a means of government financing over
the past few years. This will mean that the government will continue
to keep spending in check to avoid damaging investor confidence,
which would lead to a spike in borrowing costs.

Consequently we forecast government consumption to contribute just
0.4 pp to headline growth in both 2015 and 2016.

Gross Fixed Capital Formation: Fixed investment in Armenia has
declined over 45% in real terms since its pre-crisis peak in 2008,
and while we expect the sector to return to growth in 2015 following
six consecutive years of contraction, this will by no means signal
an investment boom. Indeed, we are forecasting GFCF to contribute
an average of just 0.3 pp to growth between 2015 and 2017. The most
significant factor driving an uptick in investment will be Armenia’s
accession to the EEU, which will likely result in the country receiving
more structural funding from Russia.

Barren Fixed Investment Outlook Armenia – Fixed Capital Formation

Net Exports: Another benefit of Armenia’s accession to the EEU will
be a short-lived increase in exports. We forecast exports increase
by 7.0% and 5.0% in 2015 and 2016 respectively as Armenian exporters
gain tariff-free access to the markets of Russia, Kazakhstan, Belarus
and eventually Kyrgyzstan. However, we still forecast net exports to
remain a drag on growth over the coming years for two main reasons.

Firstly, the EEU single market will make imports from other member
states more competitive in Armenia, which will negate an improving
export picture in terms of headline real GDP growth, though will
nevertheless boost GDP per capita. Secondly, the continued weakness
in the rouble will improve the purchasing power of Armenians importing
goods from Russia, which will further drive up Armenia’s import bill.

Consequently, we forecast net exports to subtract 0.9 and 1.1 pp from
growth in 2015 and 2016 respectively.

Against this backdrop, we believe that Armenia’s present current
account dynamics will remain in place over the next few years. The
country will continue to run a massive goods and services deficit
of around 22% of GDP that will be counterbalanced to some extent by
large surpluses in the income and current transfers accounts. Armenia
will nonetheless continue to run current account deficits in excess
of 7.0% of GDP, which, combined with a capital and financial account
deficit that has typically tracked the current account, could leave
Armenia exposed to external shocks. However, we do not believe that
Russia will allow a new member of the EEU to succumb to a balance
of payments crisis. As such, we expect Armenia’s external position
to remain precarious, but Russian support will stave off any crisis
that could threaten Armenia’s fragile growth trajectory.

Risks To Outlook

Although Armenia and Azerbaijan have agreed to pursue talks over
the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region, the potential for a military
escalation in the territory remains the key risk to Armenia’s
economic stability after the tensions reached their highest point
since a cease-fire was signed in 1994 in mid-2014. Any direct military
involvement by Armenia in the region would severely limit the country’s
growth prospects for several years.

From: A. Papazian

LE MINISTRE ALLEMAND DES AE EN ARMENIE

ARMENIE

La presse du jour rend compte de la visite de Frank-Walter Steinmeier
a Erevan. Le chef de la diplomatie allemande s’est entretenu avec le
President Sarkissian et le Ministre des AE. Le President Sarkissian a
qualifie l’Allemagne de > et pays ami
pour l’Armenie, se felicitant de ce que depuis l’etablissement des
relations diplomatiques, les deux pays ont conclu une soixantaine
d’accords, ceux-ci constituant une bonne base juridique pour
approfondir les relations bilaterales. Le Ministre allemand a indique
que son pays accordait de l’importance aux relations avec l’Armenie
et que c’est ce message qu’il avait transmis aux autorites armeniennes.

Le Chef de l’Etat armenien et le Ministre allemand ont passe en revue
un large eventail de questions bilaterales, et ont eu un echange sur
l’avenir des relations Armenie-UE, le conflit du HK et les questions
d’actualite regionale. Lors d’une conference de presse conjointe avec
Edward Nalbandian, le Ministre allemand a dit respecter le choix
de l’Armenie en faveur de l’Union economique eurasiatique, tout en
estimant que >, a-t-il dit. Le
Ministre Nalbandian a, quant a lui, note que l’Armenie allait continuer
a faire des efforts avec ses partenaires europeens pour creer une
nouvelle base juridique pour les futurs liens avec l’UE. M.

Steinmeier a egalement declare qu’il avait > auprès de
son homologue armenien la position de son pays sur les pourparlers en
cours entre les puissances occidentales et l’Iran sur le programme
nucleaire de ce dernier. Interroge sur l’etat actuel des relations
armeno-turques, Edward Nalbandian a rappele que l’Armenie avait fait
des gestes de reconciliation a l’egard de la Turquie et que la balle se
trouvait actuellement dans son camp : >. Le
Ministre allemand, pour sa part, a indique que son pays se souvenait du
fait qu’il y a a peu près cent ans, un million et demi d’Armeniens ont
ete massacres et qu’il rappelait les faits historiques aux partenaires
turcs chaque fois qu’il y avait un echange avec eux. M.

Steinmeier a en outre salue le prochain sommet des Presidents d’Armenie
et d’Azerbaïdjan a Paris, a l’initiative du President de la Republique
francaise, disant esperer qu’il permettra d’enregistrer un progrès
dans le processus de negociation.

Extrait de la revue de presse de l’Ambassade de France en Armenie en
date du 24 octobre 2014

vendredi 31 octobre 2014, Stephane (c)armenews.com

From: A. Papazian

168 ZHAM: NEW CHALLENGES FOR NAIRIT

09:00 * 30.10.14

The paper says it has learned from sources that the Ministry of
Energy and Nature Protection has submitted to the Government a package
proposing reforms for the rubber plant Nairit.

The package was due back in August; the submission was later postponed
until September 15-16 and then rescheduled until late-September,
writes the paper.

Commenting on the document’s content, it says further that the two-page
package does not seem to address the plant’s technical re-operation
issue. It proposes instead significant layoffs which will target first
the staff members who have reached the pension age, the paper says,
adding that the plant will thus cut down the employees’ number from
2,246 to 478.

The paper says that a total of will $356,000 will be allocated later
for giving the salaries of the “privileged” and covering the plant’s
maintenance costs.

“It isn’t clear yet where the Government will find the money from. But
that isn’t the only problem. As result of the reforms, Nairit will
lose its main specialists, becoming beheaded,” comments the paper.

Armenian News – Tert.am

From: A. Papazian

PARIS MEETING SOURCE OF BOTH HOPES AND PESSIMISM – KAREN BEKARYAN

14:16 * 30.10.14

Chairman of the European Integration NGO Karen Bekaryan pointed out
positive and negative aspects of the latest Armenian-Azerbaijani-French
presidential meeting in Paris, France, at a meeting with reporters
on Thursday.

The negative aspects of the meeting is that Nagorno-Karabakh was not
represented at the meeting.

“I have always been supportive of this thesis: the negotiations will
not produce any results without Nagorno-Karabakh representatives,
and Paris will not attach any importance to that,” Mr Bekaryan said.

On the other hand, the negative aspect of the Paris meeting for
Azerbaijan concerned its attempts to justify the acts of present
sabotage.

“President Hollande’s aim is to launch a framework agreement as soon
as possible. I consider it a negative aspect as well because it is
unclear,” he said.

The positive is that poor talks are always better that fire.

“It inspires hope that there will not be any further escalation. I
said on one occasion that monopolizing the peace process by one of
the mediators poses a threat. But in this case we can witness the
opposite: the three mediators have, one after another, organized
Armenian-Azerbaijani presidential meetings,” Mr Bekaryan said.

In any case, the French leader’s initiative was aimed at creating
confidence-building mechanisms because the two societies need to be
prepared for peace.

The Paris meeting inspires hopes for further contacts. On the other
hand, there is some pessimism because the process is not showing
any progress.

“A rather low level of confidence should be noted as well,” Mr
Bekaryan said.

Armenian News – Tert.am

From: A. Papazian

“GERMANY LEADS ANTI ARMENIAN POLICY”: ZHIRAYR KOCHARYAN (VIDEO)

13:22 | October 30,2014 | Politics

“Armenians living in Germany do everything possible so that Germans
condemn Armenian Genocide,”- claims professor of Free University
of Berlin, Genocide recognition committee member in Germany Zhirayr
Kocharyan.

“About 40-45 thousands Armenians live in Berlin. Believe, it is very
difficult to fight against 2-3 millions Turks living there, who try to
hinder our actions in every way, but we don’t give up. Our committee
has organized a number of events ahead of the 100th anniversary of
Armenian Genocide, which we don’t want to reveal,”- he informed.

According to the words of Mr. Kocharyan, Germany continues leading anti
Armenian policy, which makes the work of the committee more difficult,
“Recently Foreign Minister of Germany has come to Armenia and in
his speech he tried to bypass the word genocide in every possible
way. Germany continues avoiding the process of condemning the fact.”

What relates to the actions of Armenia, Zhirayr Kocharyan regrets
to say that we haven’t been able to understand who Turks are, “I am
against any agreement. Turks lead deceitful policy. We must represent
our demands in the international courts and not negotiate with Turks.

We must realize that we deal not only with Turkish authorities but
also whole Turkish people, who don’t consider themselves to be guilty.”

From: A. Papazian

TAX EXEMPTION TO HELP CREATE JOBS AND INFRASTRUCTURES IN ARMENIA’S BORDER REGIONS

YEREVAN, October 30. /ARKA/. Granting a tax-exempt status to
companies in border regions of Armenia will help create jobs and
form infrastructures, head of Union of Employers of Armenia Gagik
Makaryan said.

Agriculture will develop and migration will reduce then, he told a
press conference on Wednesday.

New legislation will facilitate business decentralization causing
a multiplier effect when one new business leads to development of
related businesses, Makaryan said.

Certain quotas may be used to prevent big companies from transferring
their businesses to border regions for the sake of tax exemption,
Makaryan said.

Armenia’s parliament passed, in the first reading, the
government-proposed amendments to the tax legislation exempting
companies from VAT, income tax and profit tax in border regions. The
amendments envisage also financial support worth 2 billion drams
to entrepreneurs.

The aim of the amendments is to increase economic activity and
investment appeal in border regions. ($1-411.55 drams). -0-

From: A. Papazian

REVERSING THE BRAIN DRAIN: AGBU HELPS COVER TUITION FEES FOR SYRIAN ARMENIAN STUDENTS IN ARMENIA

SOCIETY | 30.10.14 | 10:50

GOHAR ABRAHAMYAN
ArmeniaNow reporter

It is already the second year that a helping hand will be extended
to Syrian Armenian students who fled their country because of the
conflict and found refuge in Armenia.

As the number of Syrian Armenian students arriving in Armenia
continues to grow, the Armenian General Benevolent Union (AGBU) is
taking measures to ensure that their education does not suffer as a
result of their displacement.

Still in October 2013, Armenia’s Ministries of Diaspora and of
Education and Science, AGBU and the Calouste Gulbenkian Foundation
implemented a program to cover tuition fees for Syrian-Armenian
undergraduate and graduate university students studying in Armenia
in the 2013-14 academic year. A total of 380 Syrian Armenians became
beneficiaries of the program.

Given the successful experience of last year, this year it was decided
to continue assistance to Syrian Armenian students.

AGBU Armenia’s interim director Hovig Eordekian sees this program
as an essential step in reversing the brain drain that continues
to afflict Armenia. He told ArmeniaNow that in 2013 AGBU allocated
more than 52.6 million AMD (about $130,000) for the program, and the
Calouste Gulbenkian Foundation provided the same amount of money. The
Government of Armenia, along with reduced tuitions for Syrian Armenian
students, contributed 15.4 million AMD (about $38,000) to the program.

“Taking into consideration the vitality and urgency of the matter,
the increasing number of Syrian Armenian students in Armenia, the
parties have committed to continue the program at any expense,” said
Eordekian, adding that AGBU and the Calouste Gulbenkian Foundation
made a decision to continue the program in 2014-2015 and 2015-2016,
allocating $130,000 for each academic year.

Diaspora Ministry chief of staff Firdus Zakaryan told ArmeniaNow that
after the start of the war in Syria, some 11,000 Syrian Armenians came
to Armenia. Of them, 500 are students. Even though programs have been
implemented for the integration of Syrian Armenians, in many cases they
find life difficult in Armenia. According to the Ministry official,
the program covering tuition fees for Syrian Armenian students may
be a great help in this sense.

There are 16 public and 35 private universities in Armenia. A number of
universities operate in Armenia under interstate agreements. Annual
tuition fees fluctuate between 200,000 and 800,000 AMD (about
$500-$2,000).

According to Eordekian, given the increasing number of Syrian
Armenian students in Armenia, for the attraction of as many students
as possible, the parties have now agreed to give preference to
undergraduates, who now make up the majority of university applicants.

However, in order to allow as many Syrian Armenian students as possible
to continue their education in Armenia within the budget allocated,
the parties are currently discussing the possibility of covering the
tuition of graduate students who meet certain criteria.

From: A. Papazian

YOUNG ARMENIAN CHESS-PLAYER DECLARED CHAMPION OF EUROPE

12:38 * 30.10.14

Mamikon Gharibyan of Armenia has won the U10 champion’s title in
the European Youth Chess Championship held in Batumi, Georgia from
October 18 to 19.

From: A. Papazian