Turquie/Armenie: Une Statue En Sursis

TURQUIE/ARMENIE: UNE STATUE EN SURSIS

Le Figaro
France
8 mars 2011

Reactions (20) Un tribunal turc a suspendu l’ordre de demolir un
monument erige a la frontière avec l’Armenie dedie a la reconciliation
entre les deux pays, dont le Premier ministre turc Recep Tayyip
Erdogan avait demande la suppression, a rapporte tard hier l’agence
de presse Anatolie.

Le tribunal administratif d’Erzurum a suspendu aujourd’hui la decision
de demolir la statue prise en fevrier par le conseil municipal de Kars
(est) pour “empecher des dommages irremediables” jusqu’a ce que la
justice ait statue sur le fond de l’affaire, a declare a Anatolie Me
Asli Kazan, avocate du sculpteur.

Le monument, haut de 30 m, represente deux figures mais en fait un
seul etre humain, dechire en deux. Commande en 2006, il est reste
inacheve, la nouvelle equipe municipale, membre de l’AKP (Parti de
la justice et du developpement, issu de la mouvance islamiste) de
Recep Tayyip Erdogan, s’opposant aux travaux.

Lors d’une recente visite a Kars, Erdogan a declare que les
constructions non conformes a l’architecture locale devraient etre
demolis. Designant la statue, il avait notamment dit: “Ils ont erige
une monstruosite ici”, ordonnant aux autorites locales de la demolir
dans les plus brefs delais.

Mehmet Aksoy, le sculpteur turc qui a realise la statue, avait estime
impossible que son oeuvre soit deplacee sans etre detruite en raison
des tonnes de ciment utilises pour l’attacher a son socle, situe sur
une colline.

La Turquie et l’Armenie, divisees par la question des massacres
d’Armeniens sous l’empire ottoman (1915-1917), ont signe en octobre
2009 des protocoles de reconciliation. Mais le processus s’est enlise
dans des accusations mutuelles.

From: A. Papazian

Les Soldats Armeniens Sur Le Qui-Vive Dans Les Tranchees

LES SOLDATS ARMENIENS SUR LE QUI-VIVE DANS LES TRANCHEES
Par Pierre Avril

Le Figaro

8 mars 2011
France

REPORTAGE – La ligne de front au Haut-Karabakh est devenue le royaume
des snipers.

De notre envoye special a Agdam.

Durant sept jours, en attendant la relève, l’univers du sergent
Minassian et de son groupe de six soldats se resume a une tranchee
de deux mètres de profondeur, a un poste de guet et a une casemate
chauffee par un brasero. Emmitoufles dans leurs duvets, allonges
sur un bat-flanc, trois jeunes militaires somnolent en attendant de
prendre leur tour de garde. À l’exterieur, les montagnes du Karabakh
se decoupent a l’horizon.

L’ennemi, lui, n’est qu’a une centaine de mètres. Il suffit de
deplacer un billot en bois, bloquant l’ouverture de la meurtrière, pour
apercevoir en face, l’amoncellement de sacs qui signale la presence
de la tranchee azerie. “Ne regardez pas plus de dix secondes”, met
en garde le colonel Alexandre Gregorian, qui dirige la defense du
secteur central du territoire.

“Comme des frères”

Depuis plusieurs mois, “la ligne de frottement”, comme l’appelle
l’etat-major du Karabakh, est devenue le royaume des snipers.

“Desormais, c’est tous les jours que les Azeris violent le
cessez-le-feu. Aujourd’hui, ils ont tire contre un poste voisin. Dès
qu’ils voient un casque ils mettent en joue”, accuse le colonel
Gregorian, avec des consequences plus ou moins graves. Fin janvier,
un soldat armenien a ete grièvement blesse au ventre sur ce meme poste.

Malgre la tension qui règne, le sergent Minassian qualifie le moral
“d’excellent”. “Entre nous, nous sommes comme des frères”, explique
l’adolescent de 19 ans, que l’on s’attendrait plutôt a croiser sur
les bancs du lycee.

Les fondations des tranchees ont ete consolidees, empechant tout
amoncellement d’eau après les pluies. Il en va ainsi sur les quelque
200 kilomètres de la ligne de front qui court du nord au sud du
territoire. L’image ressemble aux cartes postales de la Somme avant
la confrontation de 1916. Cette drôle de guerre immobile peut durer
encore des annees, ou bien degenerer en un conflit de grande ampleur.

“Dans tous les cas, nous sommes prets”, affirme le colonel Gregorian.

“Notre ennemi est reste le meme”

À la difference des affrontements de 1994 où les habitants utilisaient
leurs propres fusils pour defendre les villages, l’armee du Karabakh,
financee par le budget armenien, s’est professionnalisee. Les
soldats du front recoivent une formation prealable de six mois. Ils
sont equipes de fusils d’une portee de deux kilomètres ainsi que de
mitrailleuses. À la difference de ses homologues azeris, qui prennent
directement leurs ordres a Bakou, notre officier superieur est un
enfant du pays, dont il connaît chaque recoin.

Lors de la première guerre, il avait 17 ans et servait tout a la fois
comme agent de renseignement et artilleur. Depuis il s’est largement
nourri des sentiments nationalistes qui ont gagne la population.

“Notre ennemi est reste le meme. Il veut la guerre et est incapable de
comprendre que le Karabakh ne sera jamais azeri. S’il ose declencher
l’attaque, notre reponse sera forte et decisive”, previent le colonel.

À l’arrière du front, le vehicule militaire traverse le village en
ruines de Eivazkhanbeili. Le nom de cette localite, qui etait peuplee
d’Azeris avant la guerre, ne figure pas sur les nouvelles cartes
officielles, comme si ses dirigeants voulaient effacer toute trace,
fût-elle symbolique, d’une ancienne presence azerbaïdjanaise sur
“leur” sol.

Cite fantôme

Dans le cas d’Agdam, distant de dix kilomètres de la ligne de front,
cette logique est portee a son paroxysme. Avant la guerre, cette
cite qui faisait office de carrefour commercial, comptait 100.000
habitants azeris. Aujourd’hui, Agdam a des allures de Pompei. Au
hasard de ses ruines, le visiteur y croise des Armeniens declasses,
qui ont elu domicile dans cette cite fantôme, où ils vivent du trafic
de ferraille. De ce champ de desolation, seuls emergent les minarets
de l’ancienne mosquee. En revanche, la route qui longe Agdam, le long
de la ligne de front, reste strategique. La preuve, sur les terres
adjacentes, les unites de genie du Karabakh creusent a perte de vue
des fosses antichar. En certains endroits, la terre vient a peine
d’etre remuee.

“J’ai appris a ne plus avoir peur”

De sa maison au toit brinquebalant, perche sur le village de Berdashen,
Elmira Svaryan apercoit justement cette plaine a moitie fortifiee,
et, plus au loin, les contours montagneux de la ligne de front. Veuve
d’un soldat armenien qui servait a l’epoque sovietique a Bakou,
cette citoyenne azerie de 61 ans a quitte son pays natal a 16 ans
pour s’installer au Karabakh, malgre l’opposition de ses parents
musulmans. Depuis, elle n’est plus jamais revenue en Azerbaïdjan.

Elle a souffert des bombardements de 1993, connu les abris de fortune
et perdu un de ses fils au combat. Aujourd’hui, elle affirme ne plus se
sentir azerie, mais “armenienne”, attachee a sa terre. “Je ne veux pas
de la guerre, mais j’ai appris a ne plus en avoir peur. Je m’inquiète
surtout pour les enfants.” Assis a ses côtes, son fils Martik, qui
chaque semaine approvisionne en eau la ligne de front, qu’il sillonne
avec son camion, se dit pret a rejoindre ses frères d’armes. “Si nos
dirigeants n’arrivent pas a se mettre d’accord, il y aura la guerre,
et le peuple suivra. Nous ne resterons pas assis a boire notre cafe.”

From: A. Papazian

http://www.lefigaro.fr/international/2011/03/07/01003-20110307ARTFIG00662-les-soldats-armeniens-sur-le-qui-vive-dans-les-tranchees.php

Beyrouth: Kalbakian: Non A L’Intimidation Par Les Armes, Oui Pour La

KALBAKIAN: NON A L’INTIMIDATION PAR LES ARMES, OUI POUR LA PARTICIPATION ET LE DIALOGUE

iLoubnan
8 Mars 2011
Liban

Le 08 mars 2011 Le depute Sebouh Kalbakian a categoriquement rejete
mardi, dans une declaration “l’intimidation par les armes”. Il s’est
en outre prononce en faveur de “la participation et du dialogue”.

M. Kalbakian a egalement appele toutes les forces armeniennes au sein
du 14 Mars, notamment le parti Hanshag, a “elever la voix le 13 Mars
prochain lors de la manifestation nationale”.

“Nous sommes attaches aux armes de la resistance pour lutter contre
l’ennemi israelien (…) mais l’attitude au plan interne de la
Resistance elle-meme, nous surprend”, a-t-il finalement ajoute.

From: A. Papazian

More Turkish Journalists Charged With Plotting

MORE TURKISH JOURNALISTS CHARGED WITH PLOTTING

Agence France Presse
March 7, 2011 Monday 4:06 PM GMT

Seven people including prominent journalists were detaineed at the
weekend for allegedly plotting against the Islamist-rooted Turkish
government, media reports said Monday.

Prosecutor Zekeriya Oz, who is carrying out the probe into the alleged
gang aiming to topple the government, rejected criticisms that the
arrests aimed to intimidate journalists, media reports said Monday.

Oz said the probe was not related to the journalists’ work or ideas
but to “evidence that is impossible to disclose now for confidentiality
of the investigation,” the daily Milliyet reported.

Among those arrested was Nedim Sener, a prominent journalist who last
year received the International Press Institute’s World Press Freedom
Hero award for a book that blamed the security forces for the 2007
murder of ethnic Armenian journalist Hrant Dink.

Ironically, journalist Ahmet Sik, also among the suspects, is credited
with being among the first journalists to report that some generals
were plotting to oust the government, months before the probe began
in June 2007.

Police had raided suspects’ homes early Thursday, drawing condemnation
from the EU and international media watchdogs as well as from Turkish
media.

It was the latest episode in a long-running probe into Ergenekon,
a purported secularist network that allegedly plotted assassinations
and bombings to destabilise the governnment and prompt a military coup.

The suspects include six journalists and an academic. All journalists
are known critics either of the investigation or the police.

Three of the journalists are from the opposition website odatv.com,
whose owner and editors were arrested last month under the same
investigation.

Professor Yalcin Kucuk, a fierce government critic, is also among
those arrested.

The latest arrests are based on some documents obtained from odatv.com,
media reports said.

According to one of those documents, Kucuk shapes the editorial policy
of the website, said Today’s Zaman, a pro-government newspaper.

Thousands of people, including journalists, took to the streets Friday
in Istanbul and Ankara to condemn the arrests. Colleagues of Sener
and Sik also waited in front of the courthouse at the weekend until
the two were sent to jail.

Newspapers on Monday criticised the probe against journalists,
emphasising that they were questioned mainly on their journalistic
work.

Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan rejected any responsibility
Thursday, voicing hope the judiciary would “complete the process
speedily.”

But President Abdullah Gul said he was “worried” about the latest
developments as they cast a pall over Turkey’s reputation overseas.

Critics charge the investigation, launched in 2007, has degenerated
into a campaign to bully critical media and the opposition.

From: A. Papazian

ANKARA: Anti-Terror Police Foil Alleged Plot To Kill Christian Cleri

ANTI-TERROR POLICE FOIL ALLEGED PLOT TO KILL CHRISTIAN CLERIC IN ISTANBUL

Hurriyet
March 7 2011
Turkey

Istanbul police’s anti-terror unit apprehended two suspects accused
of plotting to assassinate a priest in the city’s Fatih district,
Dogan news agency, or DHA, reported Saturday.

Law enforcement officers alleged that a suspect who was identified
only as E.T., and who was reported to be under 18 years of age, offered
18-year-old Okan G. 50 Turkish Liras to kill the unnamed priest.

Police raided the suspects’ homes in Istanbul’s Gaziosmanpasa district
and detained the pair, seizing two guns in the process. Officers later
revealed that one of the guns could be altered to shoot metal balls.

The suspects were later taken for questioning at the Istanbul Police
Department on Vatan Avenue in the Fatih district.

The plot comes after several Christian figures were killed in Turkey
between 2006 and 2010. Andrea Santoro, a Catholic priest stationed in
the Black Sea province of Trabzon, was shot and killed by a 16-year-old
youth while praying at the city’s Santa Maria Church. One year later,
the editor-in-chief of the bilingual weekly Agos, Armenian-Turkish
journalist Hrant Dink, was allegedly killed by Ogun Samast, who later
confessed to the crime.

In April 2007, Christian missionaries Necati Aydin, Ugur Yuksel
and German citizen Tilmann Geske were reportedly tortured before
being murdered at the Zirve Publishing House in the eastern province
of Malatya.

Last year, Italian Bishop Luigi Padovese, the vicar apostolic of
Anatolia in Turkey, was allegedly murdered by his private driver in
the southern district of Iskenderun.

From: A. Papazian

Armenian Central Bank Raises Rates Further As Inflation Intensifies

ARMENIAN CENTRAL BANK RAISES RATES FURTHER AS INFLATION INTENSIFIES
BYLINE: Venla Sipila

Global Insight
March 7, 2011

The Central Bank of Armenia (CBA) has increased its refinancing
interest rate by 50 basis points, Reuters reports. This decision
followed a similar move taken in February, and brought the policy
rate to 8.25%. This further monetary tightening closely followed
the publication of February inflation data by the Armenian National
Statistical Service, which showed that consumer prices in the month
soared by 12.4% year-on-year (y/y), following an increase of 10.6% y/y
in January. In month-on-month (m/m) comparison, prices rose by 1.9%,
having now advanced by 4.8% during the first two months of the year.

As expected, this rapid gain in consumer prices can mainly be traced
back to increases in the cost of food; this surged by 18.8% y/y in
February, bringing the cumulative gain since the beginning of the
year to 7.0%. Indeed, the CBA also identified high global food and
commodity prices for the intense inflation pressures, noting that the
contribution of food on overall consumer price inflation in February
stood at around 10.1 percentage points. Inflation substantially
exceeds the CBA’s target range of 4.5% with a fluctuation band of
1.5 percentage points either side, and the central bank outlined
further gradual tightening of monetary policy in the coming months,
in order to bring the inflation rate back within the target range in
the second half of this year.

Significance:The CBA’s monetary policy has now clearly entered
a new cycle, tightening from February, following eight months of
stable rates. The central bank seems to suggest that the extremely
high food and commodity prices have started to have some impact on
inflation expectations as well, thus reaching beyond their cost-side
inflationary effects. On the other hand, given Armenia’s still
relatively undeveloped financial environment, the key function of the
policy rates is to signal the monetary authorities’ own inflation
expectations. Pressures from commodity prices are likely to remain
considerable in the near term. However, Russia has agreed to keep its
gas prices constant in 2011, and this brightens the inflation outlook
somewhat. Fearful of social unrest as a result of rising gas prices,
ArmRosGazprom, the Armenian gas distributor, had already vowed to keep
retail prices constant, even if Russian import prices have increased
from April, as planned before.

From: A. Papazian

Southern Nevada Will Miss Lincy Foundation’s Generosity

SOUTHERN NEVADA WILL MISS LINCY FOUNDATION’S GENEROSITY
Jane Ann Morrison

Las Vegas Review-Journal (Nevada)
March 7, 2011 Monday

Las Vegas’ nonprofit world is in a state of unease over news the Lincy
Foundation, Kirk Kerkorian’s charitable foundation, which gives out
hundreds of millions each year, is going to give all its assets to
UCLA to create the Dream Fund.

The Lincy Foundation has an estimated $200 million in assets and,
pending government approval, all that will be transferred to the UCLA
Foundation. While that’s great news for UCLA, the ripple effect on
Las Vegas charities and nonprofits may not be so cheery.

The Lincy Foundation has been generous with our city. In 2008,
the foundation donated more than $29 million to local nonprofits
and charities. Those operations, already struggling with reduced
donations because of the economy, cannot count on that generosity
being sustained in the future.

That doesn’t necessarily mean Las Vegas charities will be entirely
sliced out of the pie, because, according to UCLA Chancellor Gene
Block, while the Dream Fund will be used for student support,
research and academic programs at UCLA, “the Dream Fund also will
support charitable causes beyond our campus, particularly those that
address large societal concerns.”

Of the $200 million in assets, the Dream Fund will commit half to UCLA
and half to other charitable causes, so Las Vegas nonprofits will have
a crack at obtaining grants. But there will be scads of competition.

I first wrote about Kerkorian’s style of giving for a Thanksgiving
column in 2003, when he was majority stockholder of what is now MGM
Resorts International. He gave away $350 million in 2002.

What was surprising was the diversity of his giving. Sure, his
homeland, Armenia, received plenty – $39 million with another $106
million pledged. But his donations were wide-ranging, crossing racial
and religious lines and heading all over the world.

Since its founding in 1989, the foundation has donated more than $1.1
billion to various causes.

Even for a billionaire, his generosity was impressive.

Then-foundation President James Aljian said Kerkorian requested that
his name not be used on anything his money built. He even named his
foundation after his daughters, Linda and Tracy, not himself.

The Internal Revenue Service 990 Forms showed that in 2008, the most
recent year available on Guidestar, the foundation’s contributions to
Las Vegas charities and nonprofits were: After-School All Stars Las
Vegas, $100,000; Andre Agassi Charitable Foundation, $1.1 million; Big
Brothers/Big Sisters of Southern Nevada, $100,000; Catholic Charities
of Southern Nevada, $10,000; Clark County Public Education Foundation,
$50,000; Habitat for Humanity Las Vegas, $100,000; Injured Police
Officers Fund, $10,000; Nathan Adelson Hospice, $600,000; Nevada Cancer
Institute, $14.9 million; Opportunity Village, $200,000; Salvation Army
Clark County, $60,000; Teach for America, $1 million; Three Square, $2
million; United Way of Southern Nevada, $1 million; UNLV Foundation,
$8 million; and VT Marty Hennessy Jr. Tennis Foundation, $10,000. He
pledged another $9 million to the Clark County School District.

The Lincy Foundation will no longer exist, but the Lincy Institute
at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, will remain.

The Lincy Institute was created with a $14 million gift from the
foundation and addresses issues that impact Nevada through coordinated
research and social outreach programs, particularly in education
and health.

Kerkorian was a strong supporter of the Nevada Cancer Institute
from the very beginning, said Hilarie Grey, vice president of
communications. “They’ve been a tremendous partner – not just to
us, but for so many nonprofits and educational institutions. Their
generosity and support will be deeply missed throughout the community.”

Perhaps the UCLA Foundation will continue to send some of that Dream
Fund money to Las Vegas.

But it probably won’t be any $29 million a year. That really would
be a dream.

From: A. Papazian

Baku Notes Positive Changes In Yerevan’S Position On Nagorno-Karabak

BAKU NOTES POSITIVE CHANGES IN YEREVAN’S POSITION ON NAGORNO-KARABAKH

Interfax
March 7, 2011 Monday 6:02 PM MSK
Russia

Baku notes positive changes in Yerevan’s position on Nagorno-Karabakh
Yerevan demonstrated certain positive changes in its position on
Nagorno-Karabakh at a meeting of the Azeri, Russian and Armenian
presidents in Sochi on March 5, the director of the foreign affairs
department of the Azeri presidential administration, Novruz Mamedov,
told journalists on Monday.

“On the whole, speaking about this meeting, it is necessary to note
that it differed to a certain degree, although not much, from the
position the Armenian side pursued in the negotiating process for
around a year and a half,” he said.

“Since the position followed by the Armenian side in the negotiating
process until recently was completely destructive, this difference,
which can be assessed positively at least a little bit, is seen
clearly today,” he said.

Mamedov said he did not rule out that Armenia could have agreed
to change its position to a certain extent due to the activity
displayed by the Russian president in the search for a solution to
the Nagorno-Karabakh problem.

“I think that these several meetings themselves, arranged in the past
18 months with the personal participation of the president of Russia,
one of the countries chairing [the Minsk Group of the Organization
for Security and Co-operation in Europe], serve as an important
factor to a certain extent. If the president of such a vast state
and a co-chair country maintains close ties with the presidents of
the other two states and holds such a large number of meetings with
them, but fails to achieve any results, it could mean something. I
think that it played a role as well. That is why I view this meeting
as different from previous meetings to a certain degree,” he said.

Baku notes positive changes in Yerevan’s position on Nagorno-Karabakh
(Part 2)

BAKU. March 7

Baku notes positive changes in Yerevan’s position on Nagorno-Karabakh
(Part 2) Yerevan demonstrated certain positive changes in its position
on Nagorno-Karabakh at a meeting of the Azeri, Russian and Armenian
presidents in Sochi on March 5, the director of the foreign affairs
department of the Azeri presidential administration, Novruz Mamedov,
told journalists on Monday.

“On the whole, speaking about this meeting, it is necessary to note
that it differed to a certain degree, although not much, from the
position the Armenian side pursued in the negotiating process for
around a year and a half,” he said.

“Since the position followed by the Armenian side in the negotiating
process until recently was completely destructive, this difference,
which can be assessed positively at least a little bit, is seen
clearly today,” he said.

Mamedov said he did not rule out that Armenia could have agreed
to change its position to a certain extent due to the activity
displayed by the Russian president in the search for a solution to
the Nagorno-Karabakh problem.

“I think that these several meetings themselves, arranged in the past
18 months with the personal participation of the president of Russia,
one of the countries chairing [the Minsk Group of the Organization
for Security and Co-operation in Europe], serve as an important
factor to a certain extent. If the president of such a vast state
and a co-chair country maintains close ties with the presidents of
the other two states and holds such a large number of meetings with
them, but fails to achieve any results, it could mean something. I
think that it played a role as well. That is why I view this meeting
as different from previous meetings to a certain degree,” he said.

In Sochi, the presidents adopted one more statement addressing a swap
of prisoners of war and their return home, as well as investigations
involving the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairmen into possible incidents
on the border separating the Azeri and Armenian armed forces,
Mamedov said.

However, some Armenian media companies have interpreted this statement
incorrectly, he said.

“The statement does not and cannot include any peace guarantee
obligations on the part of Azerbaijan. A non-military solution, or,
in other words, a peace guarantee, is possible only after the full
liberation of our lands. I think that this is the categorical position
of the president of Azerbaijan,” Mamedov said.

Commenting on the prospects for the future talks on Nagorno-Karabakh,
the Azeri official said that “by summer we will be able to see what
direction these processes will take.”

From: A. Papazian

Georgia Tops South Caucasus Countries In WEF Travel And Tourism Comp

GEORGIA TOPS SOUTH CAUCASUS COUNTRIES IN WEF TRAVEL AND TOURISM COMPETITIVENESS INDEX

Xinhua General News Service
March 7, 2011 Monday 2:10 PM EST
China

Georgia has topped the three South Caucasus countries in the 2011
World Economic Forum (WEF) index of Travel and Tourism Competitiveness,
it was reported on Monday.

Of the 139 countries and regions surveyed and ranked by the World
Economic Forum, Georgia has ranked 73rd this year, unchanged from
the country’s 2009 ranking.

Azerbaijan has dropped seven positions from its 2009 ranking to
land 83rd this year, while Armenia has moved up one place to rank
90th overall.

The three South Caucasus countries have scored off 3.98, 3.85 and
3.77 points, respectively.

The overall most competitive country in the world for travel and
tourism is Switzerland, with a score of 5.68 points.

The African country of Chad is at the bottom of the 139 countries
and regions surveyed and ranked by the WEF. It has scored 2.56 points.

This year’s index list is the fourth edition of the WEF Travel and
Tourism Competitiveness Report. The report was released by the forum
at the Global Tourism Forum 2011 held in Andorra.

From: A. Papazian

Jane’s: Azerbaijan Attack On Karabakh Unlikely — For Now

JANE’S: AZERBAIJAN ATTACK ON KARABAKH UNLIKELY — FOR NOW
by Joshua Kucera

EurasiaNet

March 8 2011
NY

The Bug PitArmeniaAzerbaijanNagorno Karabakh The Armenia-Azerbaijan
military balance is getting a lot of scrutiny these days, and Jane’s
Intelligence Review has just published a good reported analysis
(subscription required) by Emil Sanamyan that has a lot of interesting
points. Among them:

— “Upon closer inspection, Azerbaijan’s purported ‘military budget’
incorporates not just the paramilitary forces outside the Ministry of
Defence but also state prosecutors and even courts, with an apparent
intention to inflate the overall figure for propaganda effect.”

— “The combined Armenian and Nagorno-Karabakh defence army total
is estimated by Jane’s to be around 300 T-72s, considerably larger
than the 110 officially declared by Yerevan. Azerbaijan is thought to
maintain around 350 to 400 T-72s… Baku has declared only 217 tanks,
although it it likely that this figure was designed to appear under
the Conventional Forces in Europe (CFE) treaty ceiling of 220.”

— “[F]or now it is the Azerbaijani UAV capability that provides the
most immediate potential for escalation. Armenian defence officials
have confirmed that Azerbaijan has begun flying its UAVs close to
the Line of Contact that separates the two sides, with several such
flights reported since 2008. In mid-2010, two Armenian Su-25s were
dispatched to try to intercept these UAV flights.”

— “Armenian officials also claim that Armenia has begun to
domestically produce UAVs and that more than a dozen have already
entered service, with the aim of co-ordinating artillery fire. These
have yet to be seen publicly.”

But he concluded that, in the short term at least, war was unlikely.

That’s because Azerbaijan’s ability to strike Armenian targets from a
distance — either from the air or with artillery — is still too weak
to overwhelm Armenians’ defenses. The Armenian/Karabakh air defense
systems are relatively good (they have S-300s, including possibly
in Karabakh) and Azerbaijan has a fairly small number of ground
attack aircraft (according to Jane’s, 19 Su-25s) which would quickly
be depleted by the Armenians’ air defense. Azerbaijan’s artillery,
which also might be used to take out air defenses, would be vulnerable
to Armenian artillery counterattacks, as the two sides are somewhat
evenly matched on that front. So at this point, Sanamyan says, it’s
too risky for Azerbaijan to attack. For now.

From: A. Papazian

http://www.eurasianet.org/node/63030