Institute for War and Peace Reporting IWPR, UK
CAUCASUS REPORTING SERVICE, No. 610
September 28, 2011
KARABAKH CLAIMS COUP WITH DRONE PLANE HIT
Azerbaijan denies it sent unmanned aircraft, but incident focuses
attention on defence buildup in frozen conflict.
By Lusine Musaelyan, Gayane Abrahamyan, Jasur Sumerenli
Officials in Nagorny Karabakh are delighted with the shooting down of
a pilotless plane, saying it shows their military could fend off any
potential attack from Azerbaijan.
Some analysts in Armenia, however, are concerned that the use of
aerial drones shows that Azerbaijan is upgrading its defence systems
and is not afraid to use them.
In Azerbaijan itself, defence minister spokesman Eldar Sabiroglu
denied that the pilotless craft belonged to his country.
In both Karabakh – which claimed independence from Azerbaijan when the
Soviet Union collapsed – and in Armenia, there was no doubt that the
drone that came down near the village of Vazgenashen on September 12
was Azerbaijani. The plane was hit about ten kilometres inside the
`line of control’ which separates Karabakh and Azerbaijani forces.
Davit Babayan, spokesman for president of Karabakh, underscored the
significance of downing the drone.
`If our army was somewhat weaker, than our enemy would have attacked
and launched widespread operations long ago,’ he said.
Vitaly Balasanyan, a former general who now sits in Karabakh’s
parliament, said unidentified aircraft have frequently entered the
territory’s airspace.
`Because our anti-aircraft defences are very strong, we have always
been able to fix the location of any object and destroy it if
necessary,’ he said.
Warfare between Armenian forces in Karabakh and the Azerbaijani
military ended with a ceasefire in 1994, leaving the Armenians in full
control of the territory and adjoining areas, and hundreds of
thousands of civilians displaced. A final peace deal has proved
elusive since the sides cannot agree on possible terms. Although the
ceasefire has largely held, there are frequent minor clashes along the
`line of control’.
Officials in Karabakh refused to give details of how the drone was
brought down, or how many others have been knocked out of the sky in
the past.
Video footage released by the Karabakh military showed wreckage from
the drone scattered on the ground. The lack of obvious identification
marks led to some speculation in the Turkish media, in particular,
that the craft was not Azerbaijani.
Mehman Aliyev, editor-in-chief of the Turan news agency in Azerbaijan,
questioned why defence officials in Baku could not just admit they had
lost an aircraft. The suggestion that it might belong to another state
was more troubling, he said, as that would imply that `unidentified
craft are flying along the front line, and that our air defences and
armed forces are doing a poor job’.
Aliyev discounted rumours that the drone had been sent from a third
country, explaining that `because of its operating radius, the
possibility of it belonging to Turkey or Russia is approximately
zero’.
Azerbaijan’s oil wealth has paid for a massive increase in defence
spending, with the armed forces budget now at 3.3 billion US dollars a
year. According to Doktrina, an investigative journalism centre, much
of the increased spend has gone on new weapons systems, including
drone planes. Doktrina’s research indicated that Azerbaijan now has 30
pilotless aircraft, compared with Armenia’s six.
A source in Azerbaijan’s defence ministry told IWPR that the country
had acquired several Israeli-made Hermes 450 drones. `These are
high-end aircraft that can fulfill any role,’ he said.
Neither Armenia nor Karabakh can hope to compete with Baku’s spending
power. But David Jamalyan, who sits on a civilian council attached to
Armenia’s defence ministry, said his country was not trying to match
Azerbaijan’s expenditure, and was instead focusing on ways of
repelling specific threats.
`If we do not attempt to act in symmetry with Azerbaijan, if for
example we don’t buy as many tanks because we don’t have the resources
to do so, then we’re taking the asymmetrical route, which means buying
those weapons that are capable of neutralising Azerbaijan’s
quantitative advantage,’ he said.
In Karabakh, former general Balasanyan made the same point, arguing
that since Armenian forces had won a war against the technically
superior Azerbaijani forces, `we would secure victory now, since we
have a regular army, we have all the technology, and [together with
Armenia] we have two separate states’.
Not all Armenians in Karabakh are so sanguine about the prospect of an
accelerating defence programme in Azerbaijan.
`The Azerbaijani government makes no secret of its desire to launch a
war,’ Masis Mayilyan, a former foreign minister turned political
analyst, said. `Belligerent statements are accompanied by arms
acquisitions, with spending accounting for 20 per cent of the
government budget. Activity by snipers and overflights by spy planes
are manifestations of this policy,’ he said.
* Lusine Musaelyan is a correspondent for Radio Liberty in Nagorny
Karabakh. Gayane Abrahamyan is a correspondent for Armenianow in
Yerevan. Jasur Sumerenli is defence affairs reporter for the Ayna and
Zerkalo newspapers in Azerbaijan.
From: A. Papazian