After the first few days, drone strikes were primarily directed at vehicles, facilities and artillery behind or approaching the frontline.
The following is a non-comprehensive list of Armenian vehicles that have been shown to be damaged, destroyed or captured. In aggregate, they amount to the loss of around five armored or mechanized battalions.
- 144 T-72A and T-72B main battle tanks
- 35 BMP-1 and -2 infantry fighting vehicles
- 19 MT-LB tracked APCs, some with heavy weapons
- 310 trucks, jeeps and miscellaneous soft-skinned vehicles
Armenian artillery losses appear equally staggering as of Oct. 22, equivalent to the destruction of six or seven artillery battalions in aggregate:
- 49 122- and 152-millimeter towed howitzers and field guns
- 12 2S1 and 2S3 armored self-propelled howitzers
- 52 BM-21 Grad 122-millimeter multiple rocket launchers
- 3 BM-30 and WM-80 heavy multiple rocket launchers
Starting around mid-October, drone footage showed a new emphasis on hitting infantry positions, presumably near the frontline.
Meanwhile, since the beginning of hostilities, the destruction or capture of the following Azerbaijani armored vehicles were recorded, mostly using anti-tank guided missiles, artillery and rocket propelled grenades:
- 20 T-72A and AV main battle tanks
- 2 T-90S main battle tanks
- 17 BMP-1, -2 and -3 tracked infantry fighting vehicles
- 5 BTRA-82A wheeled personnel carriers
There are several important caveats to bear in mind when considering these numbers.
First, because Armenian forces aren’t operating combat drones, they inevitably are recording less imagery of vehicles getting destroyed.
Furthermore, as the Bayraktar uses small 20-pound MAM-C and 50-pound MAM-L munitions (compared to the 105-110 pound U.S. Hellfire anti-tank missile), strikes on tanks may not always result in destruction or heavy damage.
Thus some of the targeted vehicles may be restored into operational condition—unless they are captured by advancing ground forces.
It’s fair to conclude then that open sources don’t give a clear picture of Azerbaijani vehicle losses. But they do suggest that Armenian vehicle and artillery losses to air attacks alone are extremely heavy.
How many soldiers have died in the fighting so far?
As of October 22, the Armenian government has named over 900 soldiers dead.
Baku has not reported Azerbaijani casualties, though there’s reason to believe its personnel losses are also heavy. Assaulting mountainous fortifications historically has proven a costly endeavor even when successful, and several Armenian post-battle videos (not shared here) depict dozens of dead in distinct individual engagements.
On Oct. 22, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated at the Valdia Discussion Club that his data suggested both sides had suffered over 2,000 dead in the war, with the combined death toll approaching 5,000.
How many drones has Azerbaijan lost?
Armenian forces might be able to weather the drone onslaught if they were inflicting unsustainable attrition on Azerbaijan’s drone fleet, a possibility discussed in this earlier article by my colleague Paul Iddon.
Indeed, the Bayraktar and Harop cost in the low millions of dollars, more than the market value of the mostly dated Soviet military vehicles they are destroying.
But the evidence of heavy drone losses remains unpersuasive. Armenia claims to have shot down dozens of drones including 10 TB2s. However, there is only visual confirmation of the destruction or capture of 17 Azerbaijani drones.
Furthermore, drones vary greatly in size, cost and capability. Only nine of the lost drones can be visually identified:
- 7 Harop loitering munitions (shot down before they could strike their target)
- 1 Orbiter 1K loitering munition
- 1 Bayraktar TB2
Notably, the first imagery confirming the loss of a TB2 in this conflict emerged on October 19. The video below shows the drone’s recovered Canadian-built WESCAM optical sensor turret.