168: Middle East. the birth of a new “axis”. Saudi Arabia, Turkey and P

On August 7, Turkish President Recep Erdogan, Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif signed a “collective defense agreement” aimed at “strengthening collective deterrence of any form of aggression” at a ceremony in Mecca, which stipulates that an armed attack on any of the three states will be considered an attack on all.

However, the specific obligations of the parties have not yet been revealed. Moreover, a certain analogy with the infamous Article 5 of the NATO treaty can be observed.  The subtlety of the situation is that Pakistan is known to have nuclear weapons.  The agreement also provides for the development of defense cooperation between the three states in all directions, it is noted in the joint statement adopted as a result of the meeting of the leaders of the three countries. In addition to the location of the signing of the agreement, Friday, a special day of collective prayer for Muslims, also seems symbolic.

The complex work on the agreement has been going on for more than a year, relying on previously reached documents and informal agreements meant to regulate and restore Turkish-Saudi understanding. To remind, in 2011, Recep Erdogan supported the mass protests, which became known as the “Arab Spring”, while Riyadh considered the speeches covering many countries of the Middle East and North Africa as a threat to the monarchical government system. In 2015-2016, Saudi Arabia and the UAE joined forces to counter Turkey in Libya. They also supported President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, who came to power in Egypt as a result of a military coup, whom Erdogan strongly criticized at first.

However, earlier mistrust in Turkish-Saudi (as well as Turkish-Egyptian) relations has been gradually overcome in recent years, bolstered by major defense contracts.  Closer ties have been established between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, which signed a mutual defense agreement in September 2025. In March 2026, the heads of the foreign ministries of Turkey, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Egypt were holding talks on the formation of a joint system of Collective Security, which was more than required due to the current trends in the Middle East crisis.

It seems that each of the signatory states can be considered individually as an ally of the US, even if it is not ready to listen to the infamous “Uncle Sam” on every occasion.  However, it can be safely argued that the “Mecca Agreement” is the result of diplomatic efforts by the three leading states of the Islamic world, in the context of the visible degradation of both the American military presence in the Middle East and strategic planning in general.

For what it’s worth, even just the aggression against Iran, which forced Tehran to respond to the United States and Israel, also hitting various facilities in the territory of a number of Arab monarchies that are part of the Cooperation Council of the Arab States of the Persian Gulf. It is clearly not accidental that some ill-wishers tried to give a unique interpretation to the “Mecca Agreement”, starting to make judgments about the alliance of the leading Sunni states, which is allegedly aimed at “containment” of Shiite Iran. However, this is unlikely to be the case. Ankara has stated that the agreement is exclusively defensive in nature, is not directed against any specific state and is open to other countries in the region to join.

It can be assumed that, first of all, we are talking about the Arab Republic of Egypt. Erdogan and al-Sisi align their positions with the overall concern of Israel’s war in Gaza, which the United Nations has recognized as genocide, as well as the periodic attacks by ISIS on neighboring countries. Moreover, In February 2026, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced “the intention to create its own axis of states confronting the two axes of radical Islam. These states stand against the radical Shiite axis, which we have already dealt a significant blow, and against the emerging radical Sunni axis. In the future…we will create a whole system, a hexagon of peculiar alliances, which includes India, Arab countries, African states, Greece and Cyprus.

In Israel, the Turkish-Saudi-Pakistani agreement is perceived as a real threat to the panorama of consistently deteriorating relations with Ankara.. Neither Pakistan nor Saudi Arabia, despite some behind-the-scenes moves, recognize the “Zionist regime” and are unlikely to do so in the foreseeable future, despite attempts by the White House and foreign lobbyists to advance the so-called “Abraham Accords” aimed at lifting Israel out of regional isolation.

It should be assumed that the agreements formed in Mecca will contribute to close political-diplomatic coordination between Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, as well as give additional impetus to trilateral military-technical measures, including the expansion of the possibility of arms exports, which is especially important for Turkey.

Pakistan is the only state in the Muslim world that has nuclear weapons, and it is no secret that both Riyadh and Ankara are actively interested in the relevant technologies. Energy-rich Saudi Arabia is the only G20 Arab country to host Mecca and Medina, the traditional pilgrimage sites for Muslims from around the world.

The Republic of Turkey, located in Asia and Europe at the same time, maintains the second largest army among NATO countries and has its own voice within the Alliance, which may also be of interest to partners. Thus, each of the signatories has its own special advantages, which advantageously distinguishes the new defense alliance from such organizations as the League of Arab States, the above-mentioned Cooperation Council of the Arab States of the Gulf, or even the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, which at every step demonstrate their, to say the least, insufficient efficiency.

As an Al-Jazeera correspondent stated in a report from the scene of events in Mecca, the agreement “essentially unites the three largest Muslim countries, heralding the beginning of a different security architecture in the Middle East»: Perhaps, it is still premature to talk about “unification”, as the agreement has yet to pass the test of time.  Opponents are clearly not going to sit idly by, and previous disagreements over one or another conflict plot may once again enter the actual agenda. However, “The Mecca Agreement” testifies to the regional powers’ desire to form their own system of collective securityto the long-term escalation of instability in the Middle East and the irretrievable past of American hegemony.

Translation by Zhanna Avetisyan

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